Hollywood42

Carlos Carrasco 2020 Outlook

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Carrasco is an interesting player heading into 2020. Coming off of 5 really strong seasons from 2014-2018, he struggled starting off in 2019. He was eventually diagnosed with leukemia, likely explaining a lot of his on-field struggles. Heroically, he returned to the big-league mound in September as a reliever, giving up 11 runs over 15 innings. This offseason, there hasn't been much news I've seen on him. Leukemia is a very real, scary thing, and of course makes Carrasco a risky investment this year should the disease return. And if he's healthy, do the Indians transition him back to a starter, or keep him in the bullpen? How much of his poor 2019 metrics (bottom 2nd percentile in exit velo, bottom 1 percentile in hard hit percentage) can be attributed to his struggles with illness? He did still have great curveball spin (93rd percentile), and above average K% (78th percentile). What do you make of Carrasco in 2020 and beyond?

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11 hours ago, Hollywood42 said:

Carrasco is an interesting player heading into 2020. Coming off of 5 really strong seasons from 2014-2018, he struggled starting off in 2019. He was eventually diagnosed with leukemia, likely explaining a lot of his on-field struggles. Heroically, he returned to the big-league mound in September as a reliever, giving up 11 runs over 15 innings. This offseason, there hasn't been much news I've seen on him. Leukemia is a very real, scary thing, and of course makes Carrasco a risky investment this year should the disease return. And if he's healthy, do the Indians transition him back to a starter, or keep him in the bullpen? How much of his poor 2019 metrics (bottom 2nd percentile in exit velo, bottom 1 percentile in hard hit percentage) can be attributed to his struggles with illness? He did still have great curveball spin (93rd percentile), and above average K% (78th percentile). What do you make of Carrasco in 2020 and beyond?

I'm definitely giving him a pass for 2019...That's some heavy stuff to deal with 

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He had good stuff when he came back. I'll be in if the price is cheap which I suspect it will be. He was one of my favorite players entering 2019.

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He's someone I'd be willing to gamble on later in the draft.  Bieber and Clevinger are obviously locked into the rotation. Then it's probably Carrasco, Civale, Plesac and Plutko  jockeying for the remaining 3 spots (and prospect Triston Mckenzie probably cracks the rotation at some point in 2020). Plutko is garbage and seems like more of your classic swing man so I would think they'll give Carrasco every opportunity to earn a spot in the rotation. Leukemia is no joke so expectations have to be in check but the talent and track record is something I'd be willing to roll the dice with later in the draft. Definitely someone everyone should be monitoring in spring training to see how this plays out.

Edited by fletch44

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I'm not worried about the diagnosis. He should be fine. CML is treatable and should be no lingering physical effects. I'll take the "oh my God he had leukemia" discount fantasy players are giving him. The risk is that he is a pitcher, not that he had leukemia. 

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On 1/15/2020 at 9:51 AM, bluefrogguy said:

I'm not worried about the diagnosis. He should be fine. CML is treatable and should be no lingering physical effects. I'll take the "oh my God he had leukemia" discount fantasy players are giving him. The risk is that he is a pitcher, not that he had leukemia. 

is he really coming at a discount when you see other sp ranked around him? lynn, wheeler, hendricks, montas? all have some questions

i guess his k upside and consistent track record make him a little more appealing.

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NFBC #106 isn't that much of a discount.  His low of #162 is, so it's a wait and see how this unfolds and where he turns up in each individual draft.  I'd pass on Carrasco for Wheeler/Fried/Hendricks who are currently going later, but I'd take him over Urias/Boyd/Minor, so that puts me buying around #145.

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Is there any worry that Carrasco will get his innings all as a starter? Anything out there suggesting he wouldn't be a normal starter expecting near 200 IP? As long as hes a starter gearing up for 200 IP... I want IN on Carlos. 

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2 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

Is there any worry that Carrasco will get his innings all as a starter? Anything out there suggesting he wouldn't be a normal starter expecting near 200 IP? As long as hes a starter gearing up for 200 IP... I want IN on Carlos. 

I doubt he’s anything other than a SP.  The question is how many IP is he capable of?  He’s only thrown 200 IP once.  He’s probably a 175-180 IP max guy.  I’m very high on him this year.  Had some fluke HR/FB ratios last year.  Probably combo of pitching with disease and baseballs being a bigger joke than the Mariners.  He’s a great buy this year for me.

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36 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I doubt he’s anything other than a SP.  The question is how many IP is he capable of?  He’s only thrown 200 IP once.  He’s probably a 175-180 IP max guy.  I’m very high on him this year.  Had some fluke HR/FB ratios last year.  Probably combo of pitching with disease and baseballs being a bigger joke than the Mariners.  He’s a great buy this year for me.

I also buying him in every league that I can

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Hopefully it’s nothing serious. I think we’re all rooting for this guy. I don’t understand why he’s not getting more attention but I just hope my league mates forget accept the current price. He’s still capable of putting up SP1 numbers. 

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On 2/21/2020 at 10:38 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Sigh of relief. 

 

 

Any idea how far this injury sets him back? Also, had he thrown at all. How did he look before this hip isssue?

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21 minutes ago, OrangeCrush said:

Any idea how far this injury sets him back? Also, had he thrown at all. How did he look before this hip isssue?

 

My guess is similar to Chris Sale situation, probably starts on IL because of a slow start but shouldn't be missing more than a week or two unless he has setbacks or new injury. Maybe comes back earlier with a few short starts to build up.

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Anyone ranking carrasco in the top 30? With the lay-off should that help him?

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When he was pitching poorly in 2019, his advanced metrics didn’t support it and he did get leukemia. I would ignore last season and see his 2018 as a better example of who he is with the added caveat that he basically missed a year.

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On 2/28/2020 at 12:37 PM, Sidearmer said:

 

My guess is similar to Chris Sale situation, probably starts on IL because of a slow start but shouldn't be missing more than a week or two unless he has setbacks or new injury. Maybe comes back earlier with a few short starts to build up.

I think everyone who has him on their team hopes it’s not at all a Chris Sale situation. I know this guy said it before Sale needed TJS but couldn’t resist. 

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3 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

So no way Carrasco plays this year, or ever again barring a proven vaccine right?

Ever again? No way. He will definitely pitch again at some point

 

But I really don't believe he will play this year

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I think he could be a great value especially in the shortened season.  I guess it depends on how he will be used overall.

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