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Evincar

Keston Hiura 2020 Outlook

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Terrific rookie season despite only playing 84 games and being curiously sent down. 303/368/570 along with 19 hrs and 9 sb at 2B is pretty amazing. What can we expect from him in 2020?

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3 hours ago, Evincar said:

Terrific rookie season despite only playing 84 games and being curiously sent down. 303/368/570 along with 19 hrs and 9 sb at 2B is pretty amazing. What can we expect from him in 2020?

Exciting young player with a terrific hit tool who was projected to be a top 3 pick In the mlb draft if there wasn’t concern about his elbow. #9 was a steal, his elbow isn’t a problem, and he’s hitting like the scouts thought he would.

adp around 50 seems very fair, I think it’s nearly certain that he’s gonna regress on the babip side but I also think he’s not a guy likely to forever be striking out 30% of the time. Still a concern for a young player and I think that’ll improve over time.

power last year was most surprising thing.

sorry not a hot take machine here, but I like where the market has him right now. Think he’s appropriately priced and that he’s got a wider range of outcomes than other players in this area with plenty of boom and some bust potential.

Even though I like him, i would likely not be reaching to acquire hiura. I have a weird spidey sense that as we get closer to March his adp in 5x5 will rise into the low 40s or high 30s where I’d feel a little too risky.

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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There is certainly no “he missed part of the season” discount to be had. I still feel like he’s going at a decent spot. .310/110/30/110/15 is absolutely in reach and that is a top 25 player. 

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22 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

There is certainly no “he missed part of the season” discount to be had. I still feel like he’s going at a decent spot. .310/110/30/110/15 is absolutely in reach and that is a top 25 player. 

I love Hiura but that avg only happens if everything possible goes right.

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any concern over the 20 other infielders that the Brewers have signed this offseason?

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4 minutes ago, pmccurry said:

any concern over the 20 other infielders that the Brewers have signed this offseason?


Hiura is by far their most talented infielder they have. He will play for them every day. 
 

My concern is with his 30.7 K% and his 7.2 BB%. He can’t keep those rates and bat over .300. I think his hit tool is pretty good and we will see him adjust. I think we see more walks and less Ks this year but it’s something to monitor.

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6 minutes ago, pmccurry said:

any concern over the 20 other infielders that the Brewers have signed this offseason?

 

No, he will definitely be playing every day.

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3 hours ago, pmccurry said:

any concern over the 20 other infielders that the Brewers have signed this offseason?

Nope.  He is their young budding super star player and well may become the face of the franchise after Yelich for many years to come.

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6 hours ago, Magoo said:

I love Hiura but that avg only happens if everything possible goes right.

 

I’d put the over/under for his average at .290 and nothing from .270-.310 would surprise me. 

 

I think he’s more likely to hit over .300 than under .270.

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4 hours ago, Coach George said:


Hiura is by far their most talented infielder they have. He will play for them every day. 
 

My concern is with his 30.7 K% and his 7.2 BB%. He can’t keep those rates and bat over .300. I think his hit tool is pretty good and we will see him adjust. I think we see more walks and less Ks this year but it’s something to monitor.

 

Hiura has an elite 70 grade hit tool. He changed his approach last year to hit for more power and that’s where that K% comes from. 

 

His walk rate nearly doubled from the first half to the second half last year so that’s encouraging. 

 

Hiura’s hit tool was always considered his best tool. He hit .324 in 57 games in the second half of his rookie season. His BABIP was high but the regression there could be somewhat offset by natural improvements from rookie year to second year. 

 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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39 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Hiura has an elite 70 grade hit tool. He changed his approach last year to hit for more power and that’s where that K% comes from. 

 

His walk rate nearly doubled from the first half to the second half last year so that’s encouraging. 

 

Hiura’s hit tool was always considered his best tool. He hit .324 in 57 games in the second half of his rookie season. His BABIP was high but the regression there could be somewhat offset by natural improvements from rookie year to second year. 

 

Not worried about contact rate?  H% + Contact makes .300 awfully tough. .438 2nd half BABIP!!!! 

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Not worried about contact rate?  H% + Contact makes .300 awfully tough. .438 2nd half BABIP!!!! 

 

His understanding if the zone is fine and is touted for his quick, explosive hands. Going into last season I thought of Hiura as more of an .320 18-20 HR prime years guy who could challenge for a batting title with how he handled the bat but with average power. 

 

His change in approach last year led to an unexpected increase in power and strikeouts.

 

-Maybe he continues to sell out for power has .280 and 40 upside. 

-Maybe he goes back to his old approach and has .320 and 20 upside 

-Maybe he finds a happy medium and has .310 and 30 upside. 

 

 

We’ve seen him be able to hit for contact throughout college the minors and we’ve seen him hit for power in AAA and MLB. The guy is a below average defender and still cracked top 10 prospect lists because of his ability to hit. The range is wide for him depending more so on his approach risk of failure.

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

His understanding if the zone is fine and is touted for his quick, explosive hands. Going into last season I thought of Hiura as more of an .320 18-20 HR prime years guy who could challenge for a batting title with how he handled the bat but with average power. 

 

His change in approach last year led to an unexpected increase in power and strikeouts.

 

-Maybe he continues to sell out for power has .280 and 40 upside. 

-Maybe he goes back to his old approach and has .320 and 20 upside 

-Maybe he finds a happy medium and has .310 and 30 upside. 

 

 

We’ve seen him be able to hit for contact throughout college the minors and we’ve seen him hit for power in AAA and MLB. The guy is a below average defender and still cracked top 10 prospect lists because of his ability to hit. The range is wide for him depending more so on his approach risk of failure.

 

 

 

I do love his Trout-esque swing.  Hope you're right.

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I like Hiura a lot, but the value seems crazy inflated right now.

2019 .402 BABIP  😮

2019 30.7% K% 🤢

It may be, as folks have mentioned, that his K rate normalizes and his A+ hit tool is on display, but the same could be said for Luis Urias.  In fact:

Hiura (age 23): Hit 50/60, GamePower 45/60, RawPower 60/60, Speed 45/45, FutureValue 60

Urias (age 22): Hit 50/65, GamePower 40/45, RawPower 20/35, Speed 50/50, FutureValue 55

Definite difference in raw power and game power, but the rest is awful similar.  Also Urias has a significantly lower K% and a higher BB%.  So if we believe Hiura can normalize, then why don't we believe Urias can as well (who is being drafted #300)?

I'm not trying to say that they are the same player or should be drafted as such, Urias is batting 9th while Hiura is 4th, and the power discrepancy is serious.  But Hiura at #43 right around K Marte, Albies, 20 spots ahead of LeMahieu, 70 spots ahead of Escobar, and 140 ahead of Segura, seems way off base. 

Nothing against the guy, just not my draft style.  Too expensive for too many question marks in a 3rd round pick.  🤷‍♂️

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17 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I like Hiura a lot, but the value seems crazy inflated right now.

2019 .402 BABIP  😮

2019 30.7% K% 🤢

It may be, as folks have mentioned, that his K rate normalizes and his A+ hit tool is on display, but the same could be said for Luis Urias.  In fact:

Hiura (age 23): Hit 50/60, GamePower 45/60, RawPower 60/60, Speed 45/45, FutureValue 60

Urias (age 22): Hit 50/65, GamePower 40/45, RawPower 20/35, Speed 50/50, FutureValue 55

Definite difference in raw power and game power, but the rest is awful similar.  Also Urias has a significantly lower K% and a higher BB%.  So if we believe Hiura can normalize, then why don't we believe Urias can as well (who is being drafted #300)?

I'm not trying to say that they are the same player or should be drafted as such, Urias is batting 9th while Hiura is 4th, and the power discrepancy is serious.  But Hiura at #43 right around K Marte, Albies, 20 spots ahead of LeMahieu, 70 spots ahead of Escobar, and 140 ahead of Segura, seems way off base. 

Nothing against the guy, just not my draft style.  Too expensive for too many question marks in a 3rd round pick.  🤷‍♂️

 

That’s just a weird comparison. Luis Urias struggled mightily on his call up. Hiura didn’t. Hiura hit 19 HRs and 23 doubles in 84 games compared to Urias hitting 4 HRs and 8 doubles in 71 games. The theory I presented that Hiura’s K% was inflated by selling out for power more than ever in his career doesn’t relate to Urias. 

 

 

 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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Sophomore slumps can be real.  He is being drafted too high.

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Keston Hiura has a 50% HardHit% which was good for 10th in all of baseball. 

 

10810722-8-A8-D-472-F-8-DBD-0-DE6-A94-F4

 

Statcast numbers

 

Hiura

208 batted balls

29 barrels 

13.9 barrel %

91.4 mph exit velocity 

16.0 degree launch angle 

 

Urias

159 batted balls

7 barrels 

4.4 barrel %

86.7 mph exit velocity

9.5 degree launch angle 

 

 

MLB average

6.3 barrel %

87.5 mph exit velocity 

 

 

Hiura hit the ball hard when he hit it. Urias not so much. 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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1 hour ago, B&F said:

Sophomore slumps can be real.  He is being drafted too high.

And not all players have sophomore slumps either.  He was in the top ten of all prospects and is the legit deal.  You snooze you loose on this guy.

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1 hour ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Keston Hiura has a 50% HardHit% which was good for 10th in all of baseball. 

 

10810722-8-A8-D-472-F-8-DBD-0-DE6-A94-F4

 

Statcast numbers

 

Hiura

208 batted balls

29 barrels 

13.9 barrel %

91.4 mph exit velocity 

16.0 degree launch angle 

 

Urias

159 batted balls

7 barrels 

4.4 barrel %

86.7 mph exit velocity

9.5 degree launch angle 

 

 

MLB average

6.3 barrel %

87.5 mph exit velocity 

 

 

Hiura hit the ball hard when he hit it. Urias not so much. 

That looks more like a list of the best power hitters. Think everyone question is more about batting average. That very site you are pulling this data from gives him a .266 xBA.

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18 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

That looks more like a list of the best power hitters. Think everyone question is more about batting average. That very site you are pulling this data from gives him a .266 xBA.

 

Read through the thread.

 

My point is that Hiura has hit for average at every level, has electric hands that got him a 70 grade hit tool. In 2019, he had an unexpected surge in power that was accompanied by an inflated K% and decreased contact %.

 

So yes, that list shows a list of power hitters and based on Hiura’s profile coming into the year it is surprising to see him on it. He profiled as someone who’d hit for average more so than power but seemed to have a change in approach this year.

 

As I’ve already said, it’s unlikely he sustains both this high average AND this power. 

 

“-Maybe he continues to sell out for power and has .280 and 40 upside. 

-Maybe he goes back to his old approach and has .320 and 20 upside 

-Maybe he finds a happy medium and has .310 and 30 upside”

 

Hiura showed he can grip it and rip it at the big league level. It’s just a matter of what approach he takes in his sophomore year, IMO.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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Yes. Hit Tool is hardest for scouts to get right though. Swing, Swing path, quick wrists, barrel control, ball to all fields. Things that help a players chances of being a batting champ for sure. Yet, a players hand to eye coordination will never be truly tested until he's faced the best.

He was in a very low percentile for Z-Contact last year. Which means his whiffing was not just an issue of a rookie chasing bad pitches. He was whiffing pitches that he should hit. Having a longer load for more power? Perhaps.

I personally find it optimistic is assume a .280 BA if he still has a max power approach.

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let's be honest guys, nobody with a 30% k rate has a "floor" of .280. I think Hiura's very talented, but stuff like .240 is in the same realm of possibility as stuff like .320. I'm giving him a very wide band of outcomes for his sophomore year.

 

I do think he's a great dynasty asset and will be an MLB regular/star for 10+ years. But expectations are sky high ITT.

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Just for clarification, my comp to Urias was in regards to the similarities in age, hit tool, prospect pedigree, and projections.  I feel like if you want to "project" Hiura to lower his K% and thereby maintain a decent BA, then you should extend the same projection to Urias.  That's all.

As to the hard hit %, that list is littered with very low BA players.  Sano, Gallo, Ianetta, Schwarber, Franmil...  No one is saying Hiura's power projection is off base, he will definitely mash 25+ bombs.  The point is his BA is a liability and that is not being accounted for in the price.  All I was saying is the hype is serious, the price is high, and I feel like you can get better value in the 3rd round---more surefire floor and solidity than a second year player who strikes out 1/3 of the time and is destined for BABIP regress.

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20 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Just for clarification, my comp to Urias was in regards to the similarities in age, hit tool, prospect pedigree, and projections.  I feel like if you want to "project" Hiura to lower his K% and thereby maintain a decent BA, then you should extend the same projection to Urias.  That's all.

As to the hard hit %, that list is littered with very low BA players.  Sano, Gallo, Ianetta, Schwarber, Franmil...  No one is saying Hiura's power projection is off base, he will definitely mash 25+ bombs.  The point is his BA is a liability and that is not being accounted for in the price.  All I was saying is the hype is serious, the price is high, and I feel like you can get better value in the 3rd round---more surefire floor and solidity than a second year player who strikes out 1/3 of the time and is destined for BABIP regress.

 

Again, you're misinterpreting me. I am saying he can maintain a good BA if he changes his approach from selling out for power (what we saw in 2019) to a more balanced approach (what we saw up to 2019). Luis Urias didn't have that power surge/change in approach that resulted in a high K%. Urias just struggled.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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2 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

let's be honest guys, nobody with a 30% k rate has a "floor" of .280. I think Hiura's very talented, but stuff like .240 is in the same realm of possibility as stuff like .320. I'm giving him a very wide band of outcomes for his sophomore year.

 

I do think he's a great dynasty asset and will be an MLB regular/star for 10+ years. But expectations are sky high ITT.

 

Let's be honest, no one said that .280 was Hiura's floor. Why would you put that in quotes as if someone did? I've really been the only one that has given projections for Hiura and they were UPSIDES of .280/40, .320/20, .300/30 depending on if he keeps up the power approach or comes with a more balanced approach. Upsides, not floor. And those are realistic upsides.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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