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Keston Hiura 2020 Outlook

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2 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Just for clarification, my comp to Urias was in regards to the similarities in age, hit tool, prospect pedigree, and projections.  I feel like if you want to "project" Hiura to lower his K% and thereby maintain a decent BA, then you should extend the same projection to Urias.  That's all.

As to the hard hit %, that list is littered with very low BA players.  Sano, Gallo, Ianetta, Schwarber, Franmil...  No one is saying Hiura's power projection is off base, he will definitely mash 25+ bombs.  The point is his BA is a liability and that is not being accounted for in the price.  All I was saying is the hype is serious, the price is high, and I feel like you can get better value in the 3rd round---more surefire floor and solidity than a second year player who strikes out 1/3 of the time and is destined for BABIP regress.

My problem is the 3rd round being a tad high as well.  Especially when you consider you can get more $ value (slightly different profile) with Bichette 40 picks later.

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3 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Let's be honest, no one said that .280 was Hiura's floor. Why would you put that in quotes as if someone did? I've really been the only one that has given projections for Hiura and they were UPSIDES of .280/40, .320/20, .300/30 depending on if he keeps up the power approach or comes with a more balanced approach. Upsides, not floor. And those are realistic upsides.

My mistake, misread your band of upsides as a band of outcomes. I do think all of those are possible, I think he’s a really interesting and volatile player, worth the gamble at some point. 

I like around the 50th off the board like I said earlier.

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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Hiura has the potential to be a great all around bat. I see his K rate dropping significantly.

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Posted (edited)

I'm growing a bit concerned about Huira.

He's been really bad early on. How bad? At 55.0 percent he has the second lowest contact rate in all of baseball. At 22 percent he has the second highest swinging strike rate in all of baseball.

I'm starting to wonder how healthy he is. Remember, he had some vaguely described "arm fatigue" last month.

On it's own it may not seem like much. But his early woes and history makes you wonder.

 

Quote

Hiura has a history of elbow issues dating to his college days at UC Irvine. The Brewers knew of a right elbow injury before they drafted him ninth overall in 2017, but he was able to avoid surgery by undergoing treatment instead, and he had not experienced any major arm trouble since.

 

More: https://www.mlb.com/news/keston-hiura-scratched-with-arm-fatigue

 

And more, from 2017: https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2017/06/22/keston-hiura-brewers-get-good-news/418471001/

 

Quote

Hiura, selected ninth overall out of UC Irvine, was generally regarded as the top college hitter in the draft but wasn't able to play in the field due to a partial UCL tear that dated to April of 2016. He aggravated it again last November.

Hiura underwent a PRP injection to help with the healing, and the Brewers drafted him last week with the belief he wouldn't need surgery. But they were also prepared for the possibility Hiura could miss a year had the elbow required Tommy John surgery.

As it turns out, it won't.

 

What I've seen early this season makes me wonder if it's flaring up again.

Edited by rdf8585
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He either hurt or overrated

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Give the guy more then 11 games.  I know we don't have the luxury of waiting this season but I think he should get more then 44 ABs before we start speculating.  I mean he could go 4 - 4 tonight and be right back at almost 300.   

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2 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

Give the guy more then 11 games.  I know we don't have the luxury of waiting this season but I think he should get more then 44 ABs before we start speculating.  I mean he could go 4 - 4 tonight and be right back at almost 300.   


It’s things like that makes me happy both of my keeper leagues are just playing for fun this year and extending contract statuses an extra year. I can look at Hiura’s rough start and not stress over hit. 

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25 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

Give the guy more then 11 games.  I know we don't have the luxury of waiting this season but I think he should get more then 44 ABs before we start speculating.  I mean he could go 4 - 4 tonight and be right back at almost 300.   

 

I usually wouldn't think twice about an 11 game sample. But the issue last month, which was almost alarmingly vague, coupled with his prior elbow history, does make it fair to wonder. Even if only a little at this point.

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Posted (edited)

This guy Sucks. Missing everything. Similar swing rate just not hitting. Don’t have time to wait on his occasional homer.

Edited by ryno1980
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Time to ride the pine for a bit. Homers and steals are still there but his Ks make him look like the new Odor.

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On 8/8/2020 at 5:06 PM, Dr. Whom said:

He either hurt or overrated


he’s healthy so...

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