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svdude

Nick Senzel 2020 Outlook

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What are we expecting with Senzel this year?  Going into 2019 as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.  Has dealt with Vertigo and a couple other injuries, but was looking to be the starter again heading into the year until Akiyama was signed.  Now appears to be a utility/bench bat unless he's moved.  When I see teams "giving up" on players like this, I tend to lose confidence in them too.  Any reason not to?

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I didnt see the Akiyama signing as replacing Senzel.  From what I've heard he'll be ready to go by ST.  Senzel is pretty versatile like McNeil....I could see him playing a multitude of positions.  I'll be all over him at a discount.  

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From what I've been reading it doesn't look like Senzel will be a full time starter anymore.  I think if he is a utility man, that means at most 500 AB's?

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Senzel was a top 10 prospect who nuked the minor leagues. In the first 3 months before he changed his swing he had an OPS over. 800. He could go 20/20 and .300 next year and no one should be surprised. 

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Still holding onto him in dynasty...I really think his talent is going to win out, if not with the Reds than somebody else

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23 hours ago, svdude said:

From what I've been reading it doesn't look like Senzel will be a full time starter anymore.  I think if he is a utility man, that means at most 500 AB's?

 

I havent seen this - I would be shocked if he isnt a starter with at least 500+ ABs....hope the negative narratives continue so he comes at a discount....def 20/20 upside

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30 minutes ago, Big Tuna said:

 

I havent seen this - I would be shocked if he isnt a starter with at least 500+ ABs....hope the negative narratives continue so he comes at a discount....def 20/20 upside

A couple of the Reds blogs allude to this and Roster Resource backs it up.  I think Reds would be foolish to not have him as a starter.

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On 1/16/2020 at 7:32 AM, svdude said:

 I think Reds would be foolish to not have him as a starter.

 

I think you're right.  So I'm leaning towards them not having him start on a regularly basis.  

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Never proven he can stay on the field long enough to produce. Guy is always hurt.  Till we see a few 600 AB seasons strung together we will never know what he can do.

 

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His real value in fantasy and real life is a trade chip. Seems the Lindor rumours has died down for now but u can bet anybody talking trade to the Reds will be offered Senzel.

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I'm very interested to see how he plays this Spring Training and what position he may be playing.

Barring no set backs in his injury recovery I think he can earn an everyday role but I think he is more likely to be traded if CIN could get Lindor. 

All speculation at this point. I'm ready for opening day to be here. 

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22 hours ago, hailfire4 said:

His real value in fantasy and real life is a trade chip. Seems the Lindor rumours has died down for now but u can bet anybody talking trade to the Reds will be offered Senzel.

yup. I can see him putting it together for a year or two and having a very solid season but I just couldn't resist moving him while he still had value.

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Reds have a dicey OF with Winkie, Aquino Senzel and the Japanese guy. Right now the most assured for everyday ABs is the Japanese guy. For fantasy purposes I would hope Aquino is the odd man out but it is really a crapshoot. Considering how the Reds misused their outfield last year forcing Puig everyday who knows what they will do.  I am sure the rumours of them still being in the hunt for Ozuna is either agent smoke or a trade is coming down to pare their OF depth.

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3 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

Reds have a dicey OF with Winkie, Aquino Senzel and the Japanese guy. Right now the most assured for everyday ABs is the Japanese guy. For fantasy purposes I would hope Aquino is the odd man out but it is really a crapshoot. Considering how the Reds misused their outfield last year forcing Puig everyday who knows what they will do.  I am sure the rumours of them still being in the hunt for Ozuna is either agent smoke or a trade is coming down to pare their OF depth.

 

If they sign Ozuna the options I see, one to your point, is a potential trade of an Outfielder. Or maybe they try Senzel out at SS if he is healthy? 

I wonder if Votto struggles and both Moose and Senzel are hitting could Moose slide to 1B, Senzel at 2B and Votto taking days off. 

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11 hours ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

 

If they sign Ozuna the options I see, one to your point, is a potential trade of an Outfielder. Or maybe they try Senzel out at SS if he is healthy? 

I wonder if Votto struggles and both Moose and Senzel are hitting could Moose slide to 1B, Senzel at 2B and Votto taking days off. 

Votto needs to take the rest of his career off. He’s washed. 

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Senzel can play the IF.....if he's healthy I see him as a Jeff McNeil value from last yr...no real position but the talent to put up great numbers moving around.  I'll happily scoop him up at McNeil's price from last yr!  

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44 minutes ago, Big Tuna said:

Senzel can play the IF.....if he's healthy I see him as a Jeff McNeil value from last yr...no real position but the talent to put up great numbers moving around.  I'll happily scoop him up at McNeil's price from last yr!  

His avg would have to skyrocket to reach McNeil. He had less homeruns as well, although he had less plate attempts too of course. I think the counting stats could be similar, probably not a .300+ avg however. 

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

His avg would have to skyrocket to reach McNeil. He had less homeruns as well, although he had less plate attempts too of course. I think the counting stats could be similar, probably not a .300+ avg however. 

Agreed - not saying they are identical players....McNeil much higher avg with Senzel more SB upside...just comparing in that McNail came at a discount for similar issues last yr and really paid off.  

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On 1/18/2020 at 1:06 AM, Trexpenniebaker said:

Never proven he can stay on the field long enough to produce. Guy is always hurt.  Till we see a few 600 AB seasons strung together we will never know what he can do.

 

I'm with this post.  Obviously he is talented, but at this point what are you paying for?  I'd rather have a guy that has a better track record, even at less upside, over Senzel.  Until he proves he can stay healthy, I am not a buyer.  As someone who has a parent with vertigo, it is not something that necessarily just goes away.  Caveat emptor.

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On 1/23/2020 at 9:35 PM, BigPapi44 said:

I'm with this post.  Obviously he is talented, but at this point what are you paying for?  I'd rather have a guy that has a better track record, even at less upside, over Senzel.  Until he proves he can stay healthy, I am not a buyer.  As someone who has a parent with vertigo, it is not something that necessarily just goes away.  Caveat emptor.

 

The thing with Senzel is that he doesn't have super upside anyway. The only thing pointing to his upside is his pedigree when he was drafted, but he has never had a huge power or speed year in his professional career. His only full minor league season he had 14 HR and 14 SB. That is nice but not huge upside. Last year he was 12/14 in 375 AB. Again, given 600 AB, that's solid but not earth shattering especially for someone who at this point doesn't project to be very high in average.I get that he does have pedigree and maybe he can have a true breakout, but for him to hit value you would need the playing time to work out, the health to work out, and for him to make major improvements in power and/or speed. I doubt all three of those will happen.

At an NFBC ADP of 195, he is pretty cheap, but there are high upside guys being drafted around there as well with similar downside, so its not like he is undervalued. The only reason he is still even inside the top 200 is because of what analysts and scouts thought of him in 2016 when he was drafted.

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The Reds are now the front runners to sign Nicholas Castellanos thus making the outfield even more crowded.

Hopefully Senzel will try and challenge Galvis at SS? Or be a Utility player? 

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17 hours ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

The Reds are now the front runners to sign Nicholas Castellanos thus making the outfield even more crowded.

Hopefully Senzel will try and challenge Galvis at SS? Or be a Utility player? 

 

Stock is definitely going to go down with the Castellanos signing, at least until more clarity with the Reds' plans in terms of starters and potential trades. Probably true of all the Reds OF.  But from Reds' player development perspective, if he is on the team, makes no sense not to give regular ABs to Senzel.  They may move him around the IF and OF, as he has played every position except catcher (only 1 game at SS in minors, though). Fantasy wise, if he still gets 600 PAs and gets multi-position eligibility, could be a plus, as the investment cost will be a lot less now. 

Edited by bluefrogguy

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At this point a trade is the only way to salvage Senzel's value. Aside from that he's probably undraftable in standard leagues and in deeper leagues is simply a stash waiting for injury.

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I like Senzel from a skills perspective but I have some concerns with durability, particularity coming off the labrum injury. Even if he stays healthy I think they'll build in a lot of days offs. They're certainly not short on bodies. I'll bet the under on 600 PA. If he slips, I'll take a stab but not someone I'm going target.

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At this point you have to hope he's traded because he's definitely not more than a part-time player on the Reds any more.

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