Jump to content
Rotoworld.com Forums

Odell Beckham 2020 Outlook


Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

3 of these are very reasonable.  The yardage is not.

The reality is that Baker is 75% of what Eli was.  Predicting 100% of the yardage on 25% less targets and catches, for a career high yards per reception rate is insane.

No, I'm not using a single season, I'm using both seasons we've seen Baker throw the football.  My concerns have NOTHING to do with OBJ.  Put OBJ in the place of Julio, Adams, Thomas, etc and he's easily ranked and drafted top 5.  This is 100% related to Baker.  I'm not saying he "can't", I'm saying Baker "has to" take a HUGE step forward to make OBJ a top 5 WR.

Better play calls and a better oline will help, but Baker still has to make the right read, and execute the right throw.  Unfortunately, that's where OBJ gets trapped by Baker.  If Baker gets a 'little better' it likely hurts OBJ, because like Jamie's Winston and TB last year, if Baker doesn't throw 20INTs... his attempts, completions, and passing yards are going DOWN, not up.  If Cle controls the ball better, that leads to less passing volume, more running, more clock killing.

The only win for OBJ, in my eyes, is Baker makes a massive step forward.  Can he?  Sure, he's young enough, and 2 years is not a fair evaluation period for a QB.  But for fantasy purposes, in order for OBJ to truly benefit, Baker has to be significantly better than he has been this far.

If this is who Baker really is... OBJ is screwed.

If Baker only gets more efficient... It likely hurts OBJs overall volume.  If Baker regresses, it likely also hurts OBJ.  I don't think he can possibly throw more INT than last year.

I do find it odd that you feel the addition of Austin Hooper is a benefit to OBJ, because I assume the exact opposite.  

CLE TEs last year combined for only 69 targets, 41 catches, and 497 yards.

Austin Hooper, by himself, in only 13 games played, had 97 targets, 75 catches, and 787 yards last year.  That's a bad sign for OBJ in my opinion.

Honestly, 4k yards and 30 TDs is all Baker needs to hit, for OBJ to have top 5 potential I think.  Last year Cle TEs combined for 9TDs.  RBs only combined for 1. (Receiving)

I doubt either of these repeat. (TE down, RB up)

Landry falls to 4 or 5, TEs fall to 5 or 6, OBJ jumps to 10, RBs 2 or 3, and 3 or 4 to the field... 24-28 passing TDs.

It's plausible.  But 1335 yards on only 130 targets and 81 receptions?  16.5 YPR? From a QB who only throws 3500 to start with?  Extremely unlikely.

Only 2 WRs hit double digit TDs last year.  Only 8 WRs had a YPC of 16.5 or higher.

You're projecting OBJ to do both... With Baker Mayfield... On the Browns.

I find it unfair that you do not take coaching into any of these evaluations. Baker has had arguably the worst offensive coaching in the league since he came into the league. That's the problem with numbers and their lack of context. Baker was extremely efficent when getting rid of the ball and it is also a category Odell is very good in. Yet for some reason the Browns insisted on running long developing plays for Baker.

I'm not a big believer in Baker either. However, him becoming decent enough for Odell to ball out? I can 100% see that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 679
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Son, just point to where on the doll that OBJ touched you.

Yes, there's a very decent chance you're right that Odell was a good player to fade, and I think a decent number of people do/would agree with you, but your issue is you come across as an arrogant pri

@PisEdiRin Hey man we cooked up something for ya have a seat.

Posted Images

Quote

The reality is that Baker is 75% of what Eli was.  Predicting 100% of the yardage on 25% less targets and catches, for a career high yards per reception rate is insane.

 

The reality is we don't know what Baker is yet, but Stefon Diggs went from a previous career high of 13.8 y/r to last year's 17.9 y/r when Stefanski started calling plays.  Stefanski has referenced this and mentioned he wants to get OBJ downfield like Diggs.  Considering Beckham will be in the same role as Diggs and is a better rceiver, projecting a jump from his previous career high y/r of 15.1 to 16.5 is not insane.

And if you are going to knock Baker saying he cannot sustain that y/r, note that Baker completed 39.2% of his deep balls last year (41.3% in 2018) while Cousins completed 40.4% (36.5% in 2018)

Edited by Euphonetics
Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a situation where you just have to bet on talent. OBJ is a top 5 WR in the league, and you can grab him in the fourth round. Gotta take that “gamble.” A lot was working against him last year. Injuries, poor O-line play, poor QB play, poor coaching. Now he’s healthy, revamped O-line which should result in better QB play, and better coaching. I think Mayfield is going to surprise a lot of people this year, and OBJ is going to be the primary beneficiary. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Euphonetics said:

 

The reality is we don't know what Baker is yet, but Stefon Diggs went from a previous career high of 13.8 y/r to last year's 17.9 y/r when Stefanski started calling plays.  Stefanski has referenced this and mentioned he wants to get OBJ downfield like Diggs.  Considering Beckham will be in the same role as Diggs and is a better rceiver, projecting a jump from his previous career high y/r of 15.1 to 16.5 is not insane.

And if you are going to knock Baker saying he cannot sustain that y/r, note that Baker completed 39.2% of his deep balls last year (41.3% in 2018) while Cousins completed 40.4% (36.5% in 2018)

 

Exactly, OBJ = Diggs in this offense and Landry = Thielen.  Stefanski will use Beckham deep to open things up for Chubb and Hunt in the run game.

I have few concerns about Beckham producing.  He's a top receiving talent and just about the prototypical receiver to benefit from the offense Stefanski ran last year in Minnesota.  Landry is the guy I'd avoid...he's maybe the 4th best offensive weapon on that team.  Him and Hooper will have to fight it out for touches behind Beckham, Chubb, and Hunt.

Also Baker is definitely getting underrated based on last year.  Yes, he was bad, undeniably.  But the year before, he was great.  He's still the guy who holds the rookie TD record without starting a full year.  For a guy that competitive, who has displayed talent at the NFL level, and who from all reports has been keeping quiet and putting in work this offseason; I don't see how he's not materially better.  

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

OBJ is a top 5 WR in the league, and you can grab him in the fourth round

Yeah, if I can get him that late, I don’t really give a crap if he busts. At least I won’t have to flush my whole season down the drain if he underperforms. Hopefully he can wipe the slate clean this season and perform like we all know that he can. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/5/2020 at 12:10 PM, Cody_ODea said:

Why is 2019 the only year you will acknowledge as OBJ's potential? 

 

On 9/6/2020 at 4:42 AM, Gohawks said:

I’ll let all the doubt drive one of the most talented WR in the entire NFL down the boards.

The Browns had some of the worst offensive coaching I’ve ever seen last season. The reason Odell finished so low among WRs is because he only got 4 TDs. That’s not happening again.

Dude should be taken in the early 30s without hesitation. People will look back and wonder how the hell did a player of Odells talent make it out the first two rounds. Top 12 finish incoming. 

 

I guarantee you he will not finish as a Top 12 WR.

Edited by PisEdiRin
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FinsUp24 said:

This is a situation where you just have to bet on talent. OBJ is a top 5 WR in the league, and you can grab him in the fourth round. Gotta take that “gamble.” A lot was working against him last year. Injuries, poor O-line play, poor QB play, poor coaching. Now he’s healthy, revamped O-line which should result in better QB play, and better coaching. I think Mayfield is going to surprise a lot of people this year, and OBJ is going to be the primary beneficiary. 


Just be careful where you grab him...or use gloves. Lol. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The good news: The entire team played terrible. It can't get any worse. That Ravens D is legit.

 

The bad news: His floor is bottom. And there was no indication anything changed from last season.

 

Fortunately, I don't think most are relying on him like last season.

Edited by MKO3090
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wasn't this expected against Humphrey and the Ravens defense. One positive was the targets at least. Oh no let's just write a player off after one week. Who cares lol. Not every single player can do well every single week. It hurts but everyone that knows something knew it was going to be a rough week 1

Link to post
Share on other sites

OBJ looked terrible today. Couldn't get open, huge drop on 3rd and 2 that swung the momentum of the game. They even tried to force feed OBJ the ball numerous times (hence 3 catches on 10 targets).

Baker and OBJ still don't look to be on the same page....that's concerning since this is their second year together. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, MurderInc said:

OBJ looked terrible today. Couldn't get open, huge drop on 3rd and 2 that swung the momentum of the game. They even tried to force feed OBJ the ball numerous times (hence 3 catches on 10 targets).

Baker and OBJ still don't look to be on the same page....that's concerning since this is their second year together. 

 

"Huge drop that swung the momentum of the game"

 

Sounds familiar to his NYG days. He did that all the time as a NYG.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...