dontclapGonorrhea

Odell Beckham 2020 Outlook

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On 1/18/2020 at 4:09 AM, joshua18 said:

He’s mediocre without Eli. 
 

My response to Evan Silva and all the Giants haters who thought Baker was an upgrade over Eli

 

2389133-4949054815-micha.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Bakers 1st 2 seasons statistically > Eli's   🤷‍♂️

 

 

Comparing a 2nd year QB to a veteran 🤷‍♂️ 

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This is based on nothing but gut feel analysis, but I feel there's a comparison to Leonard Fournette / Amari Cooper 2018. Everyone has the memory of the dud season but half the battle in your draft analysis is trying to look at all the data objectively.

OBJ (when healthy) is still a top-5 WR talent. He had 133 targets last year. Granted there are other WR's in better situations, and he will have targets/TDs siphoned by Landry and Chubb, but from a pure talent perspective if you put him in KC he'd be in #1WR overall debate. MT, Tyreek, Julio, Nuk (not necessarily in that order) will go before him but thereafter I wouldn't hate someone taking him over Godwin or Adams. His value hasn't been completely torpedoed like AR15 in Chicago; expectations just need to be tempered. I'd be happy taking him mid-late second if I went RB first, and I'd be ecstatic to have him as a WR2 or my WR1 if I went RB-RB.

I am always in the market for a talented player after a down year. And you gotta think: how much worse could Cleveland be next year?

(Actually don't answer that question)

Edited by DeliciousGravy
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12 hours ago, DeliciousGravy said:

This is based on nothing but gut feel analysis, but I feel there's a comparison to Leonard Fournette / Amari Cooper 2018. Everyone has the memory of the dud season but half the battle in your draft analysis is trying to look at all the data objectively.

OBJ (when healthy) is still a top-5 WR talent. He had 133 targets last year. Granted there are other WR's in better situations, and he will have targets/TDs siphoned by Landry and Chubb, but from a pure talent perspective if you put him in KC he'd be in #1WR overall debate. MT, Tyreek, Julio, Nuk (not necessarily in that order) will go before him but thereafter I wouldn't hate someone taking him over Godwin or Adams. His value hasn't been completely torpedoed like AR15 in Chicago; expectations just need to be tempered. I'd be happy taking him mid-late second if I went RB first, and I'd be ecstatic to have him as a WR2 or my WR1 if I went RB-RB.

I am always in the market for a talented player after a down year. And you gotta think: how much worse could Cleveland be next year?

(Actually don't answer that question)

 

 I think the "talent" argument has been proven to be false this season. OBJ's talent did not overcome, bad coaching, poor QB chemistry, inability to capitalize on wr1 volume opportunity and the inability to dominate top corners.

OBJ had opportunity with bad coaching and bad offensive play but he didnt execute.

Based off of what we know from this past season and others, OBJ currently is at best a wr2 with wr1 potential if things break the right way.

Personally talent is the least criteria when I draft as i focus more on situation+market share for fantasy.  

On paper the Browns still have the same high quality talent on the roster but has the teams situation improved?

That's the question that needs to be figured out in the offseason as a new coaching staff takes over.

If someone wants to draft OBJ with high draft capital, i'm ok with that because you are betting that he will perform as the OBJ on the NYG's but for me he needs to priced as a wr2 in the 3rd rd before I bite. I hate betting high draft capital on unknown coaching staffs hired for bad teams. 

My speculation is  a new HC  given the weak o-line pass protection is going to protect Mayfield, teach him to get rid of the ball quickly in a short passing game and run the ball a lot.  The Wr's wont see a ton of volume but will have the opportunity to make some big plays but i'm not sure that will be consistent enough to count on week to week. The Browns can run the ball but they had questionable play calling in the red zone. So no reason for a new HC to abandon the run game and air it out to feed obj more volume.

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20 hours ago, kdko said:

 

 

Bakers 1st 2 seasons statistically > Eli's   🤷‍♂️

 

 

Comparing a 2nd year QB to a veteran 🤷‍♂️ 


I see you were one of the suckers buying into the “OBJ got a QB upgrade narrative”. How did that work out for you? 
 

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There is no way I would take him over Adams next year.

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3 hours ago, affliction said:

There is no way I would take him over Adams next year.

Taking him over Adams is just crazy talk!

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On 1/20/2020 at 4:17 PM, dashoe said:

 

 I think the "talent" argument has been proven to be false this season. OBJ's talent did not overcome, bad coaching, poor QB chemistry, inability to capitalize on wr1 volume opportunity and the inability to dominate top corners.

OBJ had opportunity with bad coaching and bad offensive play but he didnt execute.

Based off of what we know from this past season and others, OBJ currently is at best a wr2 with wr1 potential if things break the right way.

Personally talent is the least criteria when I draft as i focus more on situation+market share for fantasy.  

On paper the Browns still have the same high quality talent on the roster but has the teams situation improved?

That's the question that needs to be figured out in the offseason as a new coaching staff takes over.

If someone wants to draft OBJ with high draft capital, i'm ok with that because you are betting that he will perform as the OBJ on the NYG's but for me he needs to priced as a wr2 in the 3rd rd before I bite. I hate betting high draft capital on unknown coaching staffs hired for bad teams. 

My speculation is  a new HC  given the weak o-line pass protection is going to protect Mayfield, teach him to get rid of the ball quickly in a short passing game and run the ball a lot.  The Wr's wont see a ton of volume but will have the opportunity to make some big plays but i'm not sure that will be consistent enough to count on week to week. The Browns can run the ball but they had questionable play calling in the red zone. So no reason for a new HC to abandon the run game and air it out to feed obj more volume.

Nowhere in this long post is mentioned that he played at least half the year (at least) with a hernia. He did clear 1000 yards in spite of that and continued to play to the bitter end. 

I get that he's had two lost years - that's the truth and I feel it as a dynasty owner. 

He just had surgery for this issue today, so it's not a fake injury. 

I get that he needs to have a big year in 2020 - and I think he will if he stays healthy. 

I saw mention of OBJ v Adams. Of course you take Adams before OBJ. That's a matter of QBs. Rodgers is clearly declining but he's still able to get the ball to Adams - Rodgers has a ton more cache than Mayfield at this point and deservedly so. 

All I'm saying is selling OBJ low after two injury-soiled years would be a mistake - just my opinion. He's still young enough to string together some elite seasons,

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1 hour ago, SuperJoint said:

Nowhere in this long post is mentioned that he played at least half the year (at least) with a hernia. He did clear 1000 yards in spite of that and continued to play to the bitter end. 

I get that he's had two lost years - that's the truth and I feel it as a dynasty owner. 

He just had surgery for this issue today, so it's not a fake injury. 

I get that he needs to have a big year in 2020 - and I think he will if he stays healthy. 

I saw mention of OBJ v Adams. Of course you take Adams before OBJ. That's a matter of QBs. Rodgers is clearly declining but he's still able to get the ball to Adams - Rodgers has a ton more cache than Mayfield at this point and deservedly so. 

All I'm saying is selling OBJ low after two injury-soiled years would be a mistake - just my opinion. He's still young enough to string together some elite seasons,

 

I didnt bother mentioning his injury because HE CHOSE to play with it and the end result was he hurt himself and his team with not being optimal.

Also the report was he had the hernia since the preseason and it's an injury that you either play through he pain or you get surgery and sit out 4-6 weeks. So if it did happen in the preseason he could have had the surgery same as Hunt and returned by midseason healthy to play. Instead he had a mediocre performance and his team a losing record to the point that the HC+GM were blown out the door. 

His injury does not change my valuation of him as a wr2 with upside but I still think he wont be a reliable week to week wr1 given the unknowns surrounding the team and coaching 

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9 hours ago, mbcoutinho said:

In a 14-team 0.5ppr

I was offered OBJ + 2021 1st for my Davante + Coleman and declined.

should be a no brainer.

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20 hours ago, mbcoutinho said:

In a 14-team 0.5ppr

I was offered OBJ + 2021 1st for my Davante + Coleman and declined.

Which coleman and how early is the 1st?

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Which coleman and how early is the 1st?

Vincent

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Which coleman and how early is the 1st?

Tevin. Probably a mid to late (note it's a 2021 first).

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5 minutes ago, mbcoutinho said:

Tevin. Probably a mid to late (note it's a 2021 first).

If Corey, go for it

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updated picture of Odell in fantasy if anyone needs to remember. Super talented, but always hurt. Add Hooper, Chubb, Hunt, and Landry. I would be shocked to see him finish in the top 15 at WR.

OBJ.jpg

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15 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

updated picture of Odell in fantasy if anyone needs to remember. Super talented, but always hurt. Add Hooper, Chubb, Hunt, and Landry. I would be shocked to see him finish in the top 15 at WR.

OBJ.jpg

Yeah gotta say way too many mouths too feed and he gets Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice who will likely be elite defenses. Throw in the fact that his name will push him into round 2/3, no thanks either.

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On 1/21/2020 at 12:24 PM, hockeyfan77 said:

Taking him over Adams is just crazy talk!


Or Godwin for that matter ... what kinda kool-aid be folks drinking these days. His last solid year was in 2016 , & yes I know his season got cut short in 17’. Major pass on OBJ , I had the same feeling about the Browns in general last year. I guess Chubb did good, but he was a first round pick was he not. 

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6 hours ago, RunCMC said:


Or Godwin for that matter ... what kinda kool-aid be folks drinking these days. His last solid year was in 2016 , & yes I know his season got cut short in 17’. Major pass on OBJ , I had the same feeling about the Browns in general last year. I guess Chubb did good, but he was a first round pick was he not. 

 

agreed that drafting OBJ in the first three rounds could torpedo your team's success for the season.

but at current cost, is see myself taking a shot at OBJ. fantasyfootballcalculator has OBJ's ADP at 6.06 right now (in half-PPR). certainly we'll see him in round 4 (at least) by june. 

so i imagine it comes down to your league's draft. some owners will bite early (and get bit), but in some leagues he'll linger: if OBJ is sitting there at the 4.12. to 5.01 hook, i'm taking him over tyler boyd and ty hilton. 

tenor.gif

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On 4/5/2020 at 7:43 AM, Sack Exchange said:

 

agreed that drafting OBJ in the first three rounds could torpedo your team's success for the season.

but at current cost, is see myself taking a shot at OBJ. fantasyfootballcalculator has OBJ's ADP at 6.06 right now (in half-PPR). certainly we'll see him in round 4 (at least) by june. 

so i imagine it comes down to your league's draft. some owners will bite early (and get bit), but in some leagues he'll linger: if OBJ is sitting there at the 4.12. to 5.01 hook, i'm taking him over tyler boyd and ty hilton. 

tenor.gif

He won't be. 

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38 minutes ago, mmcc1029 said:

He won't be. 

Alot of pro analysts have him at minimum a top 12 wr. I wouldn't want him until rd 4, but he will be long gone. 

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On 1/21/2020 at 2:24 PM, hockeyfan77 said:

Taking him over Adams is just crazy talk!

Not really.   Suppose Adams suffers an ACL tear in Game 1.  

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

Not really.   Suppose Adams suffers an ACL tear in Game 1.  

Suppose your aunt had a dick, she'd be your uncle.

Thats the legit stupidest reasoning ever. 

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1 minute ago, itslarry said:

Suppose your aunt had a dick, she'd be your uncle.

Thats the legit stupidest reasoning ever. 

So instead of addressing my post, you'd rather attack my family and fantasize about women having wieners.

It's pretty weird stuff.

 

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4 hours ago, ChiSox1390 said:

If he is there in the late 2nd or 3rd round, he is worth the gamble!


Negative wouldn’t touch him till the 4th at the earliest. 2nd/3rd is betting the farm brodie , not gambling. 

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