K197040

Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Any thoughts on where he'll get drafted next season?

Had some great games when Williams and/or Adams was out.   But also had some absolute duds that lost weeks.

The Packers seem to be leaning on him in the playoffs but is that what LeFleur was planning all along?   Split carries and conserve his usage during the regular season so he'll be fresh when it matters most.  It's hard to argue with that strategy.   But maybe next season, they aren't in a position to hold him back?

Seems like he's a lock to be picked in the top 12 RB but unless I felt really good about my WR/TE, I'd have reservations with him being my RB1.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, K197040 said:

Any thoughts on where he'll get drafted next season?

Had some great games when Williams and/or Adams was out.   But also had some absolute duds that lost weeks.

The Packers seem to be leaning on him in the playoffs but is that what LeFleur was planning all along?   Split carries and conserve his usage during the regular season so he'll be fresh when it matters most.  It's hard to argue with that strategy.   But maybe next season, they aren't in a position to hold him back?

Seems like he's a lock to be picked in the top 12 RB but unless I felt really good about my WR/TE, I'd have reservations with him being my RB1.

 

I would take him as my RB 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would not want this dude where he will be drafted. Williams takes too much work and just does get enough carries because of it. 11 carries, 12 carries gamed are the norm with him.Id rather have a true workhorse like fournette (handcuffed), chubb, etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

2019 is not over

 

What on earth is there left to discuss about players fantasy outlook for the 2019 season?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, sSektor said:

 

What on earth is there left to discuss about players fantasy outlook for the 2019 season?

DFS slates for tomorrow’s games?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

DFS slates for tomorrow’s games?

 

Niche playoff daily fantasy with 4 teams left shouldn't hold up discussion of players on all the other teams. The forum is already all but dead activity wise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, sSektor said:

 

Niche playoff daily fantasy with 4 teams left shouldn't hold up discussion of players on all the other teams. The forum is already all but dead activity wise.

Don’t see how it is - there are multiple 2020 outlook threads available already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was going to post this after Green Bay's 2019 season ended, but since a thread has already been started, here goes. I find it interesting how a combo of media narrative and preconceived bias can figure into the perceived value of players. Presented here are two different RB's.

The first one had an amazing season and was considered to be between the #1 to #3 overall pick for the following season. Let's call him Player A.

The second one also had an amazing season...but was criticized throughout said amazing season. Critics looked for things to pick apart about him, rationalizing the reasons for his success and taking glory when he did have a poor fantasy day. As of right now, nobody considers him a top 3 RB for the upcoming season. Some initial rankings don't even have him as a 1st round pick. Let's call him Player B.

image.thumb.png.f74d8544a4a2291c8465150fd56e0b52.png 
Player A is 2018 Alvin Kamara. 
Player B is 2019 Aaron Jones. 

Edited by Corleone
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Corleone said:

I was going to post this after Green Bay's 2019 season ended, but since a thread has already been started..I find it interesting how a combo of media narrative and preconceived bias can figure into the perceived value of players. Presented here are two different RB's.

The first one had an amazing season and was considered to be between the #1 to #3 overall pick for the following season. Let's call him Player A.

The second one also had an amazing season...but was criticized throughout said amazing season. Critics looked for things to pick apart about him, rationalizing the reasons for his success and taking glory when he did have a poor fantasy day. As of right now, nobody considers him a top 3 RB for the upcoming season. Some initial rankings don't even have him as a 1st round pick. Let's call him Player B.

image.thumb.png.f74d8544a4a2291c8465150fd56e0b52.png 

Player A is 2018 Alvin Kamara. 
Player B is 2019 Aaron Jones. 

The amount of catches Kamara gets vaults him way over jones especially in full ppr. Look at jones carries all year not enough. Kamara was injured and looked fully healthy at the end where he dominated. I would be dancing in the streets if i get Kamara around pick 8-10 in a full ppr. Jones had a career year and kamara tds will regress to the mean go up. Saints still a great team and last year was weird with brees missing time and kamara h.a.s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

The amount of catches Kamara gets vaults him way over jones especially in full ppr. Look at jones carries all year not enough. Kamara was injured and looked fully healthy at the end where he dominated. I would be dancing in the streets if i get Kamara around pick 8-10 in a full ppr. Jones had a career year and kamara tds will regress to the mean go up. Saints still a great team and last year was weird with brees missing time and kamara h.a.s.

2019 Jones got about 2 more carries per game than 2018 Kamara. And about 2 less catches per game. The difference in their touches per game was 0.4. Granted, receptions are more valuable than carries (both in real-life and in full PPR). But 0.4 is 0.4. 

Most people were super-excited about Kamara in 2019, even though he was likely to see a TD regression himself.
And most people are not super-excited for Jones in 2020.

Now Kamara did indeed have a drop-off in 2019 (and though he improved fantasy-wise at the end of 2019, he hardly dominated...and it didn't count for most fantasy owners). Regardless, that doesn't seem to be the reason that people aren't excited about Jones. For some reason, many people drive themselves crazy going over the touch and snap counts for Jones, but didn't and don't for Kamara. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Jones had a career year

Maybe for touchdowns.  There's no reason to believe his yardage, receptions, etc can't all increase.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is fair to think Jones will have a TD regression in 2020. 19 TD seasons don't happen on a regular basis.
But I decided to check on "the season after", for RB's that have big TD seasons.
What's a big TD season? In my definition, I'd say 17 TD's or more. That would be an average of over 1 TD per game across a 16-game season.

From 2000--2018, there were 20 different RB's who scored 17 TD's or more. 
7 of the 20 scored 17 TD's at least one more season after doing it for the first time.
But let's focus on the first season after, as that's the situation Aaron Jones (and CMC) will be in during 2020

Here's a full list of the RB's with 17+ TD's. These stats and ranks are for full PPR.

image.png.946cf787157c1c48ce42863448e2dbdc.png

13 of the 20 were an RB1 in their first season after scoring 17 TD's.
That doesn't mean that some of them were not disappointments. It'd be fair to say that R.Williams, A.Green, and Kamara this past season, were all disappointments considering their high ADP's. But they still were RB1 in 12-team leagues.

Of the other 7 RB's who were not an RB1, 4 of them were playing at a pace where they would've been an RB1, if they didn't get hurt. These players were E.James, D.Williams, M.Turner, and L.McCoy.

Of the final 3 RB's, D.Johnson didn't make it out of Week 1 without an injury in 2017, so we didn't get to see anything out of him.
M.Lynch was playing at an RB2 level through 7 games. So to the point of injury, he was a disappointment in his season after 17 TD's.
And the final player was Blount. Nobody expected anything out of him in his season after 17 TD's, as we can see by his ADP.

What's the point of this all? Yes, there probably will be regression for Jones (and CMC) in 2020. But that doesn't mean that regression will prevent them from an RB1 season. I find it useful to look at the past, to give me an idea of how other big TD scorers in the past have fared afterwards. Now Jones is of course his own player. Regardless of the past,  prior players and stats don't prove what the future holds for Jones. So feel free to make note of these numbers, or ignore them, as you see fit.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, sSektor said:

 

What on earth is there left to discuss about players fantasy outlook for the 2019 season?

Therè is the NFC championship and potential Super Bowl run to go still

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Id rather have cmc, chubb, eckler without gordon, henry, kamara, bell, zeke, barkley, Singletary, mixon, gurely, miles sander if howard is gone, and carson. Jacobs is close, but not enough catches. So fringe rb1, but wouldnt be happy about it due to splitting carries so much. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Id rather have cmc, chubb, eckler without gordon, henry, kamara, bell, zeke, barkley, Singletary, mixon, gurely, miles sander if howard is gone, and carson. Jacobs is close, but not enough catches. So fringe rb1, but wouldnt be happy about it due to splitting carries so much. 

No way I’d take Bell, Devin, Gurley, Miles or Carson over him. But to each his own. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

No way I’d take Bell, Devin, Gurley, Miles or Carson over him. But to each his own. 

I might take Carson over him but agree on the rest

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's going to get drafted in the 12 - 18 range, which will either end up as a steal or a bomb next season. 

Personally, I'll pass on him in that range, but agree with JoeJoe that I'd take him before Bell/Devin/Gurley/Miles. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Low-end RB1 at minimum pending any backfield changes. Continuity is good, and he just looks the part. Maybe TD's go down, but he should at least be a 250 touch guy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/19/2020 at 2:09 PM, Corleone said:

It is fair to think Jones will have a TD regression in 2020. 19 TD seasons don't happen on a regular basis.
But I decided to check on "the season after", for RB's that have big TD seasons.
What's a big TD season? In my definition, I'd say 17 TD's or more. That would be an average of over 1 TD per game across a 16-game season.

From 2000--2018, there were 20 different RB's who scored 17 TD's or more. 
7 of the 20 scored 17 TD's at least one more season after doing it for the first time.
But let's focus on the first season after, as that's the situation Aaron Jones (and CMC) will be in during 2020

Here's a full list of the RB's with 17+ TD's. These stats and ranks are for full PPR.

image.png.946cf787157c1c48ce42863448e2dbdc.png

13 of the 20 were an RB1 in their first season after scoring 17 TD's.
That doesn't mean that some of them were not disappointments. It'd be fair to say that R.Williams, A.Green, and Kamara this past season, were all disappointments considering their high ADP's. But they still were RB1 in 12-team leagues.

Of the other 7 RB's who were not an RB1, 4 of them were playing at a pace where they would've been an RB1, if they didn't get hurt. These players were E.James, D.Williams, M.Turner, and L.McCoy.

Of the final 3 RB's, D.Johnson didn't make it out of Week 1 without an injury in 2017, so we didn't get to see anything out of him.
M.Lynch was playing at an RB2 level through 7 games. So to the point of injury, he was a disappointment in his season after 17 TD's.
And the final player was Blount. Nobody expected anything out of him in his season after 17 TD's, as we can see by his ADP.

What's the point of this all? Yes, there probably will be regression for Jones (and CMC) in 2020. But that doesn't mean that regression will prevent them from an RB1 season. I find it useful to look at the past, to give me an idea of how other big TD scorers in the past have fared afterwards. Now Jones is of course his own player. Regardless of the past,  prior players and stats don't prove what the future holds for Jones. So feel free to make note of these numbers, or ignore them, as you see fit.

Adding to this, with Jones scoring another 2 TD's in the NFC Championship Game, he finished with 23 total TD's (19 regular season + 4 postseason). With that, I took a further look at the above list of RB's who from 2000--2018, scored at least 17 TD's.

How many of those 20 RB's ever scored at least 23 TD's in a total season (regular season + postseason)?
Just 5 of the 20: LDT, S.Alexander, Faulk, Holmes and Gurley. So Jones is just the 6th RB this century to score at least 23 TD's.

Obviously it is beyond just a RB's control, for his team to make the playoffs or advance far in them. But it is still pretty interesting that when it's all said and done, Jones is in such elite touchdown territory.

Edited by Corleone
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Corleone said:

Adding to this, with Jones scoring another 2 TD's in the NFC Championship Game, he finished with 23 total TD's (19 regular season + 4 postseason). With that, I took a further look at the above list of RB's who from 2000--2018, scored at least 17 TD's.

How many of those 20 RB's ever scored at least 23 TD's in a total season (regular season + postseason)?
Just 5 of the 20: LDT, S.Alexander, Faulk, Holmes and Gurley. So Jones is just the 6th RB this century to score at least 23 TD's.

Obviously it is beyond just a RB's control, for his team to make the playoffs or advance far in them. But it is still pretty interesting that when it's all said and done, Jones is in such elite touchdown territory.

He just has such a nose for the end zone when he gets close, it’s actually uncanny. And what’s more impressive is that he’s not some big, bruising back that’s just bowling people over. Sure, I wouldn’t bank on him scoring 15+ tds again next year. But I’d feel very comfortable slotting him in for 10-12 minimum. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/18/2020 at 3:41 PM, 1972Miamidolphins said:

2019 is not over

Now feel free to discuss, I see hm having a first round pedigree but I feel it would be a trap

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Now feel free to discuss, I see hm having a first round pedigree but I feel it would be a trap

His current ADP 0.5PPR on fanntasypros (for those keen beans drafting in January) is RB8, ahead of RB9 and week 1-16 rushing leader Nick Chubb. Trap indeed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...