K197040

Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

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8 hours ago, ajs723 said:

CEH might be the next Barry Sanders, but I'm not taking a rookie over a proven superstar 99/100 times. Not like CEH was a Barkley or Zeke level prospect.

Jones, Sanders, Jacobs, Mixon make up a tier for me. I think all of these guys are good, but I think Jones has the best combination of situation, talent, and track record. 

Sanders was hurt last year, and is banged up again right now. I don't really care about that stuff, just putting it out there for the injury prone crowd. More importantly, everyone forgets that Philly always devolves into a committee too. All those knocks about Dillon, why no concern about Boston Scott getting all the passing down work, and Corey Clement plus street FAs playing meaningful snaps. It's inevitable.

Jacobs is right there too, but do you trust the Raider offense to be decent as much as you trust the Packers. This is a make or break year for Carr, and I have a feeling that it's going go break. I also don't know how involved he's truly going to be in the passing game.

 

With Mixon, there are just so many question marks. Why did he struggle so much last year? Will the rookie QB be any good. How well will the 2nd year head coach adjust to defenses knowing his system (ahem Matt Nagy). He also comes with some off field baggage.

 

Again, those guys all share a tier with Jones, but none are above him, for me.

 


would you put Chubb in the same tier or is he above the group you mentioned?

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9 hours ago, ajs723 said:

CEH might be the next Barry Sanders, but I'm not taking a rookie over a proven superstar 99/100 times. Not like CEH was a Barkley or Zeke level prospect.

Jones, Sanders, Jacobs, Mixon make up a tier for me. I think all of these guys are good, but I think Jones has the best combination of situation, talent, and track record. 

Sanders was hurt last year, and is banged up again right now. I don't really care about that stuff, just putting it out there for the injury prone crowd. More importantly, everyone forgets that Philly always devolves into a committee too. All those knocks about Dillon, why no concern about Boston Scott getting all the passing down work, and Corey Clement plus street FAs playing meaningful snaps. It's inevitable.

Jacobs is right there too, but do you trust the Raider offense to be decent as much as you trust the Packers. This is a make or break year for Carr, and I have a feeling that it's going go break. I also don't know how involved he's truly going to be in the passing game.

 

With Mixon, there are just so many question marks. Why did he struggle so much last year? Will the rookie QB be any good. How well will the 2nd year head coach adjust to defenses knowing his system (ahem Matt Nagy). He also comes with some off field baggage.

 

Again, those guys all share a tier with Jones, but none are above him, for me.

 

Good post.   Of the 4, I think Jones easily gets the fewest carries.  Imo, Jacobs is likely to have a significant upturn in passing volume.  They covered this on some podcast (either FFballers or CBS).  But it's not uncommon for rookie RB's to not get a ton of passing work their first year.    Especially for ones that are the clear #1 RB and receiving a lot of carries their first year.  With the idea that it takes more time to get up to speed learning the passing system and blocking scheme.   That's why Jacobs is an easy pick for me over Jones.  Sanders already had a good passing volume and now he's the "workhorse" according to the coach.   Said there's no reason to limit his touches.   Although the injury now is concerning.   I'm now having second thoughts about Mixon after the comments from the Bengals (or maybe it was a beatwriter)  that they probably won't significantly give Mixon more passing volume.

As to Raiders/Packers offense, I'm not sure that I trust either of them right now.   So I want the volume and potential pass work of Jacobs.

That being said, I do think there's a strong possibility that Jones sees an uptick in targets.  Especially if Adams can't stay on the field.

 

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43 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Good post.   Of the 4, I think Jones easily gets the fewest carries.  Imo, Jacobs is likely to have a significant upturn in passing volume.  They covered this on some podcast (either FFballers or CBS).  But it's not uncommon for rookie RB's to not get a ton of passing work their first year.    Especially for ones that are the clear #1 RB and receiving a lot of carries their first year.  With the idea that it takes more time to get up to speed learning the passing system and blocking scheme.   That's why Jacobs is an easy pick for me over Jones.  Sanders already had a good passing volume and now he's the "workhorse" according to the coach.   Said there's no reason to limit his touches.   Although the injury now is concerning.   I'm now having second thoughts about Mixon after the comments from the Bengals (or maybe it was a beatwriter)  that they probably won't significantly give Mixon more passing volume.

As to Raiders/Packers offense, I'm not sure that I trust either of them right now.   So I want the volume and potential pass work of Jacobs.

That being said, I do think there's a strong possibility that Jones sees an uptick in targets.  Especially if Adams can't stay on the field.

 

Didn't the Raiders keep one of their pass-catching backs and bring in another? Everything I've heard about Jacobs makes it seem unlikely he'll see a massive uptick and catches. 

The Packers are so damn strange. They spent their first 2 draft picks on positions where they were very strong while they had significant weaknesses at lots of other positions. I trust Jones's talent. I think he's great. But I also think more and more Matt LaFleur is a boob and he will spend the season giving Dillon every carry inside the 5 hoping he'll fall in to the end zone just to try to prove that the absolutely dumb-a** drafting of him in the second round wasn't a total waste. 

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2 hours ago, ponchsox said:


would you put Chubb in the same tier or is he above the group you mentioned?

PPR, he would be top of next tier. Hunt may be the better value in that backfield. 

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

Good post.   Of the 4, I think Jones easily gets the fewest carries.  Imo, Jacobs is likely to have a significant upturn in passing volume.  They covered this on some podcast (either FFballers or CBS).  But it's not uncommon for rookie RB's to not get a ton of passing work their first year.    Especially for ones that are the clear #1 RB and receiving a lot of carries their first year.  With the idea that it takes more time to get up to speed learning the passing system and blocking scheme.   That's why Jacobs is an easy pick for me over Jones.  Sanders already had a good passing volume and now he's the "workhorse" according to the coach.   Said there's no reason to limit his touches.   Although the injury now is concerning.   I'm now having second thoughts about Mixon after the comments from the Bengals (or maybe it was a beatwriter)  that they probably won't significantly give Mixon more passing volume.

As to Raiders/Packers offense, I'm not sure that I trust either of them right now.   So I want the volume and potential pass work of Jacobs.

That being said, I do think there's a strong possibility that Jones sees an uptick in targets.  Especially if Adams can't stay on the field.

 

I'll agree with you on pure carry volume. Although, without looking it up,  Jones probably had the fewest Carrie's per start of any of those guys. Didn't hurt him last year (even with an average TD total, he still would have been above those guys).

Jones is sort of the Tyler Lockett of RBs. The pure volume isn't there, but he just maximizes what he gets, if that makes sense.

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

I'll agree with you on pure carry volume. Although, without looking it up,  Jones probably had the fewest Carrie's per start of any of those guys. Didn't hurt him last year (even with an average TD total, he still would have been above those guys).

Jones is sort of the Tyler Lockett of RBs. The pure volume isn't there, but he just maximizes what he gets, if that makes sense.

I agree if it was just Jones and Williams.  I think Dillon takes the most carries away from Williams.  But he will also take some high quality carriers away from Jones.   And it's still possible that Williams gets some receiving work.  He's not bad at all in that role.

To me, Jones is the Amari Cooper of RB.  He's going to finish top 10 and will win some weeks for you.  But he'll also give you sub 10 several times.  It all depends on your risk/reward profile.  I just can't take him as my RB1 and hopefully not RB2.    I want consistent production from those spots. 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I agree if it was just Jones and Williams.  I think Dillon takes the most carries away from Williams.  But he will also take some high quality carriers away from Jones.   And it's still possible that Williams gets some receiving work.  He's not bad at all in that role.

To me, Jones is the Amari Cooper of RB.  He's going to finish top 10 and will win some weeks for you.  But he'll also give you sub 10 several times.  It all depends on your risk/reward profile.  I just can't take him as my RB1 and hopefully not RB2.    I want consistent production from those spots. 

 

 

Yes, but just like with Cooper, those concerns are probably overblown. Yes, both will hurt you some weeks. But that's true of everyone in their range. If you're looking for an RB1 who's going to be a monster every week, with no duds, get one of the top 3 or 4 guys. Outside of that, everyone has a lower weekly floor. Few have the ceiling that Jones possesses.

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3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Yes, but just like with Cooper, those concerns are probably overblown. Yes, both will hurt you some weeks. But that's true of everyone in their range. If you're looking for an RB1 who's going to be a monster every week, with no duds, get one of the top 3 or 4 guys. Outside of that, everyone has a lower weekly floor. Few have the ceiling that Jones possesses.

 

With the boom/bust guys like people saying Jones is, IMO its good to have one of them on your roster, its when you draft 2 of them in the first 4 rounds your setting yourself up for failure, so as long as im not pairing jones with Hill or another player that has massive weeks or meh weeks, im fine with jones in the late 2nd

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23 hours ago, K197040 said:

I agree if it was just Jones and Williams.  I think Dillon takes the most carries away from Williams.  But he will also take some high quality carriers away from Jones.   And it's still possible that Williams gets some receiving work.  He's not bad at all in that role.

To me, Jones is the Amari Cooper of RB.  He's going to finish top 10 and will win some weeks for you.  But he'll also give you sub 10 several times.  It all depends on your risk/reward profile.  I just can't take him as my RB1 and hopefully not RB2.    I want consistent production from those spots. 

 

 

Jones fell to me in the 3rd round at pick 3.3 in a recent 10 team, 0.5 PPR draft I had and I ended up taking him.  Was going to take a wr in the 3rd but I went rb-rb-rb with my first 3 picks because I thought that Jones was very good value there.  He will be my flex starter and I like his potential to have some blow-up weeks like last year.

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All the handwringing over backups lol 

every team drafts players they think can fill a role.   The Pack have already publicly stated they want to get a deal done with Jones sooner than later.   This Lafleur running attack is a perfect system for AJones-  and he will continue to be the feature back with as many touches as he can handle.     
The new Mike Alstott and J Williams will share the scraps.     No need to complicate a simple situation. 

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6 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

All the handwringing over backups lol 

every team drafts players they think can fill a role.   The Pack have already publicly stated they want to get a deal done with Jones sooner than later.   This Lafleur running attack is a perfect system for AJones-  and he will continue to be the feature back with as many touches as he can handle.     
The new Mike Alstott and J Williams will share the scraps.     No need to complicate a simple situation. 

Wtf. As many caries as he can handle?

I guess if you mean “as many carries as LeFleur thinks he can handle”

And that’s about 50% of the teams carries during the season.

One thing that could work in Jones favor is that I can see LeFleur lean on him more if they don’t have success like last year.

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On 8/21/2020 at 1:35 PM, kmoore1521 said:

 

With the boom/bust guys like people saying Jones is, IMO its good to have one of them on your roster, its when you draft 2 of them in the first 4 rounds your setting yourself up for failure, so as long as im not pairing jones with Hill or another player that has massive weeks or meh weeks, im fine with jones in the late 2nd

 

On 8/21/2020 at 1:35 PM, kmoore1521 said:

 

With the boom/bust guys like people saying Jones is, IMO its good to have one of them on your roster, its when you draft 2 of them in the first 4 rounds your setting yourself up for failure, so as long as im not pairing jones with Hill or another player that has massive weeks or meh weeks, im fine with jones in the late 2nd

Not sure that’s true as much for WR.  Woods is someone that I’d rather have as my WR1 because of the consistency.  He may never put up a week winning game but he won’t give me sub 10 ly games.   There’s no way I’d take Cooper as my WR1.  

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24 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

Not sure that’s true as much for WR.  Woods is someone that I’d rather have as my WR1 because of the consistency.  He may never put up a week winning game but he won’t give me sub 10 ly games.   There’s no way I’d take Cooper as my WR1.  

When drafting wr's, I usually like to take a steady producer at one spot like a Robert Woods and then take a chance on a guy with more upside who is capable of matchup-winning weeks but who may not be as consistent at the other starting spot.  That strategy usually works for me more often than not.

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17 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

All the handwringing over backups lol 

every team drafts players they think can fill a role.   The Pack have already publicly stated they want to get a deal done with Jones sooner than later.   This Lafleur running attack is a perfect system for AJones-  and he will continue to be the feature back with as many touches as he can handle.     
The new Mike Alstott and J Williams will share the scraps.     No need to complicate a simple situation. 

The Packers aren’t resigning Jones.  With their starting lt and c both needing new contracts, and drafting a RA in the 2nd round, that became obvious right after the draft.

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25 minutes ago, Loadedbrewer said:

The Packers aren’t resigning Jones.  With their starting lt and c both needing new contracts, and drafting a RA in the 2nd round, that became obvious right after the draft.

 

Yep, spent a 2nd round pick on AJ Dillon, plus a robust RB free agent class next year (maybe sign a lower level/cost effective backup to Dillon - biased because I drafted him in a keeper league).

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Loadedbrewer said:

The Packers aren’t resigning Jones.  With their starting lt and c both needing new contracts, and drafting a RA in the 2nd round, that became obvious right after the draft.


Creative salary cap construction would easily allow them to sign both linemen and Jones.    It’s just about what years you guarantee how much money.    Teams like Dallas and KC have proven this possible over and again.  

That said you could be proven right- but it’s one thing to WANT AJ Dillon and Jordan Love to be future stars... and another to see it manifest on the field. 

Regardless, it matters little for this year.  Jones is the lead back no matter what happens with his contract.  Giddy Up.    

 

Edited by Impreza178
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Is it just me or does Jones have a pretty violent running style? Seems to take on a lot of contact out there, seems to invite it really. Kinda reminds me of Chris Carson who is also often injured, that scares me a bit.

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Posted (edited)
On 8/23/2020 at 6:20 AM, daethfromabove1979 said:

Is it just me or does Jones have a pretty violent running style? Seems to take on a lot of contact out there, seems to invite it really. Kinda reminds me of Chris Carson who is also often injured, that scares me a bit.

Yeah he does have a quick burst and usually has heavy collision once he gets to the second level but he is an elite football player without a doubt. His vision and playmaking is elite. He was averaging 5+ ypc his first two seasons, and it wasn't because he was bulldozing through people with his size. But yes, he finds a hole, and he hits it hard with his quick burst, and he's not exaclty the biggest rb to be taking hits.

 

Regardless, I see him as a Jamaal Charles type. He can do it all and make something out of nothing.

Edited by n4sa

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On 8/22/2020 at 1:47 PM, Impreza178 said:

All the handwringing over backups lol 

every team drafts players they think can fill a role.   The Pack have already publicly stated they want to get a deal done with Jones sooner than later.   This Lafleur running attack is a perfect system for AJones-  and he will continue to be the feature back with as many touches as he can handle.     
The new Mike Alstott and J Williams will share the scraps.     No need to complicate a simple situation. 

 

well, i hear tell earlier in this thread that the Pack will be down 21-0 before they even get off the bus every week ...

HOW ARE THEY GONNA RUN AT ALL?!??!?

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On 8/23/2020 at 4:34 AM, Loadedbrewer said:

The Packers aren’t resigning Jones.  With their starting lt and c both needing new contracts, and drafting a RA in the 2nd round, that became obvious right after the draft.

FWIW

Aaron Jones and a new contract are a top priority for the Packers

Ian Rapoport is reporting that the Packers are prioritizing a new contract for the Aaron Jones.

Fantasy Impact

Rapoport said this one air while discussing the contract the the Packers gave to NT Kenny Clark earlier on Sunday. While Jones has certainly showed his value as a touchdown-machine over the last couple of years (24 TD's since 2018), the Packers spent this year's second-round pick on Boston College running back A.J. Dillon which crowds up the backfield. Both Jones and Jamaal Williams have contracts that expire after the 2020 season, so it'll be interesting who the Packers plan to lock up longterm.

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So with the season starting this week who are we buying as the best cuff, Dillon or Williams? I had the option for both at the end of the draft and went Dillon even with the news of him being number 3. Thoughts??

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Strangely enough, just drafted Aaron Jones for the very first time. Pretty much all the RBs flew off the board, and I had to reach a bit. Anyone able to reassure/terrify me in 30 words or less?

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4 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

Strangely enough, just drafted Aaron Jones for the very first time. Pretty much all the RBs flew off the board, and I had to reach a bit. Anyone able to reassure/terrify me in 30 words or less?

 

AJ Dillon

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1 hour ago, UcanTry said:

So with the season starting this week who are we buying as the best cuff, Dillon or Williams? I had the option for both at the end of the draft and went Dillon even with the news of him being number 3. Thoughts??

Williams

5 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

Strangely enough, just drafted Aaron Jones for the very first time. Pretty much all the RBs flew off the board, and I had to reach a bit. Anyone able to reassure/terrify me in 30 words or less?

Hard to argue 16 TD and hes close to signing a big extension. Hes very important part of their team.

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It's been reported from the Packers side and Jones side that they're working on a extension.  That would indicate that both sides plan on Jones still being heavily involved.

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