K197040

Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

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All week long I was planning on offering AJ and another player to the Barkley owner for Saquon and his worst player. I couldn’t hit send cause the future projections were all in my favor and too low for him. Didn’t want to offend him. Thanks YahOooooo! 

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11 hours ago, Tomei7 said:

Hahaha....u keep changing ur list of TOP RBs from one week to another. What happen with Drake, Mixon, Fournette, Jacobs, and Sanders, who u had above Aaron Jones? And then u just added Hunt and Jonathan Taylor over him just now 🤔....btw u swung and missed again on CEH....he is not a workhorse, he’s in a 3way split with D Williams and Darwin Thompson rn. Let me guess u will add Chris Carson and Sony Michel as being more talented in ur next reply?

From a pure talent stand point. Yes I would take Fournette, Mixon, and Jacobs over aaron jones. 

Now for fantasy Fournette got traded which is before I made that comment, I would have jones over him right now....

Mixon I am going to give one more week but his snap rates are concerning as well as gios involvement, but I would still have him over Jones. 

Jacobs clearly over jones now that he is involved in the passing game.

Sanders got injured so time will tell, but I was never a fan check my posts.

 

I think week 1 is the more of what we will see with Jones which is about a 60/40 snap count and a 60/40 touch total with Williams and Dillon being the 40%. This is what they did all last year as well. 

I would rather have guys like:

Henry 75% snap rate, 34 touches compared to 2 for his back ups week 1. Week 2: 25 to 4

CEH 67% snap rate, 25 touches compared to 9 for his back ups week 1. 16 to 5 week 2 (so not in a committee at all esp with D.Williams being hurt)

Zeke: 88% snap rate week 1, 25 to 4 on touches week 1, 

CMC: I am not even going to look it up but I imagine his snaps/touches were in the 90%s

I could go on, but you get the point. Jones generally handles about a 60/40 split of snaps and touches and I think week 2 is a outlier. I follow the touches and snap counts which lead to more opportunities that is what it is all about for Rbs and Wrs and what I want. That is why he is not a top 5 FANTASY BACK for me. 

I don't think this ultra efficiency from Jones is sustainable and it will lead to a lot of dud weeks , but with all the injuries maybe having a guy getting that low of snaps compared to the workhorses like CMC, Zeke, Henry maybe its not the end of the world. 

 

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@nmartinez12443 I mean, you’re wasting an inordinate amount of your own time trying to gaslight us. I’ve kinda lost track of your underlying argument, but just on that last post:

1. From a pure talent stand point you’d rather have some other guys. Sure, whatever. It’s fantasy football. I’ll take the points please.

2. It’s not sustainable. Which bit? 40+ ppg? Thank you for your insight. Top 5 RB scoring? He sustained that all of last season.

3. You’d rather have guys like CMC, Deke and Henry? Again, thank you for your insight.

4. CEH is the one interesting discussion, but he was still drafted ahead of Aaron Jones in almost every league in the world. Saying you’d rather have him is an interesting matter of opinion, but sure, in round one I’d have taken CEH over Aaron Jones. Most of us would. Right now, Aaron Jones might be the best value pick in all of FF. There will be regression to the mean, but can you just give it a rest for a bit?

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4 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

@nmartinez12443 I mean, you’re wasting an inordinate amount of your own time trying to gaslight us. I’ve kinda lost track of your underlying argument, but just on that last post:

1. From a pure talent stand point you’d rather have some other guys. Sure, whatever. It’s fantasy football. I’ll take the points please.

2. It’s not sustainable. Which bit? 40+ ppg? Thank you for your insight. Top 5 RB scoring? He sustained that all of last season.

3. You’d rather have guys like CMC, Deke and Henry? Again, thank you for your insight.

4. CEH is the one interesting discussion, but he was still drafted ahead of Aaron Jones in almost every league in the world. Saying you’d rather have him is an interesting matter of opinion, but sure, in round one I’d have taken CEH over Aaron Jones. Most of us would. Right now, Aaron Jones might be the best value pick in all of FF. There will be regression to the mean, but can you just give it a rest for a bit?

I was responding to the poster who said he was a top 5 fantasy player/talent and I said he was not and gave my reasons, thats all.

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22 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

From a pure talent stand point. Yes I would take Fournette, Mixon, and Jacobs over aaron jones. 

Now for fantasy Fournette got traded which is before I made that comment, I would have jones over him right now....

Mixon I am going to give one more week but his snap rates are concerning as well as gios involvement, but I would still have him over Jones. 

Jacobs clearly over jones now that he is involved in the passing game.

Sanders got injured so time will tell, but I was never a fan check my posts.

 

I think week 1 is the more of what we will see with Jones which is about a 60/40 snap count and a 60/40 touch total with Williams and Dillon being the 40%. This is what they did all last year as well. 

I would rather have guys like:

Henry 75% snap rate, 34 touches compared to 2 for his back ups week 1. Week 2: 25 to 4

CEH 67% snap rate, 25 touches compared to 9 for his back ups week 1. 16 to 5 week 2 (so not in a committee at all esp with D.Williams being hurt)

Zeke: 88% snap rate week 1, 25 to 4 on touches week 1, 

CMC: I am not even going to look it up but I imagine his snaps/touches were in the 90%s

I could go on, but you get the point. Jones generally handles about a 60/40 split of snaps and touches and I think week 2 is a outlier. I follow the touches and snap counts which lead to more opportunities that is what it is all about for Rbs and Wrs and what I want. That is why he is not a top 5 FANTASY BACK for me. 

I don't think this ultra efficiency from Jones is sustainable and it will lead to a lot of dud weeks , but with all the injuries maybe having a guy getting that low of snaps compared to the workhorses like CMC, Zeke, Henry maybe its not the end of the world. 

 

Just to address this part specifically--Jones was in the top-5 in points-per-fantasy-production for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. If he has shown ANYTHING it's that he's extremely efficient, you could almost call it sustainable?

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4 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

@nmartinez12443 I mean, you’re wasting an inordinate amount of your own time trying to gaslight us. I’ve kinda lost track of your underlying argument, but just on that last post:

1. From a pure talent stand point you’d rather have some other guys. Sure, whatever. It’s fantasy football. I’ll take the points please.

2. It’s not sustainable. Which bit? 40+ ppg? Thank you for your insight. Top 5 RB scoring? He sustained that all of last season.

3. You’d rather have guys like CMC, Deke and Henry? Again, thank you for your insight.

4. CEH is the one interesting discussion, but he was still drafted ahead of Aaron Jones in almost every league in the world. Saying you’d rather have him is an interesting matter of opinion, but sure, in round one I’d have taken CEH over Aaron Jones. Most of us would. Right now, Aaron Jones might be the best value pick in all of FF. There will be regression to the mean, but can you just give it a rest for a bit?

Spot on @leffe186!!

THANKS 🙏🏼(used all my reactions on this thread I’m all out until tomorrow). 

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Aaron Jones currently has the most targets of any RB in the league so far in 2020 with 14.

He's tied for the league lead among all players in Red Zone targets with 6 (again that is just passing targets).

Here he is skying up to win a jump ball against a corner yesterday:

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1307758374126321666?s=20

 

The Packers treat him as a WR and a RB. That's what makes him so valuable. His touches are money touches. He gets downfield and redzone targets, and redzone carries (he had more redzone carries than Henry and Dalvin Cook last season).

 

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15 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I stopped reading here 

Fournette, like barkley  was a top 5 pick there is a reason for that, looked to be a generational talent. Look what he did yesterday when he wasn't facing 9 guys in the box like his jag days. 

Fournette can do everything Jones can do but with 3 inches and 21 pounds more than him. 

 

That being said this is fantasy and yes Jones is superior to Fournette right now. 

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Fun fact: since 2019, there have been 17 performances from a RB/WR/TE that have resulted in 40 or more PPR FP's. 
Aaron Jones has 3 of those 17 performances (and 2 of the top 5).
No other player has had 3 such games (CMC and Mike Evans have 2 each; nobody else has more than 1).
Of those 17 performances, 6 have come from RB's.
Meaning Jones has 3 of the top 6 RB performances since 2019.

Here's the full list:

image.png.b0b9d8fc051327623f13da739c873ae1.png

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1 minute ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Fournette, like barkley  was a top 5 pick there is a reason for that, looked to be a generational talent. Look what he did yesterday when he wasn't facing 9 guys in the box like his jag days. 

Fournette can do everything Jones can do but with 3 inches and 21 pounds more than him. 

 

That being said this is fantasy and yes Jones is superior to Fournette right now. 

Watch the highlight in my previous post. I'm sorry, Fournette cannot do that.

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33 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Fournette, like barkley  was a top 5 pick there is a reason for that, looked to be a generational talent. Look what he did yesterday when he wasn't facing 9 guys in the box like his jag days. 

Fournette can do everything Jones can do but with 3 inches and 21 pounds more than him. 

 

That being said this is fantasy and yes Jones is superior to Fournette right now. 

Wait, wait, let me make sure I understand this. You’re saying that Fournette is more talented than Jones because people thought he was better than he was three years ago and he was drafted high? Because what exactly is he better than Jones at, aside from weighing more? We’re talking about the guy that Jax couldn’t give away for a late round pick a couple months ago, correct? 

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36 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Fournette, like barkley  was a top 5 pick there is a reason for that, looked to be a generational talent. Look what he did yesterday when he wasn't facing 9 guys in the box like his jag days. 

Fournette can do everything Jones can do but with 3 inches and 21 pounds more than him. 

 

That being said this is fantasy and yes Jones is superior to Fournette right now. 

Why make that argument? It disrespects every lower pick that has been vastly superior to Fournette. Fournette is pedestrian and that's coming from an LSU and Bucs fan. He's not lived up to his draft stock at all. You do know that many scouts do get it wrong sometimes, right?

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This thread is absolutely hilarious. The mental gymnastics people are doing to deny that Aaron Jones is an elite talent. It's amazing. 

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17 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

This thread is absolutely hilarious. The mental gymnastics people are doing to deny that Aaron Jones is an elite talent. It's amazing. 

Had he been put on the Saints and given the same role as Kamara, we'd have the phrase, "next Aarron Jones".

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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Fournette, like barkley  was a top 5 pick there is a reason for that, looked to be a generational talent. Look what he did yesterday when he wasn't facing 9 guys in the box like his jag days. 

Fournette can do everything Jones can do but with 3 inches and 21 pounds more than him. 

 

That being said this is fantasy and yes Jones is superior to Fournette right now. 

you were wrong before and you're wrong about this. just admit it and move on. Don't do any of this "Jones is better FOR FANTASY RIGHT NOW AT THIS MINUTE" nonsense. Just take the L. It's cool. None of us is correct all of the time. Just do what I do when i'm completely and embarrassingly wrong about a player--duck out of a thread, don't visit for a few days until a couple pages get added and your post gets moved down and everybody forgets about it, then show back up. This fighting retreat you're attempting is not working and is simply prolonging the agony.

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12 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Had he been put on the Saints and given the same role as Kamara, we'd have the phrase, "next Aarron Jones".

Forget Kamara. His best comparable according to playerprofiler is CMC. 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/aaron-jones/

Those three, and Barkley, represent best of the best of this generation of RBs. Elite pass catching. Elite agility. Elite tackle breaking. 

Edited by ajs723

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

Fun fact: since 2019, there have been 17 performances from a RB/WR/TE that have resulted in 40 or more PPR FP's. 
Aaron Jones has 3 of those 17 performances (and 2 of the top 5).
No other player has had 3 such games (CMC and Mike Evans have 2 each; nobody else has more than 1).
Of those 17 performances, 6 have come from RB's.
Meaning Jones has 3 of the top 6 RB performances since 2019.

Here's the full list:

image.png.b0b9d8fc051327623f13da739c873ae1.png

 

Pretty crazy that the Top 3 all came on the same day too. (10/6/19)

Nice info! 

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15 minutes ago, rollobobo said:

 

Pretty crazy that the Top 3 all came on the same day too. (10/6/19)

Nice info! 

I started Jones and Fuller on that day. Imagine having all 3! 

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31 minutes ago, rollobobo said:

 

Pretty crazy that the Top 3 all came on the same day too. (10/6/19)

Nice info! 

 

16 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I started Jones and Fuller on that day. Imagine having all 3! 

I was wondering if anyone else was going to notice that as far as the 10/6 date 😄
(I had Jones but faced CMC that day)

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AJ is a free agent after this year. He has said he's interested in an extension and supposedly talks are ongoing. His performance to date will only drive his price higher and he may choose to test the market. If GB does not plan to meet his asking price, they will ride him hard and put him away wet. Unless an extension is reached, I would not expect his touches to decrease.

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1 minute ago, pan55 said:

AJ is a free agent after this year. He has said he's interested in an extension and supposedly talks are ongoing. His performance to date will only drive his price higher and he may choose to test the market. If GB does not plan to meet his asking price, they will ride him hard and put him away wet. Unless an extension is reached, I would not expect his touches to decrease.

I still don't see this as a negative, regardless. We've seen how good he is in Green Bay, so it's obviously good news if he signs an extension. If he leaves in free agency though, I don't view it as a bad thing. Whoever is willing to pay him the money he'll command will definitely view him as "the guy". So even though he'll possibly be going to lesser offense, he'll also be moving into a bigger workload. 

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The dude you all are arguing with exaggerated Packers passing numbers earlier ITT, got called out and proven wrong, then moved his goal posts and doubled down on his actual false claim. Best to just ignore him lol

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