Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

[K197040 2,412]

26 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I still don't see this as a negative, regardless. We've seen how good he is in Green Bay, so it's obviously good news if he signs an extension. If he leaves in free agency though, I don't view it as a bad thing. Whoever is willing to pay him the money he'll command will definitely view him as "the guy". So even though he'll possibly be going to lesser offense, he'll also be moving into a bigger workload. 

I agree in general but some offenses are so bad that it could hurt him.   I would not want to see him under Gase regardless.

I'd love to see him on the Bucs. 

Edited September 21, 2020 by K197040

[yossarian 3,519]

1 minute ago, K197040 said:

I agree in general but some offenses are so bad that it could hurt him.   I would not want to see him under Gase regardless.

I'd love to see him on the Bucs. 

of course the worst case scenario is he becomes a free agent right as the Jets are deciding to move on from Bell. 

*shudder*

[ajs723 3,188]

9 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I agree in general but some offenses are so bad that it could hurt him.   I would not want to see him under Gase regardless.

I'd love to see him on the Bucs. 

Counterargument, I don't think Adam Gase will ever be an NFL coach again after this year. 

[yossarian 3,519]

Just now, ajs723 said:

Counterargument, I don't think Adam Gase will ever be an NFL coach again after this year. 

you, sir, are completely over-estimating NFL owners and GMs.

[SyNdicateZ 1,379]

Overall #1RB. 

[Corleone 1,961]

I took a look at where Aaron Jones has ranked amongst all RB's in PPR, by the end of each week since 2019 (not counting any potential changes based on tonight's MNF game to close out Week 2). Here are the results:




 

[Corleone 1,961]

Continuing on a theme, here is how Jones has ranked on a weekly basis, since getting a larger role in 2018...

[Corleone 1,961]

Continuing on a theme, here is how Jones has ranked on a weekly basis, since getting a larger role in 2018...

[Corleone 1,961]

Through Week 3, Jones has the most targets (8) inside the red zone for any player in the NFL. He also is tied for the second-most targets (4) inside the 10.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/redzone-receiving.htm

[FitzMagic 4,260]

On 9/21/2020 at 2:08 PM, yossarian said:

you, sir, are completely over-estimating NFL owners and GMs.

He will be the Falcons next head coach. 

[yossarian 3,519]

4 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

He will be the Falcons next head coach. 

[ajs723 3,188]

4 hours ago, Corleone said:

Continuing on a theme, here is how Jones has ranked on a weekly basis, since getting a larger role in 2018...

He has 18 top 16 RB weeks out of 27 games. I like how people argued he was inconsistent. 

Beyond that, he's had basically 4 bad games in almost 2 seasons worth of games. 

[K197040 2,412]

12 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

He has 18 top 16 RB weeks out of 27 games. I like how people argued he was inconsistent. 

Beyond that, he's had basically 4 bad games in almost 2 seasons worth of games. 

Because he was inconsistent last year.   He had those 4 bad games in one year.  And it wasn't just low end RB2 bad games.  It was 4 games where he was an RB4 or worse.   Compare that rate to the other RB1s. 

I have no idea why you can't acknowledge that.

Edited September 29, 2020 by K197040

[ajs723 3,188]

11 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Because he was inconsistent last year.   He had those 4 bad games in one year.  And it wasn't just low end RB2 bad games.  It was 4 games where he was an RB4 or worse.   Compare that rate to the other RB1s. 

I have no idea why you can't acknowledge that.

I mean, Chubb had 4 garbage games last year too. Henry had 3 garbage games (and 3 more that were close). Ekeler too. Even Kamara had 2. 

 

 There are maybe 3 or 4 guys who aren't going to have a few bad games per year. I just don't think that knock is fair. 

Edited September 29, 2020 by ajs723

[K197040 2,412]

10 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I mean, Chubb had 4 garbage games last year too. Henry had 3 garbage games (and 3 more that were close). Ekeler too. Even Kamara had 2. 

 

 There are maybe 3 or 4 guys who aren't going to have a few bad games per year. I just don't think that knock is fair. 

I guess it depends on where you draw the line.  Chubb had two games outside of the top 36.  Ekeler just had one.   Henry had one.   This is half point PPR.

I don't know what his definition of "inconsistent" is.   But 4 complete busts out of 16 makes him the most inconsistent of the top 15 or so RBs.   My main point in continuing to bring this up is that I don't believe you can just look at the end of the season finishes.  

Edited September 29, 2020 by K197040

[JoeJoe88 1,150]

I don’t know why people are so fixated on last year. The reality is THIS year he’s had no less than 16 carries in a game and no less than 4 targets in a game yet. The popular narrative of his fantasy demise was clearly exaggerated, and incorrect. 

[Proteus 3,794]

1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I don’t know why people are so fixated on last year. The reality is THIS year he’s had no less than 16 carries in a game and no less than 4 targets in a game yet. The popular narrative of his fantasy demise was clearly exaggerated, and incorrect. 

But...

 

AJ Dillon’s got thighs!

[JoeJoe88 1,150]

1 minute ago, Proteus said:

But...

 

AJ Dillon’s got thighs!

He’s going to steal AJ’s tds! 

[Proteus 3,794]

8 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He’s going to steal AJ’s tds! 

His big ‘ol TDs?

[ajs723 3,188]

1 hour ago, K197040 said:

I guess it depends on where you draw the line.  Chubb had two games outside of the top 36.  Ekeler just had one.   Henry had one.   This is half point PPR.

I don't know what his definition of "inconsistent" is.   But 4 complete busts out of 16 makes him the most inconsistent of the top 15 or so RBs.   My main point in continuing to bring this up is that I don't believe you can just look at the end of the season finishes.  

I'm talking PPR. Chubb had 4 weeks under 10 points. Those are garbage weeks. His 8 point game vs. Jones's 6 point game is a meaningless distinction. Technically, he may have finished as RB 34 or 35 while Jones finished as RB 45 his 6 point week, but both are complete dud games. I don't know where the line is, but top 36 ain't it.  

Edited September 29, 2020 by ajs723

[K197040 2,412]

7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I'm talking PPR. Chubb had 4 weeks under 10 points. Those are garbage weeks. His 8 point game vs. Jones's 6 point game is a meaningless distinction. Technically, he may have finished as RB 34 or 35 while Jones finished as RB 45 his 6 point week, but both are complete dud games. I don't know where the line is, but top 36 ain't it.  

Fair enough.   We can agree to disagree.   In any event, so far, things look great for Jones this season.   And if he's going to continue to get 16 carries, some passing work, and work inside the 20, then I'll be the first in line to admit my pre-season concerns didn't come to fruition.

[yossarian 3,519]

His upcoming schedule looks pretty juicy too. Alt, Houston, Minny, and Jax are all pretty sweet matchups with 2 tougher games against SF and TB sprinkled in there. 

[Mrmann1 83]

On 9/21/2020 at 10:23 AM, nmartinez12443 said:

From a pure talent stand point. Yes I would take Fournette, Mixon, and Jacobs over aaron jones. 

Now for fantasy Fournette got traded which is before I made that comment, I would have jones over him right now....

Mixon I am going to give one more week but his snap rates are concerning as well as gios involvement, but I would still have him over Jones. 

Jacobs clearly over jones now that he is involved in the passing game.

Sanders got injured so time will tell, but I was never a fan check my posts.

 

I think week 1 is the more of what we will see with Jones which is about a 60/40 snap count and a 60/40 touch total with Williams and Dillon being the 40%. This is what they did all last year as well. 

I would rather have guys like:

Henry 75% snap rate, 34 touches compared to 2 for his back ups week 1. Week 2: 25 to 4

CEH 67% snap rate, 25 touches compared to 9 for his back ups week 1. 16 to 5 week 2 (so not in a committee at all esp with D.Williams being hurt)

Zeke: 88% snap rate week 1, 25 to 4 on touches week 1, 

CMC: I am not even going to look it up but I imagine his snaps/touches were in the 90%s

I could go on, but you get the point. Jones generally handles about a 60/40 split of snaps and touches and I think week 2 is a outlier. I follow the touches and snap counts which lead to more opportunities that is what it is all about for Rbs and Wrs and what I want. That is why he is not a top 5 FANTASY BACK for me. 

I don't think this ultra efficiency from Jones is sustainable and it will lead to a lot of dud weeks , but with all the injuries maybe having a guy getting that low of snaps compared to the workhorses like CMC, Zeke, Henry maybe its not the end of the world. 

 

I stopped reading after Mixon>Jones. Surprised I let myself go that much past you saying Uncle Lenny>Jones. Yikes. Must be a vikings fan. 

Edited October 2, 2020 by Mrmann1

[nmartinez12443 558]

50 minutes ago, Mrmann1 said:

I stopped reading after Mixon>Jones. Surprised I let myself go that much past you saying Uncle Lenny>Jones. Yikes. Must be a vikings fan. 

In terms of real life talent yes Mixon > Jones.

[Mrmann1 83]

2 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

In terms of real life talent yes Mixon > Jones.

Fair enough. But you said in fantasy you'd have Mixon, and jacobs "clearly" over him. I just don't see it. Pass catching rb with above average O line (if I'm not mistaken), good pass catching weapons to keep box clear, HOF qb at the top of his game. I just think his usage and td upside in this offense are massive again. Jones>>Mixon in fantasy for me.