K197040

Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

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As a new Jones owner, the main thing that concerns me is his snap counts. I’ve never had him before this year, but it’s weird for a guy with his value to be in this kind of a timeshare (not to say that it never happens). He played 54%, 48%, and 71% of the snaps in the three games so far.

 

He managed to score 41 in non-PPR in that 48% game, so clearly it hasn’t stopped him so far. Is this just his role on the team? Seems like a Tyler Lockett situation where everyone assumes he’ll regress but it never happens.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, ilikepieman said:

As a new Jones owner, the main thing that concerns me is his snap counts. I’ve never had him before this year, but it’s weird for a guy with his value to be in this kind of a timeshare (not to say that it never happens). He played 54%, 48%, and 71% of the snaps in the three games so far.

 

He managed to score 41 in non-PPR in that 48% game, so clearly it hasn’t stopped him so far. Is this just his role on the team? Seems like a Tyler Lockett situation where everyone assumes he’ll regress but it never happens.

Enjoy your new RB1. This guy is a beast. I wouldnt worry about his % snap share. Just stay Healthy!

Edited by SyNdicateZ
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On 9/21/2020 at 7:23 AM, nmartinez12443 said:

From a pure talent stand point. Yes I would take Fournette, Mixon, and Jacobs over aaron jones. 

Now for fantasy Fournette got traded which is before I made that comment, I would have jones over him right now....

Mixon I am going to give one more week but his snap rates are concerning as well as gios involvement, but I would still have him over Jones. 

Jacobs clearly over jones now that he is involved in the passing game.

Sanders got injured so time will tell, but I was never a fan check my posts.

 

I think week 1 is the more of what we will see with Jones which is about a 60/40 snap count and a 60/40 touch total with Williams and Dillon being the 40%. This is what they did all last year as well. 

I would rather have guys like:

Henry 75% snap rate, 34 touches compared to 2 for his back ups week 1. Week 2: 25 to 4

CEH 67% snap rate, 25 touches compared to 9 for his back ups week 1. 16 to 5 week 2 (so not in a committee at all esp with D.Williams being hurt)

Zeke: 88% snap rate week 1, 25 to 4 on touches week 1, 

CMC: I am not even going to look it up but I imagine his snaps/touches were in the 90%s

I could go on, but you get the point. Jones generally handles about a 60/40 split of snaps and touches and I think week 2 is a outlier. I follow the touches and snap counts which lead to more opportunities that is what it is all about for Rbs and Wrs and what I want. That is why he is not a top 5 FANTASY BACK for me. 

I don't think this ultra efficiency from Jones is sustainable and it will lead to a lot of dud weeks , but with all the injuries maybe having a guy getting that low of snaps compared to the workhorses like CMC, Zeke, Henry maybe its not the end of the world. 

 

 

Wow, just WOW. There are very few guys that enter the NFL who despite being limited in touches get it done. There are even fewer guys who completely dominate the way Aaron Jones does in the NFL. It has very little to do with Aaron Rodgers because Aaron Jones has been doing it with whatever QB they put behind him for years now. He may not be an elite NFL combine specimen, but he has natural instinct and talent that separates him from players like the ones you mentioned.

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I'm jealous of Jones owners every year because of how much of a TD machine this guy is. Just guaranteed points, high floor. Would kill to have him, but alas, did not fall into place this year.

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17 minutes ago, n4sa said:

 

Wow, just WOW. There are very few guys that enter the NFL who despite being limited in touches get it done. There are even fewer guys who completely dominate the way Aaron Jones does in the NFL. It has very little to do with Aaron Rodgers because Aaron Jones has been doing it with whatever QB they put behind him for years now. He may not be an elite NFL combine specimen, but he has natural instinct and talent that separates him from players like the ones you mentioned.


I’m not disputing that AJ is a stud but this is his 4th year. With the exception of 9 games his rookie year.... Jones has only had 1 man as his QB. 
 

Also, except for rare instances they don’t put QB’s behind RB’s. 

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Crazy that ppl still doubt Ajones 

And every year he’s out produced his Adp. Wild. 

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Posted (edited)

He went criminally late in drafts. I'm not sure if people were worried about the contract talks, them drafting Dillon, or what, but based on last year there was no reason to believe he wouldn't be an RB1. Just bad judgment for anyone who passed on him beyond the mid 2nd round (raises hand). 

Edited by BGDDYKWL

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1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He went criminally late in drafts. I'm not sure if people were worried about the contract talks, them drafting Dillon, or what, but based on last year there was no reason to believe he wouldn't be an RB1. Just bad judgment for anyone who passed on him beyond the mid 2nd round (raises hand). 

 

Absolutely this. The first 11 picks in my league were RBs (ending in Drake, Mixon went #8) and then I got lucky in that the next 4 were WRs. Only RBs he went ahead of in the first three rounds were Ekeler, Conner, Carson and Sanders - and this was just before the season started. He was the #12 RB, and I'd be pretty confident that that was the case in most leagues.

You could say that this year was a little different from others because we didn't see any pre-season, but it still feels like people whiffed on him in general - same deal with Hopkins at WR.

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Posted (edited)
On 9/29/2020 at 2:43 PM, K197040 said:

Because he was inconsistent last year.   He had those 4 bad games in one year.  And it wasn't just low end RB2 bad games.  It was 4 games where he was an RB4 or worse.   Compare that rate to the other RB1s. 

I have no idea why you can't acknowledge that.

You don't seem to understand what consistency looks like in fantasy. By its very nature, fantasy performances are highly volatile, even with relatively consistent players. Having four bad games and bunch of great ones is a good season. The way this should be looked at isn't "Damn, he had 4 bad games!" but instead "Wow, he only had 4 bad games all season!"

Edited by EaglesRocker97
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1 hour ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

You don't seem to understand what consistency looks like in fantasy. By its very nature, fantasy performances are highly volatile, even with relatively consistent players. Having four bad games and bunch of great ones is a good season. The way this should be looked at isn't "Damn, he had 4 bad games!" but instead "Wow, he only had 4 bad games all season!"

You'd have to go back and start with the original conversation which may have been in the 2019 thread.   I think my original point was that I'd have rather have an RB that rarely busted even if they finished lower than Jones at the end of season.   Although I do acknowledge that you don't usually find those where Jones is usually drafted. 

Of the top 15 or so RBs from last year, Jones was outside the top 36 more than any of the others.   It's great that he can put up 50 and win a week.  But he also lost weeks by putting up single digits. 

I'm sure everyone wants me to shut up by now so we can all enjoy Jones this year.  

 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, K197040 said:

You'd have to go back and start with the original conversation which may have been in the 2019 thread.   I think my original point was that I'd have rather have an RB that rarely busted even if they finished lower than Jones at the end of season.   Although I do acknowledge that you don't usually find those where Jones is usually drafted. 

Of the top 15 or so RBs from last year, Jones was outside the top 36 more than any of the others.   It's great that he can put up 50 and win a week.  But he also lost weeks by putting up single digits. 

I'm sure everyone wants me to shut up by now so we can all enjoy Jones this year.  

 

giphy.gif

Edited by TheDude4bides
bolding for emphasis
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8 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

No Adams tonight. Our boy bout to go ballistic. 

I need this HARD! Tie game going against CEH 

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Falcons give up the 2nd most yards per game and 2nd most points per game.

With Adams out, Jones should be even more game script proof.

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111 total yards and a TD, not quite like week 2 but he has had 20, 22, 18, and 20 touches so far. Through four games he's on pace for ~1500 rushing yards and 16 TDs plus ~550 receiving and 8 through the air.

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Frustrating usage tonight, felt like he missed the entire second quarter. Curious to see his snap percentage per week, I know he missed a drive or two in the previous game but tonight almost felt like disciplinary punishment with how much time he missed

As a side note, almost every time he touches the ball, good things happen. He also looks really good lining out wide and running routes. He can do it all, so I'm surprised he's not in on some of these key drives like the last two to end the 2nd quarter. 

I did hear the broadcasters mention that LaFleur noted he wants Jones fresh for the 4th quarter. I am glad that they put Williams in at the very end to run out the clock and take the beating; no point in risking a Jones injury there.

Hopefully in more competitive games we see Jones with more appropriate usage.

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1 minute ago, cbsholy said:

Frustrating usage tonight, felt like he missed the entire second quarter. Curious to see his snap percentage per week, I know he missed a drive or two in the previous game but tonight almost felt like disciplinary punishment with how much time he missed

As a side note, almost every time he touches the ball, good things happen. He also looks really good lining out wide and running routes. He can do it all, so I'm surprised he's not in on some of these key drives like the last two to end the 2nd quarter. 

I did hear the broadcasters mention that LaFleur noted he wants Jones fresh for the 4th quarter. I am glad that they put Williams in at the very end to run out the clock and take the beating; no point in risking a Jones injury there.

Hopefully in more competitive games we see Jones with more appropriate usage.

Are you guys blind? He had 15 carries and 5 receptions. They are not trying to run him into the ground in week 4, they are a super bowl contender and he’s a large piece to that. 
 

This is not any different from last year, if you drafted him thinking he would get 25-30 carries then you weren’t paying attention. He is very productive when he’s on the field. 

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There was a tweet in the game thread saying that AJ got into it with the OC and got himself benched for the rest of the first half. Don’t know if that’s true or not. 

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2 minutes ago, dmody91 said:

Are you guys blind? He had 15 carries and 5 receptions. They are not trying to run him into the ground in week 4, they are a super bowl contender and he’s a large piece to that. 
 

This is not any different from last year, if you drafted him thinking he would get 25-30 carries then you weren’t paying attention. He is very productive when he’s on the field. 

Nobody's implying he should get 25-30 carries. He seemed to get 50 yards on the first drive of the game and then literally didn't get another snap until the third quarter. It was highly unusual, to the point where most Jones owners didn't even know if he was hurt or not. It wasn't a simple "why's he only have 15 carries" type of thing

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Yeah he got a lot of touches on the first drive (including the touchdown) and it felt pretty quiet after that. That said he had 40+ points on under half of the snaps in week 2 so it isn’t as concerning as it would be with someone who’s more volume-dependent

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58 minutes ago, dmody91 said:

Are you guys blind? He had 15 carries and 5 receptions. They are not trying to run him into the ground in week 4, they are a super bowl contender and he’s a large piece to that. 
 

This is not any different from last year, if you drafted him thinking he would get 25-30 carries then you weren’t paying attention. He is very productive when he’s on the field. 

it felt frustrating but you're right--20 touches is a good number for him. He just had a ton of yards on that first drive then basically disappeared for 2 quarters 

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80 touches, 500+ yards, 6 TDs in 4 games and a receiving corps demolished by injury. Not sure why there is any negativity whatsoever in this thread. He is a set it and forget it top 5 RB. Only injury will stop him.

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Continuing on a theme, here is how Jones has ranked on a weekly basis, since getting a larger role in 2018...

image.png.3901a1ba06ac4f1ca3a73bbd18af7efc.png

image.png.078fa937ee042b90f9e0ae2f0e1be92a.png

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7 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

The only week Aaron has disappointed me this season.

 

 

Idk, he hit his projected total in my league this week 🤷‍♀️

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