K197040

Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

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Good discussion on Jones on FF today.   Was 18th in terms of consistency (by their parameters) and busted 5 times.  I think they use 1/2 PPR.

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On 1/21/2020 at 3:23 PM, K197040 said:

Good discussion on Jones on FF today.   Was 18th in terms of consistency (by their parameters) and busted 5 times.  I think they use 1/2 PPR.

If this is not a typo or mistake by you, then FF Today has rankings that are idiotic. There is no way Jones was 18th in any parameter of consistency that makes the slightest bit of sense.

Per Fantasy Pros & standard scoring, Jones was 5th in consistency: https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/01/2019-fantasy-football-consistency-rankings/

There is literally no way that 1/2 PPR (or even full PPR) made Jones fall from #5 to #18, regardless of any common-sense parameter. 

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Due to size restrictions, I can't post the full list of weekly finishes by all the top 2019 RB's. But I took a look at how the top RB's fared week by week for their fantasy finish amongst RB's. Going by PPR and a 12-team league, here is how often RB's were either an RB1 (finished in the top 12) or an RB2 (finished in the top 24). Listing without all the individual numbers undersells things, as for example, Jones and Fournette both have 7 RB1 performances and 4 RB2 performances. So I'll list those two guys out to show what I mean:
image.png.5d80a49de634ade5b4716c4e99750382.png

image.png.1fef5a3157cbeaa13bc07a2934443d2c.png

Here's the full totals for RB1 or RB2 games:
image.png.b5965daa49ad27a3d28a78a15dba05b9.png

Edited by Corleone

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On 1/25/2020 at 7:35 AM, Corleone said:

If this is not a typo or mistake by you, then FF Today has rankings that are idiotic. There is no way Jones was 18th in any parameter of consistency that makes the slightest bit of sense.

Per Fantasy Pros & standard scoring, Jones was 5th in consistency: https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/01/2019-fantasy-football-consistency-rankings/

There is literally no way that 1/2 PPR (or even full PPR) made Jones fall from #5 to #18, regardless of any common-sense parameter. 

 

I don't think it's a mistake.  Wasn't FF Today.   It's Fantasy Footballers.   Here's the explanation of their ranking and the write up on Jones.

 

Quote

 

The Fantasy Footballers base all scores on 0.5 PPR scoring. They consider Great games to be those that average out to a weekly top-5 score, a Good game means they fell within the top-24 on average, and a Bust game means it would miss the top-50 on average. A Great game could win you a week while a Bust game could’ve lost you a week.

They use this data to develop a Consistency Score. Consistency means less risk. You want consistent players.

Great Games are more than 22 points (top 5 on average)
Good Games are more than 10 points (top 24 on average)
Bust Games are fewer than 7 points (outside top 50 on average)
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score

 

 

 
Quote

 

2. Aaron Jones (290.3 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #18

16 games — 236/1084/16 — 49/474/3 on 68 targets — 2 fumbles lost
Great 38% | Good 69% | Bust 31%
Defenses: -8.26 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +0.59 at Home

Jones’ fantasy season was mind-boggling as he set the Packers franchise record 23 TDs in 18 games (includes playoffs) but also killed fantasy owners on multiple occasions. He had the highest bust rate of any RB in the top-24 with five games of less than seven points. But when he was awesome, he essentially won you your week with the 5th highest percentage of ‘Great’ games. The increase in usage in the passing game is definitely encouraging compared to how he was used in previous years before Matt LaFleur came to town. The Ballers discussed what type of touchdown regression could be coming in 2020 and how that might affect him in drafts. 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, K197040 said:

He had the highest bust rate of any RB in the top-24 with five games of less than seven points

I’m at work so I can’t look this up right now, but there’s no way in the world that was any worse than Mixon, Drake, or Lindsay. And that’s just off the top of my head. 

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I’m at work so I can’t look this up right now, but there’s no way in the world that was any worse than Mixon, Drake, or Lindsay. And that’s just off the top of my head. 

According to FF parameters:

Mixon busted 25% of the time.

Jones busted 31% of the time.

Drake busted 13% of the time.

Lindsay busted 25% of the time.

 

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

According to FF parameters:

Mixon busted 25% of the time.

Jones busted 31% of the time.

Drake busted 13% of the time.

Lindsay busted 25% of the time.

 

By their parameters, Mixon just missed "busting" for his fifth week by .90 points.  He also had two 8.3 weeks.  Drake had one 7.1 week, and two 7.3 weeks.  He also had an 8.2 and an 8.8.  Lindsay only had three "bust" weeks, but he also had a 7.3, a 7.7, an 8.5 and two 8.6 weeks. 

 

In contrast, while Jones did have those five weeks under 7 points, his next worst week outside of those was 14.8.  

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10 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

By their parameters, Mixon just missed "busting" for his fifth week by .90 points.  He also had two 8.3 weeks.  Drake had one 7.1 week, and two 7.3 weeks.  He also had an 8.2 and an 8.8.  Lindsay only had three "bust" weeks, but he also had a 7.3, a 7.7, an 8.5 and two 8.6 weeks. 

 

In contrast, while Jones did have those five weeks under 7 points, his next worst week outside of those was 14.8.  

I'm just the messenger.  

And I don't think anyone would argue that Jones shouldn't be picked ahead of Lindsay and Drake.

Some have mentioned Jones as a 1st round guy.    Which I disagree with. 

Also it's pretty important to look at the split with games where Williams and/or Adams was healthy.

If you tell me Jones is getting 70% of the work, then I agree he's a first round pick.  But there's nothing to point to that being the case. 

 

Edited by K197040

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5 hours ago, K197040 said:

I don't think it's a mistake.  Wasn't FF Today.   It's Fantasy Footballers.   Here's the explanation of their ranking and the write up on Jones.

 

3 hours ago, K197040 said:

According to FF parameters:

Mixon busted 25% of the time.

Jones busted 31% of the time.

Drake busted 13% of the time.

Lindsay busted 25% of the time.

I mentioned FF Today because that's what you initially stated. But whatever the source, their methodology is whacked. 

Here are the actual weekly finishes amongst RB's in full PPR, for all four of these players:
image.thumb.png.f91d15aa0487f8fe8acfbb6bc2771f9f.png

The games in which Jones is a bust are all from the 30 column and on (meaning the RB was 30th or worse amongst all RB's in a given week).
Jones had 5 such games.
Mixon had 6 such games.
Lindsay had 6 such games.
Drake had 5 such games (plus he missed 2 games altogether). 

And that doesn't even take into account the highs of Jones being significantly higher than these RB's. 

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

 

I mentioned FF Today because that's what you initially stated. But whatever the source, their methodology is whacked. 

Here are the actual weekly finishes amongst RB's in full PPR, for all four of these players:
image.thumb.png.f91d15aa0487f8fe8acfbb6bc2771f9f.png

The games in which Jones is a bust are all from the 30 column and on (meaning the RB was 30th or worse amongst all RB's in a given week).
Jones had 5 such games.
Mixon had 6 such games.
Lindsay had 6 such games.
Drake had 5 such games (plus he missed 2 games altogether). 

And that doesn't even take into account the highs of Jones being significantly higher than these RB's. 

I see the confusion.  I said, “on FF today” meaning on Fantasy Footballers today (the day I posted it).

I’ll look at your graphic when I get back to a computer.  So it seems the difference in methodology is what the comparison is to.  Yours is relative to other RB that week while FF is based on a hard number.  Interesting to think about which makes more sense.  In a vacuum, seems like the former would be more significant but in the context of a full lineup, I’m not as sure.  Also probably need to take into account their draft position.

And again, we’re trying to think about this in terms of drafting them next year.  So I’ll reiterate that Jones best games were due to injuries.

Edited by K197040

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14 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 So I’ll reiterate that Jones best games were due to injuries

While it’s true his best game(against Dallas), Adams and Williams were both absent, he had 34 and 31 in weeks 14 and 16, and that was with both of them also playing. I understand the Williams narrative(I’ve been a Jones truther since he came into the league so I understand that frustration at times)but I think it’s a bit overblown. 

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13 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

While it’s true his best game(against Dallas), Adams and Williams were both absent, he had 34 and 31 in weeks 14 and 16, and that was with both of them also playing. I understand the Williams narrative(I’ve been a Jones truther since he came into the league so I understand that frustration at times)but I think it’s a bit overblown. 

We’ll have to agree to disagree.  I’ve been a Jones truther since his rookie year in terms of supporting his talent.  But the split with Williams and the lack of targets has made him TD dependent. I’d like nothing more than for LeFleur to give him more carries for the full year.  But I think I’ve come to the conclusion that LeFleur sees the same talent we all see and is happy keeping Jones fresh for when it matters.  The one thing I can see him changing is giving him more targets because that clearly works.

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27 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I see the confusion.  I said, “on FF today” meaning on Fantasy Footballers today (the day I posted it).

I’ll look at your graphic when I get back to a computer.  So it seems the difference in methodology is what the comparison is to.  Yours is relative to other RB that week while FF is based on a hard number.  Interesting to think about which makes more sense.  In a vacuum, seems like the former would be more significant but in the context of a full lineup, I’m not as sure.  Also probably need to take into account their draft position.

And again, we’re trying to think about this in terms of drafting them next year.  So I’ll reiterate that Jones best games were due to injuries.

 

10 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

While it’s true his best game(against Dallas), Adams and Williams were both absent, he had 34 and 31 in weeks 14 and 16, and that was with both of them also playing. I understand the Williams narrative(I’ve been a Jones truther since he came into the league so I understand that frustration at times)but I think it’s a bit overblown. 

These were the RB1 games from Jones, with the presence of Adams & Williams noted in each game:

--Week 2 vs MIN: Adams played, Williams played
--Week 5 vs DAL: Adams did not play, Williams did not play
--Week 7 vs OAK: Adams did not play, Williams played
--Week 8 vs KC: Adams did not play, Williams played
--Week 10 vs CAR: Adams played, Williams played
--Week 14 vs WAS: Adams played, Williams played
--Week 15 vs MIN: Adams played, Williams played

All in all, Jones proved capable of big performances in all scenarios.

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Week 8 2018 was when Jones began being featured more than he previously had been by the Packers (GB had their bye in Week 7).

From Week 8 2018 through the full 2019 season, here are the "RB1" running backs in full PPR, going by a 12-team standard...

image.png.0874be201a1bcffb190b2a86060f9693.png

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15 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

These were the RB1 games from Jones, with the presence of Adams & Williams noted in each game:

--Week 2 vs MIN: Adams played, Williams played
--Week 5 vs DAL: Adams did not play, Williams did not play
--Week 7 vs OAK: Adams did not play, Williams played
--Week 8 vs KC: Adams did not play, Williams played
--Week 10 vs CAR: Adams played, Williams played
--Week 14 vs WAS: Adams played, Williams played
--Week 15 vs MIN: Adams played, Williams played

All in all, Jones proved capable of big performances in all scenarios.

Hmmm...this doesn't really fit my narrative.

Maybe I'm placing too much significance on the untimely bust games late in the season which personally killed me.

I'll also concede that while he may have been TD dependent, he has a much higher chance at getting a TD that maybe any other RB.

That being said, I'm still having a hard time thinking he's a first round pick.

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He plays the Vikings and Bears twice, 4 games against top 5 run defenses in 2020. 

He also doesn't get enough carries/catches to warrant a top 15 pick, Williams is young and very talented himself and takes entire series and lots of touches.

TD dependent and I could see Rodgers taking the reins a little more near the endzone. 

No thanks.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

 

He plays the Vikings and Bears twice, 4 games against top 5 run defenses in 2020. 

 

23 for 116 and a td in Week 2 against the Vikings, and he added 4 catches for 34 yards. 23 for 154 and 2 tds in Week 16 against them. 13 for 51 and 2 tds in Week 15 against the Bears. 

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43 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

He plays the Vikings and Bears twice, 4 games against top 5 run defenses in 2020. 

He also doesn't get enough carries/catches to warrant a top 15 pick, Williams is young and very talented himself and takes entire series and lots of touches.

TD dependent and I could see Rodgers taking the reins a little more near the endzone. 

No thanks.

 

 

According to DVOA, the Bears were the 13th ranked rush defense, and the Vikings were 9. Both are very good, but that's no reason to fade Jones. Jones had 1500 all-purpose yards, and 50 receptions. Hard to say he's TD dependent. You could take away half his TDs from this season, and he'd still have been a top ten RB. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

According to DVOA, the Bears were the 13th ranked rush defense, and the Vikings were 9. Both are very good, but that's no reason to fade Jones. Jones had 1500 all-purpose yards, and 50 receptions. Hard to say he's TD dependent. You could take away half his TDs from this season, and he'd still have been a top ten RB. 

I think it's pretty easy to call him TD dependent.  He had 10 games with 100 all purpose yards or less. 

In PPR :

Game 1 / Chicago : 4.9 fantasy points on 39 total yards

Game 3 / Denver : 15.3 fantasy points on 23 total yards (2 TDs)

Game 4 / Philly : 17.8 fantasy points on 58 total yards (1 TD)

Game 6 / Detroit : 8 fantasy points on 60 total yards

Game 7 / Oakland : 18.3 fantasy points on 83 total yards (2 TD)

Game 9 / Chargers : 3.9 fantasy points on 29 total yards

Game 10 / Carolina : 27.3 fantasy points on 93 total yards (3 TD)

Game 12 / SF : 3.8 fantasy points on 38 total yards

Game 13 / NYG : 7.1 fantasy points on 31 total yards

Game 15 / Chicago : 17.1 fantasy points on 51 total yards (2 TD)

 

Take away the TDs and in only one of those games does he even get double digits.   And the rest are busts.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, K197040 said:

Hmmm...this doesn't really fit my narrative.

Maybe I'm placing too much significance on the untimely bust games late in the season which personally killed me.

I'll also concede that while he may have been TD dependent, he has a much higher chance at getting a TD that maybe any other RB.

That being said, I'm still having a hard time thinking he's a first round pick.

Respect for you acknowledging the point re: Adams and Williams.

By the “untimely bust games late in the season”, you can only be referring to games that occurred before the season’s last month. Jones had bust games in Week 12 & Week 13. He was terrific for the entire fantasy playoffs (including Week 17, for the few that play that week out).

If bust games by Jones in Week 12/13 killed your season, in spite of several amazing performances by Jones the majority of the season up to that point, then Jones was not your team’s problem.

Look at it this way, prior to the Week 12/13 busts, Jones played in 10 games (GB’s bye was Week 11). The other busts from Jones were Weeks 1, 6, 9. So up until Week 12, you got an excellent or very good fantasy game 70% of the time from Jones. He was an RB1 or RB2 in those games. And often the best or second-best RB. He helped fantasy teams immensely. 

Then after those two busts, he was awesome for the fantasy playoffs as mentioned. If the two final bust games outweigh all the positives Jones brought to the table, that’s your call. But overall, Jones was on more championship rosters than all but three other RB’s. And it’s not like he was a random free agent pickup to get to that status.

And as mentioned in a prior recent post, Jones has been the 3rd-best RB across the past season and a half. For me, he is absolutely worthy of a Round 1 draft pick.

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3 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

He plays the Vikings and Bears twice, 4 games against top 5 run defenses in 2020. 

He also doesn't get enough carries/catches to warrant a top 15 pick, Williams is young and very talented himself and takes entire series and lots of touches.

TD dependent and I could see Rodgers taking the reins a little more near the endzone. 

No thanks.

As mentioned by @JoeJoe88, Jones just had big success against the Vikings and Bears this past season. 3 of those 4 games were excellent fantasy-wise.

Theres a long way to go before the 2020 season begins. Free agency and the draft will alter many a team. But if you want to go by 2019 defensive rankings, this is what Jones will be facing in 2020. These are the ranks by PPR fantasy points allowed in 2019, for GB’s 2020 opponents...

—Upper half of league: 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14, 14 (the double 14 is for the Vikings, who Jones torched in 2019 as mentioned...and who would’ve ranked within the top 10 if Jones hadn’t wrecked them twice).

—Bottom half of the league: 17, 17, 20, 27, 28, 28, 31, 32 (the double 17 is for the Bears; the double 28 is for the Lions). 

8 games against the upper half. 8 games against the bottom half (including 5 games against the six worst RB defenses...and the two absolute worst to boot).

2020 schedule is no reason to downgrade Jones at this stage whatsoever.

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

Respect for you acknowledging the point re: Adams and Williams.

By the “untimely bust games late in the season”, you can only be referring to games that occurred before the season’s last month. Jones had bust games in Week 12 & Week 13. He was terrific for the entire fantasy playoffs (including Week 17, for the few that play that week out).

If bust games by Jones in Week 12/13 killed your season, in spite of several amazing performances by Jones the majority of the season up to that point, then Jones was not your team’s problem.

Look at it this way, prior to the Week 12/13 busts, Jones played in 10 games (GB’s bye was Week 11). The other busts from Jones were Weeks 1, 6, 9. So up until Week 12, you got an excellent or very good fantasy game 70% of the time from Jones. He was an RB1 or RB2 in those games. And often the best or second-best RB. He helped fantasy teams immensely. 

Then after those two busts, he was awesome for the fantasy playoffs as mentioned. If the two final bust games outweigh all the positives Jones brought to the table, that’s your call. But overall, Jones was on more championship rosters than all but three other RB’s. And it’s not like he was a random free agent pickup to get to that status.

And as mentioned in a prior recent post, Jones has been the 3rd-best RB across the past season and a half. For me, he is absolutely worthy of a Round 1 draft pick.

I'd like whoever I draft in the first round to be consistent.    Jones is not that.  And yes, for me personally, his busts in 12/13 cost me making the playoffs.   Just needed 1 win out of the two.  10 points from Jones in either of them would have done that.    And sure, I could point to other players who cost me a game earlier in the season but 5 bust games out of a first round pick is too much imo.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

I'd like whoever I draft in the first round to be consistent.    Jones is not that.  And yes, for me personally, his busts in 12/13 cost me making the playoffs.   Just needed 1 win out of the two.  10 points from Jones in either of them would have done that.    And sure, I could point to other players who cost me a game earlier in the season but 5 bust games out of a first round pick is too much imo.  

To each their own here :) 

Though one quick point on the bust games. In one of the 5 busts for Jones (Week 6), he did gain enough yardage to have a "good" game (per the standards you mentioned Fantasy Footballers was using). But he had one lost fumble that dropped him from "good" to "bust". Now a fumble is a fumble and the points were what they were. But RB fumbles are quite fluky and a different bounce of the ball changes the narrative for that one game.

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4 hours ago, K197040 said:

I think it's pretty easy to call him TD dependent.  He had 10 games with 100 all purpose yards or less. 

In PPR :

Game 1 / Chicago : 4.9 fantasy points on 39 total yards

Game 3 / Denver : 15.3 fantasy points on 23 total yards (2 TDs)

Game 4 / Philly : 17.8 fantasy points on 58 total yards (1 TD)

Game 6 / Detroit : 8 fantasy points on 60 total yards

Game 7 / Oakland : 18.3 fantasy points on 83 total yards (2 TD)

Game 9 / Chargers : 3.9 fantasy points on 29 total yards

Game 10 / Carolina : 27.3 fantasy points on 93 total yards (3 TD)

Game 12 / SF : 3.8 fantasy points on 38 total yards

Game 13 / NYG : 7.1 fantasy points on 31 total yards

Game 15 / Chicago : 17.1 fantasy points on 51 total yards (2 TD)

 

Take away the TDs and in only one of those games does he even get double digits.   And the rest are busts.

With 2019 all said and done, Jones finished 7th amongst RB's in yards from scrimmage. So he produced quite a bit even without TD's.

Here were the RB's with the most 100-yard scrimmage games from 2019:
image.png.f7178b3434e8db6212e105ff09336489.png

And here were the only RB's who had at least 6 games with 100 yards rushing or receiving. This is especially valuable for the many leagues that provide a bonus for a 100-yard rushing or 100-yard receiving game. 

image.png.e88a8dc340387a2ba548b5e013012603.png

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