K197040

Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

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Here's a PFF stat I came upon for Jones. This was through Week 7. No fantasy points come directly from great pass-blocking...but the better pass-blocking there is, the more the player should be on the field. He did have some pressures allowed late in the season, but this is still quite an interesting blocking run for Jones.

 

Edited by Corleone
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Jones can pass block now? Sign me up.

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Thanks, @Corleone!  This has been an excellent read and I’m grateful for your incisive and extensive analysis!

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31 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Thanks, @Corleone!  This has been an excellent read and I’m grateful for your incisive and extensive analysis!

Thank you, I appreciate that! :) 

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Not a first rounder because

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. Zeke

4. Cook

5. Michael Thomas

6. Kamara

7. Chubb without hunt

8. Hopkins

9. Henry

10. Devante Adams

11. Kelce

12. Hill

13. Julio 

For me these guys are safe sure fire first rounders who have way more value than aaron jones. 

One could argue mixon over aaron jones, but its close and I'll side with jones slightly at this point, better team better def. 

Edited by nmartinez12443

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14 hours ago, Corleone said:

With 2019 all said and done, Jones finished 7th amongst RB's in yards from scrimmage. So he produced quite a bit even without TD's.

Here were the RB's with the most 100-yard scrimmage games from 2019:
image.png.f7178b3434e8db6212e105ff09336489.png

 

As it stands now, I would take everyone on that list ahead of Jones except for Carson and probably Fournette.    And a handful of WR.

The only thing that would change my mind is some clear indication that Jones was going to be "the guy" in Green Bay.

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12 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Not a first rounder because

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. Zeke

4. Cook

5. Michael Thomas

6. Kamara

7. Chubb without hunt

8. Hopkins

9. Henry

10. Devante Adams

11. Kelce

12. Hill

13. Julio 

For me these guys are safe sure fire first rounders who have way more value than aaron jones. 

One could argue mixon over aaron jones, but its close and I'll side with jones slightly at this point, better team better def. 

2020 defensive schedule isn't the issue any longer?

You mentioned 5 WR's and a TE in your above list...Thomas, Hopkins, Adams, Kelce, Tyreek and Julio.

Now Thomas and Kelce are the best at their positions. I definitely would take Thomas over Jones, and while Kelce I'm not certain about over Jones, I do agree with you that Kelce should be a 1st round pick.

Let's compare Jones to the other four WR's you mentioned, by looking at their 2019 weekly fantasy ranks (PPR) amongst their position...
Green = RB1 or WR1
Yellow = RB2 or WR2
Orange = RB3 or WR3 (Flex)
Red = outside of the top 36 at RB or WR,
Blue = DNP

image.png.2c0417c303286dfa313ad993462e7c6b.png

--BOOM:
Jones was an RB1 or RB2 in 11 of 16 games (68.8% of games played). He also had as many Top 3 finishes (5) as all those WR's combined.
Hopkins was a WR1 or WR2 in 10 of 15 games (66.7% of games played).
Julio was a WR1 or WR2 in 8 of 15 games (53.3% of games played).
Adams was a WR1 or WR2 in 8 of 12 games (66.7% of games played).
Tyreek was a WR or WR2 in 6 of 12 games (50.0% of games played).

--BUST:
Jones was not even a RB3 in 4 of 16 games (25.0% of games played).
Hopkins was not even a WR3 in 4 of 15 games (26.7% of games played).
Julio was not even a WR3 in 3 of 15 games (20.0% of games played).
Adams was not even a WR3 in 3 of 12 games (25.0% of games played).
Tyreek was not even a WR3 in 4 of 12 games (33.3% of games played).

As always, everyone can do with this info what they wish, whether that's value it, keep it in mind, or ignore it. 

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20 hours ago, K197040 said:

I think it's pretty easy to call him TD dependent.  He had 10 games with 100 all purpose yards or less. 

In PPR :

Game 1 / Chicago : 4.9 fantasy points on 39 total yards

Game 3 / Denver : 15.3 fantasy points on 23 total yards (2 TDs)

Game 4 / Philly : 17.8 fantasy points on 58 total yards (1 TD)

Game 6 / Detroit : 8 fantasy points on 60 total yards

Game 7 / Oakland : 18.3 fantasy points on 83 total yards (2 TD)

Game 9 / Chargers : 3.9 fantasy points on 29 total yards

Game 10 / Carolina : 27.3 fantasy points on 93 total yards (3 TD)

Game 12 / SF : 3.8 fantasy points on 38 total yards

Game 13 / NYG : 7.1 fantasy points on 31 total yards

Game 15 / Chicago : 17.1 fantasy points on 51 total yards (2 TD)

 

Take away the TDs and in only one of those games does he even get double digits.   And the rest are busts.

 

So, in his productive games, he always got in the end zone.... This is supposed to be a knock?

He had 5 games under 15 fantasy points all season. Nick Chubb had 10! Fournette had 7. Carson had 7. Henry had 6. Kamara had 6. Barkley had 4 in limited action... Etc.

There's no reason to fade Jones based on his production. After, CMC, Barkley, Cook, and Zeke, I'm not sure there's any RB I'd rather have.  

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9 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

So, in his productive games, he always got in the end zone.... This is supposed to be a knock?

He had 5 games under 15 fantasy points all season. Nick Chubb had 10! Fournette had 7. Carson had 7. Henry had 6. Kamara had 6. Barkley had 4 in limited action... Etc.

There's no reason to fade Jones based on his production. After, CMC, Barkley, Cook, and Zeke, I'm not sure there's any RB I'd rather have.  

It's not a knock.  Someone mentioned that he wasn't TD dependent.  I was making the point that he was.  But he's also one of the most likely to score a TD. 

I'm not fading him.  I'm just pointing out why I don't like him in the first round.  I'm sure anyone on either side can find stats that put him above other RBs or below.  If you move your bar to games below 10 points, Jones had 5, Chubb had 3, Fournette had 1, Carson had 4, Henry had 3, Kamara had 2, Barkley had 4.  

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

2020 defensive schedule isn't the issue any longer?

You mentioned 5 WR's and a TE in your above list...Thomas, Hopkins, Adams, Kelce, Tyreek and Julio.

Now Thomas and Kelce are the best at their positions. I definitely would take Thomas over Jones, and while Kelce I'm not certain about over Jones, I do agree with you that Kelce should be a 1st round pick.

Let's compare Jones to the other four WR's you mentioned, by looking at their 2019 weekly fantasy ranks (PPR) amongst their position...
Green = RB1 or WR1
Yellow = RB2 or WR2
Orange = RB3 or WR3 (Flex)
Red = outside of the top 36 at RB or WR,
Blue = DNP

image.png.2c0417c303286dfa313ad993462e7c6b.png

--BOOM:
Jones was an RB1 or RB2 in 11 of 16 games (68.8% of games played). He also had as many Top 3 finishes (5) as all those WR's combined.
Hopkins was a WR1 or WR2 in 10 of 15 games (66.7% of games played).
Julio was a WR1 or WR2 in 8 of 15 games (53.3% of games played).
Adams was a WR1 or WR2 in 8 of 12 games (66.7% of games played).
Tyreek was a WR or WR2 in 6 of 12 games (50.0% of games played).

--BUST:
Jones was not even a RB3 in 4 of 16 games (25.0% of games played).
Hopkins was not even a WR3 in 4 of 15 games (26.7% of games played).
Julio was not even a WR3 in 3 of 15 games (20.0% of games played).
Adams was not even a WR3 in 3 of 12 games (25.0% of games played).
Tyreek was not even a WR3 in 4 of 12 games (33.3% of games played).

As always, everyone can do with this info what they wish, whether that's value it, keep it in mind, or ignore it. 

No I still wouldn't want jones because he will play minn and chicago 4 times out of 16 games. Yes he had success, I'll concede that but playing 2 top 10 run defenses is an issue. No one is picking jones over the 13 players I listed, but I will concede that he will go 15-24, which I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. I would also take kittle over jones. 

You also ignored the fact that 

He had 10 games with 100 all purpose yards or less. 

In PPR :

Game 1 / Chicago : 4.9 fantasy points on 39 total yards

Game 3 / Denver : 15.3 fantasy points on 23 total yards (2 TDs)

Game 4 / Philly : 17.8 fantasy points on 58 total yards (1 TD)

Game 6 / Detroit : 8 fantasy points on 60 total yards

Game 7 / Oakland : 18.3 fantasy points on 83 total yards (2 TD)

Game 9 / Chargers : 3.9 fantasy points on 29 total yards

Game 10 / Carolina : 27.3 fantasy points on 93 total yards (3 TD)

Game 12 / SF : 3.8 fantasy points on 38 total yards

Game 13 / NYG : 7.1 fantasy points on 31 total yards

Game 15 / Chicago : 17.1 fantasy points on 51 total yards (2 TD)

Edited by nmartinez12443

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15 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

No I still wouldn't want jones because he will play minn and chicago 4 times out of 16 games. Yes he had success, I'll concede that but playing 2 top 10 run defenses is an issue. No one is picking jones over the 13 players I listed, but I will concede that he will go 15-24, which I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. I would also take kittle over jones. 

I already addressed the schedule aspect...when I quoted you. You ignored that post.
https://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/798980-aaron-jones-2020-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=8998266

"No one" is picking Jones over the 13 players you listed? Well at least one person is.

You don't think Jones is worthy of a Top 24 pick. Okay. Everyone is free to do what they want...
 

15 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

You also ignored the fact that 

He had 10 games with 100 all purpose yards or less. 

In PPR :

Game 1 / Chicago : 4.9 fantasy points on 39 total yards

Game 3 / Denver : 15.3 fantasy points on 23 total yards (2 TDs)

Game 4 / Philly : 17.8 fantasy points on 58 total yards (1 TD)

Game 6 / Detroit : 8 fantasy points on 60 total yards

Game 7 / Oakland : 18.3 fantasy points on 83 total yards (2 TD)

Game 9 / Chargers : 3.9 fantasy points on 29 total yards

Game 10 / Carolina : 27.3 fantasy points on 93 total yards (3 TD)

Game 12 / SF : 3.8 fantasy points on 38 total yards

Game 13 / NYG : 7.1 fantasy points on 31 total yards

Game 15 / Chicago : 17.1 fantasy points on 51 total yards (2 TD)

I didn't ignore that all. I responded to those points in a post yesterday, when I quoted the person who actually made the comments that you just copied and pasted from someone else.

https://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/798980-aaron-jones-2020-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=8998445

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6 hours ago, K197040 said:

It's not a knock.  Someone mentioned that he wasn't TD dependent.  I was making the point that he was.  But he's also one of the most likely to score a TD. 

I'm not fading him.  I'm just pointing out why I don't like him in the first round.  I'm sure anyone on either side can find stats that put him above other RBs or below.  If you move your bar to games below 10 points, Jones had 5, Chubb had 3, Fournette had 1, Carson had 4, Henry had 3, Kamara had 2, Barkley had 4.  

I guess I just don't know what TD dependent means to you. If Jones is TD dependent, than so is Dalvin Cook. Their numbers are damn near identical. You're basically saying every RB is TD dependent other than CMC. 

TD dependent RBs are ones who don't catch passes, don't break long runs, and don't get a lot of volume. Guys like Jordan Howard, for example. Jones is a threat to break a long run any time he touches the ball and he's heavily involved in the passing game. There's no rational argument to call him TD dependent. 

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15 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I guess I just don't know what TD dependent means to you. If Jones is TD dependent, than so is Dalvin Cook. Their numbers are damn near identical. You're basically saying every RB is TD dependent other than CMC. 

TD dependent RBs are ones who don't catch passes, don't break long runs, and don't get a lot of volume. Guys like Jordan Howard, for example. Jones is a threat to break a long run any time he touches the ball and he's heavily involved in the passing game. There's no rational argument to call him TD dependent. 

TD dependent to me means that if they don't get enough yards and receptions, they bust. 

Take away all of Cook's TDs and he still had 10 weeks of double digit PPR points.  7 of them over 15 points, 

He's consistently part of the passing game.   Jones is not.  In 5 games, he got 1 target or less.  Cook had targets every game.  The fewest being 2.

Edited by K197040

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55 minutes ago, K197040 said:

TD dependent to me means that if they don't get enough yards and receptions, they bust. 

Take away all of Cook's TDs and he still had 10 weeks of double digit PPR points.  7 of them over 15 points, 

He's consistently part of the passing game.   Jones is not.  In 5 games, he got 1 target or less.  Cook had targets every game.  The fewest being 2.

Jones had 9 weeks of double digit fantasy production without any TDs. 5 over 15 points. Pretty close.

Cook had more consistent work as a receiver, and that's why I'd take Cook ahead of Jones, but it's close. Again, after CMC, Barkley, Elliott, Cook, and maybe Kamara if you still believe, who are you taking ahead of Jones?

 

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42 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Jones had 9 weeks of double digit fantasy production without any TDs. 5 over 15 points. Pretty close.

Cook had more consistent work as a receiver, and that's why I'd take Cook ahead of Jones, but it's close. Again, after CMC, Barkley, Elliott, Cook, and maybe Kamara if you still believe, who are you taking ahead of Jones?

 

I'll preface this with saying, all this could change if LeFleur indicates that he's going to use Jones differently. 

RB:

For sure : CMC, Elliott, Cook, Barkley,

Probably : Chubb, Henry,  Jacobs

For me, it gets tough between Jones, Mixon, and Sanders.  Like Jones, Sanders will depend on what happens leading into the season. 

WR:

For sure : Thomas, Hopkins, Adams

Probably : Jones, Hill

TE:

Probably Kelce

 

 

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13 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I'll preface this with saying, all this could change if LeFleur indicates that he's going to use Jones differently. 

RB:

For sure : CMC, Elliott, Cook, Barkley,

Probably : Chubb, Henry,  Jacobs

For me, it gets tough between Jones, Mixon, and Sanders.  Like Jones, Sanders will depend on what happens leading into the season. 

WR:

For sure : Thomas, Hopkins, Adams

Probably : Jones, Hill

TE:

Probably Kelce

 

 

Makes sense. So, you're saying top 10 RB, maybe top 5. Borderline first round pick. I agree. I'm definitely taking Jones over Chubb, Henry, and Jacobs in full PPR though. Other than that, no real disagreement. 

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Makes sense. So, you're saying top 10 RB, maybe top 5. Borderline first round pick. I agree. I'm definitely taking Jones over Chubb, Henry, and Jacobs in full PPR though. Other than that, no real disagreement. 

I forgot Kamara.  But for me, he's in the group with Jones, Mixon and Sanders.  

But I think we're close.  Personally,  I would just be very uncomfortable taking Jones in the 1st.   I do have him as an 11th round keeper in one league so I honestly hope LeFleur lets him loose next season. 

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3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I forgot Kamara.  But for me, he's in the group with Jones, Mixon and Sanders.  

But I think we're close.  Personally,  I would just be very uncomfortable taking Jones in the 1st.   I do have him as an 11th round keeper in one league so I honestly hope LeFleur lets him loose next season. 

Jamaal Williams isn't going away. But 250 carries and 75 targets is likely next year. That's more than plenty of work. 

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10 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Jamaal Williams isn't going away. But 250 carries and 75 targets is likely next year. That's more than plenty of work. 

I don't know how you can say that with confidence.  You acknowledge Williams is still in the mix and Jones had 236 carries with Williams missing games.

Same with the targets.  He had 68 with both Williams and Adams missing games.  

I also expect the Packers to get Rodgers better receiving weapons whether adding another WR or pass catching TE.

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

I don't know how you can say that with confidence.  You acknowledge Williams is still in the mix and Jones had 236 carries with Williams missing games.

Same with the targets.  He had 68 with both Williams and Adams missing games.  

I also expect the Packers to get Rodgers better receiving weapons whether adding another WR or pass catching TE.

Because Jones was basically getting 20 carries a game down the stretch, even with everyone healthy. I think it's become clear that Jones needs more work, but that doesn't mean that he's going to be a Zeke like workhorse. Williams will still mix in. 

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33 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Because Jones was basically getting 20 carries a game down the stretch, even with everyone healthy. I think it's become clear that Jones needs more work, but that doesn't mean that he's going to be a Zeke like workhorse. Williams will still mix in. 

Because I believe that's what LeFleur intended by splitting carries earlier in the season.   They went 13-3 and had a fresh Jones at the end of the season.  I don't know why he would change that.  

I guess there's 2 possibilities for next year based on what we've seen:

1) LeFleur wants a fresh Jones for the end of the season and will continue to split 50/50 with Williams

2) LeFleur realizes that Jones is wayyyyy better and gives him a bigger split from day 1

What I hope happens is #2 and/or he makes sure to get Jones consistently involved in the passing game.

But that's just hope.

And again, adding any decent receiving options (particularly a good slot WR) would probably cut down on Jones targets.

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53 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Because I believe that's what LeFleur intended by splitting carries earlier in the season.   They went 13-3 and had a fresh Jones at the end of the season.  I don't know why he would change that.  

I guess there's 2 possibilities for next year based on what we've seen:

1) LeFleur wants a fresh Jones for the end of the season and will continue to split 50/50 with Williams

2) LeFleur realizes that Jones is wayyyyy better and gives him a bigger split from day 1

What I hope happens is #2 and/or he makes sure to get Jones consistently involved in the passing game.

But that's just hope.

And again, adding any decent receiving options (particularly a good slot WR) would probably cut down on Jones targets.

Doesn't have to be all one or the other. They could give him a bigger split without overworking him. Williams got too much run at times this year, but it still makes sense not to overwork Jones. 

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As we know, fantasy football is a weekly game. You need more points than your opponent each week, in order to get a win. I took a look at how Jones fared against all of the "RB1" running backs...the top 12 RB's in PPR this season.

I had run these numbers before Week 17 and since Week 17 is played by so few people anyways, you get Weeks 1--16 and that's it :) 

For example, let's take Jones vs. Derrick Henry. Here is how they ranked on a weekly basis, amongst all RB's that week:image.png.6b96e561b7358de7e7c5a9c8dfccf8db.png

As we can see, Jones individually beat Henry in 10 weeks. Henry beat Jones in 5 weeks. And they both happened to have their bye in Week 11, so that week was a push (tie). That means Jones went 10-5-1 against Henry in 2019. And that means your fantasy team got more points in those individual weeks, by literally having Jones in the lineup instead of Henry.

How did Jones do against all of the top 12 RB's? Here's how. Green means Jones had a "better record". Red means Jones had a "worse record". And gray means there was a tie. 

image.png.85418ca3a66390d8c85128979f78e99f.png

Did Jones have some fantasy duds in 2019? Yes. But I think some people overrate his inconsistency and underrate how impressive he was. Is this H2H Win/Loss record a perfect fantasy measure? No. But it does tell you whether if you had Jones on your team instead of one of these other top fantasy RB's, what the weekly difference would have been. Just as some people claim Jones himself "lost" them their weekly matchups with his duds, by the same measure he "won" some people weekly matchups with his booms - and by being in the lineup instead of other top RB's.

Edited by Corleone
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I dont care he doesnt get enough carries period, I would hate having to not have a top 8 pick this year and have to rely on guys like  Aaron "14 carries per game jones" (ranked 18th and thats without adams and williams in a couple games). 

This is a passing team and he doesnt get the volume to be ranked as a top 10 rb. Williams will still be there splitting snaps and carries.

 

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12 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I dont care he doesnt get enough carries period, I would hate having to not have a top 8 pick this year and have to rely on guys like  Aaron "14 carries per game jones" (ranked 18th and thats without adams and williams in a couple games). 

This is a passing team and he doesnt get the volume to be ranked as a top 10 rb. Williams will still be there splitting snaps and carries.

Since you want to talk rankings, I'll fact-check you on your comment that "this is a passing team".

GB was 16th of 32 NFL teams in pass attempts.
GB was 13th of 32 NFL teams in rush attempts.

As far as volume, I literally just posted factual evidence that Jones scored more points, in individual weeks, than players with more volume.
Maybe Jones will continue to get the same volume in 2020. And maybe he'll get more. 

Edited by Corleone

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