K197040

Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

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34 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Since you want to talk rankings, I'll fact-check you on your comment that "this is a passing team".

GB was 16th of 32 NFL teams in pass attempts.
GB was 13th of 32 NFL teams in rush attempts.

As far as volume, I literally just posted factual evidence that Jones scored more points, in individual weeks, than players with more volume.
Maybe Jones will continue to get the same volume in 2020. And maybe he'll get more. 

Actually green bay was 16th in rushing attempts per game at 25.4 per game and 17th in passing attempts. So middle of the road, but were 2nd last year and its pretty much a guarantee that they will get some help WR wise and Devante is now healthy which could cause GB to revert back to passing. 

 Everyone knows that volume is king when it comes to running backs. Williams will continue to take entire series, snaps, touches, and catches from jones, its been like that for 2 years. Williams is a talented back and even had some games where he started over jones. Top 12 pick no chance, top 20 I'll give you that, but I can't have a guy splitting carries anchoring my team. 

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6 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Actually green bay was 16th in rushing attempts per game at 25.4 per game and 17th in passing attempts. So middle of the road, but were 2nd last year and its pretty much a guarantee that they will get some help WR wise and Devante is now healthy which could cause GB to revert back to passing. 

 Everyone knows that volume is king when it comes to running backs. Williams will continue to take entire series, snaps, touches, and catches from jones, its been like that for 2 years. Williams is a talented back and even had some games where he started over jones. Top 12 pick no chance, top 20 I'll give you that, but I can't have a guy splitting carries anchoring my team. 

Actually GB was 13th in rushing attempts and 16th in passing attempts...as I stated the first time.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/

How many fantasy points do you get for series and snaps? In my league, the answer is 0 (but everyone plays in different formats).

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Some people believe that their "RB1" has to be a "workhorse RB". But the trend of the workhorse RB as it used to be thought of, is getting close to extinct. I've looked up RB trends for Top 12 RB's (in PPR format) this century, in terms of their carries, catches, overall touches, and FP totals. I don't have room here to post all the data, but here is a look at the amount of carries across each 5-year span this century. For "RB1", there are 12 RB's each year, so there are 60 RB's in a 5-year span...

image.png.5ebca1e5eeb2151b7d9ff65637543b97.png

What's the point? The point is that the top 12 RB's increasingly are RB's who don't have "workhorse" carry totals the way they did in the past.

As we can see, literally half - 30 of 60 - of the "RB1" group from the last 5 years, are guys with less than 250 carries (Jones had 236 in 2019).

The game is changing. People can stick to an old mindset and overlook quality RB's because of carries and snap counts. Or people can adapt and evolve towards the changing nature of RB. This doesn't mean RB's with high carry totals should be overlooked. Obviously not. A RB with high carry totals that is highly productive in all aspects of the game, that's the best of all worlds. But alternatively, RB's with high carry totals that aren't highly productive in all aspects, shouldn't automatically be picked just because of their carry totals (and associated snap counts).

Edited by Corleone
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8 hours ago, Corleone said:

Some people believe that their "RB1" has to be a "workhorse RB". But the trend of the workhorse RB as it used to be thought of, is getting close to extinct. I've looked up RB trends for Top 12 RB's (in PPR format) this century, in terms of their carries, catches, overall touches, and FP totals. I don't have room here to post all the data, but here is a look at the amount of carries across each 5-year span this century. For "RB1", there are 12 RB's each year, so there are 60 RB's in a 5-year span...

image.png.5ebca1e5eeb2151b7d9ff65637543b97.png

What's the point? The point is that the top 12 RB's increasingly are RB's who don't have "workhorse" carry totals the way they did in the past.

As we can see, literally half - 30 of 60 - of the "RB1" group from the last 5 years, are guys with less than 250 carries (Jones had 236 in 2019).

The game is changing. People can stick to an old mindset and overlook quality RB's because of carries and snap counts. Or people can adapt and evolve towards the changing nature of RB. This doesn't mean RB's with high carry totals should be overlooked. Obviously not. A RB with high carry totals that is highly productive in all aspects of the game, that's the best of all worlds. But alternatively, RB's with high carry totals that aren't highly productive in all aspects, shouldn't automatically be picked just because of their carry totals (and associated snap counts).

Great post. Also, the entire idea of the workhorse RB is so arbitrary. Jones is a committee back and Dalvin Cook is a workhorse back...  Why? Cook had one more carry per game. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Great post. Also, the entire idea of the workhorse RB is so arbitrary. Jones is a committee back and Dalvin Cook is a workhorse back...  Why? Cook had one more carry per game. 

Thanks, much appreciated! And I agree with your comment. In fairness, Cook was slightly higher because of his two missed games. But even so, he only had 3.11 carries more per game played, along with .73 catches per game played. And as you mention, nobody questions Cook in regards to his workload.

And on top of that, how did Cook fare in 2018? He didn't have a single 20-carry game (in 11 games played). And he averaged 12.1 carries per game. Then look at what happened in 2019...just because he had 12 carries a game the prior year, the coaching staff actually increased his role. Coming into the season healthy helped of course, but the point is, coaches aren't tied to keeping a player to the exact same carry totals they had the year before.

Edited by Corleone
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On 2/8/2020 at 1:42 PM, Corleone said:

As we know, fantasy football is a weekly game. You need more points than your opponent each week, in order to get a win. I took a look at how Jones fared against all of the "RB1" running backs...the top 12 RB's in PPR this season.

I had run these numbers before Week 17 and since Week 17 is played by so few people anyways, you get Weeks 1--16 and that's it :) 

For example, let's take Jones vs. Derrick Henry. Here is how they ranked on a weekly basis, amongst all RB's that week:image.png.6b96e561b7358de7e7c5a9c8dfccf8db.png

As we can see, Jones individually beat Henry in 10 weeks. Henry beat Jones in 5 weeks. And they both happened to have their bye in Week 11, so that week was a push (tie). That means Jones went 10-5-1 against Henry in 2019. And that means your fantasy team got more points in those individual weeks, by literally having Jones in the lineup instead of Henry.

How did Jones do against all of the top 12 RB's? Here's how. Green means Jones had a "better record". Red means Jones had a "worse record". And gray means there was a tie. 

image.png.85418ca3a66390d8c85128979f78e99f.png

Did Jones have some fantasy duds in 2019? Yes. But I think some people overrate his inconsistency and underrate how impressive he was. Is this H2H Win/Loss record a perfect fantasy measure? No. But it does tell you whether if you had Jones on your team instead of one of these other top fantasy RB's, what the weekly difference would have been. Just as some people claim Jones himself "lost" them their weekly matchups with his duds, by the same measure he "won" some people weekly matchups with his booms - and by being in the lineup instead of other top RB's.

These stats are pretty misleading.  By the charts above, you'd think Jones should be grouped with CMC and Ingram. 

What matters is how many more or less points he scores than the other RBs for any given week.  

As an overly simplistic way of thinking about it, by the logic above, RB A could score just one point less than RB B in 15 games.  And 15 points more in the remaining game.  By your metrics, he'd be 1-15.  When in reality, he'd be the better RB to own in fantasy.

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

These stats are pretty misleading.  By the charts above, you'd think Jones should be grouped with CMC and Ingram. 

What matters is how many more or less points he scores than the other RBs for any given week.  

As an overly simplistic way of thinking about it, by the logic above, RB A could score just one point less than RB B in 15 games.  And 15 points more in the remaining game.  By your metrics, he'd be 1-15.  When in reality, he'd be the better RB to own in fantasy.

The stats show Jones was consistently better, on a weekly basis, than most of the top RB's. Even though some people view him as inconsistent. But to each their own on how they view things.

As far as your example, in a vacuum, I would absolutely take RB B. To also use an overly simplistic way of thinking about your example:

RB A: 14 PPG x 15 games = 210 points
RB B: 15 PPG x 15 games  = 225 points
So in these 15 games, RB A (the RB you like better) went 0-15 against RB B.

RB A: 30 PPG x 1 game = 30 points
RB B: 15 PPG x 1 game = 15 points
So in this 1 game, RB A (the RB you like better) went 1-0 against RB B.

RB A = 240 points
RB B = 240 points
So overall, RB A went 1-15 as you mention.

So they both scored the exact same amount of points.
You would rather have RB A, even though he went 1-15 against RB B, who you could've had on your team instead.
I'd rather have RB B, as he gave me a better chance to win 15 out of 16 times.
Perhaps the week that RB A scored 15 points more than RB B, RB A's team was in a blowout regardless of the 15 extra points. 
And perhaps RB B had 3 games decided by a single point, and the 1 extra point in those 15 weeks swung the difference.

I don't think Aaron Jones is either RB A or RB B in these simplistic examples :) 

Edited by Corleone

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I, for one, hope that Jones remains undervalued come draft season.  Maybe we have a buying opportunity along the lines of Henry and Carson in 2019.

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10 hours ago, BMcP said:

I, for one, hope that Jones remains undervalued come draft season.  Maybe we have a buying opportunity along the lines of Henry and Carson in 2019.

That would be nice, I still don't understand why he doesn't get any love on these boards

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2 hours ago, hockeyfan77 said:

That would be nice, I still don't understand why he doesn't get any love on these boards

I think @Corleone has done an excellent job of explaining why he deserves much more love.

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11 hours ago, BMcP said:

I think @Corleone has done an excellent job of explaining why he deserves much more love.

Thanks very much! I do what I can.

So far since his rookie season in which he showed much promise, here is how Jones has fared in ADP amongst RB's and actual fantasy finish amongst RB's.

image.png.48be09781a1abf8be55ad977945fa086.png

In 2018, it was understandable why his ADP amongst RB's was at #44. He had a 2-game suspension to open the season and Jamaal Williams had a chance to take hold of the lead role. His finish as the #24 RB was quite impressive, since he missed those 2 suspension games and then had an injury that knocked him out for the final 2 games (and most of the 3rd-to-last game as well). 

A very small amount of people here predicted Jones would be a Top 10 RB in 2019 (I remember this well, as the one who started the Jones 2019 thread). Yet he was drafted only as the #16 RB. He shattered his ADP by finishing as the #2 RB.

He's beat the ADP expectations twice. As you said, he may able to be drafted at a relative discount yet again in 2020, which could be a nice bonus for those who are high on Jones.

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On 2/11/2020 at 10:26 PM, hockeyfan77 said:

That would be nice, I still don't understand why he doesn't get any love on these boards

I think everyone loves the talent.   And agrees that he's a valuable fantasy asset.

But the debate is really about where he should be drafted.    He busts just about 1 our of every 3 games so for me, I'm not touching him in the first round.

Unless there is something that says he's going to assume more work and/or have more passing plays designed for him.

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

I think everyone loves the talent.   And agrees that he's a valuable fantasy asset.

But the debate is really about where he should be drafted.    He busts just about 1 our of every 3 games so for me, I'm not touching him in the first round.

Unless there is something that says he's going to assume more work and/or have more passing plays designed for him.

The numbers Corleone has presented don't appear to support your stance. Or your stance is one such that there aren't enough players in 10-14 team leagues worth drafting in the 1st round.

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On 2/14/2020 at 6:49 PM, devaster said:

The numbers Corleone has presented don't appear to support your stance. Or your stance is one such that there aren't enough players in 10-14 team leagues worth drafting in the 1st round.

I'm not sure which numbers you're referring to.  If it's the ones related to Jones beating other RBs on a weekly basis, I don't think those are valid to use for comparison.

I'll add that I don't buy into the final finishing numbers (ie: Jones finished as the #2 RB) or average per game for fantasy.  This completely dismisses the bust games.  Of which he had 5. 

Imo, a first round pick needs to be consistent.   Jones was not that. 

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Serious question: how many non-QBs finished with fewer than five “bust” games in 2019?

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29 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Serious question: how many non-QBs finished with fewer than five “bust” games in 2019?

Also its such an arbitrary definition of bust vs. non bust. 7.8 fantasy points is a total bust, but 10.1 isn't a bust at all. So, one 13 yard swing pass in one game is going to make a difference when comparing two players? 

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4 hours ago, K197040 said:

I'm not sure which numbers you're referring to.  If it's the ones related to Jones beating other RBs on a weekly basis, I don't think those are valid to use for comparison.

I'll add that I don't buy into the final finishing numbers (ie: Jones finished as the #2 RB) or average per game for fantasy.  This completely dismisses the bust games.  Of which he had 5. 

Imo, a first round pick needs to be consistent.   Jones was not that. 

Jones was good enough to rank as the #4 RB in terms of being on winning teams in 2019 (and was just .05 away from the #2 spot).
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-christian-mccaffrey-runs-roughshod-in-win-percentage-analysis-for-top-40-running-backs-too/

You've mentioned before that you lost two late-season games "because of" duds from Jones. Send a screenshot of your team's schedule/results from 2019. Let's see how you would have done with someone besides Jones on your team.

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8 hours ago, BMcP said:

Serious question: how many non-QBs finished with fewer than five “bust” games in 2019?

Was thinking the same thing

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16 hours ago, Corleone said:

Jones was good enough to rank as the #4 RB in terms of being on winning teams in 2019 (and was just .05 away from the #2 spot).
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-christian-mccaffrey-runs-roughshod-in-win-percentage-analysis-for-top-40-running-backs-too/

You've mentioned before that you lost two late-season games "because of" duds from Jones. Send a screenshot of your team's schedule/results from 2019. Let's see how you would have done with someone besides Jones on your team.

LOL.  No thanks.  I'm more than capable of playing "what if" by myself.  

 

And I'm sure that none of those teams took Jones in the first round. 

Edited by K197040

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18 hours ago, BMcP said:

Serious question: how many non-QBs finished with fewer than five “bust” games in 2019?

I'd like to see this too.  But for the purposes of this discussion, I think we can limit it to first round picks.  

 

 

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28 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I'd like to see this too.  But for the purposes of this discussion, I think we can limit it to first round picks.  

 

 

Right - if you only busted four or fewer times last year, I assume you’re a first-rounder this year.

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13 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Right - if you only busted four or fewer times last year, I assume you’re a first-rounder this year.

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. 

 

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2 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. 

 

Not at all

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24 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Not at all

Just scanning through it, that's a bigger list than I thought.   More than 12.  But I'm including WR.

 

 

 

 

Edited by K197040
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On 2/18/2020 at 10:39 AM, K197040 said:

LOL.  No thanks.  I'm more than capable of playing "what if" by myself.  

 

And I'm sure that none of those teams took Jones in the first round. 

That's the point though. Take a RB that is projected to go in the 2020 first round and who is "more consistent" than Jones. And let's see how your team would have fared with that RB instead of Jones. You are holding the busts from Jones against him, but don't seem to give him enough credit for his big games. 

At the end of the day, some of it just comes down to preference I suppose. Let's compare Jones to Fournette, by seeing their weekly ranks amongst other RB's in PPR (and I'm not saying you personally are proposing Fournette over Jones).

image.png.f7dd053372a17fb720b725795c1cb7e5.png

The games in green are RB1 weeks. They both had 7.
The games in yellow are RB2 weeks. They both had 4.
The games in orange are RB3 weeks. Fournette wins 3 games to 1.
The games in red are bust weeks. Jones loses 4 games to 1.

So they both had 11 weeks in which they had an RB1 or RB2 week. And Fournette didn't have as many bust weeks. So one could say that Fournette was more consistent in that sense. But for me, the difference in productivity from the RB1/RB2 games is glaring. And while Fournette was better in his RB3/Bust games, RB3 games aren't getting you wins on a weekly basis. That's part of why amongst fantasy RB's in 2019, Jones had the 4th highest winning percentage, while Fournette was 12th.

Edited by Corleone
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