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Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook


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9 minutes ago, K197040 said:

What "silliness"?

Jone's isn't going to score 19 TDs again?

Dillon looks like he's going to cut into some goalline work?

McCarthy likes to have a committee?

I don't think anyone is arguing about his talent.   It's obvious.

But it seems like McCarthy wants him fresh for the end of the season.   Like in weeks 15 and 16 and playoffs where Jones got 23, 25, and 21 carries.

And it's hard to argue with that plan because of the success the team had.   I don't know why he would want to change things up.  Now add in Dillon who I agree will take more work away from Williams than Jones.  But Williams is still there and isn't terrible.   I think all three get used and it will be frustrating to have taken Jones and having him as a must start as your RB1 or RB2.

And calling him a top 6 RB is pretty crazy imo.  Regardless of how he finished last season. 

 

 

None of this is new. He was already in a committee last year. They have always managed his workload.

This is hilarious because, ultimately people are knocking down Jones because... he scored too many TDs last year. Look, if he'd scored 10 TDs last year and finished as RB7, instead of 19 TDs and RB2, this conversation wouldn't be happening. There would be no regression narrative, and I believe Jones would be a consensus elite back.

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Suddenly lots of love in here. You mean we shouldn't be shying away because his team used a mid round pick (last pick of the second round) on a depth/insurance RB. I thought that was supposed to be th

Some people believe that their "RB1" has to be a "workhorse RB". But the trend of the workhorse RB as it used to be thought of, is getting close to extinct. I've looked up RB trends for Top 12 RB's (i

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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

how do you keep your defense from constantly being on the field?

by ramming the other team with your running game ... but, yeah, your point(s) make a ton more sense. 

btw, this ain't vintage "Air ARod" & Mike Mc ... new regime, new offense - Dillon will get run, amigo. 

How do you come back from a deficit when your team's down because your defense suck? Run the ball up the middle, of course. Right, thanks, hombres.

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55 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

A lot of silliness here. 

Williams got a lot of run last year. Dillon has a good chance to steal that work. Unless you think Dillon is going to take over as the starter, it isn't a problem for Jones. He will be fine even with a 60%-ish workload.

Adams getting hurt is a really weird argument against Jones. Sure, he might have gotten a few more targets with Adams out, but if he's healthy, the offense is so much better that it helps everyone.

Also, I brought up broken tackles because it's a reminder that Jones is one of the most talented backs in the NFL. 

Honestly, if not for workload, he'd be a top 3 RB for me. He's still a top half RB1, as is.

One of the most talented backs? Top 3? Barkley, Zeke, Chubb, Hunt, Jacobs, Henry,Kamara, Mixon, Drake, and arguably Fournette are more talented IMO. 

Top half rb1 that would mean top 6. 1.CMC 2. Barkley 3. Zeke 4. Kamara 5. Cook 6. Mixon 7. Henry  8. Drake 9. Probably CEH   Then you have Jacobs/Sanders/IMO Fournette. 

In what world can you justify a guy who splits carries 3 ways on a mediocre offense to be a top 6 running back and over those guys?

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8 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

None of this is new. He was already in a committee last year. They have always managed his workload.

This is hilarious because, ultimately people are knocking down Jones because... he scored too many TDs last year. Look, if he'd scored 10 TDs last year and finished as RB7, instead of 19 TDs and RB2, this conversation wouldn't be happening. There would be no regression narrative, and I believe Jones would be a consensus elite back.

No one's knocking Jones.  It's just making the point that he isn't going to score 19 TD's again. 

So take off 9 TDs, and he's the #10 RB in terms of per game average.   And now CEH is in the mix.  And a probable workhorse role for Sanders.  Also Drake with a full season as a Cardinal.   

The Expert Consensus has him at 12 which seems about right. 

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3 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

One of the most talented backs? Top 3? Barkley, Zeke, Chubb, Hunt, Jacobs, Henry,Kamara, Mixon, Drake, and arguably Fournette are more talented IMO. 

Top half rb1 that would mean top 6. 1.CMC 2. Barkley 3. Zeke 4. Kamara 5. Cook 6. Mixon 7. Henry  8. Drake 9. Probably CEH   Then you have Jacobs/Sanders/IMO Fournette. 

In what world can you justify a guy who splits carries 3 ways on a mediocre offense to be a top 6 running back and over those guys?

I agree with a lot of what you said. 

But Jones's talent level is up near the top.   I think he's more talented than anyone on that list except for Barkley and CMC. 

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3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I agree with a lot of what you said. 

But Jones's talent level is up near the top.   I think he's more talented than anyone on that list except for Barkley and CMC. 

Based on what? 1 big season? Definitely not in measurables based on his pro day or combine. Physically he is not, production wise he is not. I will give you top 15 maybe, but who really cares. RB worth is all about touches and he was already giving a lot of Williams who is actually really talented and they were one game from the super bowl, why not keep the same formula. Dillon is a potential stud and they can let Jones walk, they owe him nothing. 

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2 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Based on what? 1 big season? Definitely not in measurables based on his pro day or combine. Physically he is not, production wise he is not. I will give you top 15 maybe, but who really cares. RB worth is all about touches and he was already giving a lot of Williams who is actually really talented and they were one game from the super bowl, why not keep the same formula. Dillon is a potential stud and they can let Jones walk, they owe him nothing. 

We'll have to disagree on that.   In fact, you put Kamara in your talented back list but Jones had very similar (and in most metrics, better) results than Kamara.

I've owned Jones the last two years and have watched a ton of his games.  He's a fantastic RB.  For you to put Fournette over him is pretty ridiculous.  IMO.

But anyway, I agree with you that Jones is a risky pick.

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35 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

One of the most talented backs? Top 3? Barkley, Zeke, Chubb, Hunt, Jacobs, Henry,Kamara, Mixon, Drake, and arguably Fournette are more talented IMO. 

Top half rb1 that would mean top 6. 1.CMC 2. Barkley 3. Zeke 4. Kamara 5. Cook 6. Mixon 7. Henry  8. Drake 9. Probably CEH   Then you have Jacobs/Sanders/IMO Fournette. 

In what world can you justify a guy who splits carries 3 ways on a mediocre offense to be a top 6 running back and over those guys?

I have him right after Cook. Don't know what Mixon, Henry, Drake, etc do better than Jones.

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34 minutes ago, K197040 said:

No one's knocking Jones.  It's just making the point that he isn't going to score 19 TD's again. 

So take off 9 TDs, and he's the #10 RB in terms of per game average.   And now CEH is in the mix.  And a probable workhorse role for Sanders.  Also Drake with a full season as a Cardinal.   

The Expert Consensus has him at 12 which seems about right. 

I have him as RB8 in PPR minus 9 TDs. That seems more reasonable. No way I put a rookie ahead of him,  or Kenyan Drake. You could make an argument for Sanders, I guess.

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7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I have him as RB8 in PPR minus 9 TDs. That seems more reasonable. No way I put a rookie ahead of him,  or Kenyan Drake. You could make an argument for Sanders, I guess.

That's fair enough I suppose.

Although you were the one who called him a Top 6 RB.  

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https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/08/16/re-signing-rb-aaron-jones-now-a-priority-for-packers/

Does this add anything to the calculus for his 2020 outlook? 

Had Ajones last year and loved his production.Have been reading all the pros and cons. Super-talented guy, but the potential time-share and TD regression has me thinking he'll end up around 10th-12th best fantasy RBs (as others have projected). 

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I see him just like Eckler.

 

He is on a team with very few weapons...and rodgers really only trusts Adams and Jones...and they have no problems using Jones near the goal line.

He's a great RB2 who will have an okay floor, and the occasional blow up game that will win you a couple weeks. He's explosive, and that's what you get with players like that. 

You guys are acting like he didn't produce, and is going to get usurped by Dillon, a rookie. 

How often do we see that? He'd really have to drop the ball to lose a significant amount of touches to me.

He's basically Eckler with a much better QB.

 

ADP is just an estimate...but I could see Fournette playing better this year...but who knows. 🙂 This is all a crap shoot. Listen to experts to get an idea, but then go get the guys you want. 

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1 minute ago, isuckatdfs said:

I would hate aaron jones as my rb1 but i do like him as an rb2 when you start rb rb

 

I would do that provided I was late enough in Round 2 to ensure I was getting a very good WR next.  

11 minutes ago, FooserX said:

I see him just like Eckler.

 

He is on a team with very few weapons...and rodgers really only trusts Adams and Jones...and they have no problems using Jones near the goal line.

He's a great RB2 who will have an okay floor, and the occasional blow up game that will win you a couple weeks. He's explosive, and that's what you get with players like that. 

You guys are acting like he didn't produce, and is going to get usurped by Dillon, a rookie. 

How often do we see that? He'd really have to drop the ball to lose a significant amount of touches to me.

He's basically Eckler with a much better QB.

 

ADP is just an estimate...but I could see Fournette playing better this year...but who knows. 🙂 This is all a crap shoot. Listen to experts to get an idea, but then go get the guys you want. 

He had 3 games under 5 fantasy points and 5 games under 10.  I don't consider that a very safe floor. 

That could change though if he can get 4-5 receptions per game.

And maybe with the lack of WRs, they use him in that role more often. 

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39 minutes ago, FooserX said:

I see him just like Eckler.

 

He is on a team with very few weapons...and rodgers really only trusts Adams and Jones...and they have no problems using Jones near the goal line.

He's a great RB2 who will have an okay floor, and the occasional blow up game that will win you a couple weeks. He's explosive, and that's what you get with players like that. 

You guys are acting like he didn't produce, and is going to get usurped by Dillon, a rookie. 

How often do we see that? He'd really have to drop the ball to lose a significant amount of touches to me.

He's basically Eckler with a much better QB.

 

ADP is just an estimate...but I could see Fournette playing better this year...but who knows. 🙂 This is all a crap shoot. Listen to experts to get an idea, but then go get the guys you want. 

He is NOT eckler. Eckler is in line to catch 50 or more passes. Eckler got a fat contract and the team committed to him. Eckler doesn't have 2 talented rbs behind him who the coach loves to use and why wouldn't he they were a game away from the super bowl with that formula. Not worth a 2nd round pick and yes I would rather have fournette. Also rookie running backs come in a dominate all the time zeke, barkley, adrian peterson, list goes on and on. 

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

That's fair enough I suppose.

Although you were the one who called him a Top 6 RB.  

Yeah. I have him 6th, but can understand anywhere from 6 to about 10. The fact that the consensus has him outside the top ten is nuts.

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1 hour ago, DrRazvi said:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/08/16/re-signing-rb-aaron-jones-now-a-priority-for-packers/

Does this add anything to the calculus for his 2020 outlook? 

Had Ajones last year and loved his production.Have been reading all the pros and cons. Super-talented guy, but the potential time-share and TD regression has me thinking he'll end up around 10th-12th best fantasy RBs (as others have projected). 

Bums me a little for dynasty. I want him somewhere where he can be a bellcow.

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

Even bellcows have COP backups.  

The problem is when Williams played last season it was damn near a 50/50 split. Now they spend a second round pick on the RB position.

Just not into Jones at his ADP. Seems like he is going to be more TD dependent than some other guys in that range. I’m not insanely low on him or anything but I don’t think I’d consider him until the 20-25 range. High to mid second round is too rich for my taste.

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On 8/18/2020 at 5:12 PM, ajs723 said:

Yeah. I have him 6th, but can understand anywhere from 6 to about 10. The fact that the consensus has him outside the top ten is nuts.

IDK...I mean, those guys are experts.  Sure some of them are pretty bad.   But it's pretty easy to make a compelling case why he should be outside top ten.

Easy picks over him: CMC, Zeke, Saquon, Kamara, CEH, Cook, Sanders, Mixon, Jacobs

....as I'm looking through the list, I'm starting to think you're right. Or at least not way off.

Maybe Drake but probably not Henry.   

Again...my biggest problem was with you having him as top 6.  

 

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On 8/18/2020 at 5:13 PM, ajs723 said:

Bums me a little for dynasty. I want him somewhere where he can be a bellcow.

I don't think he'd be a bellcow anywhere in today's NFL.  He missed 4 games in each of his first 2 years.   I don't think he'd hold up to a Zeke workload.   I've said it several times....if they used him like Kamara, I'd be thrilled to have him.    Some 1/2 work and almost all of the passing downs.  

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11 hours ago, K197040 said:

IDK...I mean, those guys are experts.  Sure some of them are pretty bad.   But it's pretty easy to make a compelling case why he should be outside top ten.

Easy picks over him: CMC, Zeke, Saquon, Kamara, CEH, Cook, Sanders, Mixon, Jacobs

....as I'm looking through the list, I'm starting to think you're right. Or at least not way off.

Maybe Drake but probably not Henry.   

Again...my biggest problem was with you having him as top 6.  

 

CEH might be the next Barry Sanders, but I'm not taking a rookie over a proven superstar 99/100 times. Not like CEH was a Barkley or Zeke level prospect.

Jones, Sanders, Jacobs, Mixon make up a tier for me. I think all of these guys are good, but I think Jones has the best combination of situation, talent, and track record. 

Sanders was hurt last year, and is banged up again right now. I don't really care about that stuff, just putting it out there for the injury prone crowd. More importantly, everyone forgets that Philly always devolves into a committee too. All those knocks about Dillon, why no concern about Boston Scott getting all the passing down work, and Corey Clement plus street FAs playing meaningful snaps. It's inevitable.

Jacobs is right there too, but do you trust the Raider offense to be decent as much as you trust the Packers. This is a make or break year for Carr, and I have a feeling that it's going go break. I also don't know how involved he's truly going to be in the passing game.

 

With Mixon, there are just so many question marks. Why did he struggle so much last year? Will the rookie QB be any good. How well will the 2nd year head coach adjust to defenses knowing his system (ahem Matt Nagy). He also comes with some off field baggage.

 

Again, those guys all share a tier with Jones, but none are above him, for me.

 

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