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B&F

Josh Bell 2020 Outlook

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A guy who single-handedly had my team in first place the first half of last season.  Then was terrible the second half.

Not sure how to value him.  ADP is about the 6th round.  

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44 minutes ago, B&F said:

A guy who single-handedly had my team in first place the first half of last season.  Then was terrible the second half.

Not sure how to value him.  ADP is about the 6th round.  

What if I told you he would do the same thing again? Would you take him 6th round?

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18 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

What if I told you he would do the same thing again? Would you take him 6th round?


Probably would.

There are players being drafted after him I would rather have though.  The second half nose dive concerns me a bit.


 

 

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3 hours ago, B&F said:

A guy who single-handedly had my team in first place the first half of last season.  Then was terrible the second half.

Not sure how to value him.  ADP is about the 6th round.  

I would take a shot on him in the 6th

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23 hours ago, B&F said:

There are players being drafted after him I would rather have though.

Yeah, that's kinda how I feel.

2019 was Josh Bell's career year. The question is: will he continue that same type of production in 2020? His historical stats suggest "no". But, it's always great to root for the guy that breaks out. I probably wouldn't take him in the 6th round though since that seems a bit skewed on just 1 year's production. However, if he produces like that again, then the 6th round sounds right. It seems like a gamble to me.

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He's one of the more difficult guys to rank. In his amazing first half he had corrected his IFFB% that plagued him his entire career(he was a weak pop up king), from his usual double digits-ish down to 2.1%(12th best in the 1st half). On top of that he was murdering the ball, 13th in the league in hard hit and 11th lowest soft contact. That "first half" made up nearly 2/3 of his PA's on the year, so I'm not ready to write him off because 1/3 of his season he struggled. Especially for a guy that was still top 10% in the league in exit velo, hard hit%, xSLG, and xwOBA for whole season. I think he's just a young guy going through the normal ups and downs of figuring his swing out. This year I'm guessing his 1st half isn't as good as last year and his 2nd half is better than the previous. I've got him in the second tier of 1B with Goldy, Abreu, and Rizzo and right now I'd take him above them all. 

 

 

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Items that stand out on a semi-deeper look:

1st Half: 10.8% BB%, 20.4% K%, .315 BABIP, 2.1% IFFB%, 0.9% IFH%, 10.9% soft%

2nd Half: 14.2% BB%, 17.3% K%, .241 BABIP, 13.3% IFFB%, 7.6% IFH%, 17.2% soft%

So he walked more, struck out less, got pretty unlucky, but hit the ball softer.  His HR/FB crashed too from 28.4% to 16.7%.

Just looks like he was on another level, one that couldn't be sustained, and regression to the mean hit hard.  At the end of the first half he was on pace for like 50 HR, 150 RBIs so he was bound to fall back to earth.

.275/.365 - 30 - 100 - 80 - 0 seems very doable.  Basically Jose Abreu with more walks and a better OBP.  I think Bell has better power than Abreu as well, though Abreu has a much better surrounding lineup and will likely get more RBI+R.

 

Edited by En Votto Veritas
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19 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Items that stand out on a semi-deeper look:

1st Half: 10.8% BB%, 20.4% K%, .315 BABIP, 2.1% IFFB%, 0.9% IFH%, 10.9% soft%

2nd Half: 14.2% BB%, 17.3% K%, .241 BABIP, 13.3% IFFB%, 7.6% IFH%, 17.2% soft%

So he walked more, struck out less, got pretty unlucky, but hit the ball softer.  His HR/FB crashed too from 28.4% to 16.7%.

Just looks like he was on another level, one that couldn't be sustained, and regression to the mean hit hard.  At the end of the first half he was on pace for like 50 HR, 150 RBIs so he was bound to fall back to earth.

.275/.365 - 30 - 100 - 80 - 0 seems very doable.  Basically Jose Abreu with more walks and a better OBP.  I think Bell has better power than Abreu as well, though Abreu has a much better surrounding lineup and will likely get more RBI+R.

 

agreed with all of this.    I see no reason to select Goldy a few rounds earlier than Bell, at current ADPs.

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2 minutes ago, PunchNJudy said:

agreed with all of this.    I see no reason to select Goldy a few rounds earlier than Bell, at current ADPs.

 

I am fading Goldy.  His K% is increasing, BB% decreasing, and it looks like his ~.300 AVG was due to a ~.350 BABIP.  That sunk to .303 last season (and a .260 AVG to go with it).  Lineup surrounding him does not look strong at all which means pitchers may not feel the need to walk him as often.  Would definitely take Bell/Abreu over him.  Would even consider Mancini or C Santana at a later point.

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Bell's best strangth is the fact he's a power hitter that can also be an asset in average. If he can get a little lucky BABIP wise and produce a .290 -.300 average he will be a monster. He seems a bit undervalued at ADP of 89 at NFBC. He hit 37 HR last year, and that was only in 527 AB. Have to think if he avoids injury he will easily surpass 600 ABs this year. With his on base profile he should have a solid chance to reach 100 R as well. Could end up being a legit 4 category asset, with a downside of being more of a 3 category guy. Pittsburgh's lineup isn't amazing but they are decent enough at the top (Frazier, Newman, Marte) that Bell should have no problem driving in around 100 runs.

As posters noted above he is going a full round after Abreu, which seems ridiculous considering they are very similar players. Goldschmidt almost 2 rounds ahead when Bell had more HR, RBI, and AVG (and only 3 less runs). Unless people are thinking Goldschmidt will turn the clock back 3 seasons and start stealing bases again this makes little sense. Then if you look at guys going behind him you find Trey Mancini, Rhys Hoskins, Yuli Gurriel, etc. - all of which Bell severely outperformed.

Just looks like a situation where people are running scared from his second half. I think its an overreaction. He actually had a pretty good August then missed most of September. Just had a dreadful 2 months in June - July.

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He's probably more valuable in points leagues due to his K% and BB%. I would be happy with a .275 average, 30+ homers, 80+ runs, and 90+ RBI. 

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