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colepenhagen

Cavan Biggio 2020 Outlook

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pretty cheap 20/20 threat with decent lineup and counting stats. might be a drag on avg but for those going 4 cat guys early (arenado/jdm) biggio and senzel could be nice cheaper power/speed options later

14/14 on sb is nice

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38 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

pretty cheap 20/20 threat with decent lineup and counting stats. might be a drag on avg but for those going 4 cat guys early (arenado/jdm) biggio and senzel could be nice cheaper power/speed options later

14/14 on sb is nice

but is nice in OBP leagues

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7 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

 

His average may also go up a bit. He's got a good eye, and got called out on a lot of outside pitches. That may change as he gets some respect around the league.

 

Sorry I quoted you there. Accidental.

Edited by jasonpark87

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All over him in OBP leagues. Dude has a tremendous eye at the plate, should be a lock for a .340 OBP with potential to be around .375. Top 10 launch angle, which will limit his BABIP, but his .309 BABIP last year was low given how hard he hits the ball and his sprint speed. This should in theory pull his average up a bit, the only category he can hurt you.

Little blurb from Grey at Razzball: He averaged 225 feet on his fly balls last year, which was the 2nd best for a launch angle in the top ten, only coming in 2nd to Mike Trout. Biggio could hit 30 homers easily, but feels like a lock for 24-plus. Finally, his speed- Biggio was only caught stealing once in 20 tries in 2019 (5/6 in AAA, 14/14 in MLB), and will be in a place where opportunities for steals will be in abundance, because, honestly, what else are the Jays doing? They’re at least two years away, so they’ll give their young players lots of at-bats and opportunities to prove themselves on the basepaths. Not getting caught will only enhance Biggio’s chances, which is great for us. For 2020, I’ll give Cavan Biggio projections of 71/25/78/.246/20 in 571 ABs with a chance for more.

I personally think Grey's run projection above is too low, as Biggio had 66 runs in 100 games. This is a 162 game pace of 107.. 

Biggio has a legitmate shot at finishing top 60 overall in OBP leagues, and is currently going between 110-125 in drafts. 2B thins out relatively quick, and those in OBP leagues should be looking hard at him anywhere after pick 65-70.

I project him at 90/26/72/.250/.358OBP, 22 steals*

*For perspective, Altuve is typically the 1st or 2nd 2B off the board, his average season over the past 2 years? 130 games, 88/22/68/.308/.370/13 steals..

Biggio has a legitimate shot to top every single one of those categories except BA, and can be had 6-8 rounds later. I'm in.  

 

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Brian Dozier is pretty realistic career arch in 5X5.

Also, don't think his BABIP was low given his very FB centric approach. There is going to be a lot of K's due to being deep in counts oftens and FB's with crap BABIP outcomes. More hangtime=more time for defenders to get under it.

You gotta have a elite feel for contact or power for a super patient approach pay off with a healthy BA.

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Agree with everyone's points but that floor is awfully scary.  Kind of reminds me of Odor (with 5 more steals maybe) and Steamer agrees.  100 picks higher for the shiny new toy? Not sure I want to pay that tax.

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Agree with everyone's points but that floor is awfully scary.  Kind of reminds me of Odor (with 5 more steals maybe) and Steamer agrees.  100 picks higher for the shiny new toy? Not sure I want to pay that tax.

Nothing like Odor IMO, Odor's best season in OBP is .326...Totally different hitters, who knows maybe I just like guys that get on base! 

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13 minutes ago, hockeyfan77 said:

Nothing like Odor IMO, Odor's best season in OBP is .326...Totally different hitters, who knows maybe I just like guys that get on base! 

I’m talking avg league only. Steamer has them essentially the same.

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The uncertainty associated with him makes me want to pass at #132 (13th 2B off the board by NFC ADP).  Newman is sitting there at #195 and has a high floor, ol' Cesar Hernandez is hiding at #283, and Segura will be 2B this year and can be had at #186.  None of them have the raw power, but Biggio K'd at nearly 30% and if the ball isn't juiced, who knows?  A line of .240/.340 - 15 - 65 - 90 - 15 doesn't look great in the 10th round.  Cesar Hernandez can do that and add 30 points to the BA.  🤷‍♂️

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

I’m talking avg league only. Steamer has them essentially the same.

obp affects alot more cats like sb and runs. comparing odor and biggio isnt realistic as odor has reached obp of 300+ 1 time. completely  different players and approach at the plate

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36 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

obp affects alot more cats like sb and runs. comparing odor and biggio isnt realistic as odor has reached obp of 300+ 1 time. completely  different players and approach at the plate

I was analogizing then based on steamer numbers for traditional 5x5. Nothing more nothing less.

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Why is no one talking about him? 

6 HR/4 SB

18% K rate, 15% BB rate

.247 ISO, .290 BABIP with a .267 BA

9% Soft% (42% Hard%)

21.6% LD/29.7% GB/48.6% FB

7.9% SwStrk%

Are these not elite numbers?

 

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8 minutes ago, Fantasy Dork said:

Why is no one talking about him? 

6 HR/4 SB

18% K rate, 15% BB rate

.247 ISO, .290 BABIP with a .267 BA

9% Soft% (42% Hard%)

21.6% LD/29.7% GB/48.6% FB

7.9% SwStrk%

Are these not elite numbers?

 

 

The board has been quiet on a lot of players.  I do not believe there are as many people playing fantasy baseball this season.

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3 hours ago, Fantasy Dork said:

Why is no one talking about him? 

6 HR/4 SB

18% K rate, 15% BB rate

.247 ISO, .290 BABIP with a .267 BA

9% Soft% (42% Hard%)

21.6% LD/29.7% GB/48.6% FB

7.9% SwStrk%

Are these not elite numbers?

When players are doing well there is usually little talk about them.  This isn't a fan site where people usually jump in and say hurrah that much.  Yes he is doing excellent and has a .393 OBP to go with those stats which makes him super elite in OBP leagues.  But he was that way last year too so it isn't news any more.

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153 wRC+

He's an absolute stud in OBP leagues. Will be interesting to see how far he shoots up draft boards for 2021. Gotta figure he goes in the top 50-60 in standard leagues and top 30 in OBP leagues. 

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With how shallow 2B tends to be and assuming he finishes strong, I can't see letting him get out of the fourth round even in AVG leagues next year.  In OBP you might have to spend a late 2nd / early 3rd to get him, and I'm not sure you'd be wrong to do so given how many other highly-drafted 2B have struggled (Altuve, Marte, Muncy) or been hurt (Gleyber, Albies, LeMahieu).  Position scarcity isn't really showing up that much in the 2020 numbers right now until you get into the CI/MI range, but the perception and history of 2B being scarce is going to push him just like it did with other 2B this year.  He was already being pushed up by the name value and fantasy-friendly tool profile heading into this year, and the hype is only going to grow.

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As far as I remember going into this season everything hinged on him getting that K rate down.  All the other peripherals were in order, he was just going too deep into counts, passing on good pitches, then swinging at crap.  Honestly everything else in his profile looks very similar this season, perhaps with the sole exception of he's hitting to opposite field more than center now.  But that K rate:

2019: 28.6%  🤮

2020: 19.7%  💪

Dude is money.  And when Bichette comes back he will be money plus more money.  And when Vlad Jr stops hitting so many ground balls and starts driving, Biggio will be money cubed.  

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1 minute ago, En Votto Veritas said:

As far as I remember going into this season everything hinged on him getting that K rate down.  All the other peripherals were in order, he was just going too deep into counts, passing on good pitches, then swinging at crap.  Honestly everything else in his profile looks very similar this season, perhaps with the sole exception of he's hitting to opposite field more than center now.  But that K rate:

2019: 28.6%  🤮

2020: 19.7%  💪

Dude is money.  And when Bichette comes back he will be money plus more money.  And when Vlad Jr stops hitting so many ground balls and starts driving, Biggio will be money cubed.  

 

Yes, this was what made me bump this thread. 

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On 1/21/2020 at 10:23 AM, Motown_Magic said:

All over him in OBP leagues. Dude has a tremendous eye at the plate, should be a lock for a .340 OBP with potential to be around .375. Top 10 launch angle, which will limit his BABIP, but his .309 BABIP last year was low given how hard he hits the ball and his sprint speed. This should in theory pull his average up a bit, the only category he can hurt you.

Little blurb from Grey at Razzball: He averaged 225 feet on his fly balls last year, which was the 2nd best for a launch angle in the top ten, only coming in 2nd to Mike Trout. Biggio could hit 30 homers easily, but feels like a lock for 24-plus. Finally, his speed- Biggio was only caught stealing once in 20 tries in 2019 (5/6 in AAA, 14/14 in MLB), and will be in a place where opportunities for steals will be in abundance, because, honestly, what else are the Jays doing? They’re at least two years away, so they’ll give their young players lots of at-bats and opportunities to prove themselves on the basepaths. Not getting caught will only enhance Biggio’s chances, which is great for us. For 2020, I’ll give Cavan Biggio projections of 71/25/78/.246/20 in 571 ABs with a chance for more.

I personally think Grey's run projection above is too low, as Biggio had 66 runs in 100 games. This is a 162 game pace of 107.. 

Biggio has a legitmate shot at finishing top 60 overall in OBP leagues, and is currently going between 110-125 in drafts. 2B thins out relatively quick, and those in OBP leagues should be looking hard at him anywhere after pick 65-70.

I project him at 90/26/72/.250/.358OBP, 22 steals*

*For perspective, Altuve is typically the 1st or 2nd 2B off the board, his average season over the past 2 years? 130 games, 88/22/68/.308/.370/13 steals..

Biggio has a legitimate shot to top every single one of those categories except BA, and can be had 6-8 rounds later. I'm in.  

 

Not a "pat self on the back post" but I did want to check back on these projections and take a quick look at how his season would have extrapolated.

 

Assuming 600 ABs here which is what he was pacing:

Cavan was on pace for 112 runs, 22 HRs, 76 RBIs, 16.5 steals, 112 BB's (!!!) and 167 Ks. Throw in a .250 AVG and a .374 OBP here. 

 

He finished as the #4 2B in my OBP league, and I am glad to see my January projections were almost spot on. He may never be a 30 steal threat in the big leagues, but Cavan Biggio looks to be a perennial 100 run guy, chipping in a .375 OBP at minimum, and should flirt with 25/20 seasons for years to come. 

Dynasty asset, and a redraft asset as well. Easy top 5 at his position in OBP leagues going forward. Stud

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Not that it's the end all be all, but his statcast page was pretty brutal for this year. xBA of .214 and xSLG of .347 and he was bottom of the barrel in every category they have minus sprint speed and whiff %. I'm interested to see how he does over a full year, those x stats are pretty brutal but if he can figure things out and manage to slug around .470 he'd be a fantasy monster with the OBP and counting stats that come with it.

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Surprised he's been able to maintain a healthy BABIP being a pull left so far. Not worried about regressing to anything as bad as .214.  .240's is more likely. Doesn't change a ton here because you are getting for 20/20 @ 2B with healthy counting numbers. You are just hoping the BA wont be very harmful.

 

OBP he is going to be stud no matter what.

 

 

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