Sign in to follow this  
SpecialFNK

Christian Vasquez 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

was Christian Vasquez 2019 season for real?

he went from 3 HR and .207 AVG in 2018 to 23 HR and .276 AVG in 2019.

 

he apparently had a swing change..

https://nesn.com/2019/07/how-christian-vazquez-changed-his-swing-sparked-offensive-turnaround/

Quote

“I think last year my swing was downhill,” he said, per the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams. “It was a lot of ground balls there and a lot of rollovers. Just bad habits.” So he decided it was time to take a deeper dive into the mechanics of his swing. And once he met up with Lorenzo Germania, who was recommended to Vazquez by an unidentified former Colorado Rockies outfielder, things started to click. “I focused on the angle, launch angle and all that stuff,” Vazquez said. “Why not? Everyone is doing it.”

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-vazquez-543877?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

his Launch Angle in 2018 was 12.6 and 12.9 in 2019.

he barrelled better, 1.9% in 2018 to 6.2% in 2019.

 

 
 
 
“I think last year my swing was downhill,” he said, per the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams. “It was a lot of ground balls there and a lot of rollovers. Just bad habits.” So he decided it was time to take a deeper dive into the mechanics of his swing. And once he met up with Lorenzo Germania, who was recommended to Vazquez by an unidentified former Colorado Rockies outfielder, things started to click. “I focused on the angle, launch angle and all that stuff,” Vazquez said. “Why not? Everyone is doing it.”

Read more at: https://nesn.com/2019/07/how-christian-vazquez-changed-his-swing-sparked-offensive-turnaro
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He definitely made some improvements that shows in the underlying numbers but he also did get lucky. Career high in HR/FB. BABIP up 68 points from 2018. Though this can be partially supported by his career high in hard contact and career low in soft contact, combined with increased walks. So its hard to tell what will be sustainable and what won't. His NFBC ADP is just inside 200 as the 9th catcher off the board.

This seems fair, the problem for me is that he falls in that tweener territory of not a top catcher to reach for but too high if you plan to punt the position. This might make him a nicer value in the end, but will likely not be included in many players' strategies. His upside isn't as good as many catchers going behind him (Narvaez, d"Arnaud, Tom Murphy, Sean Murphy I'd argue all have higher ceilings), however, he has a better floor than these guys. Vazquez should be slated for a ton of playing time with Kevin Plawecki as the team's top backup.

Overall, I like Vazquez a lot more in 2 catcher leagues where he can provide a nice floor for a cheap price and not be terrible, which is usually tough to find in these formats. In one catcher leagues, I'd be more likely to get a top guy or just punt and wait for one of the higher upside guys much later. However, this is probably popular among many players and thus his value will be drained which could make him a nice pick as a top 10 catcher around pick 200.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think he’s a great catcher to target later in the draft, sub 20 k%, one of the few catchers that probably won’t kill your average, maybe he hits 20+ HR again, if he busts it was a late enough pick that who cares, if he hits like last year you profit pretty nicely.

 

edit: re poster above, he had a .305 BABIP, not sure I’d call his season last year lucky. HR/FB Luck is on wall scraper HR which I don’t specifically recall — of course the HR/FB is going to massively change when he didn’t hit many HR before, again that doesn’t necessarily mean luck in a break out year w/ swing changes, playing time, etc.

Edited by fawkes_mulder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If he gets consistent AB’s sign me up. Especially if Betts leaves, they will need to add more to the lineup and focus less on the defensive/game calling side of things. I remember he went on a really nice stretch last year and I was surprised to see he hadn’t done much in his career, he looked very comfortable and gifted with the bat. I could definitely see a .270 25ish season out of him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Think he’s a great catcher to target later in the draft, sub 20 k%, one of the few catchers that probably won’t kill your average, maybe he hits 20+ HR again, if he busts it was a late enough pick that who cares, if he hits like last year you profit pretty nicely.

 

edit: re poster above, he had a .305 BABIP, not sure I’d call his season last year lucky. HR/FB Luck is on wall scraper HR which I don’t specifically recall — of course the HR/FB is going to massively change when he didn’t hit many HR before, again that doesn’t necessarily mean luck in a break out year w/ swing changes, playing time, etc.

 

With his profile .305 is better than normal. Its not outrageous but its certainly higher than I would expect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

 

With his profile .305 is better than normal. Its not outrageous but its certainly higher than I would expect.

It's about a 2% deviation from league average BABIP and his infield flyball percentage is 6.9% compared with league average 9.8%. These are guaranteed outs.

I don't understand why this .305 BABIP raising any red flags to you.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Think he’s a great catcher to target later in the draft, sub 20 k%, one of the few catchers that probably won’t kill your average, maybe he hits 20+ HR again, if he busts it was a late enough pick that who cares, if he hits like last year you profit pretty nicely.

 

edit: re poster above, he had a .305 BABIP, not sure I’d call his season last year lucky. HR/FB Luck is on wall scraper HR which I don’t specifically recall — of course the HR/FB is going to massively change when he didn’t hit many HR before, again that doesn’t necessarily mean luck in a break out year w/ swing changes, playing time, etc.

This, going to wait on C in redraft and hopefully pick him/or one of the Murphy's later in the draft

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this