K197040

Antonio Brown 2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, street sharks said:

It's quite easy to parse through this thread and see who was quick enough to scoop him and who wasn't lol

Yea thats most threads, can always tell who's butthurt 

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I got lev bell and Antonio brown on my bench... what a great time to be in 2017

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Brown is still on the wire in my league, and that is right where I will leave him.

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7 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Brown is still on the wire in my league, and that is right where I will leave him.

Let someone else grab him

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You have to remember, through the 1st 4 games of the season David Moore (3rd option in Seattle) was on pace for 720 yards and 8 TDs. David Moore.


The question isn't will AB produce if he is playing, the question is will he play.

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27 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

You have to remember, through the 1st 4 games of the season David Moore (3rd option in Seattle) was on pace for 720 yards and 8 TDs. David Moore.


The question isn't will AB produce if he is playing, the question is will he play.

 

This isn't a question. It's AB.

Edited by harck
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7 hours ago, harck said:

 

This isn't a question. It's AB.


he’s not gonna take snaps from Lockett or DK tho so what role does he take over? David Moore’s snaps in 3wr sets? They’re not going to recreate the playbook overnight to thrust AB into a featured role when they have Lockett and DK so I could see this becoming frustrating for AB fast.

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Putting a 1-2% claim on him and dropping Ebron. If it works, great. If not, also great. 

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10 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


he’s not gonna take snaps from Lockett or DK tho so what role does he take over? David Moore’s snaps in 3wr sets? They’re not going to recreate the playbook overnight to thrust AB into a featured role when they have Lockett and DK so I could see this becoming frustrating for AB fast.


and you know this... how?

Speculating that he won’t take snaps away from Lockett/Metcalf is essentially the same as speculating that he ends up posting WR1 numbers this season. Speculation is speculation no matter which side you’re on.

What’s not speculation is the fact that he was a free pickup to anybody that made the move yesterday. As has been repeatedly stated, there is little downside risk to rostering AB with quite a bit of potential.

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23 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


he’s not gonna take snaps from Lockett or DK tho so what role does he take over? David Moore’s snaps in 3wr sets? They’re not going to recreate the playbook overnight to thrust AB into a featured role when they have Lockett and DK so I could see this becoming frustrating for AB fast.

 

AB is the most talented out of the 3

 

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10 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Higgins would be the WR5 on a lot of teams. He was a nice pickup, don't get me wrong, but if I'm in that situation I want upside. 

But to your point, no, in general I'd prefer to drop someone not as good/productive as Higgins. 

If you have an inside track to the playoffs and good depth upside is the goal. 

Higgins is actually WR30 on the season in 0.5 PPR... And he wasn't really involved the first two games...

He's averaged 13.6 points the last 4 weeks. And he has further upside.

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I'm having a hard time believing he picks Seattle if a team like Green Bay comes knocking. In Green Bay he would be a featured target by arguably the best QB in the league and he would be playing opposite arguably a top 5 receiver. That would be his best situation to pad his stats into a good contract (should he not go to jail).

 

EDIT: Anyway, in Wednesday WW period was the last call to get in. While I'm surprised this is a thing, it sounds like he's more likely to play than be suspended again.

Edited by Spyplane

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

AB is the most talented out of the 3

 

Is he still? Even before he went AWOL he was in decline... His catch rate dropped significantly from his prime... 70.5, 68.8, 62.0, 61.9... His yards per target dropped a full 2 yards from 9 4 in 2017 to 7.7 in 2018... That was when he was 30 years old and everything was trending down... He's now 32 and hasn't played in over a year...

But again none of that matters if he can't get on the field and he has ongoing legal issues still unresolved, and NFL teams very easily could stay away until they are resolved.

I just stashed Allen Lazard this week. I'll take my chances there.

If AB manages to get on the field he can be helpful potentially depending when he's signed because he'll need time to acclimate to whatever offense.

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I think its reasonable to think he catches 60% of his targets. I also think its reasonable to think his yards/reception is 14.0. I also think its reasonable to think he catches a TD in every other game in 2020 with the way the top QBs are slinging it this season (you know he's not signing with anyone unless they have a really good QB and a opportunity for him). So, here's one conservative scenario for you:

 

Average PPR production: 8 targets, 4.8 catches, 67.2 yards, 0.5 TD

Points total:

  1. Catches: 4.8 pts/game
  2. Yards: 6.7 pts/game
  3. TDs: 3 pts/game
  4. Total: 14.5 pts/game
  5.  

That places him in the top 25 with upside not factored in. That's good for WR2 without hardly any investment cost.

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42 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Is he still? Even before he went AWOL he was in decline... His catch rate dropped significantly from his prime... 70.5, 68.8, 62.0, 61.9... His yards per target dropped a full 2 yards from 9 4 in 2017 to 7.7 in 2018... That was when he was 30 years old and everything was trending down... He's now 32 and hasn't played in over a year...

But again none of that matters if he can't get on the field and he has ongoing legal issues still unresolved, and NFL teams very easily could stay away until they are resolved.

I just stashed Allen Lazard this week. I'll take my chances there.

If AB manages to get on the field he can be helpful potentially depending when he's signed because he'll need time to acclimate to whatever offense.


yep-  you’re probably right.    A few fantasy foosball fallacies I see going around here: 

 1- Time Is A Flat ️.   AB and Julio battled for years and Julio is still elite therefore AB will be too.  Disregard his age,  and the fact he’s played about one half of football in 2 years.    Workout videos and stuff.  Russell Wilson and stuff.  
 

2- He’ll step right into regular volume because there’s so much interest in him.  He wouldn’t sign otherwise.    Apparently we never considered the possibility this is his clever agent using Schefter as a mouthpiece to drum up offers.   Nothing has precluded teams from signing him up to this point.  Hell, J Gordon was signed with no guarantees. Antonio’s been begging for another chance-  would have signed anywhere that would have him regardless of role or volume.   

3- He’s not really crazy anymore.  
 Uh huh.   Self absorbed diva, locker room cancer, and narcissists don’t just change.   They pretend for a while..then blow up one day.  Not really the kind of guy a contender brings on unless real desperate.  
 

Could the saints be that desperate?   Possibly.  

can’t see Seattle.    He’s third fiddle and they’ve already signed Josh Gordon.

miami would be crazy to do it.  They got a good thing going there and Tua just named starter.  Let him grow with players you trust on and off the field.  

NE maybe?    After suing them for back wages it’s a long shot. 
KC doesn’t need the distraction.  Payoff not worth the squeeze. 
 

Edited by Impreza178
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People bringing up the Saints are forgetting they worked him out last year and when they did not add him, he went flame-thrower on the organization and torched that bridge.

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1 hour ago, JDE said:


and you know this... how?

Speculating that he won’t take snaps away from Lockett/Metcalf is essentially the same as speculating that he ends up posting WR1 numbers this season. Speculation is speculation no matter which side you’re on.

What’s not speculation is the fact that he was a free pickup to anybody that made the move yesterday. As has been repeatedly stated, there is little downside risk to rostering AB with quite a bit of potential.

 

Yep, and the odds are very small for both.

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22 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Bruce worked with him in Pittsburg and has lots of friends in Pittsburg. Don't see it happening. Bruce has made it clear he's not Brady's yes man.

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Just now, Spyplane said:

Bruce worked with him in Pittsburg and has lots of friends in Pittsburg. Don't see it happening. Bruce has made it clear he's not Brady's yes man.


Anyone mention Arizona?  They’re pretty bold and need a wr 

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20 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


2- He’ll step right into regular volume because there’s so much interest in him.  He wouldn’t sign otherwise.    Apparently we never considered the possibility this is his clever agent using Schefter as a mouthpiece to drum up offers.   Nothing has precluded teams from signing him up to this point.  Hell, J Gordon was signed with no guarantees. Antonio’s been begging for another chance-  would have signed anywhere that would have him regardless of role or volume.   

 

 

Agree with your entire post but especially bolded part. I think that's most likely what this is. Seahawks are 5-0 and I have a hard time seeing how they would think AB's talent outweighs his risk at this point. If SEA was 3-2 and/or struggling a bit on offense I could understand it. But Wilson is playing like an MVP and they've scored >27 points in every game, averaging 34. 

For SEA, the upside is that he's still 90% of what he was and he gives Russ a 4th weapon in addition to Metcalf/Lockett/Carson.

The downside is he takes some time to gel, Wilson loses some efficiency he's shown, and of course that he just goes out of his mind again and becomes a giant distraction/PR nightmare with his rape case starting in Dec (from what I've read).

I still get adding him over the last scrub on your bench in fantasy. But if SEA adds him, I don't understand it.

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Just now, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Agree with your entire post but especially bolded part. I think that's most likely what this is. Seahawks are 5-0 and I have a hard time seeing how they would think AB's talent outweighs his risk at this point. If SEA was 3-2 and/or struggling a bit on offense I could understand it. But Wilson is playing like an MVP and they've scored >27 points in every game, averaging 34. 

For SEA, the upside is that he's still 90% of what he was and he gives Russ a 4th weapon in addition to Metcalf/Lockett/Carson.

The downside is he takes some time to gel, Wilson loses some efficiency he's shown, and of course that he just goes out of his mind again and becomes a giant distraction/PR nightmare with his rape case starting in Dec (from what I've read).

I still get adding him over the last scrub on your bench in fantasy. But if SEA adds him, I don't understand it.

 

Exactly.   The relevant debate here is how AB will perform and what kind of NFL opportunity he might get.   Not whether we, as fantasy degenerates,  should roster him over a bench scrub.  
 

good post 

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10 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Agree with your entire post but especially bolded part. I think that's most likely what this is. Seahawks are 5-0 and I have a hard time seeing how they would think AB's talent outweighs his risk at this point. If SEA was 3-2 and/or struggling a bit on offense I could understand it. But Wilson is playing like an MVP and they've scored >27 points in every game, averaging 34. 

For SEA, the upside is that he's still 90% of what he was and he gives Russ a 4th weapon in addition to Metcalf/Lockett/Carson.

The downside is he takes some time to gel, Wilson loses some efficiency he's shown, and of course that he just goes out of his mind again and becomes a giant distraction/PR nightmare with his rape case starting in Dec (from what I've read).

I still get adding him over the last scrub on your bench in fantasy. But if SEA adds him, I don't understand it.

 

I don't understand how many of you keep trying to dismiss this as simply AB's agent passing rumors to Schefter to drum up interest. The point you all keep making is that there is no way you can see Seattle making the move...

Yet Pete Carroll, just yesterday when asked about the report, quite directly stated "we're there, we're in it". It would've been so easy to give a generic coaches speak response downplaying the report, but he did the exact opposite.

Do hype trains like this often go overboard on these forums? Of course, that's the fun in it. But equally overboard are the posters who come in here boasting the complete opposite. Despite plenty of evidence to the contrary.

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