K197040

Antonio Brown 2020 Outlook

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No question Brady does want Brown active and playing.  But it will be up to the NFL and the Bucs CS, not Brady, to decide how to deal with Antonio's next meltdown.

Edited by SharkSwimmer

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And I think Brady probably feels the same way, except he lets Antonio Brown live at his house.

If it were up to Brady, Brown never would have been cut from the Patriots and both would probably be playing for New England to this very day.

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6 hours ago, Rotocious said:

 

I'm going to say there's a basically 0% chance that AB is a top 5 WR ROS let alone the best WR.

 

He will likely end as the 3rd best WR on his own team.

 

Do you have anything to support this or are you just making a prediction?  (which is fine, this is just a forum)

There is a wide wide range of possibilities here, but I don't see how him being a top 5 WR is out of the realm of possibility.

Antonio Brown, based on past performance, IS THE BEST WR ON TAMPA NOW.  He is better than Evans.  He is better than Godwin.  Again, based on what we have seen the last time he played NFL football (2018 and the 1 game in 2019)

The risks here are many - 1.) His skills have declined due to age, 2.) He goes batsh*t crazy, 3.) He is rusty, etc.

But if none of these come to fruition....if he toes the line bc he wants to rehab his image and Tom Brady gets him under control....if he still has all the skill he has displayed over his career....then absolutely he can be phenomenal on this team.

Evans and Godwin obviously have egos, but they have a short window to win a Superbowl.  If AB is the best WR on the team, he will get targets.  Lots of them.

So, if you're valuing him, you're really just making a judgment call on whether these risks will happen.  Could he go nuts and get kicked off the team?  Of course.  Has he lost anything?  According to Arians, he looks "fantastic", but who knows.  Maybe.

But....if he is the AB that we have all seen and he keeps his head down and plays hard, it is definitely definitely possible for him to be top 5 WR ROS.  The reasons you rule out a WR from that ceiling are things like the QB....the offensive philosophy...and most of all, talent.  NONE of these are a barrier for AB.

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20 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And I think Brady probably feels the same way, except he lets Antonio Brown live at his house.

If it were up to Brady, Brown never would have been cut from the Patriots and both would probably be playing for New England to this very day.

not sure about this.  have a feeling brady is feeling pretty good about how things worked out right now and would love to win a ring outside of the shadow cast by hoodie. i do think brady feels brown could be the missing piece to make this happen....

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7 hours ago, kp96 said:

 

Do you have anything to support this or are you just making a prediction?  (which is fine, this is just a forum)

There is a wide wide range of possibilities here, but I don't see how him being a top 5 WR is out of the realm of possibility.

Antonio Brown, based on past performance, IS THE BEST WR ON TAMPA NOW.  He is better than Evans.  He is better than Godwin.  Again, based on what we have seen the last time he played NFL football (2018 and the 1 game in 2019)

The risks here are many - 1.) His skills have declined due to age, 2.) He goes batsh*t crazy, 3.) He is rusty, etc.

But if none of these come to fruition....if he toes the line bc he wants to rehab his image and Tom Brady gets him under control....if he still has all the skill he has displayed over his career....then absolutely he can be phenomenal on this team.

Evans and Godwin obviously have egos, but they have a short window to win a Superbowl.  If AB is the best WR on the team, he will get targets.  Lots of them.

So, if you're valuing him, you're really just making a judgment call on whether these risks will happen.  Could he go nuts and get kicked off the team?  Of course.  Has he lost anything?  According to Arians, he looks "fantastic", but who knows.  Maybe.

But....if he is the AB that we have all seen and he keeps his head down and plays hard, it is definitely definitely possible for him to be top 5 WR ROS.  The reasons you rule out a WR from that ceiling are things like the QB....the offensive philosophy...and most of all, talent.  NONE of these are a barrier for AB.

 

The barriers are.  He's 32.  He's played 1 game in the last 2 seasons. Even his last full season which was in an offense he was in for years showed a decline from being the best WR.

 

Too many mouths to feed.  He will be lucky to average enough points a game to be a top 12 WR.  There's too many good receivers in the league.  I'll take my chances on those guys over the 32 year old joining a team loaded with receivers mid season.

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9 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Stiffs his new female personal trainer in a different way

 😂 😂 😂

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11 hours ago, AnchorDown said:


Ray Lewis murdered a guy, then proceeded to win a Super Bowl en route to a HOF selection.

Van Gogh cut his own damn ear off with a razor blade and painted Starry Night. Ever heard of it?

When you are a highest level of your artistry, genius and insanity are sometimes intertwined. And that’s okay, because I don’t plan on my daughter dating AB or inviting him to my son’s bar mitzfah. He isn’t coming to any family barbecues. All I really need him to do is catch footballs, and despite everything else he is very, very good at that particular thing.

Owners of AB have zero invested in him minus a roster slot that would otherwise go to some scrub that won’t do anything this season in the first place. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain. And if he has another crazy moment on the sidelines, or exposes himself to the coaching staff, whatever—that’s for the Bucs to deal with. No skin off my nose.

But if he’s in their lineup, he’s in my lineup. Period.

 

 

 

You're on fire in this thread. Definitely starting with confidence next week (well with bye weeks and all lol.) I don't see how you can't start him when Godwin is most likely out or they should at least keep him out.

Their receiving core is banged up and keeps getting banged up. They all fell apart at the end of last year (probably because Winston threw so many times and far down the field to these guys.)

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AB knows he’s on his last chance. He acted up at the Raiders cause he wanted to get out. He’s a manipulative SOB.

 

I have no doubt that he’s competitive enough to keep his nose clean at the Bucs. The chance to win a SB with Brady will be enough to keep his crazy in check.

 

Obviously there’s a wide range of outcomes here, but if he plays all the remaining games this season, I can’t see any possible way he doesn’t end up as a WR1.

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1 hour ago, The Cam's Pyjamas said:

AB knows he’s on his last chance. He acted up at the Raiders cause he wanted to get out. He’s a manipulative SOB.

 

I have no doubt that he’s competitive enough to keep his nose clean at the Bucs. The chance to win a SB with Brady will be enough to keep his crazy in check.

 

Obviously there’s a wide range of outcomes here, but if he plays all the remaining games this season, I can’t see any possible way he doesn’t end up as a WR1.

If all three of their wide receivers are healthy, AB will have inconsistent weeks. For proof look at Evans splits with and without Godwin. Also Tampa's defense is pretty good, they don't have to score many points.

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10 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

If all three of their wide receivers are healthy, AB will have inconsistent weeks. For proof look at Evans splits with and without Godwin. Also Tampa's defense is pretty good, they don't have to score many points.


You can have inconsistent weeks and still finish as a top 5 WR overall. 
 

You mention Evans, last year he was a top 5 WR before injury, along with Godwin. Sure this year with TB12 is a different story, but the point is that it’s possible for the offense to produce multiple WRs that finish top 5 in PPG, all while having some of the WRs having inconsistent weeks. The blowup weeks make up for it.

 

Regarding the TB defense limiting their offense in terms of scoring, I’m not sure TB12 cares. The guy threw for 5 TDs against the Raiders when he clearly didn’t need to. He want Brown there, Brown’s contract is incentive heavy... I imagine the target share will be heavy in Brown’s favor. This is especially true if Godwin and/or Evans are out, which is pretty much a lock to me. Heck, I’d be willing to bet Godwin misses Week 9.

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2 minutes ago, rasrar said:


You can have inconsistent weeks and still finish as a top 5 WR overall. 
 

You mention Evans, last year he was a top 5 WR before injury, along with Godwin. Sure this year with TB12 is a different story, but the point is that it’s possible for the offense to produce multiple WRs that finish top 5 in PPG, all while having some of the WRs having inconsistent weeks. The blowup weeks make up for it.

 

Regarding the TB defense limiting their offense in terms of scoring, I’m not sure TB12 cares. The guy threw for 5 TDs against the Raiders when he clearly didn’t need to. He want Brown there, Brown’s contract is incentive heavy... I imagine the target share will be heavy in Brown’s favor. This is especially true if Godwin and/or Evans are out, which is pretty much a lock to me. Heck, I’d be willing to bet Godwin misses Week 9.

True but that was only with Godwin, adding another WR1 to the equation is a different story, hoping it pans out but we'll see. Either way they did make the move because their receivers are not healthy, so we'll see.

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6 hours ago, Rotocious said:

Too many mouths to feed.  He will be lucky to average enough points a game to be a top 12 WR.  There's too many good receivers in the league.  I'll take my chances on those guys over the 32 year old joining a team loaded with receivers mid season.

Name some guys that you have acquired in the last two weeks FOR FREE off the waiver wire that you would rather have over AB.  If you're in 8 or 10 team leagues, it doesn't count. In deeper leagues... Nelson Agholor?  Rashard Higgins?  Jalen Reagor?  Corey Davis?  Denzel Mims?  These guys aren't taking you to the 'ship.

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9 hours ago, CooL said:

Name some guys that you have acquired in the last two weeks FOR FREE off the waiver wire that you would rather have over AB.  If you're in 8 or 10 team leagues, it doesn't count. In deeper leagues... Nelson Agholor?  Rashard Higgins?  Jalen Reagor?  Corey Davis?  Denzel Mims?  These guys aren't taking you to the 'ship.

 

Well let's see.  For one AB has been stashed for over a month in both my 10 and 12 team league. Originally drafted late in both then I believe dropped and acquired via waiver in both.

 

But yeah I'll take Nelson Agholor & Corey Davis over AB.

 

WRs picked up after AB was stashed:

Rashard & Tee Higgins, Travis Fulgham, Tim Patrick, Cole Beasley, Chase Claypool been rostered awhile was still picked up after AB in both my leagues.

 

Every name on this list should be comparable to AB.  But I'm glad to see you moved the goal posts of the argument of "AB is a top 5 WR ROS!" to "what free agent pick ups will out produce him?"

 

How does comparing him to week 4 - 8 pick ups mean hes going to be a top 5 WR ROS?

 

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4 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

 

Well let's see.  For one AB has been stashed for over a month in both my 10 and 12 team league. Originally drafted late in both then I believe dropped and acquired via waiver in both.

 

But yeah I'll take Nelson Agholor & Corey Davis over AB.

 

WRs picked up after AB was stashed:

Rashard & Tee Higgins, Travis Fulgham, Tim Patrick, Cole Beasley, Chase Claypool been rostered awhile was still picked up after AB in both my leagues.

 

Every name on this list should be comparable to AB.  But I'm glad to see you moved the goal posts of the argument of "AB is a top 5 WR ROS!" to "what free agent pick ups will out produce him?"

 

How does comparing him to week 4 - 8 pick ups mean hes going to be a top 5 WR ROS?

 

How have I moved the goal posts?  This top 5 WR ROS wasn't my argument.  I think he's clearly a WR2 PPR easily.

As I said, 10 team leagues need not apply.  In 12 and 14 teamers, that's where it's hard to find waiver wire talent.  If you're saying that Tee Higgins, Fulgham, and Claypool were only just recently picked up, that's nuts. These guys were the top 3 WR waiver adds a month ago.  Any competitive league, they would all have been gone.   And just why were people stashing AB over four weeks ago, let alone in a 10 team league?  Schefty broke the news on October 21 that the Seahawks were interested.  So who in your league was picked up after October 21, which is probably the date we should be looking at?  Tim Patrick was already gone in my league.  Maybe Cole Beasley.  But he's ….. Cole Beasley.  I get that he's been annoyingly productive lately in a PPR way.  But seriously, you're going to roster COLE BEASLEY (who incidentally is 31 years old, which is just one year short of 32...) over AB?!  You can't be serious.  And in what league do you play in that values Rashard Higgins the same as AB?

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10 hours ago, DezedandConfused said:

If all three of their wide receivers are healthy, AB will have inconsistent weeks. For proof look at Evans splits with and without Godwin. Also Tampa's defense is pretty good, they don't have to score many points.

 

You mention Evans here, but that's kind of a cherry pick because you leave out Godwin. Evans has been inconsistent, Godwin has been fairly consistent. We have no idea where AB will land. He COULD be an Evans and see some weeks with 7-8 targets and others with 2-3. Or he could be more of a safety blanket like Godwin and see a stable 7-8 every game. We'll have to wait and see.

As for the guy a couple posts above... Agholor and Corey Davis[...]? I get the concerns over character and the risk of AB not finishing the season. But you have to be completely delusional bordering on manic to make a statement like that. AB was the #1 overall WR 4 goddamn years in a row. He's just 2 years out from that. In his 1 game he played last year, he showed absolutely no signs that he lost a step.

Edited by tonycpsu

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3 minutes ago, CooL said:

How have I moved the goal posts?  This top 5 WR ROS wasn't my argument.  I think he's clearly a WR2 PPR easily.

As I said, 10 team leagues need not apply.  In 12 and 14 teamers, that's where it's hard to find waiver wire talent.  If you're saying that Tee Higgins, Fulgham, and Claypool were only just recently picked up, that's nuts. These guys were the top 3 WR waiver adds a month ago.  Any competitive league, they would all have been gone.   And just why were people stashing AB over four weeks ago, let alone in a 10 team league?  Schefty broke the news on October 21 that the Seahawks were interested.  So who in your league was picked up after October 21, which is probably the date we should be looking at?  Tim Patrick was already gone in my league.  Maybe Cole Beasley.  But he's ….. Cole Beasley.  I get that he's been annoyingly productive lately in a PPR way.  But seriously, you're going to roster COLE BEASLEY (who incidentally is 31 years old, which is just one year short of 32...) over AB?!  You can't be serious.  And in what league do you play in that values Rashard Higgins the same as AB?

 

Okay so if we are talking soley based on AB vs recent pickups instead of stashing him then we have a reasonable discussion.  But when you quote me saying theres 0% chance hes a top 5 WR ROS which was in response to someone saying hell be the best WR ROS.  That's where it seems as if you're moving the goal post.  But we are in agreement AB won't be a top 5 WR ROS.

 

So the discussion is to where will his value end up ROS comparatively to other WRs acquired off the wire around the same time.

 

No AB has been stashed in both my leagues well before October 21st.  

 

Claypool broke out October 11th... so naturally he wasn't rostered in most leagues (or even many at all) before that.  

 

Yeah in full point PPR I think Cole Beasley will outscore AB for the ROS.  Yes hes only 1 year younger but he hasn't just taken a year and a half off, had off the field issues, and joined an entirely new system less than a week ago.  Tomlin saw the writting on the wall with AB.

 

I'm not saying AB won't be worth a weekly flex or some weeks WR2.  But I dont think hes going to get the 7+ targets a game Beasley has been seeing.

 

Again don't conflate the common sense argument of these WRs can produce similarly to AB with someone will give you more trade value for them.  Again, that was never my argument.

 

But I really do think all of the options I've listed have a realistic chance at producing the same as AB ROS.  Those options didn't have to be stashed either.

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10 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

 

an entirely new system less than a week ago.  Tomlin saw the writting on the wall with AB.

 

Arians coached him with his system in Pittsburgh and AB played a game with Brady already. Why are you talking about it as if AB is coming in to this this "entirely" new system? Is the misinformation here designed for you to strengthen your take? Otherwise, I put out the clearly incorrect information?

Last he was on the field he was the best WR in the game. He's supposedly in great shape so I can't wrap my head around how some here are trying to pretend that he's not going to be any good.

 

If he's on the field, he's going to produce. He fits what Brady looks for in a WR more than a Mike Evans anyway. The question here is how long will be be on the field, because as long as he's out there, he will eat.

This NONSENSE about Cole Beasley being more valuable than an Antonio Brown that's on the field is absolutely hilarious.

 

Back in 2009 when Tom Brady came back after missing a (16) weeks, should he have been left to the waiver wire with no expectations either? I mean he was 31 coming off a serious injury, right?

 

AB missed (24) weeks with no injury and is 32. Last he played, he was the best WR on the planet. The fact that he is 32 is not much of an obstacle despite what some of you here claim.

 

AB will be fine IF he's on the field.

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10 hours ago, rasrar said:


You can have inconsistent weeks and still finish as a top 5 WR overall. 
 

You mention Evans, last year he was a top 5 WR before injury, along with Godwin. Sure this year with TB12 is a different story, but the point is that it’s possible for the offense to produce multiple WRs that finish top 5 in PPG, all while having some of the WRs having inconsistent weeks. The blowup weeks make up for it.

 

Regarding the TB defense limiting their offense in terms of scoring, I’m not sure TB12 cares. The guy threw for 5 TDs against the Raiders when he clearly didn’t need to. He want Brown there, Brown’s contract is incentive heavy... I imagine the target share will be heavy in Brown’s favor. This is especially true if Godwin and/or Evans are out, which is pretty much a lock to me. Heck, I’d be willing to bet Godwin misses Week 9.

That was with a QB that threw for over 5,100 yards!  He threw for over 5,100 yards because he led the world in INTs, and more importantly pick 6's.  Not going to be the case this season, which is what matters. 

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1 minute ago, abrunn11 said:

That was with a QB that threw for over 5,100 yards!  He threw for over 5,100 yards because he led the world in INTs, and more importantly pick 6's.  Not going to be the case this season, which is what matters. 

 

Well Brady is on pace for 4400 yards and 41 TDs... so it's whatever really 

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On 10/29/2020 at 12:17 PM, AnchorDown said:


Ray Lewis murdered a guy, then proceeded to win a Super Bowl en route to a HOF selection.

Van Gogh cut his own damn ear off with a razor blade and painted Starry Night. Ever heard of it?

When you are a highest level of your artistry, genius and insanity are sometimes intertwined. And that’s okay, because I don’t plan on my daughter dating AB or inviting him to my son’s bar mitzfah. He isn’t coming to any family barbecues. All I really need him to do is catch footballs, and despite everything else he is very, very good at that particular thing.

Owners of AB have zero invested in him minus a roster slot that would otherwise go to some scrub that won’t do anything this season in the first place. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain. And if he has another crazy moment on the sidelines, or exposes himself to the coaching staff, whatever—that’s for the Bucs to deal with. No skin off my nose.

But if he’s in their lineup, he’s in my lineup. Period.

 

 

 

I always thought it was spelled

bar-mitsvah?

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On 10/29/2020 at 12:17 PM, AnchorDown said:


Ray Lewis murdered a guy, then proceeded to win a Super Bowl en route to a HOF selection.

Van Gogh cut his own damn ear off with a razor blade and painted Starry Night. Ever heard of it?

When you are a highest level of your artistry, genius and insanity are sometimes intertwined. And that’s okay, because I don’t plan on my daughter dating AB or inviting him to my son’s bar mitzfah. He isn’t coming to any family barbecues. All I really need him to do is catch footballs, and despite everything else he is very, very good at that particular thing.

Owners of AB have zero invested in him minus a roster slot that would otherwise go to some scrub that won’t do anything this season in the first place. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain. And if he has another crazy moment on the sidelines, or exposes himself to the coaching staff, whatever—that’s for the Bucs to deal with. No skin off my nose.

But if he’s in their lineup, he’s in my lineup. Period.

 

 

Ray Lewis murdered a guy because he is an a**hole and a hypocrite and a psychopath. Van Gogh cut his ear off because he went off his meds. The idea that "genius and insanity are intertwined" has been disproven numerous times. It's a bullshit trope that has been used to excuse a lot of deplorable activity for centuries and the sooner it goes away the better for all of us. Assholes are assholes. The ones who are better at some things get away with being bigger assholes than the ones who aren't as good at those things. 

AB is going to catch 3 of 7 targets and he and Brady will barely miss on a single long ball. None of this will be resolved this week. 

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16 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Arians coached him with his system in Pittsburgh and AB played a game with Brady already. Why are you talking about it as if AB is coming in to this this "entirely" new system? Is the misinformation here designed for you to strengthen your take? Otherwise, I put out the clearly incorrect information?

Last he was on the field he was the best WR in the game. He's supposedly in great shape so I can't wrap my head around how some here are trying to pretend that he's not going to be any good.

 

If he's on the field, he's going to produce. He fits what Brady looks for in a WR more than a Mike Evans anyway. The question here is how long will be be on the field, because as long as he's out there, he will eat.

This NONSENSE about Cole Beasley being more valuable than an Antonio Brown that's on the field is absolutely hilarious.

 

Back in 2009 when Tom Brady came back after missing a (16) weeks, should he have been left to the waiver wire with no expectations either? I mean he was 31 coming off a serious injury, right?

 

AB missed (24) weeks with no injury and is 32. Last he played, he was the best WR on the planet. The fact that he is 32 is not much of an obstacle despite what some of you here claim.

 

AB will be fine IF he's on the field.

 

Look no need to be so combative.  I'm sorry I make strong arguments that hurt your fantasy wants.  But hey no need to take it personal.  Never did I say he's "not going to any good". So please read where I said he'll be a flex option most weeks and some a WR2.

 

So he does have experience with Arians.  But remember Arians for months said there is no way they were looking at signing AB.

 

Okay so it's not an "entirely" new system?  But we all can undoubtedly agree that it is in fact a new system.  Keying on semantics won't help your argument.

 

So instead of attacking me personally by assigning fictional invented motives why don't you sack up and make an actual prediction.

 

So you must think AB ends as the top WR which is where my entire argument came in.  If that's the case just come out and say it.  Otherwise where do you realistically think he'll end up ROS? Because you talk like you haven't a single doubt of him picking up right where he left off which would be the #1WR.... and I personally think that statement (made by others inferred by your above post) is ludicrous.  I don't even think it's reasonable to project AB to be a top 12 WR ROS.

 

Is it realistic to assume he could be a top 25 WR ROS?  Yeah that is reasonable for me.  But its pretty reasonable Cole Beasley is in that range as well in PPR.

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5 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

 

Look no need to be so combative.  I'm sorry I make strong arguments that hurt your fantasy wants.  But hey no need to take it personal.  Never did I say he's "not going to any good". So please read where I said he'll be a flex option most weeks and some a WR2.

 

So he does have experience with Arians.  But remember Arians for months said there is no way they were looking at signing AB.

 

Okay so it's not an "entirely" new system?  But we all can undoubtedly agree that it is in fact a new system.  Keying on semantics won't help your argument.

 

So instead of attacking me personally by assigning fictional invented motives why don't you sack up and make an actual prediction.

 

So you must think AB ends as the top WR which is where my entire argument came in.  If that's the case just come out and say it.  Otherwise where do you realistically think he'll end up ROS? Because you talk like you haven't a single doubt of him picking up right where he left off which would be the #1WR.... and I personally think that statement (made by others inferred by your above post) is ludicrous.  I don't even think it's reasonable to project AB to be a top 12 WR ROS.

 

Is it realistic to assume he could be a top 25 WR ROS?  Yeah that is reasonable for me.  But its pretty reasonable Cole Beasley is in that range as well in PPR.

 

Not combative and didn't take anything personal. Just that some takes in here are quite head scratching so sometimes correcting of misinformation is needed.

The first bolded part...moving the goalposts I see. First you said AB is learning an ENTIRELY new system. That was corrected and now you've morphed that comment into "Arians first said he wasn't interested in AB." Ok?

Yes, Arians wasn't interested at the time when his team was healthy. Now that his WRs are quite banged up, things change as they often do. Not complicated.

The second bolded part...huh? Where did I personally attack you? Perhaps YOU should sack up and not take a correction of misinformation so personally. Just a thought.

I never said AB will be the top WR so do not put words in my mouth. I just think that the reasons you, among others tried to give for him not being worth much make no sense.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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