brockpapersizer

Kyle Tucker 2020 Outlook

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2018 Late Round Sleeper- Wrong

2019 Mid-Late Round Sleeper- Wrong

2020 Mid-Late Round Sleeper- ???

 

Kyle Tucker fell out of Rookie Eligibility by ONE AB last year. Honestly if I was the Astros I would have sat him out that last weekend just so he would stay on lists since the games didn't matter. In a recent BA chat someone asked 

 

Adam (Boston):

  • Where would Kyle Tucker slot in if he was eligible?


Kyle Glaser: In the 6-10 range.

 

He has certainly disappointed from a redrafted vantage point for 2 consecutive years, but he could breakout this year. Reddick was terrible last year, they didn't sign any decent outfielders. Brantley and Springer could easily get hurt, heck I wouldn't be surprised if an infield injury shifts things around for him to play. ATC has him projected 19-17 with a 254 average and 110 WRC+ in just 425 PAs.  Certainly 2020 potential, and a guy you can get for some steals late who shouldn't hurt you too bad elsewhere and still has the potential to break out in a big way. Could be looking at a 30-25 guy in a good lineup.

 

If the bidding or draft spot is too high, I can see passing, but he might have burned enough bridges by now in the fantasy community that he could be a value.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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35 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

He has certainly disappointed from a redrafted vantage point for 2 consecutive years, but he could breakout this year. Reddick was terrible last year, they didn't sign any decent outfielders. Brantley and Springer could easily get hurt, heck I wouldn't be surprised if an infield injury shifts things around for him to play. ATC has him projected 19-17 with a 254 average and 110 WRC+ in just 425 PAs.  Certainly 2020 potential, and a guy you can get for some steals late who shouldn't hurt you too bad elsewhere and still has the potential to break out in a big way. Could be looking at a 30-25 guy in a good lineup.

 

If the bidding or draft spot is too high, I can see passing, but he might have burned enough bridges by now in the fantasy community that he could be a value.

 

There will be no regular playing time again in 2020 for Kyle Tucker early on and that will not change unless there is an injury.  Consistent playing time is the only thing preventing him from becoming a nice fantasy asset.   He remains a risky pick this year.

Now if you believe the Astros are going to be thrown at frequently in light of the cheating scandal.......

 

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Playing time could be an issue.  Still believe the umps won't give the Astros any calls at the plate.  

I am staying away from every Astro player.

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Josh Reddick knew what pitches were coming and he was still total ****. Talent will win out quickly in this one. 

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4 hours ago, B&F said:

Playing time could be an issue.  Still believe the umps won't give the Astros any calls at the plate.  

I am staying away from every Astro player.

 

The umpires are going to care about them stealing signs? I'd be way more worried about my job if I was them.

Edited by buccsfan22
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5 hours ago, B&F said:

Playing time could be an issue.  Still believe the umps won't give the Astros any calls at the plate.  

I am staying away from every Astro player.

Fade could be the right call as will probably be talked about on a lot of podcasts and in these threads. I see really nothing that makes me want to fade honestly. I'm pricing all Astros as normally, and if people are fading and I get perceived value I'll take it. Some of these guys were great on the road, Bregman was better than at home. I also don't see why the umpires care.  If anything, in a world where umpires are being replaced by computers soon, I'm not sure making bad calls on purpose is within their interest. 

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On 1/25/2020 at 9:35 PM, brockpapersizer said:

Fade could be the right call as will probably be talked about on a lot of podcasts and in these threads. I see really nothing that makes me want to fade honestly. I'm pricing all Astros as normally, and if people are fading and I get perceived value I'll take it. Some of these guys were great on the road, Bregman was better than at home. I also don't see why the umpires care.  If anything, in a world where umpires are being replaced by computers soon, I'm not sure making bad calls on purpose is within their interest. 

I doubt he's suggesting the umps will make bad calls on purpose to spite the Astros, but I can see a lot of borderline calls going against them. 

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1 hour ago, smeeze said:

I doubt he's suggesting the umps will make bad calls on purpose to spite the Astros, but I can see a lot of borderline calls going against them. 

 

Never been an ump. I don't know.  The borderline calls in person are often not borderline calls in reality, if the Astros get a disturbing trend of not getting calls when they should, it's only going to help critics of umpires. Seems like its eventually going to happen anyway (not trying to start a debate), but it seems against the self interest of umpires to make additional bad calls.

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I too doubt there will be a bunch of bad calls.  But IF there are some bad calls I doubt a youngster like Tucker would bare the brunt.  Bregman and Altuve are the ones that should be worried.

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3 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I too doubt there will be a bunch of bad calls.  But IF there are some bad calls I doubt a youngster like Tucker would bare the brunt.  Bregman and Altuve are the ones that should be worried.

I think Tucker could be a bargain.  Springer is usually good for a DL trip or 2. Reddick and Brantley usually miss 15-20 games a piece.  Gurriel is getting up there in age. I can see a few ways Tucker gets playing time.  

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Marisnick had 318 PAs in a year both Reddick and Brantley played 140 games. I don't think Reddick is getting 140 in again. IMO

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Reddick sucks and has no value long-term because this is his last year under contract. Why wouldn't they just use him as a 4th OF and start Tucker? 

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56 minutes ago, dod959 said:

Reddick sucks and has no value long-term because this is his last year under contract. Why wouldn't they just use him as a 4th OF and start Tucker? 

 

They will play whoever is better because they are competing , and I think that will be Tucker. 

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49 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

They will play whoever is better because they are competing , and I think that will be Tucker. 

I don’t like drafting guys without defined roles in redrafts (see Garrett Hampson), but I agree. Tucker is clearly the better player and with only one year left on Reddick’s deal, there’s no reason to trot him out there over the much more talented player. I think Tucker wins the job out of spring training and doesn’t look back.

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42 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I don’t like drafting guys without defined roles in redrafts (see Garrett Hampson), but I agree. Tucker is clearly the better player and with only one year left on Reddick’s deal, there’s no reason to trot him out there over the much more talented player. I think Tucker wins the job out of spring training and doesn’t look back.


Depends on how deep the league is. Drafting Conforto at a discount and stashing him for a while a few year ago was big for me in a few leagues , think it could be similar with Tucker. Not defined roles aren’t ideal but they provide value because those guys are discounted.

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Dusty Baker hired by the Astros. My optimism for Tucker starting over Reddick just got flushed down the drain.

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25 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Dusty Baker hired by the Astros. My optimism for Tucker starting over Reddick just got flushed down the drain.

lol I get where you are coming from especially after the Trea Turner garbage.  Hopefully Reddick can't hit anything to start.

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Ideal scenario: Let someone else draft him, wait for them to drop him, then scoop up for the 2nd half.

 

 

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45 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Ideal scenario: Let someone else draft him, wait for them to drop him, then scoop up for the 2nd half.

 

 

 

Honestly true. Same with maybe Garrett Hampson, Nate Lowe and some others. Depends on league size. The shallower the league the more viable this strategy is.

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Zips is extremely high on him. Look at his projection:

 

.265 AVG / .329 OBP / 26 HR / 92 R / 95 RBI / 27 SB

 

Most other projection systems are much more conservative with the SB.

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14 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

say he wins the job in ST. top 75 adp?

 

Probably around there. What are the chances he actually wins the job, though. I would think the Dusty hire hurts his chances greatly.

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16 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Probably around there. What are the chances he actually wins the job, though. I would think the Dusty hire hurts his chances greatly.

im with the thinking that talent wins out and hopefully 33 year old redick doesnt get the chance to put up a 3rd straight 720 ops, 550 ab season.

tucker really fell in my draft and i understand not spending top 100ish pick on him but that 5 cat upside hitting in stacked lineup is very appealing and hitting on a $25+ player after rd 15 is league winning.

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1 minute ago, colepenhagen said:

im with the thinking that talent wins out and hopefully 33 year old redick doesnt get the chance to put up a 3rd straight 720 ops, 550 ab season.

tucker really fell in my draft and i understand not spending top 100ish pick on him but that 5 cat upside hitting in stacked lineup is very appealing and hitting on a $25+ player after rd 15 is league winning.

 

I agree he's well worth where he's going, just don't think he will win the job outright. More likely probably spells Brantley and Reddick pretty often but any injury to them or Springer or Alvarez would guarantee full time ABs. He's definitely someone I'm targeting in leagues with deep benches.

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