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The Big Bat Theory

Mookie Betts 2020 Outlook

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On 1/31/2020 at 8:57 AM, MSkibisky said:

and Dee Gordon stole 60 bases at 29 years old. I mean.. if we are just going to take a single sample and apply it to the theme..

Wait, are you comparing Betts base stealing ability to that of Dee Gordon? LOL, they are not even in the same stratosphere as base stealers

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9 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

gut says take lindor over mookie this year

 

trevor story as well

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3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

not possible. you could take 5 great players and stack a team and still not do jack. see yankees, lad.


If clinching your division...winning a 100 games...and getting knocked out by a bunch of cheaters is “jack”....sign me up, slim.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yeah let us try and destroy baseball in the process since the NBA is a total joke right now and no longer a true team sport. 

But fortunately no baseball team could afford BOTH contracts on the same team. 

And colepenhagen is right in that 2 super stars hitters do not a winning team make.  Without pitching -- and a team signing both Mookie and Lindor to 10 year  contracts could never afford a decent starter for that decade -- they won't even make the playoffs.  Even with one mega-contract and one under less money early on that guarantees nothing.  How many rings did the Trout and Pujols duo in Anaheim garner?

Fortunately baseball is still a team sport and just a couple of players can't get together and ride into a town and dictate a season to the whole league.  Baseball is a better sport than that.  It takes a whole team to win it all.


Just a year ago teams were trying to pair Manny+Harper. Philly vocally said they were gonna go after Trout this off season(before his mega deal). Comparing Trout/Pujols to Mookie/Lindor is lazy. You normally have better insight on these forums. Of course 2 hitters do not a winning team make. Sign stealing, PED’s, and luck is all you need.

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5 hours ago, bluntbros said:

Just a year ago teams were trying to pair Manny+Harper. Philly vocally said they were gonna go after Trout this off season(before his mega deal). Comparing Trout/Pujols to Mookie/Lindor is lazy. You normally have better insight on these forums. Of course 2 hitters do not a winning team make. Sign stealing, PED’s, and luck is all you need.

Philly wanted Trout.  They had to settle for Harper.  They also were way UNDER the luxury tax cap at the time.  And no, teams were not going after BOTH those players.  Not even the Phillies and their "mad money" they could use, again, UNDER the cap.  And why is the comparison lazy.  At the time Pujols was considered the greatest player of his generation still and Trout was the young superstar on the rise.  If anything they were the bigger dynamic duo on the time than the fantasy one of Lindor and Betts.  But the point is you mortgage your team to two super stars mega-year, mega-millions contracts you rob your team of any ability to get better players on the rest of the roster and you sentence your team to never winning it all let alone even making it to the playoffs.

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8 hours ago, cs3 said:

Wait, are you comparing Betts base stealing ability to that of Dee Gordon? LOL, they are not even in the same stratosphere as base stealers

Not in the least. Was just making a specific statistical comparison. I'm well aware they are completely different players.

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9 hours ago, bluntbros said:


Just a year ago teams were trying to pair Manny+Harper. Philly vocally said they were gonna go after Trout this off season(before his mega deal). Comparing Trout/Pujols to Mookie/Lindor is lazy. You normally have better insight on these forums. Of course 2 hitters do not a winning team make. Sign stealing, PED’s, and luck is all you need.

Boomerist Boomer Theory wants the Sox to trade Betts instead of competing this year, when they have a roster that at least gives them a chance to make the playoffs as is. Rooting for owners' pocketbooks over quality baseball is hardly good insight. He's probably a bit overrated, fantasy-wise, but we won't see anyone as good as Betts in the Sox' outfield in the next 20 years, minimum.

NBA is as high of a skill game at this point as it's ever been, additionally.

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3 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Boomerist Boomer Theory wants the Sox to trade Betts instead of competing this year, when they have a roster that at least gives them a chance to make the playoffs as is. Rooting for owners' pocketbooks over quality baseball is hardly good insight. He's probably a bit overrated, fantasy-wise, but we won't see anyone as good as Betts in the Sox' outfield in the next 20 years, minimum.

NBA is as high of a skill game at this point as it's ever been, additionally.

Who cares about "skills level."  It is not competitive any more as a league.  NBA is run by about a half dozen players.  It sucks because of that.

And quit saying people who are against 12 year / 420 mil contracts are "for the owners" and their pocketbooks.  You never saw John Henry complaining at all about the money.  Or the money he paid out in luxury tax penalties.  He has been THE biggest spender in baseball for years now so get over that false argument. 

Some of us fans here are for the team and not having albatross contracts preventing the team from winning. 

We are for the team and not for losing major draft picks as well as international signing money pool penalties preventing signings of those young players too.  Which is where the luxury tax hurts teams for real and that prevent the team from sustaining a farm with either replacement players or prospects to trade and prevents a team from staying on or near the top.

You can have Dombrowski.  I like this guy Bloom way better already.  He worked some major magic with TB and that was with pocket change.  Let him get out from under these terrible contracts and under the cap and watch him work his magic in Boston with some real money freed up because he knows how to build teams for the long run.  Which leads to dynasties and not one year wonder teams.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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22 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Boomerist Boomer Theory wants the Sox to trade Betts instead of competing this year, when they have a roster that at least gives them a chance to make the playoffs as is. Rooting for owners' pocketbooks over quality baseball is hardly good insight. He's probably a bit overrated, fantasy-wise, but we won't see anyone as good as Betts in the Sox' outfield in the next 20 years, minimum.

NBA is as high of a skill game at this point as it's ever been, additionally.

Whoooaaaa take it easy on that strawman!

Literally no one has mentioned a word about owners pockets, just the realism of how a monster contract that turns bad negatively affects your franchise for years with the Luxury Tax limits and loss of draft pick penalties and how little confidence there is of Mookie being an impact player just a few years forward. Mookie has turned down 30 per year over 10 years and stated he wants to go to free agency. Why let a player walk out on you for nothing when you can get a significant return and still win this year...

He was the 4th best hitter in that lineup last year. No reason to sell out the franchise for him.

The Sox can replace their 4th best hitter and still compete.

In 2020 for Mookie he's likely to take a hit in fantasy value if a trade occurs although he will likely be highly valuable in LA but not nearly as much in SD. 

 

Park Factors courtesy of ParkFactors.com:

Boston: +101 

LA Dodgers: -97 

San Diego: -86 

 

Mookie career home/road splits: 

Home: .319 Avg, .333 BABIP... .542 Slg, .930 OPS

Away: .285 Avg, .295 BABIP... .497 Slg, .858 OPS

With a 42% pull rate, mookie really takes advantage of the green monster. His results in the road are rather ordinary and his BABIP suffers.

If mookie gets traded I devalue him immediately. Although he can still be good in LA for high counting stats but i wouldn't bank on that Avg to be .300.

Edited by StevieStats
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I just wanted to take a moment and mention how much I hate this Red Sox ownership.

Carry on.

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20 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Who cares about "skills level."  It is not competitive any more as a league.  NBA is run by about a half dozen players.  It sucks because of that.

And quit saying people who are against 12 year / 420 mil contracts are "for the owners" and their pocketbooks.  You never saw John Henry complaining at all about the money.  Or the money he paid out in luxury tax penalties.  He has been THE biggest spender in baseball for years now so get over that false argument. 

Some of us fans here are for the team and not having albatross contracts preventing the team from winning. 

We are for the team and not for losing major draft picks as well as international signing money pool penalties preventing signings of those young players too.  Which is where the luxury tax hurts teams for real and that prevent the team from sustaining a farm with either replacement players or prospects to trade and prevents a team from staying on or near the top.

You can have Dombrowski.  I like this guy Bloom way better already.  He worked some major magic with TB and that was with pocket change.  Let him get out from under these terrible contracts and under the cap and watch him work his magic in Boston with some real money freed up because he knows how to build teams for the long run.  Which leads to dynasties and not one year wonder teams.

Very well said. I can understand how trading a superstar like Mookie would be really unpopular with your fan base, but if they were to make the proposed deal with the Dodgers I think it would be the right move. Next year Mookie has made it clear he wants to go to free agency and while I don’t think he’ll get the 12 year/$400 million that’s floating around, I think maybe he could get something like 11 and $350 million. I think McCutchen is a reasonable comparison for Betts and I would shudder to think about my team being on the hook for Cutch (who’s only 33 now) for 5 or 6 more years and close to $200 million. That would be pretty crippling even for a large market team like Boston. I realize he’s just one example, but I think Boston would be wise to take the 3 young, cost-controlled assets like Verdugo, Downs, and Ferguson and move on.

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18 minutes ago, B&F said:

 

I like how they show "last 2 years"... If you did last 1 year or last 3, results are drastically different. This just tells you he had a great outlier 2018 with Alex Cora's first year of *eh hem* coaching/managing.

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On 2/2/2020 at 10:27 PM, bluntbros said:


If clinching your division...winning a 100 games...and getting knocked out by a bunch of cheaters is “jack”....sign me up, slim.

rings are the only thing that matter. point still stands you cant team up/buy rings in baseball. you can have 3 hof pitchers and win how many rings ATL? 1

teaming lindor and mookie wont do much. you need a complete roster, getting hot, and some luck.

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5 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Whoooaaaa take it easy on that strawman!

Literally no one has mentioned a word about owners pockets, just the realism of how a monster contract that turns bad negatively affects your franchise for years with the Luxury Tax limits and loss of draft pick penalties and how little confidence there is of Mookie being an impact player just a few years forward. Mookie has turned down 30 per year over 10 years and stated he wants to go to free agency. Why let a player walk out on you for nothing when you can get a significant return and still win this year...

He was the 4th best hitter in that lineup last year. No reason to sell out the franchise for him.

The Sox can replace their 4th best hitter and still compete.

In 2020 for Mookie he's likely to take a hit in fantasy value if a trade occurs although he will likely be highly valuable in LA but not nearly as much in SD. 

 

Park Factors courtesy of ParkFactors.com:

Boston: +101 

LA Dodgers: -97 

San Diego: -86 

 

Mookie career home/road splits: 

Home: .319 Avg, .333 BABIP... .542 Slg, .930 OPS

Away: .285 Avg, .295 BABIP... .497 Slg, .858 OPS

With a 42% pull rate, mookie really takes advantage of the green monster. His results in the road are rather ordinary and his BABIP suffers.

If mookie gets traded I devalue him immediately. Although he can still be good in LA for high counting stats but i wouldn't bank on that Avg to be .300.

Bogaerts 141 wRC+
JD 139 wRC+
Mookie 135 wRC+
Devers 132 wRC+
 

Let’s be clear, “Fourth best hitter on his own team” is not only false, But based on how close and great all these guys are, it’s an attempt to be intentionally misleading. Mookie was still REALLY good. They happened to have 3 top 25 hitters in MLB. Lol

The home/road splits is also an attempt to be misleading. I know you know this, but all the people loving your post apparently aren’t aware that just about every team hits better at home than on the road. 

I’d expect Mookie to hit less HRs in some of the larger parks out west. But I wouldn’t be shocked if some of those turn into doubles, as well as some of his other “usual” outs in those cavernous outfields. It’s quite possible his average goes up. 

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Anything on the locals out of Boston as to whether or not anything is imminent?  Surprised based on the RW blurbs that believed a deal would likely be announced yesterday or today.  

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Latest RW update sure makes it sound like Betts to LAD is imminent:

Quote

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe hears that the Red Sox are in "advanced conversations with the Dodgers" about a Mookie Betts trade.
Speier adds that a deal could come together by the end of the night Tuesday and that David Price would be included in the swap. Betts has also drawn heavy trade interest from the Padres over the last few months and weeks, but it sounds like the Dodgers are quickly closing in on official acquisition of the superstar outfielder. Betts, who's set to earn $27 million in 2020, his final year of salary arbitration, slashed .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs, 80 RBI, 16 stolen bases, and 135 runs scored in 150 games last season with Boston. He was the AL MVP in 2018.

 

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1 minute ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

The counting stats will remain through the roof. Elite lineup. 

2020 League leader in Runs 

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Dodgers might finally do it this year. Hate to say. 
 

 

 

 

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Yahoo is reporting the Twins are the 3rd team involved.

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I would be worried about the stolen bases a bit.  The Dodgers are one of the least likeliest teams to run. near the bottom of the NL in SB attempts.  Perhaps you may say, because they just don't have a lot of speed?  Will the Dodgers risk Mookie getting hurt on the basepaths, with so much money and prospect value to get him?

My gut says Mookie runs more often but the HRs go down and he finishes something like .290-115R-25Hr-60Rbi-25 Sbs.

Another problem is that his RBI total, impressive for a leadoff hitter, just has to go down in the NL.

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I'm not going to lie.  This move is not the best for Betts, but it's not the worst either.  Let's be realistic.  His HRs are likely going down and I would have some concern for his RBI numbers too.  Still, he will be valuable, but I would move him down with his present outlook.

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

The counting stats will remain through the roof. Elite lineup. 

 

I bet he can't wait to bat behind Hyun-jin Ryu

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