KingJoffrey

Zac Gallen 2020 Outlook

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Zac Gallen mystifies me.  He’s a potential ace described as having 3 elite pitches - curve change and cutter.  All had a swinging strike rate over 15%.

The hype train must be building as he tends to mock as the 20 something top SP... ahead of some guys like Montas, Wheeler, Sale and Paxton.  

But here’s the problem.  He does NOT project to open in the Dbacks rotation.  They have Leake and Kelly in there.  This should change eventually. But it would be terrible if Gallen misses a few April Starts. 
 

Also have to wonder why he was traded? He’s young and cost controlled and performed well in the minors.  Was there something amiss?  Why couldn’t my Blue Jays have gotten him😢

 

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2 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Zac Gallen mystifies me.  He’s a potential ace described as having 3 elite pitches - curve change and cutter.  All had a swinging strike rate over 15%.

The hype train must be building as he tends to mock as the 20 something top SP... ahead of some guys like Montas, Wheeler, Sale and Paxton.  

But here’s the problem.  He does NOT project to open in the Dbacks rotation.  They have Leake and Kelly in there.  This should change eventually. But it would be terrible if Gallen misses a few April Starts. 
 

Also have to wonder why he was traded? He’s young and cost controlled and performed well in the minors.  Was there something amiss?  Why couldn’t my Blue Jays have gotten him😢

 

 

Not sure where you're getting your information from but RosterResource has him as their #4. It would be exceedingly rare for a team to trade a potential #2-#3 pitcher right after they acquired him. I don't know if there is a return that teams are willing to pay that would appease the DBacks. He's top 25% in Exit Velo, xwOBA, xSLG, xBA%, and K%

The hype train is out ahead of itself, but he'll have an MLB rotation spot with an amazing defense behind him. 

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Arizona diamondbacks MLB.com site has him 6th on the depth chart. Not saying I agree it should be the case. Just that there is some doubt.

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Hard to imagine Gallen and his 4 plus-pitch-arsenal not securing a spot in the rotation over the 31-year-old Merrill Kelly. Not saying it can't happen. But trading their top prospect in Jazz Chisholm for a starting pitcher they're just going to banish to the bullpen would seem an egregious mistake by the D-Backs. Especially after his showing last year, both at AAA and in the Bigs.

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3 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Arizona diamondbacks MLB.com site has him 6th on the depth chart. Not saying I agree it should be the case. Just that there is some doubt.

 

Gallen will be in the rotation. Might be as a #5 but he will be in there. Kelly probably moves into long relief / #6 starter.

The trade was surprising to everyone, Marlins got a high upside prospect but one that struggled in AA. So who knows.

Gallen's one weakness was walks which is surprising based on his control in the minors. If he can make improvements there he can be extremely good this year. I also like that he's a rare young pitcher that's coming off a large workload (170 IP), so Arizona shouldn't be too afraid to unleash him and get him up to around 200 IP. This is a nice advantage that a lot of pitchers ahead of him will face problems with (Luzardo, Paddack, Lamet, Glasnow, Severino?). If Gallen can get around 200 IP he should easily eclipse 200 K and be extremely valuable.

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2019: 3.61 FIP 4.15 xFIP
 

2020 Steamer projection: 4.21 ERA 4.17 FIP 4.26 xFIP

Looks to me like a waiver wire pitcher getting way overvalued.

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9 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

2019: 3.61 FIP 4.15 xFIP
2020 Steamer projection: 4.21 ERA 4.17 FIP 4.26 xFIP

Looks to me like a waiver wire pitcher getting way overvalued.

And yet his ERA in 80 innings in the majors last year was 2.81 with 96 K's.  But then I think Steamer is what is getting way overvalued.

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15 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And yet his ERA in 80 innings in the majors last year was 2.81 with 96 K's.  But then I think Steamer is what is getting way overvalued.

Right, 80 innings. That’s a short sample size. The ERA is not supported by the other metrics. It was a fluke. Steamer is actually one of the most accurate projection systems. At his current ADP it’s just dumb to get Gallen based on what we know. He’s a bottom of the rotation starter who MIGHT be better if everything works out. 

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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Statcast loves him.  His Stacast numbers say he was an ace.  He was THAT good.

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I’m going to own a ton of Gallen shares this year. 

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I think he is definitely a top 20 pitcher this year...Got him in dynasty and will have him in my redraft and keeper league as well 

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I’ve noticed Steamer projections are harsh on pitchers. Steamer projects 0 starting pitchers to finish with sub-3 ERAs this year, and only 4 to break 3.40 - deGrom, Scherzer, Cole and Sale. Gallen’s projected 4.21 ERA is better than Greinke, Ryu and Giolito, all at 4.26.

Pitcher development is very non-linear, which is why a purely math-based system like Steamer is going to struggle with it. Gallen is a good example - he increased his velo and improved his arsenal in 2019, but his mediocre 2018 in AAA is still going to be weighed heavily by Steamer.

Edited by SpartyOn4
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6 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Right, 80 innings. That’s a short sample size. The ERA is not supported by the other metrics. It was a fluke. Steamer is actually one of the most accurate projection systems. At his current ADP it’s just dumb to get Gallen based on what we know. He’s a bottom of the rotation starter who MIGHT be better if everything works out. 

Disagree totally that Steamer is some great and wonderful source of info.  It is just one of lots of online geek web sites and is far from perfect. And Gallen's ERA was not a fluke.

5 hours ago, B&F said:

Statcast loves him.  His Stacast numbers say he was an ace.  He was THAT good.

There you go.  Another online web site says the opposite.

4 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

I’ve noticed Steamer projections are harsh on pitchers. Steamer projects 0 starting pitchers to finish with sub-3 ERAs this year, and only 4 to break 3.40 - deGrom, Scherzer, Cole and Sale. Gallen’s projected 4.21 ERA is better than Greinke, Ryu and Giolito, all at 4.26.

Pitcher development is very non-linear, which is why a purely math-based system like Steamer is going to struggle with it. Gallen is a good example - he increased his velo and improved his arsenal in 2019, but his mediocre 2018 in AAA is still going to be weighed heavily by Steamer.

Yeah numbers in the minors are more reflective of learning and working on stuff like new pitches, new mechanics etc.  They are like yesterday's newspaper.  Especially for pitchers who are usually told to work on this or that and aren't out there to pad stats with their already developed pitches or even necessarily to win games.  Minors are to hone their craft which means working on their weaker areas so of course the stats are skewed in most cases.  Throw them away when the player gets to the majors because big league stats are the only stats that matter in the end.

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7 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Right, 80 innings. That’s a short sample size. The ERA is not supported by the other metrics. It was a fluke. Steamer is actually one of the most accurate projection systems. At his current ADP it’s just dumb to get Gallen based on what we know. He’s a bottom of the rotation starter who MIGHT be better if everything works out. 

 

Just curious, what metrics are you talking about other than the steamer projections for his FIP and xFIP? Among starting pitchers who threw at least 80 innings last season here is how Gallen ranked in some key metrics...

K% - 28.7% good for 22nd best

BB% - 10.8% not good obviously but the  fact that he threw 300+ innings between AA/AAA with a 6.7% BB rate I believe bodes well for his future. 
HR/FB% - 10.8% good for 12th best 

FIP - 3.61 good for 27th best

xFIP - 4.15 for 43rd overall just below Paxton and Paddock
SIERRA - 4.24 for 45th overall and right above guys like Soroka and Berrios

Soft% - 20.2% good for 10th best 

SwStr% - 12.8% good for 28th best and 35.3% of the time he's able to get swings outside the zone

Contact% - 72.2% good for 23rd best

Obviously his FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA were higher than his ERA which indicate he did get somewhat lucky with a 2.81 ERA last season but nobody is expecting a sub 3 ERA. However, to say that he is a waiver wire pitcher is a bit of a stretch.
There are sot of things to like about this kid. He generates swings and misses with three different pitches that are qualified as above average. He does not give up good contact as evidenced by his contact%, HR/FB, and Soft% numbers. Also, a lot of guys that are being drafted around him have innings limit concerns whereas he threw 170+ innings between the minors and majors last year. 

 

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9 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Right, 80 innings. That’s a short sample size. The ERA is not supported by the other metrics. It was a fluke. Steamer is actually one of the most accurate projection systems. At his current ADP it’s just dumb to get Gallen based on what we know. He’s a bottom of the rotation starter who MIGHT be better if everything works out. 

 

I agree that Gallen's ERA was not supported by metrics, but this is due to Gallen walking so many which is uncharacteristic of him. ERA is unstable in a small sample size, but so are advanced metrics. He walked 36 batters in 80 IP, a full walk per 9 above his career high in the minors. He had 17 walks in 90 innings in AAA in 2019. I'm expecting whatever he gives up in more hits allowed he will gain back in lowering his walk totals. Just looking straight at his FIP and saying that's who he is is short sighted IMO.

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13 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

2019: 3.61 FIP 4.15 xFIP
 

2020 Steamer projection: 4.21 ERA 4.17 FIP 4.26 xFIP

Looks to me like a waiver wire pitcher getting way overvalued.

Exhibit 9,353 why i think steamer "projections" and the like are useless garbage. 💩

Edited by StevieStats
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13 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Right, 80 innings. That’s a short sample size. The ERA is not supported by the other metrics. It was a fluke. Steamer is actually one of the most accurate projection systems. At his current ADP it’s just dumb to get Gallen based on what we know. He’s a bottom of the rotation starter who MIGHT be better if everything works out. 

Hey, I got some ocean front property in Kansas that I'm selling... You seem like you might be interested.

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I really like Gallen. But it seems like a good chunk of the intrigue would be at what *should* be a reasonable cost. If the ADP starts rising beyond that, it might get less interested

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13 hours ago, B&F said:

Statcast loves him.  His Stacast numbers say he was an ace.  He was THAT good.

He very clearly wasn’t an ace. His ERA was a fluke. I didn’t see his Statcast numbers but his FIP and xFIP are very telling. No ace has those numbers. I’m not trying to put Gallen down, but the guy is getting way overhyped. Right now it’s a guy with good stuff who posted a good ERA with unimpressive advanced metrics in a short sample size.

He’s the type of player you get for $1 at the end of an auction or draft with one of your last picks. His current price tag is ridiculously bad and an easy fade.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

Hey, I got some ocean front property in Kansas that I'm selling... You seem like you might be interested.

I think you’re the one that bought it. It seems that you’re the type of fantasy owner who jumps at all the hyped players and lets smart owners get all the bargains and then wonders how he lost his league again.

Gallen’s elite ERA in a short sample size is not supported by his metrics. Steamer (a credible source) is pretty down on him. So are ATC, Depth Chart and all other projection systems.

Can Gallen end up having a great year? Sure. That said, all the evidence we have points to him being a waiver wire player with upside going for ridiculous prices.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

He very clearly wasn’t an ace. His ERA was a fluke. I didn’t see his Statcast numbers but his FIP and xFIP are very telling. No ace has those numbers. I’m not trying to put Gallen down, but the guy is getting way overhyped. Right now it’s a guy with good stuff who posted a good ERA with unimpressive advanced metrics in a short sample size.

He’s the type of player you get for $1 at the end of an auction or draft with one of your last picks. His current price tag is ridiculously bad and an easy fade.

Gallen's 3.61 FIP would have placed 19th among qualified pitchers... Just after Noah Syndergaard and just in front of Luis Castillo... So how is that an unimpressive FIP?

K/9, SwStr%, Z-Contact%, also would be Top 20 among qualified pitchers... His Soft Hit % would have been Top 10. Seems impressive.

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His 0.90 HR/9 was really good and the metrics supported it should have happened then. But will it KEEP happening? Is that his talent, or is it an outlier? His 4-seam played up, but will it keep playing up? 

We know K, SwStr and things like that repeat for pitchers and you don't need a ton of innings to figure it out. Not sure about the other things in his profile yet.

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12 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

He very clearly wasn’t an ace. His ERA was a fluke. I didn’t see his Statcast numbers but his FIP and xFIP are very telling. No ace has those numbers. I’m not trying to put Gallen down, but the guy is getting way overhyped. Right now it’s a guy with good stuff who posted a good ERA with unimpressive advanced metrics in a short sample size.

He’s the type of player you get for $1 at the end of an auction or draft with one of your last picks. His current price tag is ridiculously bad and an easy fade.

 

There are more than just two advanced metrics. To only look at fip and xFIP and say a 3.61 fip is not good is simply false. Look at who was ranked near him in that metric among many others. Myself and @StevieStats just gave examples of some of his very impressive advanced metrics outside of the two you keep bringing up. I have no problem with you not wanting to draft him but saying he is only worthy of a last round draft pick means you are not digging deep enough. Is there some risk in drafting him? Of course there is, he's a young guy with only 80 innings in the bigs but the upside is definitely worth more than what you’re stating. 

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13 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

I think you’re the one that bought it. It seems that you’re the type of fantasy owner who jumps at all the hyped players and lets smart owners get all the bargains and then wonders how he lost his league again.

Gallen’s elite ERA in a short sample size is not supported by his metrics. Steamer (a credible source) is pretty down on him. So are ATC, Depth Chart and all other projection systems.

Can Gallen end up having a great year? Sure. That said, all the evidence we have points to him being a waiver wire player with upside going for ridiculous prices.

 

 

 

Sorry, didn't hear you, it's windy today and and my championship flags are making a racket waving like crazy.

Anyway, it seems all you got is pointing to projection systems and misunderstanding metrics. You said his FIP was bad and quoted the 3.61 but when you put that 3.61 in context he was Top 20 among qualified pitchers. His SwStr, ZContact were Top 20 and his Soft Hit Top 10 (among qualified). So you say his metrics aren't good but yet you have posters providing you metrics that are good. 

Can you provide these poor metrics you speak of?

Obviously he's an upside player so there will be mixed opinions but at least quote us these poor metrics in context or explain why his good metrics will be over-weighed by the bad.

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7 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

Just curious, what metrics are you talking about other than the steamer projections for his FIP and xFIP? Among starting pitchers who threw at least 80 innings last season here is how Gallen ranked in some key metrics...

K% - 28.7% good for 22nd best

BB% - 10.8% not good obviously but the  fact that he threw 300+ innings between AA/AAA with a 6.7% BB rate I believe bodes well for his future. 
HR/FB% - 10.8% good for 12th best 

FIP - 3.61 good for 27th best

xFIP - 4.15 for 43rd overall just below Paxton and Paddock
SIERRA - 4.24 for 45th overall and right above guys like Soroka and Berrios

Soft% - 20.2% good for 10th best 

SwStr% - 12.8% good for 28th best and 35.3% of the time he's able to get swings outside the zone

Contact% - 72.2% good for 23rd best

Obviously his FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA were higher than his ERA which indicate he did get somewhat lucky with a 2.81 ERA last season but nobody is expecting a sub 3 ERA. However, to say that he is a waiver wire pitcher is a bit of a stretch.
There are sot of things to like about this kid. He generates swings and misses with three different pitches that are qualified as above average. He does not give up good contact as evidenced by his contact%, HR/FB, and Soft% numbers. Also, a lot of guys that are being drafted around him have innings limit concerns whereas he threw 170+ innings between the minors and majors last year. 

 

I’m using his actual results from last year. His ERA well outperformed his FIP and xFIP which we agree on, but it wasn’t even just barely, it was a significant difference. You admit his BB% isn’t good, which is a big deal. You compared him to Paxton, Paddack, Soroka and Berrios, those are all pitchers to avoid. Paxton can’t stay healthy and was very pedestrian last year; Paddack has long been considered better suited for the bullpen and has outperformed his advanced metrics; Soroka is terrible at strikeouts and well overachieved last year; Berrios only offers wins as he’s at best a #3 starter.


2019

Paxton: 3.82 ERA 3.86 FIP 4.03 xFIP

Paddack: 3.33 ERA 3.95 FIP 4.05 xFIP

Soroka: 2.68 ERA 3.45 FIP 3.85 xFIP 7.32 K/9

Berrios: 3.68 ERA 3.85 FIP 4.32 xFIP

 

 

His projections are the other thing that I look at and they’re made by experts so it’s silly not to give them serious consideration. Steamer and ATC are respected throughout the industry for their accuracy. 

 

He’s almost certainly going to be on an innings limit this year. 150 is probably his peak.

 

Well those other starters are better than him though, tell me you honestly would prefer him over:

Lynn, Lamet, Fried, Montas, Ray, Marquez... 

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