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Zac Gallen 2020 Outlook


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There really isn't THAT much hype overall, maybe there is in this thread, but he's going for an NFBC ADP of 130, good for the SP #37. So he's essentially going as an SP3 or 4 in standard leagues, in r

Any team that would choose to start Mike Leake over Zac Gallen deserves to finish dead last in it's division.   End of story.

I’m really enjoying my production out of this bottom of the rotation waiver wire pitcher!

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37 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Gallen's 3.61 FIP would have placed 19th among qualified pitchers... Just after Noah Syndergaard and just in front of Luis Castillo... So how is that an unimpressive FIP?

K/9, SwStr%, Z-Contact%, also would be Top 20 among qualified pitchers... His Soft Hit % would have been Top 10. Seems impressive.


80 ip. It’s too short a sample size and it’s silly to rate him among pitchers who pitched significantly more innings. 

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1 minute ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

I’m using his actual results from last year. His ERA well outperformed his FIP and xFIP which we agree on, but it wasn’t even just barely, it was a significant difference. You admit his BB% isn’t good, which is a big deal. You compared him to Paxton, Paddack, Soroka and Berrios, those are all pitchers to avoid. Paxton can’t stay healthy and was very pedestrian last year; Paddack has long been considered better suited for the bullpen and has outperformed his advanced metrics; Soroka is terrible at strikeouts and well overachieved last year; Berrios only offers wins as he’s at best a #3 starter.

 

It's a bigger deal that you are making a huge deal out of 80 innings pitched. He had elite control in the minors. His xFIP only regressed because of the walks. There's very little chance he repeats walking that many people.

Digging so deep into his sabermetric stats can only get so far. The first is understanding where he was in sabermetrics, but you also have to consider changes players might make. xFIP in 80 innings is not indicative of anything for the future, but his elite strikeout rate is, and his elite control in the minors is too.

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6 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:


80 ip. It’s too short a sample size and it’s silly to rate him among pitchers who pitched significantly more innings. 

 

So what you do you personally use to project him this season then? his minor leagues numbers that were also good?

 

The walks were a concern last year but hes a young SP, all of them got something you could take a dig at, but there are more numbers supporting him being good than not ya know

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11 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

He’s almost certainly going to be on an innings limit this year. 150 is probably his peak.


He pitched over 170 innings between the minors and majors last year so I’m not sure why they would reduce his workload. Another thing I would like to point out is you keep on saying that 80 innings is too small of a sample size yet you’re relying on those same 80 innings to tell us that his fip and xFIP are bad. It's a bit contradictory if you ask me. 

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20 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Sorry, didn't hear you, it's windy today and and my championship flags are making a racket waving like crazy.

Anyway, it seems all you got is pointing to projection systems and misunderstanding metrics. You said his FIP was bad and quoted the 3.61 but when you put that 3.61 in context he was Top 20 among qualified pitchers. His SwStr, ZContact were Top 20 and his Soft Hit Top 10 (among qualified). So you say his metrics aren't good but yet you have posters providing you metrics that are good. 

Can you provide these poor metrics you speak of?

Obviously he's an upside player so there will be mixed opinions but at least quote us these poor metrics in context or explain why his good metrics will be over-weighed by the bad.

I honestly don’t think you won many leagues. Not trying to be rude or insulting, but your type of thinking is contrary to what people who win major fantasy tournaments say. They always say to spend on value and proven production. For example Larry Schechter. He’s probably the greatest fantasy player ever and your strategy is the exact opposite of his. 
 

You’re posting a bunch of advanced stats as if they change the fact that he’s not worth his ADP. 
 

I never said 3.61 was bad, I said it’s unimpressive and it isn’t. That’s a #3 starter. FIP however doesn’t use league average HR rates, which is why xFIP is considered more accurate. His xFIP is 4.15. All those great swinging percentages and contact rates and yet he STILL has an xFIP of 4.15. 
 

Does your league count swinging percentages and contact rates? I don’t think you understand that all of those things don’t mean as much as you think they do.  I never said that Gallen didn’t have potential, but guess what experts know them too and yet their projections for him are very telling. Why are they wrong and you’re right? Please enlighten me.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

dang yall be nice ole fella, hes trying at least, fun read tho hah

 

Image result for stop hes already dead.gif

Not as much trying as easily proving my point. Unfortunately some people get so high on hype they refuse to think logically.

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4 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:


He pitched over 170 innings between the minors and majors last year so I’m not sure why they would reduce his workload. Another thing I would like to point out is you keep on saying that 80 innings is too small of a sample size yet you’re relying on those same 80 innings to tell us that his fip and xFIP are bad. It's a bit contradictory if you ask me. 


So in your opinion he’s going to jump from 80 innings to 200 in 1 season? 180? Projection systems all top out at 149 and 150 seems a reasonable ceiling. They’re not going to give him a full workload like that.

How is it contradictory? I’m saying it wasn’t an impressive small sample and that we don’t know how he’ll do over the course of a full season. 

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2 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:


So in your opinion he’s going to jump from 80 innings to 200 in 1 season? 180? Projection systems all top out at 149 and 150 seems a reasonable ceiling. They’re not going to give him a full workload like that.

How is it contradictory? I’m saying it wasn’t an impressive small sample and that we don’t know how he’ll do over the course of a full season. 

 

He pitched 170 IP combined majors minors in 2019...He can probably get all the way up to 200.

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20 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

So what you do you personally use to project him this season then? his minor leagues numbers that were also good?

 

The walks were a concern last year but hes a young SP, all of them got something you could take a dig at, but there are more numbers supporting him being good than not ya know

Well I’m using everything, his past results, his projections...

 

Whats your projection for him?

 

Mine is 150 ip 7-9 wins 3.75-3.85 ERA 155 SO or so. That’s a waiver wire player to me.

 

I trust Steamer/ATC but they tend to be a bit conservative, so my projection is a bit better. I don’t see him pitching more than double his Major League innings so 150-160. He’s good at strikeouts so I’ll take his projection though I’d probably add as I don’t necessarily expect his K/9 to go down. His ERA will almost certainly be a lot worse and this seems realistic to me.

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5 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Well I’m using everything, his past results, his projections...

Whats your projection for him?

Mine is 150 ip 7-9 wins 3.75-3.85 ERA 155 SO or so. That’s a waiver wire player to me.

I trust Steamer/ATC but they tend to be a bit conservative, so my projection is a bit better. I don’t see him pitching more than double his Major League innings so 150-160. He’s good at strikeouts so I’ll take his projection though I’d probably add as I don’t necessarily expect his K/9 to go down. His ERA will almost certainly be a lot worse and this seems realistic to me.

 

IP wise I would guess around 185 but depending on playoffs etc could go higher but i think 180 ish his floor for IP this year barring a long injury, due to in the 2019 Calendar year he threw 170 professional innings and they probably want to get that a tad higher as he develops 

and in those innings 190 K's with a 3.6 ERA with an under 1.2 WHIP on 11-12 wins

I'm probably drinking the kool-aid more than you, think he has some upside this year

 

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18 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:


So in your opinion he’s going to jump from 80 innings to 200 in 1 season? 180? Projection systems all top out at 149 and 150 seems a reasonable ceiling. They’re not going to give him a full workload like that.

How is it contradictory? I’m saying it wasn’t an impressive small sample and that we don’t know how he’ll do over the course of a full season. 

 

No. In my opinion he's capable of throwing at least the same amount of innings he pitched last year...170ish. So in your opinion the only reps that count on a pitchers arm when it comes to workload are those pitched in the majors? That makes no sense. 

It's contradictory because you're using the same small sample size to tell me his fip and xFIP were unimpressive. Yet when others use that sample size to bring up other metrics that were impressive you question their validity because of the sample size. As stated by someone else fip and xFIP take far more innings to stabilize than the metrics like SwStr and contact rates. Also his 300+ innings of elite level control in the minors holds more weight than 80 innings in the majors imo. 

As far as projections and "experts" I look at them but they are always wrong. It's just the opinion of someone else. I trust my research and like to think for myself when it comes to fantasy sports. 

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36 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

 

Mine is 150 ip 7-9 wins 3.75-3.85 ERA 155 SO or so. That’s a waiver wire player to me.

 

I respect someone willing to come into a player's thread and express a dissenting opinion, but some of your points seam pretty far off the mark. A starting pitcher with a k/9 over 9 and an ERA between 3.75 and 3.85 is most definitely not a waiver wire player. That's more in line with an SP4. I'll be perfectly happy with those numbers though I think he's capable of outdoing that. I'm not sure why you're getting so hung up on projecting his innings. He's a 24 year old pitcher who threw 171 innings last year. Barring an injury or complete ineffectiveness, there's no reason to think he can't do the same or increase it up to 200 innings. He's got a fastball that's tough to square up, he's got a full arsenal of pitches, he gets swings and misses, he pitches in a home park that suppresses home runs, and pitches in front of an elite defense. As with any young pitcher there is a potential for a scary floor (see Pivetta, Nick) but there is also a exciting ceiling here for a year two breakout (see Bieber, Shane).

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I’m going to end the discussion here, because I feel that it’s become an argument and is taking away from the discussion and everyone including myself is just repeating the same things.

All I’m saying is that in my decade+ of playing fantasy, I learned that it‘s just plain stupid to gamble in fantasy. If a player is unproven and he’s going for more than proven decent players, fade and don’t think twice about it. For every breakout there’s many more busts. Remember when everyone thought Nick Pivetta was going to breakout last year? It doesn’t matter how good a pitcher‘s swinging strike % is or how great his  GB rate is. Or how he rated among qualified starters. Guess what, all those projection experts know it too and they’re better than you at this, if you disagree then go apply for a job doing them instead since you apparently are an undiscovered Einstein.  Unless a starter pitched 150+ innings with a solid ERA matched by his FIP and xFIP the previous season and better yet multiple seasons, any price you pay is gambling.

 

Gallen had been on my list of targets this year, until I saw his ADP. He has good stuffand had a phenomenal ERA in a small sample size. Unfortunately it’s not backed up by his FIP or xFIP, with FIP painting him as a #3 starter and his xFIP as even worse. All of it is a small sample size and it’s not impressive.  Will he put it all together and improve? It’s possible. Will he be a waiver wire bust? Also possible. Respected projection systems are very bearish on him, that’s a major red flag as they have proven accuracy. They’re not always right, but they‘re more right than wrong so it’s idiotic to ignore them.

 

Seriously, what is the projection here? A Cy Young caliber year? 20 wins and a 2.90 ERA? That’s insane. A 3.30-3.50 ERA with 13 wins? That’s pretty optimistic and why not just get someone more likely to get those results around Gallen’s ADP? There’s a couple of starters who can more realistically do that right around it. Do you expect him to live up to his projections of 9 wins and a 4.17 or so ERA? Then why would you get him at all? His ADP is just too high for a gamble. 

 

 

 

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Donald Warner who through 2018 ranked 43rd lifetime in NFBC lifetime rankings just chose him 107th overall in my $150 Draft Champions, he likely will have many teams though and some will be much bigger so this isn't the end all or be all.

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@Thenewwildone8 I agree and apologies for taking offense to your comments so much. Clearly I really like him this year for multiple reasons. The thing that got me was in your first post you mentioned how he was nothing but a waiver wire guy and later that he was worth no more than $1 at the end of the draft.
What I have experienced in my many years of playing fantasy baseball is that often times the team that wins is the one that took safe early picks in addition to educated risks which is what I find Gallen to be. There certainly is risk in drafting him at his current ADP which I to feel is pretty high for a guy who only has 80 innings in the majors. So I do agree with you that his ADP is quite high and may be too high for some peoples taste but that was not your initial argument that I took offense to. Good luck to you this year

 

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16 hours ago, hockeyfan77 said:

I think he is definitely a top 20 pitcher this year...Got him in dynasty and will have him in my redraft and keeper league as well 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say he won't be a top 20 SP. I think he could be a solid mid-rotation fantasy SP though.

Top 20 is just a big leap. For me.

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38 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

@Thenewwildone8 I agree and apologies for taking offense to your comments so much. Clearly I really like him this year for multiple reasons. The thing that got me was in your first post you mentioned how he was nothing but a waiver wire guy and later that he was worth no more than $1 at the end of the draft.

This feels like the same thing that happened in the Rendon thread, when he said he wouldn't take him in the top 100 and it all went off the rails.

I actually do think he made some decent points in both threads and has given me things to think about with both Rendon and Gallen. He just overstated the cases at first.

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6 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:


80 ip. It’s too short a sample size and it’s silly to rate him among pitchers who pitched significantly more innings. 

No, you said his FIP was bad, but it's not. Now you are shifting the goal posts. You didn't realize his 3.61 was actually good in context of what the typical FIP is.

If the sample was too small to be meaningful why did you use FIP and xFIP as a reason why he's an end of draft player?

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22 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

Wow did not realize Gallen was such a polarizing figure!  I think you can take a 10+ K/9 to the bank with him given the arsenal and elite changeup.  Double digit wins also seems plausible.

There seems to be only one poster that got polarized.  Reminds me of one guy who kept attacking Trevor Story as over hyped and a loser in his thread a couple of years back.  It pushed that thread up to the one most posted in that year because he would not stop .  Haven't seen that guy around for a long time now.

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