KingJoffrey

Zac Gallen 2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

Getting a Greg Maddux vibe with him.  Yes I said that.

 

Dang. That's a hefty amount of praise, my friend. I can dig it! The only guy that really gives me Maddux vibes is Kyle Hendricks, less with the actual arsenal and more with the ability to pinpoint, absolutely make batters teeter-totter, and great fielding (but obviously some similarity in arsenal too). Gallen has that nice prime Maddux velocity though to go with his 3 plus pitches.

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Posted (edited)

As good as he's been, his changeup(which is probably his best pitch) got a 6.4 pitch value from fangraphs last year and sits currently at a -2.2. Once the results start matching the quality of that pitch he could be even better. 

 

The rest of his pitches have been working very well so far though, with the FB being 16th best in baseball, and the cutter and curve both being top five. If/when the change gets back to delivering the positive results it should, he'll be in a very small group of pitchers with four plus pitches. Darvish, Beiber, deGrom, Gray, Verlander last year. I'd say he's a top 15 pitcher right now, and wouldn't fault anyone putting him top 10. [...]

 

Edit: To add onto that, looking at each start individually...

1st start @SD- nothing but the curve was working, rough start

2nd start vs LAD- Had the FB and curve but the cutter and change got hit around a bit

3rd start vs HOU- cutter and change looked good, but curve and FB lagged behind

4th start @COL- everything was cooking except the change, which is impressive in Coors

last night every pitch returned plus pitch value and OAK is sixth in wRC+ right now, but not against Gallen. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come. 

Edited by tonycpsu
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He’s a must start every game out regardless of matchup. Start your studs. Those in leagues that count wins, like mine, you just have to suffer the lack of.

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Over/under on run support for Gallen ROS. I’ll put it at five runs. Not per game. TOTAL.  <_<

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This guy has been even better than I hoped, and I had high expectations. Maybe he could improve a little bit at holding runners, but he's not going to surprise anybody in next year's draft. 

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Posted (edited)

I thought he was doomed last night 1st inning when he loaded the bases with nobody out. He pulled a Houdini actually there getting out of it w/only a run scored. Then he settled down for the rest of the game - definitely showed me something last night.

Edited by SuperJoint
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On 8/23/2020 at 5:34 PM, SuperJoint said:

I thought he was doomed last night 1st inning when he loaded the bases with nobody out. He pulled a Houdini actually there getting out of it w/only a run scored. Then he settled down for the rest of the game - definitely showed me something last night.

 

Totally Redeem Yourself GIFs | Tenor

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On 8/23/2020 at 7:34 PM, SuperJoint said:

I thought he was doomed last night 1st inning when he loaded the bases with nobody out. He pulled a Houdini actually there getting out of it w/only a run scored. Then he settled down for the rest of the game - definitely showed me something last night.

I finally get to use this useless piece of knowledge i've stored for years.  By definition, he actually didn't pull the Houdini because he allowed a run.  This is more me getting to spread the term rather than correcting you my friend.  Let's continue to rejoice in owning this young ace!

 

"A Houdini is the new stat that Bill James developed (www.BillJamesOnline.com) to count the number of times a pitcher got out of a bases-loaded, no-outs jam with no runs scoring. It's a Houdini Save if it's done in a save situation."

https://www.billjamesonline.com/stats2/#:~:text=A Houdini is the new,done in a save situation.

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I just noticed this poor SOB has 5 consecutive QS and not a win to show for it.  Also doesn't have a lose but this just goes to show Wins in fantasy baseball are another outdated category just like saves.  

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@LAD next.  If he shuts them down it solidifies himself as an Ace.

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12 minutes ago, B&F said:

@LAD next.  If he shuts them down it solidifies himself as an Ace.


He’s already pitched well against the Dodgers, Rockies, Astros, A’s and Padres.  He hasn’t had a single clunker yet.  He’s already solidified as an ace.

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2 hours ago, meh2 said:

❤️

 

Love how stats are given out without more context.

anywho, 22 starts, 7 of those with the marlins. Previous record was held by Aaron Sele.

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3 minutes ago, mehtavg2000 said:


He’s already pitched well against the Dodgers, Rockies, Astros, A’s and Padres.  He hasn’t had a single clunker yet.  He’s already solidified as an ace.

 

It was his performance in Colorado at the Rockies that convinced me, with Blackmon running really hot at that time. 

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

Imagine if this guy got some easy starts? They must be coming right?

If he just keeps doing his thing, I am totally happy with it. Anything better is a bonus.

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This guy is an incredible pitcher. I was excited about where his upside was with his overall ADP and he's smashed it. Enjoy the ride this year because next year he'll be up there in ADP. His feel for the game reminds me of Zach Greinke. At some point a clunker will come but the fact that he's gone this far without one, against the team he's pitched against, is truly amazing.

PLUS HE GOT SOME RUN SUPPORT ❤️ ❤️

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On 1/31/2020 at 1:00 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

2019: 3.61 FIP 4.15 xFIP
 

2020 Steamer projection: 4.21 ERA 4.17 FIP 4.26 xFIP

Looks to me like a waiver wire pitcher getting way overvalued.

 

On 1/31/2020 at 1:27 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

Right, 80 innings. That’s a short sample size. The ERA is not supported by the other metrics. It was a fluke. Steamer is actually one of the most accurate projection systems. At his current ADP it’s just dumb to get Gallen based on what we know. He’s a bottom of the rotation starter who MIGHT be better if everything works out. 

I’m really enjoying my production out of this bottom of the rotation waiver wire pitcher!

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, meh2 said:

 

I’m really enjoying my production out of this bottom of the rotation waiver wire pitcher!

Just another cautionary tale on why steamer, zips, and other "projection" systems are garbage -- especially when looking for player growth and breakouts.

 

On 1/31/2020 at 2:29 PM, StevieStats said:

Exhibit 9,353 why i think steamer "projections" and the like are useless garbage. 💩

 

In fact rereading page 1-2 of this thread was pretty enjoyable... Everyone gets players wrong it happens not going to roast a guy for that because we've all been on the other side of that coin... but to see the steamer vs analysis of metrics in reasoning/support of opinions was great.

Edited by StevieStats
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On 8/29/2020 at 2:35 PM, meh2 said:

 

I’m really enjoying my production out of this bottom of the rotation waiver wire pitcher!

Let’s see, 2.09 ERA in 6 months! OMG I was wrong this guy is an ace!!

Wait, this season has only been a month long and that’s in only 7 games. Well no worries, I’m sure it’s not a fluke. Let’s check out his advanced metrics! 


3.81 FIP 3.68 xFIP, strikeout rate down from last year, hmmm that sounds like a mid rotation waiver wire player. 
 

Well at least he’ll get a ton of wins! Oh wait he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Let’s look in a crystal ball:

 

Steamer projects a 4.17 ERA going forward and he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Verdict: you’re excited because your waiver wire scrub overachieved for 7 games. 

Edited by Thenewwildone8
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2 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Verdict: you’re excited because your waiver wire scrub overachieved for 7 games. 

He’s not an ace but he isn’t on a waiver wire unless you’re in a 6 team league.

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