BradMaddox

Ramon Laureano 2020 Outlook

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Good young player. Even split essentially with power/AVG at home and away last year. Unfortunately got hurt for playoffs. Thoughts on 2020?

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I kept him as a keeper. Like the power/speed combo. (Essentially means I value him as a top 100 guy.)

It wasn't an easy decision cuz I don't really trust him. And I could see him stumbling out of the gate again like last year.

But I personally don't like low BB/high K guys. So my view of him likely biased.

Still, he showed plate discipline improvement as 2019 progressed and he has legit skills. If he falls short of 20/20, I would consider the season a bust.

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Read this today on TDG.  Definitely gives me some pause about his sb totals going forward, but hes also been extremely successful (20/23 in the majors so far) so I guess its more about being good on the bases than having flat out speed.

 

"Unfortunately, he is probably only moderately fast (90th home to first, 104th Sprint Speed) and Oakland was 28th in all of baseball last year at stolen base attempts so stealing 20 bases in a season might not be a fair expectation. If he only hits 25 home runs and steals 10 bags, he’ll still be a valuable contributor and will outperform this ranking, likely to move up the ranks next year. "

 

As for the plate discipline, this last year was by far his worst bb% of his career so I'm guessing that trends in the right direction.  If he can get that back up to his ~8% walk rate that he's hovered around previously then he should push to the top of their lineup and turn into a true 5 category player with an increase in counting stats to go with his already good power/speed combo.

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10 hours ago, papasmurf said:

I kept him as a keeper. Like the power/speed combo. (Essentially means I value him as a top 100 guy.)

It wasn't an easy decision cuz I don't really trust him. And I could see him stumbling out of the gate again like last year.

But I personally don't like low BB/high K guys. So my view of him likely biased.

Still, he showed plate discipline improvement as 2019 progressed and he has legit skills. If he falls short of 20/20, I would consider the season a bust.

Same here, have him in dynasty, definitely see him as a top 100 guy 

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4 hours ago, hockeyfan77 said:

Same here, have him in dynasty, definitely see him as a top 100 guy 


I’ve seen his as high as 67 on dynasty rankings.  Stolen bases are rare enough that his 20+/20+ potential are keeping him very high, despite some red flags

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There are definitely some red flags but we have to keep in mind that it is a small sample size in which he also dealt with an injury. That being said there was some improvement to his walk and strike out rates in the second half. Obviously in dynasty and keeper formats his value is a lot higher than redraft but even in redraft I feel he should be going in the top 100 for sure.

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14 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

There are definitely some red flags but we have to keep in mind that it is a small sample size in which he also dealt with an injury. That being said there was some improvement to his walk and strike out rates in the second half. Obviously in dynasty and keeper formats his value is a lot higher than redraft but even in redraft I feel he should be going in the top 100 for sure.

His pre-season ranking on Yahoo is #82 overall and #57 among hitters only.  He won't be under the radar in drafts there for sure.

To give you a feel for what that means he is ranked right behind Bo Bichette, Jose Abreu, Max Muncy, Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario who afre the five directly above him.

And he is ranked right ahead of Tim Anderson, Jorge Soler, Josh Bell, Jeff McNeil, Josh Donaldson, Trey Mancini, Nick Castellanos, Andrew Benetendi and The Moose among others.

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On 1/30/2020 at 7:51 PM, BackyardBaseball said:

Read this today on TDG.  Definitely gives me some pause about his sb totals going forward, but hes also been extremely successful (20/23 in the majors so far) so I guess its more about being good on the bases than having flat out speed.

 

"Unfortunately, he is probably only moderately fast (90th home to first, 104th Sprint Speed) and Oakland was 28th in all of baseball last year at stolen base attempts so stealing 20 bases in a season might not be a fair expectation. If he only hits 25 home runs and steals 10 bags, he’ll still be a valuable contributor and will outperform this ranking, likely to move up the ranks next year. "

 

As for the plate discipline, this last year was by far his worst bb% of his career so I'm guessing that trends in the right direction.  If he can get that back up to his ~8% walk rate that he's hovered around previously then he should push to the top of their lineup and turn into a true 5 category player with an increase in counting stats to go with his already good power/speed combo.

i wouldnt worry. jo ram 27.8 and lindor 27.5. thats tied with castellanos 27.8

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I'm in on Laureano. Seems like the fantasy pros out there have him as a top 20 OF but the general community teats him more like a top 40

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10 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

I'm in on Laureano. Seems like the fantasy pros out there have him as a top 20 OF but the general community teats him more like a top 40


I think he’s going to have a great year with close to 30 HR, 25 SB and 170 runs/RBIs. Prior to his injury in the 2nd half he was making improvements in both his bb% and k% and continued that trend when he returned from the injury. He had a rough go at the plate to begin the year during March/April hitting .234 but after that he was on a tear. Outside of that start the only month where he hit below .286 was in June where he hit .257. That month he still had 7 HR, 15 runs, 22 RBIs, and 5 SB. His home/road splits are also good. Yeah, I’m all in on this kid. 

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2 hours ago, BostonCajun said:


I think he’s going to have a great year with close to 30 HR, 25 SB and 170 runs/RBIs. Prior to his injury in the 2nd half he was making improvements in both his bb% and k% and continued that trend when he returned from the injury. He had a rough go at the plate to begin the year during March/April hitting .234 but after that he was on a tear. Outside of that start the only month where he hit below .286 was in June where he hit .257. That month he still had 7 HR, 15 runs, 22 RBIs, and 5 SB. His home/road splits are also good. Yeah, I’m all in on this kid. 

 

 

His injury (stress reaction in shin) started during the Tokyo series playing on that astroturf. That might explain his slow start. 

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  1. Laureano stole most of his bases when he hit 7th, when he moved up the SB's went down, he is projected to hit 2nd. Source a podcast
  2. Billy Beane doesn't like SB's. Source Moneyball
  3. Don't pencil in 25 is what I'm hinting at.
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1 minute ago, turner46 said:
  1. Laureano stole most of his bases when he hit 7th, when he moved up the SB's went down, he is projected to hit 2nd. Source a podcast
  2. Billy Beane doesn't like SB's. Source Moneyball
  3. Don't pencil in 25 is what I'm hinting at.

 

Yeah you're probably right since only 10 guys stole 25 or more last year. If they let him run he could probably easily get to 25 with his speed and awareness he's shown throughout his minor league career and small sample last year (13 of 15 attempts). Still, even if he gets 15, only 2 more than he had last season in 123 games, he should be a top 20 OF since I think he'll hit 25+ HR and score close to 90 runs. 

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1 minute ago, BostonCajun said:

 

Yeah you're probably right since only 10 guys stole 25 or more last year. If they let him run he could probably easily get to 25 with his speed and awareness he's shown throughout his minor league career and small sample last year (13 of 15 attempts). Still, even if he gets 15, only 2 more than he had last season in 123 games, he should be a top 20 OF since I think he'll hit 25+ HR and score close to 90 runs. 

 


Agree completely, on most teams I think he would be safer but hitting 2nd for Oakland likely hinders his SB totals/attempts.

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31 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 


Agree completely, on most teams I think he would be safer but hitting 2nd for Oakland likely hinders his SB totals/attempts.


I didn’t realize until you had mentioned it that they were that low in stolen bases last year. They were the third lowest in stolen base attempts per game. I am hindering my expectations. 

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Posted (edited)

outside ramon and semien who had any speed? (chapman, piscotty, khris, pinder, chanha, phegley/murphy, profar had a little but didnt get on base so)

that probably had something to do with it. i do agree 25 bags is ceiling for ramon

Edited by colepenhagen

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3rd lowest SB's in 2019, lowest in 2018, 3rd lowest in 2017, 5th lowest in 2016, 12th lowest in 2015, 10th lowest in 2014, 12th lowest in 2013 etc... Billy Beane is a great GM and he doesn't like to steal or build teams with that in mind. He was the first to be in on OBP and analytics then the rest of the league caught up. He then found another cheap way to build a team that the rest of the league undervalued and that was a flyball heavy team and like OBP the rest of the league caught on.

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Laureano hitting 7th last year, sure steal and let the 8th or 9th hitter drive you in with a single. When moved up to the 2nd spot, steal in front of Chapman, Olson and Khrush is not the most ideal strategy.

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6 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Laureano hitting 7th last year, sure steal and let the 8th or 9th hitter drive you in with a single. When moved up to the 2nd spot, steal in front of Chapman, Olson and Khrush is not the most ideal strategy.


yeah this is something I hadn’t factored in.  It also may be a contributing factor to his success rate.  Pitchers are gonna be more confident just going after the batter when it’s the 8th/9th guy and not worrying about the runner as much especially with 2 outs.  When they know Chapman/olson are coming up they’re not gonna want laureano to take that base

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36 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

This guy is a dumb@ss and is probably going to be suspended 10-15 games

I disagree, get hit twice in the same game then have the batting coach taunt you how do you not do something 

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1 hour ago, Kramjam24 said:

I disagree, get hit twice in the same game then have the batting coach taunt you how do you not do something 

agree. especially a divsion rival like hou. and oak being the best team in baseball on huge win streak that was in the process of sweeping hou.

sucks but that was necessary. even though his attempt was pretty weak. it shouldnt be that long as he didnt throw any punches that i saw and was going after the hitting coach only. ha

Edited by colepenhagen
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Not a good look in times of Covid.  Justified or not, I'm nervous they'll come down hard on him to set an example.  

I'm also curious if MLB will listen to the audio to see exactly what set him off.  With no fans in the stands I would be surprised if they don't have access to everything that was said.  Not sure it'll matter, but I'm interested to know if this will factor in.  

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2 hours ago, TheGreatest42 said:

Not a good look in times of Covid.  Justified or not, I'm nervous they'll come down hard on him to set an example.  

I'm also curious if MLB will listen to the audio to see exactly what set him off.  With no fans in the stands I would be surprised if they don't have access to everything that was said.  Not sure it'll matter, but I'm interested to know if this will factor in.  

edit

 

meh. hes like 25, he has more of a chance dying in a bus crash than covid.  but the 2nd pitch looked like a bad breaking pitch.  not sure he shoulda charged, covid or not.

Edited by jfazz23

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