DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Do I believe run-blocking is one guy?  Um, no.  But we are still talking about one position, no?

Regardless of his contract details or landing spot, I don’t understand why you would consider the top lineman in FA to not be a difference-making player.  It just doesn’t make sense.


he could be...That’s what the Browns are hoping.  You pay players in FA for potential.  

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:


he could be...That’s what the Browns are hoping.  You pay players in FA for potential.  

And how do you measure potential?  Mainly by past performance.  Do you think the Browns were just bidding against themselves for his services and no other team wanted him?  

I’m still not following why it is you believe Conklin is not a difference-maker.  It’s certainly a contrarian viewpoint.

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25 minutes ago, BMcP said:

And how do you measure potential?  Mainly by past performance.  Do you think the Browns were just bidding against themselves for his services and no other team wanted him?  

I’m still not following why it is you believe Conklin is not a difference-maker.  It’s certainly a contrarian viewpoint.

 

Great stuff, would be well received in the Jack Conklin Season Outlook thread.

As it relates to Derrick Henrys outlook I think it was a no brainier to let Conklin go and use the money that would have been spent on him to try and help fill other needs on your team. Dennis Kelly had a decent year in 2018 as a backup, got positive grades in pass and run blocking when he had to fill in for Conklin, he was up and down in 2019 mostly due to Conklins resurgence from ACL injury and as @Impreza178 pointed out Kelly was playing multiple different positions, like filling in at LT for Taylor Lewans 4 game suspension and playing some Guard as well. Going into a new season as the starter at RT should do wonders for his confidence:

 

The big man now has an opportunity to claim the job on a permanent basis after reaching the deal the same day Jack Conklin, the team's starter on the right side the past four years, agreed to terms with the Cleveland Browns. In recent years, Kelly started games on both sides of the line, filling in for Conklin and Taylor Lewan, the starter on the left side. But he's been a back-up most of his career, always ready to step in when needed.

"You get in this game wanting to play, and hopefully everything works out where I can be the starter for a while now," Kelly said. "Obviously it was a weird situation with Jack and myself being free agents, and Jack having the big news for himself. They were pretty straightforward with me about how everything was going to play out, and they said if it ends up being me (who signs), it was going to be my spot.

"I have been working, and I am coming in, like I always have been, I am preparing like I am going to be the starter. That is what I am working for, and that is what I am going to be."

 

https://www.titansonline.com/news/titans-lineman-dennis-kelly-aka-the-undertaker-ready-to-claim-job-as-starting-ri

 

 "Why Kelly over Conklin? For one, one was significantly less expensive. The Titans saved themselves a decent chunk of cap space for a free-agency period in which they've been busy.

There's also continuity and familiarity in bringing back the 30-year-old Kelly.

"You always hear people talking about how the offensive line is all about chemistry and getting used to playing with each other," Kelly said. "As cliché as it sounds, that’s really the case."

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tennessean.com/amp/5063864002

 

Conklin is a good RT and it was good for him to go and chase the money in Cleveland but Tennessee signed a guy in Kelly who has experience with the group they have already and who Tennessee is confident can fill in at RT without the "difference maker dropoff" of losing Jack Conklin.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Great stuff, would be well received in the Jack Conklin Season Outlook thread.

As it relates to Derrick Henrys outlook I think it was a no brainier to let Conklin go and use the money that would have been spent on him to try and help fill other needs on your team. Dennis Kelly had a decent year in 2018 as a backup, got positive grades in pass and run blocking when he had to fill in for Conklin, he was up and down in 2019 mostly due to Conklins resurgence from ACL injury and as @Impreza178 pointed out Kelly was playing multiple different positions, like filling in at LT for Taylor Lewans 4 game suspension and playing some Guard as well. Going into a new season as the starter at RT should do wonders for his confidence:

 

The big man now has an opportunity to claim the job on a permanent basis after reaching the deal the same day Jack Conklin, the team's starter on the right side the past four years, agreed to terms with the Cleveland Browns. In recent years, Kelly started games on both sides of the line, filling in for Conklin and Taylor Lewan, the starter on the left side. But he's been a back-up most of his career, always ready to step in when needed.

"You get in this game wanting to play, and hopefully everything works out where I can be the starter for a while now," Kelly said. "Obviously it was a weird situation with Jack and myself being free agents, and Jack having the big news for himself. They were pretty straightforward with me about how everything was going to play out, and they said if it ends up being me (who signs), it was going to be my spot.

"I have been working, and I am coming in, like I always have been, I am preparing like I am going to be the starter. That is what I am working for, and that is what I am going to be."

 

https://www.titansonline.com/news/titans-lineman-dennis-kelly-aka-the-undertaker-ready-to-claim-job-as-starting-ri

 

 "Why Kelly over Conklin? For one, one was significantly less expensive. The Titans saved themselves a decent chunk of cap space for a free-agency period in which they've been busy.

There's also continuity and familiarity in bringing back the 30-year-old Kelly.

"You always hear people talking about how the offensive line is all about chemistry and getting used to playing with each other," Kelly said. "As cliché as it sounds, that’s really the case."

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tennessean.com/amp/5063864002

 

Conklin is a good RT and it was good for him to go and chase the money in Cleveland but Tennessee signed a guy in Kelly who has experience with the group they have already and who Tennessee is confident can fill in at RT without the "difference maker dropoff" of losing Jack Conklin.

 

 

 

Do I need to apologize for talking about the impact of the Titans’ losing their prized RT in FA on Derrick Henry in the Derrick Henry outlook thread?!

I wish all the best to Mr. Kelly - it’s definitely possible that he elevates his play after being given a full-time role.

I do appreciate the fact that you admitted Conklin was a difference-maker.  I still don’t understand why anyone would claim otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Do I need to apologize for talking about the impact of the Titans’ losing their prized RT in FA on Derrick Henry in the Derrick Henry outlook thread?!

I wish all the best to Mr. Kelly - it’s definitely possible that he elevates his play after being given a full-time role.

I do appreciate the fact that you admitted Conklin was a difference-maker.  I still don’t understand why anyone would claim otherwise.



it’s ok-  you don’t have to understand.    There’s plenty of upside but this is a guy who tore an ACL in 2018 and went back on IR in December for another knee issue.    He was solid when he played-   But so was Kelly playing 3 different spots.     
 

Fair to take either side of this debate imo

 

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:



it’s ok-  you don’t have to understand.    There’s plenty of upside but this is a guy who tore an ACL in 2018 and went back on IR in December for another knee issue.    He was solid when he played-   But so was Kelly playing 3 different spots.     
 

Fair to take either side of this debate imo

 

 

Why are we still talking about an injury Conklin suffered back under the Mike Mularkey regime? He played what amounted to a “prove-it” year after the team declined his option (a decision JR would likely want back in retrospect) and succeeded in rehabbing his value.  And promptly got paid a king’s ransom thereafter.  Calling him merely “solid when he played,” after he balled out for the entire 2019 season, is downright disingenuous.

Edited by BMcP

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12 hours ago, BMcP said:

You’re also saying he will do that all of that despite having worn down to the point he had to sit out a game late last season, his line is worse, he’s coming off of over 400 touches, and teams have had tons of time to dissect their surprise Tannehill offense from 2019.  And there’s no indication he will chip in any more as a pass-catcher.

 

Worn down to the point he had to miss a game last season?

 

Lol, he could have played if the game impacted their playoff seeding. 

 

Joe Mixon wore down and missed a game.

Leonard Fournette wore down and missed a game.

Dalvin Cook wore down and missed 2 games.

Saquon Barkley wore down and twisted his ankles and missed lots of games.

Alvin Kamara wore down and missed games last season.

 

You make it sound like Henry is being ridden so hard last year that he cant do it again this year? Zeke has had 3 300+ yard carry seasons and I don't hear talk of him being worn down and Henry is more durable than Zeke is. 

 

Can you explain to me this idea about teams getting film on Ryan Tannehill and so they will play defense different against him. What will this result in? Will they stack the box to try and stop Henry? I am pretty sure that has been tried before. Henry averaged over 4 yards after first contact last season. Even if defenses figure out Tannehill would that be worse than having Mariota at QB? I think not.

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Worn down to the point he had to miss a game last season?

 

Lol, he could have played if the game impacted their playoff seeding. 

 

Joe Mixon wore down and missed a game.

Leonard Fournette wore down and missed a game.

Dalvin Cook wore down and missed 2 games.

Saquon Barkley wore down and twisted his ankles and missed lots of games.

Alvin Kamara wore down and missed games last season.

 

You make it sound like Henry is being ridden so hard last year that he cant do it again this year? Zeke has had 3 300+ yard carry seasons and I don't hear talk of him being worn down and Henry is more durable than Zeke is. 

 

Can you explain to me this idea about teams getting film on Ryan Tannehill and so they will play defense different against him. What will this result in? Will they stack the box to try and stop Henry? I am pretty sure that has been tried before. Henry averaged over 4 yards after first contact last season. Even if defenses figure out Tannehill would that be worse than having Mariota at QB? I think not.

The Titans were still fighting for a WC berth when Henry sat out last year - so, they were not only fighting for seeding, they were fighting for their playoff lives....

Henry is “more durable” than Zeke?  Would you kindly cite the medicals?  It’s no secret that RBs coming off immense workloads generally don’t repeat their performance the following season.

Sure: quite the opposite, actually.  I expect teams to learn lessons from the Patriots’ defensive strategy - which started with not loading the box and stifling Tannehill’s PA pass attempts instead by loading up the secondary.

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12 hours ago, Stonej14 said:


that’s fine and I agree with you on the differences between Henry and kamara but I just want to express that you are banking on Henry breaking long runs which is seriously the hardest thing in the game.
If you wanna bank on that to get him to a top tier RB that’s fine but your banking on him to continue to do 2 of the hardest things in fantasy score TDs and break long runs. And you are essentially saying he will need to do both because he absolutely isn’t contributing much in the pass game. And I’m with you for the most part I think his TD floor is still high just not as high as you think. Man I hate talking about possible bad outcomes for this guy. 

 

We are just having a football discussion about different outcomes, no need to hate talking about it.

 

I bank on long runs from Henry the same as you bank on receptions from your PPR backs. It's an assumption on both our parts. You bank on your PPR backs getting you receptions cause why? Cause you have seen them do it before? Cause they have proven they can do it over multiple seasons? Same is true for me with Henry, I've watched him make 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 yard runs with regularity through high school, college, and now the NFL. Henry led the NFL in yards after first contact last season with over 4 yards. 

 

You say 2 of the hardest things to do in football is break long runs and score TDs but Henry has done it with regularity for the last 2 seasons he has been the starter and led the league in 20+ yard rushes. It's as easy for me to predict Henry to continue to bust long runs and TDs as it is to predict a RB not named McCaffrey to reach 60 or more receptions for 600 or more yards for back to back seasons.

 

Also, just nitpicking but when you say he contributes almost nothing in the passing game what does that mean exactly? He scored 60 fantasy points in the receiving category alone (catches, yards, and TDs). 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The Titans were still fighting for a WC berth when Henry sat out last year - so, they were not only fighting for seeding, they were fighting for their playoff lives....

Henry is “more durable” than Zeke?  Would you kindly cite the medicals?  It’s no secret that RBs coming off immense workloads generally don’t repeat their performance the following season.

Sure: quite the opposite, actually.  I expect teams to learn lessons from the Patriots’ defensive strategy - which started with not loading the box and stifling Tannehill’s PA pass attempts instead by loading up the secondary.

 

The game vs the Saints did not affect the Titans playoff scenario. They had to win their next divisional game to get in. That's the whole reason Henry decided to sit that game out. 

 

Zeke = 8 games missed in career

Henry = 2 games missed in his career

 

"Sure: quite the opposite, actually.  I expect teams to learn lessons from the Patriots’ defensive strategy - which started with not loading the box and stifling Tannehill’s PA pass attempts instead by loading up the secondary."

 

- Nice, and how did Henry end up doing in that game?

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

The game vs the Saints did not affect the Titans playoff scenario. They had to win their next divisional game to get in. That's the whole reason Henry decided to sit that game out. 

 

Zeke = 8 games missed in career

Henry = 2 games missed in his career

 

"Sure: quite the opposite, actually.  I expect teams to learn lessons from the Patriots’ defensive strategy - which started with not loading the box and stifling Tannehill’s PA pass attempts instead by loading up the secondary."

 

- Nice, and how did Henry end up doing in that game?

Umm...what game versus the Saints?  The Titans didn’t even play the Saints last year.

You do realize that Zeke has had much, much more work than Henry in the NFL, right?

I’ll gently remind you of how Henry’s performance suffers in games the Titans lose - if they lose more games next year, that almost assuredly means more games in which your RB1 will be hurting you next season.

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Umm...what game versus the Saints?  The Titans didn’t even play the Saints last year.

You do realize that Zeke has had much, much more work than Henry in the NFL, right?

I’ll gently remind you of how Henry’s performance suffers in games the Titans lose - if they lose more games next year, that almost assuredly means more games in which your RB1 will be hurting you next season.

Tennessee Titans Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry is inactive for Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints because of a hamstring injury.

Henry is expected to return for next Sunday's regular-season finale against the Texans, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter. Tennessee will be vying for a playoff spot next Sunday, no matter what happens in Week 16 against the Saints.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28350845/titans-star-rb-derrick-henry-hamstring-inactive-saints

 

You having a tough day today? Usually you would google these things yourself.

 

I'll gently remind you that Henry finished ahead of Zeke in fantasy despite playing 1 less game in 2019.

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5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Tennessee Titans Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry is inactive for Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints because of a hamstring injury.

Henry is expected to return for next Sunday's regular-season finale against the Texans, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter. Tennessee will be vying for a playoff spot next Sunday, no matter what happens in Week 16 against the Saints.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28350845/titans-star-rb-derrick-henry-hamstring-inactive-saints

 

You having a tough day today? Usually you would google these things yourself.

 

I'll gently remind you that Henry finished ahead of Zeke in fantasy despite playing 1 less game in 2019.

Are you telling me Pro Football Reference is wrong?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HenrDe00/gamelog/2019/

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yes, that's what I'm telling you

p4cPrrL.jpg.cf.jpg

Wow, you’re right - someone should alert them.  I promise I Googled this in advance!

Did you Google whether the Titans had anything to play for during that week?

P.S.  Yes, everyone knows Henry had an awesome 2019.  We are trying to focus on what to expect in 2020.  Comparing him to Zeke Elliott, by your own admission, seems pointless - but if you insist, it illustrates how even a slight downturn in TDs can affect a player’s fantasy value.

Edited by BMcP

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Why are we still talking about an injury Conklin suffered back under the Mike Mularkey regime? He played what amounted to a “prove-it” year after the team declined his option (a decision JR would likely want back in retrospect) and succeeded in rehabbing his value.  And promptly got paid a king’s ransom thereafter.  Calling him merely “solid when he played,” after he balled out for the entire 2019 season, is downright disingenuous.

Balled out....lol
didn’t even qualify as a top 25 O lineman according to your fave site PFF.  

Only their center Ben Jones did.  You have a lot of love for Conklin.  
 

 

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Wow, you’re right - someone should alert them.  I promise I Googled this in advance!

Did you Google whether the Titans had anything to play for during that week?

 

Nah, I didn't google that. I knew that from watching the game last year. I guess I watch more Titans games than you thought.

 

Regardless of the outcome of the Saints game the game the next week vs Houston would determine whether they made the playoffs over Pittsburgh.

 

Sorry to hear that your source for information on Henry was wrong. I wonder what else they have been wrong about that you may have posted here as truth? 🤔🤔🤔

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Balled out....lol
didn’t even qualify as a top 25 O lineman according to your fave site PFF.  

Only their center Ben Jones did.  You have a lot of love for Conklin.  
 

 

He suffered mainly due to his inadequate pass-blocking - he’s been a stud in run-blocking, which is why he has a major impact on Derrick Henry’s 2020 fantasy outlook.

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Nah, I didn't google that. I knew that from watching the game last year. I guess I watch more Titans games than you thought.

 

Regardless of the outcome of the Saints game the game the next week vs Houston would determine whether they made the playoffs over Pittsburgh.

 

Sorry to hear that your source for information on Henry was wrong. I wonder what else they have been wrong about that you may have posted here as truth? 🤔🤔🤔

Knew that jab was incoming - I again apologize for forgetting each and every opponent the Tennessee Titans faced last year by week.

At the time that game was played, the Titans were still on the outside looking in for the playoffs (Link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/nfl/2019/12/16/nfl-playoff-picture-2019-seeds-standings-week-15)

Dude, PFR is one of the most reliable and comprehensive sources on football out there on the Internet.  I’d recommend it if you haven’t already.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Knew that jab was incoming - I again apologize for forgetting each and every opponent the Tennessee Titans faced last year by week.

At the time that game was played, the Titans were still on the outside looking in for the playoffs (Link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/nfl/2019/12/16/nfl-playoff-picture-2019-seeds-standings-week-15)

Dude, PFR is one of the most reliable and comprehensive sources on football out there on the Internet.  I’d recommend it if you haven’t already.

 

Apology accepted. I forgot how many games Mariota started last year mostly because he disgusted me not because I looked at a website and blindly believed what they said so we all make mistakes, we are human after all.

 

The Titans were going to be on the outside of the playoffs looking in whether they beat the saints or not. It did not affect their playoff chances, if it had, Derrick would have played. Not sure what you are trying to get at with that game. It's the ONLY reason Henry sat it out because it had no impact on whether they make the playoffs or not.

 

Those sites are cool but not error free, as we have recently learned.

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5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Apology accepted. I forgot how many games Mariota started last year mostly because he disgusted me not because I looked at a website and blindly believed what they said so we all make mistakes, we are human after all.

 

The Titans were going to be on the outside of the playoffs looking in whether they beat the saints or not. It did not affect their playoff chances, if it had, Derrick would have played. Not sure what you are trying to get at with that game. It's the ONLY reason Henry sat it out because it had no impact on whether they make the playoffs or not.

 

Those sites are cool but not error free, as we have recently learned.

I stand humbly corrected - I think due to my misguided reliance on that mistaken PFR info on Week 16.  I thought that was an intra-conference game.  
 

Carry on.

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7 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I stand humbly corrected - I think due to my misguided reliance on that mistaken PFR info on Week 16.  I thought that was an intra-conference game.  
 

Carry on.

 

Your humbleness humbles me. Let's be humble together.

 

Back to Conklin. Hell of a run blocker.

 

What/if any difference does it make that Henry led the league with over 4 ypc after contact? Does that bode well for Kelly going into 2020? Did that bode well for Conklin in having such a stellar season? Or was it the other way around? Was Conklin's dominance responsible for Henry gaining over 4 yards after first contact? 

 

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8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Your humbleness humbles me. Let's be humble together.

 

Back to Conklin. Hell of a run blocker.

 

What/if any difference does it make that Henry led the league with over 4 ypc after contact? Does that bode well for Kelly going into 2020? Did that bode well for Conklin in having such a stellar season? Or was it the other way around? Was Conklin's dominance responsible for Henry gaining over 4 yards after first contact? 

 

Love it, first of all.  You’re one of my favorites, DHC!

Man, it’s very tough for me to say.  Like you, I just watch the games - I don’t purport to analyze every player in the league on a per-snap basis.

I do know Henry’s production largely suffered when Kelly was pressed into a starting role - both in 2018 and 2019.  Will that continue? As you say, time will tell.

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11 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Your humbleness humbles me. Let's be humble together.

 

Back to Conklin. Hell of a run blocker.

 

What/if any difference does it make that Henry led the league with over 4 ypc after contact? Does that bode well for Kelly going into 2020? Did that bode well for Conklin in having such a stellar season? Or was it the other way around? Was Conklin's dominance responsible for Henry gaining over 4 yards after first contact? 

 

Now we’re asking the right questions.   Was Conklins return the major factor...or was it Henry and a healthy dominant left side?   Some of each maybe.  
 

don’t know.   Wish they would have just kept JC and we wouldn’t have to speculate.   To my eyes...tannehill was the major difference. Nothing that team had done to date warranted playoff consideration.   I tend to think Conklin will go as Cleveland goes and the Tanny Titans win the division. 

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6 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Zeke = 8 games missed in career

Henry = 2 games missed in his career

 


isn’t all of Zeke’s missed games due to suspensions and not injuries tho? 
 

6 hours ago, BMcP said:

Wow, you’re right - someone should alert them.  I promise I Googled this in advance!


you me link isn’t  wrong it shows every game Henry played. He did not play against the saints so it shows him playing only 15 total games in 16 weeks. 
 

7 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I bank on long runs from Henry the same as you bank on receptions from your PPR backs. It's an assumption on both our parts. You bank on your PPR backs getting you receptions cause why? Cause you have seen them do it before? Cause they have proven they can do it over multiple seasons? Same is true for me with Henry, I've watched him make 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 yard runs with regularity through high school, college, and now the NFL. Henry led the NFL in yards after first contact last season with over 4 yards. 

 

You say 2 of the hardest things to do in football is break long runs and score TDs but Henry has done it with regularity for the last 2 seasons he has been the starter and led the league in 20+ yard rushes. It's as easy for me to predict Henry to continue to bust long runs and TDs as it is to predict a RB not named McCaffrey to reach 60 or more receptions for 600 or more yards for back to back seasons.

 

Also, just nitpicking but when you say he contributes almost nothing in the passing game what does that mean exactly? He scored 60 fantasy points in the receiving category alone (catches, yards, and TDs). 


I know there isn’t any reason to hate but Henry is one of my favorites players so talking possible bad outcomes for him is depressing.

yes most of us bank on receptions because they are easier to predict than long runs and TDs. Kamara has double digit TDs for 2 years then fell off but he got 81 receptions in all 3 years. Saqoun set league records for plays over 50 yards for a single Season then had less than half as many last season. Just because someone did it for 21 games doesn’t mean it will happen every single year. 

there are more backs getting 60 plus targets a season that rbs getting double digit TDs and more there are more RBs that repeat the 60 plus targets in multiple seasons than RBs getting double digit TDs. that’s why you can bank on targets and usually not long break away TDs. Not because you’ve seen them do it but because statistically it is easier to do for all RBs. 

Maybe Henry can be the outlier like LT was for the chargers. I hope he is I want to see him in the hall of fame and carry me to fantasy titles

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