DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


isn’t all of Zeke’s missed games due to suspensions and not injuries tho? 
 


you me link isn’t  wrong it shows every game Henry played. He did not play against the saints so it shows him playing only 15 total games in 16 weeks. 
 


I know there isn’t any reason to hate but Henry is one of my favorites players so talking possible bad outcomes for him is depressing.

yes most of us bank on receptions because they are easier to predict than long runs and TDs. Kamara has double digit TDs for 2 years then fell off but he got 81 receptions in all 3 years. Saqoun set league records for plays over 50 yards for a single Season then had less than half as many last season. Just because someone did it for 21 games doesn’t mean it will happen every single year. 

there are more backs getting 60 plus targets a season that rbs getting double digit TDs and more there are more RBs that repeat the 60 plus targets in multiple seasons than RBs getting double digit TDs. that’s why you can bank on targets and usually not long break away TDs. Not because you’ve seen them do it but because statistically it is easier to do for all RBs. 

Maybe Henry can be the outlier like LT was for the chargers. I hope he is I want to see him in the hall of fame and carry me to fantasy titles

Yes. He missed six games due to suspension.

 

How any of this relates to Henry’s effectiveness in 2020 remains in DHC’s hands to explain.

It remains a mystery to me.

Edited by BMcP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think losing Conklin is a little bit of a drag but overall they still do have two exceptional linemen in Saffold and Lewan, a competent passing game with Tannehill and a coach committed to giving the carries he needs to be successful.

Henry's definitely in the "safe RB1" circle, albeit maybe with some pressure to repeat or exceed last year's remarkable results. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Yes. He missed six games due to suspension.

 

How any of this relates to Henry’s effectiveness in 2020 remains in DHC’s hands to explain.

It remains a mystery to me.

 

Haha, it's not relevant, just got carried away throwing stats out. Zeke is durable, Henry is equally so. The point was Henry can handle an equally as heavy load as Zeke, 3+ seasons of 300+ touches. I probably got carried away trying to make that point. Now that the offense runs exclusively through Henry like it does with Zeke in Dallas since his rookie season I think you can expect similar results, not necessarily in the passing game just in how effective they will be for their teams as workhorse RBs. 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:


isn’t all of Zeke’s missed games due to suspensions and not injuries tho? 
 


you me link isn’t  wrong it shows every game Henry played. He did not play against the saints so it shows him playing only 15 total games in 16 weeks. 
 


I know there isn’t any reason to hate but Henry is one of my favorites players so talking possible bad outcomes for him is depressing.

yes most of us bank on receptions because they are easier to predict than long runs and TDs. Kamara has double digit TDs for 2 years then fell off but he got 81 receptions in all 3 years. Saqoun set league records for plays over 50 yards for a single Season then had less than half as many last season. Just because someone did it for 21 games doesn’t mean it will happen every single year. 

there are more backs getting 60 plus targets a season that rbs getting double digit TDs and more there are more RBs that repeat the 60 plus targets in multiple seasons than RBs getting double digit TDs. that’s why you can bank on targets and usually not long break away TDs. Not because you’ve seen them do it but because statistically it is easier to do for all RBs. 

Maybe Henry can be the outlier like LT was for the chargers. I hope he is I want to see him in the hall of fame and carry me to fantasy titles

 

All valid points. I appreciate you entertaining me with the discussions during the offseason.

 

It was difficult for me to watch Henry for 2 years under Mike Mularkey but I've enjoyed watching him start the last 2 seasons, he has really started to show everybody the kind of RB he really is

 

They released Dion Lewis, if he even gets to 25 or 30 receptions his is gonna be deadly in PPR.

 

Let's assume Titans take a late stab at a rookie pass catching RB. The offense will run through Henry and he will be the goaline back, soaking up almost every goaline rush. He has proven he can score from distance. The tape from Tannehill last season should have defenses taking a step back from the line of scrimmage which should benefit Henry more even if it limits Tannehills effectiveness. 2nd year for Henry and Tannehill with the same offensive coordinator. What is a fair estimate of how many TDs Henry will have?

 

These are the types of questions we need to know when thinking about drafting, even in PPR. In 2018 Henry scored a TD every 17 snaps. In 2019 Henry scored a TD every 18 snaps. In 2020 with nothing changing other than the RT what could be a reasonable expectation of TDs for Henry? 

 

Is 12 crazy to predict given the current makeup of the team? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First off gotta again give full credit to DHC for saying Henry was a stud when it got to the point where essentially everyone disagreed.

That said, you can't give him Zeke money. And no, I would not have given Zeke that much money either. The DJ, Gurley, and to a lesser extent MGIII situations all illustrate this so obviously. RB is one of the most interchangeable positions, and also the one that takes the most abuse. And while I realize we don't have a huge sample of guys Henry's size, my guess is him being so enormous along with the nature of the position, and you just don't have a recipe for prolonged success/production. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

First off gotta again give full credit to DHC for saying Henry was a stud when it got to the point where essentially everyone disagreed.

That said, you can't give him Zeke money. And no, I would not have given Zeke that much money either. The DJ, Gurley, and to a lesser extent MGIII situations all illustrate this so obviously. RB is one of the most interchangeable positions, and also the one that takes the most abuse. And while I realize we don't have a huge sample of guys Henry's size, my guess is him being so enormous along with the nature of the position, and you just don't have a recipe for prolonged success/production. 

 

Guess we better enjoy it while it lasts then. Lol. 🍻

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Titans RB Derrick Henry signed his $10.2 million franchise tender.

ESPN's Adam Schefter added that, "Two sides are still committed to working for a long-term extension before July 15." Either way, Henry is locked in as the Titans' bell-cow RB for 2020. The idea that Henry is game-script dependent isn't exactly true; he had at least 16 touches in every game last season. Still, his ceiling could actually be higher moving forward if the Titans don't find a viable replacement for scat back Dion Lewis. Henry won't be confused with Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler as far as receiving ability is concerned, but he's still averaged a healthy 10.1 yards per reception during his four-year career. More targets could be on the way in 2020.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Titans RB Derrick Henry signed his $10.2 million franchise tender.

ESPN's Adam Schefter added that, "Two sides are still committed to working for a long-term extension before July 15." Either way, Henry is locked in as the Titans' bell-cow RB for 2020. The idea that Henry is game-script dependent isn't exactly true; he had at least 16 touches in every game last season. Still, his ceiling could actually be higher moving forward if the Titans don't find a viable replacement for scat back Dion Lewis. Henry won't be confused with Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler as far as receiving ability is concerned, but he's still averaged a healthy 10.1 yards per reception during his four-year career. More targets could be on the way in 2020.

He loves Tennessee and the line. Sometimes it isnt about the money. But I expect Jon Robison to sign him to a long term before July 15.

Edited by cashvillesent

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All the talk in the media is about the big RB contracts and how they have failed. I've even seen Zeke in the mix, which is crazy considering it has only been 1 season and he played well last year. Zeke wasn't the issue with Dallas.

Gurley's contract was awful, but at the same time the entire offense was built around him. Without Gurley it looks lost. Unfortunately Gurley's health caught up with him otherwise the Rams would probably still be SB contenders.

David Johnson's contract is probably the most apt for the narrative of failed big contracts for RBs.

The Titans need Henry though. The team is built around him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, devaster said:

All the talk in the media is about the big RB contracts and how they have failed. I've even seen Zeke in the mix, which is crazy considering it has only been 1 season and he played well last year. Zeke wasn't the issue with Dallas.

Gurley's contract was awful, but at the same time the entire offense was built around him. Without Gurley it looks lost. Unfortunately Gurley's health caught up with him otherwise the Rams would probably still be SB contenders.

David Johnson's contract is probably the most apt for the narrative of failed big contracts for RBs.

The Titans need Henry though. The team is built around him.

 

The Gurley contract was kind of odd to me. Gurley had knee problems when he was in college and he has known for a while that he wasn't going to have as long as some other RBs to play in the NFL. If that info was out there while he was still at Georgia how could the Rams front office not know that? Some organizations just are not very smart.

 

Zeke's contract is fine, he is worth what he brings to the team.

 

The DJ contract was weird because he only had 1 truly breakout season before they gave him the big contract, then coaching change, broken wrist, and the rest is history.

 

Henry is only 26. He doesn't have chronic medical issues, is the ultimate team guy, and the offense is basically fit around him. I don't think Henry is greedy either. I think they can work out a 3-4 year deal at around 10 million per year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I wish MJD had provided some incisive analysis to support his claim.  In the meantime, I’ll side with those who have actually analyzed the pros and cons of big contracts for RBs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

The lesson is clear.

Von deserves more carries. 

He wears glasses, though - he’s kind of a nerd. 🤓

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just hope they continue to evolve with offensive concepts getting DH the ball. Get into some 4 WR sets, spread out the dime defense and let DH work into the flat...watch these pint sized package specific DBs try to tackle this moster, it is nearly guaranteed chunk yardage.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Or Henry deserves more sacks

3v9ztn.jpg

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I just hope they continue to evolve with offensive concepts getting DH the ball. Get into some 4 WR sets, spread out the dime defense and let DH work into the flat...watch these pint sized package specific DBs try to tackle this moster, it is nearly guaranteed chunk yardage.

 

Thanks for noticing this.

 

Hopefully Henry and Arthur Smith begin to evolve more with one another. Art Smith will be the only OC that Henry has had for back to back seasons. Even though the receptions were not there last season I think Arthur Smith was getting pretty creative with Henry. He let him throw the TD pass in the playoff game.

 

Mostly the release of Dion Lewis is the most significant. If the Titans only draft a RB late in the draft I think the plan would be to use Henry more in the receiving game. It would be hard for a rookie to take on a vast majority of the passing down snaps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I just hope they continue to evolve with offensive concepts getting DH the ball. Get into some 4 WR sets, spread out the dime defense and let DH work into the flat...watch these pint sized package specific DBs try to tackle this moster, it is nearly guaranteed chunk yardage.

Maybe - probably isn’t a good idea for winning a football game, however.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Thanks for noticing this.

 

Hopefully Henry and Arthur Smith begin to evolve more with one another. Art Smith will be the only OC that Henry has had for back to back seasons. Even though the receptions were not there last season I think Arthur Smith was getting pretty creative with Henry. He let him throw the TD pass in the playoff game.

 

Mostly the release of Dion Lewis is the most significant. If the Titans only draft a RB late in the draft I think the plan would be to use Henry more in the receiving game. It would be hard for a rookie to take on a vast majority of the passing down snaps.

They will either draft or sign a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I just hope they continue to evolve with offensive concepts getting DH the ball. Get into some 4 WR sets, spread out the dime defense and let DH work into the flat...watch these pint sized package specific DBs try to tackle this moster, it is nearly guaranteed chunk yardage.

 

while i love the way tannehill stepped up, i'm still looking for more henry wildcat!

qbtocdqo0igbamiqinwe

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.