DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

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7 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

25.5 guaranteed. 

 

Mostly 12.5 million per year if he plays it out.

 

Excellent stuff.


Excellent for him. For TEN...we’ll see. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:


Excellent for him. For TEN...we’ll see. 

RB contracts are tough. The only one I can think that truly worked anytime fairly recently is the Seahawks Lynch contract.

That being said, Henry's value to the Titans is the closest thing i've seen for a back since Lynch. He really is the identity of that offense WHILE they also have a good defense and decent enough QB that if the cards fall right who knows they can be a dark horse. Can't really say the same for like the Panthers for example where sure CMC is the offense but good luck when you have one of the bottom tier defenses in the league.

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4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Crazy how stupid his old coaches were. They got themselves fired over something as simple as just feeding the best runner in the NFL.

You strongly believe this narrative, and I'm not saying it's entirely untrue, but in my mind the main difference is that Henry had that conversation with Eddie George that convinced him 95% is not enough, and he need to run through some brick walls. Once he started doing that, there wasn't a coach in the world who wouldn't have played him.

I quoted it before, and I'm sure you have it on your wall somewhere between the memorabilia, but this is what Henry said himself:

Quote

"He shot me straight. It was what I needed to hear. He told me I needed to be more physical and finish runs, make the defense pay," Henry said. "He told me I could play better, and I wasn’t playing to my potential. It gave me a different outlook. The mindset, when I talked to Eddie, it was mind over matter. It's either going to be you or me and it ain't going to be me."

Right?

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15 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

You strongly believe this narrative, and I'm not saying it's entirely untrue, but in my mind the main difference is that Henry had that conversation with Eddie George that convinced him 95% is not enough, and he need to run through some brick walls. Once he started doing that, there wasn't a coach in the world who wouldn't have played him.

I quoted it before, and I'm sure you have it on your wall somewhere between the memorabilia, but this is what Henry said himself:

Right?

Yeah if you watch Henry tape from his first and second year he was absurdly inconsistent. Went down way too easily for a guy his size. He still got a solid YPC because in the open field he was always a problem to bring down but when not up to speed he'd go down like nothing. Last season especially it was nice to see him push for yards even in short yardage situations. Even if you look at his third season he got an opportunity early with back to back games of 18 carries in week 2 and 3. Problem was he barely got 3 YPC in each game. Maybe the coaches gave up on him too early and he beasted late in the season but acting like he was given NO opportunity isn't accurate.

Again, maybe it was unfair for the coaching staff to give the dude single digit carries after every game he did bad in but blaming it ALL on the coaching is a little much. He clearly has been a much better runner last couple seasons. 

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11 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Again, maybe it was unfair for the coaching staff to give the dude single digit carries after every game he did bad in but blaming it ALL on the coaching is a little much. He clearly has been a much better runner last couple seasons. 

Well the bit where I agree with DHC is that it seems that Henry gets more effective the more plays he gets, and the longer the season takes. Which makes sense for a strong back, he wears down defenses. All good.

But I think (as you also said) that the mindset was at least as important, and ignoring that is not correct (in my mind). 

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1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

Well the bit where I agree with DHC is that it seems that Henry gets more effective the more plays he gets, and the longer the season takes. Which makes sense for a strong back, he wears down defenses. All good.

But I think (as you also said) that the mindset was at least as important, and ignoring that is not correct (in my mind). 

So then why exactly were his third quarter stats the best last season in terms of YPC by a decent margin? More importantly, why did he have a better YPC in the second quarter than the fourth? In 2018 the second quarter was his best YPC (by far) followed by the third and then the fourth. 2017 was the only year he had his best YPC in the 4th. His rookie season it was his worst quarter in terms of YPC.

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41 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

So then why exactly were his third quarter stats the best last season in terms of YPC by a decent margin? More importantly, why did he have a better YPC in the second quarter than the fourth? In 2018 the second quarter was his best YPC (by far) followed by the third and then the fourth. 2017 was the only year he had his best YPC in the 4th. His rookie season it was his worst quarter in terms of YPC.

That data is all over the place. I agree it's hard to draw any conclusions from that.

image.png.09c0ca17d5654e7c482d0d059adecc73.png

On the other hand, here is every game plotted with on the x-axis the number of runs, and on the Y axis the y/c. You will see that in games where Henry has more runs, he is slightly more effective. And that after talking to Eddie George, he also increased his y/c a tick (but not as radical as I would like it to be to support my version of the story ;) )

image.png.94ce465616913847ac96a7981e3a8cf9.png

In any case, I guess it doesn't really support neither DHC's nor my story. Stats aren't everything after all.

 

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56 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

That data is all over the place. I agree it's hard to draw any conclusions from that.

image.png.09c0ca17d5654e7c482d0d059adecc73.png

On the other hand, here is every game plotted with on the x-axis the number of runs, and on the Y axis the y/c. You will see that in games where Henry has more runs, he is slightly more effective. And that after talking to Eddie George, he also increased his y/c a tick (but not as radical as I would like it to be to support my version of the story ;) )

image.png.94ce465616913847ac96a7981e3a8cf9.png

In any case, I guess it doesn't really support neither DHC's nor my story. Stats aren't everything after all.

 

Well exactly there’s zero link to him being better as the game goes on. It was just used as an excuse for years. The YPC increase on more carried also seems a stretch based on the data. There seems to be almost no correlation looking at the graph. You can easily argue a team is more likely to feed a guy if he’s gashing the defense as well to explain the minimal difference. 

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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

You strongly believe this narrative, and I'm not saying it's entirely untrue, but in my mind the main difference is that Henry had that conversation with Eddie George that convinced him 95% is not enough, and he need to run through some brick walls. Once he started doing that, there wasn't a coach in the world who wouldn't have played him.

I quoted it before, and I'm sure you have it on your wall somewhere between the memorabilia, but this is what Henry said himself:

Right?

 

Yes, because El Tractorcito was used to being the man since high school. 

 

Similar to what happens to all of us in real life. We might get discouraged with our roles because we are capable of so much more and so frustration sets in and you can get down on yourself and so Eddie George's pep talk, by Henrys own admission, did him a lot of good and let him know he had to be better than he had been if he wanted to stay in Tennessee. That is in fact exactly what happened. 

 

Henry was frustrated he was not being used as a workhorse back. That's his style of game and he can't get in a groove or break his long runs while alternating series with Demarco Murray or Dion Lewis.  Half of football is mental and Henry got down on himself because of his frustrating role in the offense and Eddie George helped him with some words of motivation but George was simply helping correct the problem the Titans coaches had created by trying to make Henry a change of pace back.

 

Mike Mularkey was going to retain his job in Tennessee except the front office/owner wanted him to make staff changes, like Terry Robiskie as his OC, to me that is a direct indictment on the way the front office felt the offense was managed.

 

Henry is being drafted alongside names like Zeke and Barkley who came into their teams as undisputed starting workhorse RBs. I get that Henry was helped by George, I think he needed that and he needed it cause his coaches had let his talents mostly rot away for the first 2 seasons. That would be frustrating to any HOF caliber talent and would take another HOF talent to talk to you, calm you down, and advise you how to work through it.

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Well exactly there’s zero link to him being better as the game goes on. It was just used as an excuse for years. The YPC increase on more carried also seems a stretch based on the data. There seems to be almost no correlation looking at the graph. You can easily argue a team is more likely to feed a guy if he’s gashing the defense as well to explain the minimal difference. 

 

The evidence is having watched his entire career.

 

Unless you think there is no validity in a 6'4 and 250lbs RB getting stronger as the game goes on and the defense has had to chase him and hit him for 3 quarters.

 

The year Kareem hunt won the rushing title only he had more 4th quarter yards than Henry did that season. That speaks volumes.

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Unless you think there is no validity in a 6'4 and 250lbs RB getting stronger as the game goes on and the defense has had to chase him and hit him for 3 quarters.

I like the story, but the data doesn't back up your story (see above). That makes me a bit cautious.

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6 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

That would be frustrating to any HOF caliber talent

But kudos for slipping HOF into the discussion ;)

3e042ba9f7d21a93965287446149bba8.gif

Very sneaky 😛

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Just now, Boudewijn said:

I like the story, but the data doesn't back up your story (see above). That makes me a bit cautious.

 

I use my eyes. Not charts.

 

Those charts aren't gonna tell you how Henry was sprinkled in as a change of pace back or how he was brought in on obvious rushing plays and no passing plays so the plays were telegraphed to the defense or how he alternated series or anything like that. 

 

That's precisely why graphs can and are misleading. They lack a huge amount of context.

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4 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I like the story, but the data doesn't back up your story (see above). That makes me a bit cautious.

 

Im sure you like your charts but the data is out of context and does not take all mitigating factors into account.

 

Where is the bar graph for coaching ineptness?

 

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2 hours ago, cashvillesent said:

Tennessee got a discount with this contract. He deserved much more

 

Chris Johnson got more, like 10 years ago.

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14 minutes ago, itslarry said:

Chris Johnson got more, like 10 years ago.

 

Shows how de-valued the RB position has become since that time. 9 years of watching RBs including CJ2k not living up to their big contracts has shrunk the payday for RBs overall.

 

Ultimately anyone that knows Henry would not be surprised by this move. Henry is the ultimate team player, he is not selfish and it is not suprising at all to see him take a deal that might help the team more than it helps himself. He is a complete team player in every sense of the word. 

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Even though I’m beyond tired of circling back to this “incompetent coaching” topic (BTW: for anyone interested in reading more, consult past years’ player threads for endless volumes of discussion on the subject), the fact remains that, just prior to Mularkey’s departure, he was unquestionably using Henry as a true, bona fide workhorse down the playoff stretch of that season - with mixed but mostly good results.  Henry was receiving more work per game than just about any RB of the current era.  So arguing that Mularkey’s utilization of him was somehow incompetent - assuming he would use the same approach entering the following season - and directly led to his departure seems rather misleading.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Even though I’m beyond tired of circling back to this “incompetent coaching” topic (BTW: for anyone interested in reading more, consult past years’ player threads for endless volumes of discussion on the subject), the fact remains that, just prior to Mularkey’s departure, he was unquestionably using Henry as a true, bona fide workhorse down the playoff stretch of that season - with mixed but mostly good results.  Henry was receiving more work per game than just about any RB of the current era.  So arguing that Mularkey’s utilization of him was somehow incompetent - assuming he would use the same approach entering the following season - and directly led to his departure seems rather misleading.

 

Direct departure was due to Mularkey not committing to making coaching staff changes. Meaning fire Terry Robiskie the OC and others, which is a direct indictment of how the front office viewed the offensive approach under said coaches.

 

At the very end of the season Mularkey was forced to play Henry. What did Henry do? He got Mularkey into the playoffs, and even won him a playoff game on the road in KC.

 

The coaches were in fact fired due to ineptness. Henry gave Mularkey the best chance to save his job when he destroyed KC on the road in the playoffs and Mularkey fell on his sword for Terry Robiskie instead and got fired.

 

"

Clearly, he was wrong. Mularkey must have been very unwilling or unable to change his offense to better suit the players in a way that Robinson felt would be best.

The recurring theme in the above quotes concerns maximizing the players’ skills and doing what’s best for the team moving forward.

Jon Robinson apparently saw the same things that we all saw watching this team play. Screens to Eric Decker with Corey Davis blocking, Taywan Taylor lining up at right tackle, the constant use of condensed formations with vertical, long-developing routes (as opposed to using the full width of the field to create space), the lack of no-huddle and red-zone passing despite having a very proficient no-huddle and red-zone passer... I could go on and on.

Robinson made it clear that, while winning a playoff game was a great accomplishment, it’s not indicative of future success unless drastic changes were made. Robinson showed a truly admirable trait in a general manager in that he clearly values the process over the results."

 

 

 

Why do head coaches and OC's get fired and go back to being positional TE coaches? Not cause they were inept?

 

Titans have done better since he has been gone.

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Posted (edited)

As I said, not getting back into this with you.  I do agree (and have agreed) that it was his intransigence in the face of requests to shake up his assistant coaching staff that led to a parting of the ways (Note: Mularkey was never “fired,” a point that eludes your grasp to this day.).  You act as if the above explanation includes direct quotes from Jon Robinson or something as opposed to just reflecting the opinion of a fan-commentator.  You also act as if Mularkey had “no choice” but to run Henry into the ground - he certainly did not have to do that: he could have opted for more of an aerial attack, or decided to mix in other backs on the roster more often if he felt so adamantly opposed to exposing Henry’s greatness.  By your definition of “competent” coaching, the only competent one he’s had so far is Arthur Smith.  That’s it.  The one coach who allowed him to run free for the entirety of a season.  That’s a whole heck of a lot of “incompetency” in my view.

Edited by BMcP

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19 hours ago, joshua18 said:


Excellent for him. For TEN...we’ll see. 

As long as Henry doesn't get injured this year its a good contract for both sides. Ten was going to have to pay around 25 mil next two years if they franchise him.  They have an out in 2 years and keep the franchise tag for another player if needed.

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11 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

The evidence is having watched his entire career.

Yes the best evidence is DerrickHenrysCleats, the least bias Derrick Henry observer, watching Derrick Henry.

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34 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yes the best evidence is DerrickHenrysCleats, the least bias Derrick Henry observer, watching Derrick Henry.

 

Same with you and metcalf, huh?

 

Can't be a fan and have an objective opinion?

 

The long game has proven me correct.

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