DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

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8 hours ago, sSektor said:


They could draft a somewhat competent replacement this year. It really depends on how much they give their QB of the future (assuming Tannehill), whether they decide to pick up Corey Davis 5th year option, and if they value defensive/o-line improvements more than Henry. Titans do have the benefit of what looks to be an emerging stud WR on a rookie contract in AJB so they can reasonably fit Henry with a big contract into the cap.

 

I will never understand why they gave Humphries 7 million a year to do next to nothing though.

Humphries is a good sign, but he was banged up majority of the time this year.

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On 2/3/2020 at 1:17 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

Dont like him. Will end up being a top ten pick, his running style lets defenders tee up on him and he has zero to no pass game involvement. If he doesnt get a td which fluctuates yearly, you are basically looking at a dud weak.  

Pass.

I would rather have chubb, zeke, kamara, barkely, and possibly fournette who is basically the same guy who actually catches passes.

There will be lots of people that don't like Henry again this year. That is fine but if everything goes as it should, which is not always the case in fantasy, Henry will be pushing for a top 5 RB finish once again in 2020 (Assuming he signs with TEN, isn't franchised and doesn't hold out). I guess it depends if you want to draft a top 5 RB? Henry set records this year when team were trying to stop him specifically. He can score from anywhere on the field. 

 

As for his running style and getting "tee'd up" I think you may be mistaken.  He's exceptionally fast for his size, has longer arms than most defenders which lets him shed blocks and stiff arm wanna be tacklers.  If you want to say that RB is a position that is susceptible to getting hurt that would be fair but if you watched Henry this year defenders would rather not hit and tackle this guy. Henry is usually the guy trucking people and running them over.

 

As for his drafted position everyone will have their preference on who they want to draft and Henry might not be one of your top RBs. But if Henry is sitting there at a spot where you should reasonably take him (for your league/settings etc.) and you pass him up because of some strange bias, that is on you.  Henry BEASTED this year, he set NFL records for rushing yards in consecutive games and these teams went in to the game trying to stop him.

 

The thing I like about Henry is that he can bust a 60+ yard run at any given time, but he is also the guy at the goal line, getting the goal line carries.  Henry even threw a TD pass in the red zone. You don't think TEN will continue to find ways to use their best offensive threat?

Henry was #2 RB in Standard scoring and #5 in PPR. Don't let him slip by you if he's there in a place where you should pick him.

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Now for Henry's contract situation:

At first glance the comment about Zeke's contract as a floor is a bit shocking.  Then it goes on to say that Henry misunderstood the initial question and said his agent will do the talking.  So being paid near the top of the RBs contract/structure is likely the goal (not really shocking considering the short shelf life of RBs) Henry did go on to say he wants to stay with TEN and I'm pretty sure the feeling is mutual.

 

As long as Henry's expectations aren't way out there I assume a deal will get done. I also think TEN is still the best place for Henry as they are finally understanding how to use him and he's getting comfortable with the O-line, QB and offense.  Nothing is guaranteed if he goes somewhere else.  As an owner of Henry in a Dynasty and a keeper league a move to a new team would have to be re-evaluated if it came to that. I wouldn't be a fan.

By the end of last year I was starting to get some insane trade offers for Henry from people wanting to make a playoff run but I was in my own run and didn't want to give him up.  I'm a Henry lifer. Having said that his value is probably the highest it will be and if your stacked at RB and need a big ticket player now might be the time to trade him.  Just don't complain when he trucks you for 200 yards and 3 TDs when you go against him.

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Henry should be drafted as a RB1 in PPR, but he definitely comes with risks.  For example:

The next cause for concern is that Henry vastly overperformed expectations in 2019. He came in 15th among running backs in ESPN’s opportunity-adjusted fantasy points metric, which attempts to “strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.” Essentially, it’s how many points a player should have scored given the kind of carries, snaps, targets, and other opportunities they received throughout the season. Henry scored 81 more points than his opportunities suggested he should have, which was the largest overachievement among running backs by far. That could be read two ways: If you’re a Henry believer, it just proves that he does more with his opportunities than anyone else in football. If you’re a little more skeptical, his overachievement indicates a coming regression to the mean in 2020.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/23/21077730/derrick-henry-tennessee-titans-fantasy-football-draft-outlook

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If he stays with the Titans he should arguably go #2 or 3 overall. Zeke and Saquon have question marks with the coaching changes that could reasonably lead you to draft Henry over them. CMC gets too much passing work for there to even be an argument against him. Kamara is probably safe and is due for positive TD regression.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Henry should be drafted as a RB1 in PPR, but he definitely comes with risks.  For example:

The next cause for concern is that Henry vastly overperformed expectations in 2019. He came in 15th among running backs in ESPN’s opportunity-adjusted fantasy points metric, which attempts to “strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.” Essentially, it’s how many points a player should have scored given the kind of carries, snaps, targets, and other opportunities they received throughout the season. Henry scored 81 more points than his opportunities suggested he should have, which was the largest overachievement among running backs by far. That could be read two ways: If you’re a Henry believer, it just proves that he does more with his opportunities than anyone else in football. If you’re a little more skeptical, his overachievement indicates a coming regression to the mean in 2020.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/23/21077730/derrick-henry-tennessee-titans-fantasy-football-draft-outlook

Those are some good points that should be taken into account. Stats are great, analytics are great, but one also has to take into account many other factors include the team/offense and play calls/usage.  Then when you go back and watch the tape and realize Henry is a beast and does things no other RB can do due to his size and speed, the "overachievement" statement might not be correct.

 

I don't for a second believe it is overachieving. He's just better than most RBs because those other RBs can't do what he can do.

Edited by Big Nate

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Henry should be drafted as a RB1 in PPR, but he definitely comes with risks.  For example:

The next cause for concern is that Henry vastly overperformed expectations in 2019. He came in 15th among running backs in ESPN’s opportunity-adjusted fantasy points metric, which attempts to “strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.” Essentially, it’s how many points a player should have scored given the kind of carries, snaps, targets, and other opportunities they received throughout the season. Henry scored 81 more points than his opportunities suggested he should have, which was the largest overachievement among running backs by far. That could be read two ways: If you’re a Henry believer, it just proves that he does more with his opportunities than anyone else in football. If you’re a little more skeptical, his overachievement indicates a coming regression to the mean in 2020.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/23/21077730/derrick-henry-tennessee-titans-fantasy-football-draft-outlook

 

Oh the old Opportunity Adjusted Fantasy Points Metric. 

 

Seems legit.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Oh the old Opportunity Adjusted Fantasy Points Metric. 

 

Seems legit.

It’s a stat brought to you by Mike Clay, one of the most respected analysts in the industry.  Is aDOT legit in your mind?

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On 2/4/2020 at 4:56 PM, Big Nate said:

There will be lots of people that don't like Henry again this year. That is fine but if everything goes as it should, which is not always the case in fantasy, Henry will be pushing for a top 5 RB finish once again in 2020 (Assuming he signs with TEN, isn't franchised and doesn't hold out). I guess it depends if you want to draft a top 5 RB? Henry set records this year when team were trying to stop him specifically. He can score from anywhere on the field. 

 

As for his running style and getting "tee'd up" I think you may be mistaken.  He's exceptionally fast for his size, has longer arms than most defenders which lets him shed blocks and stiff arm wanna be tacklers.  If you want to say that RB is a position that is susceptible to getting hurt that would be fair but if you watched Henry this year defenders would rather not hit and tackle this guy. Henry is usually the guy trucking people and running them over.

 

As for his drafted position everyone will have their preference on who they want to draft and Henry might not be one of your top RBs. But if Henry is sitting there at a spot where you should reasonably take him (for your league/settings etc.) and you pass him up because of some strange bias, that is on you.  Henry BEASTED this year, he set NFL records for rushing yards in consecutive games and these teams went in to the game trying to stop him.

 

The thing I like about Henry is that he can bust a 60+ yard run at any given time, but he is also the guy at the goal line, getting the goal line carries.  Henry even threw a TD pass in the red zone. You don't think TEN will continue to find ways to use their best offensive threat?

Henry was #2 RB in Standard scoring and #5 in PPR. Don't let him slip by you if he's there in a place where you should pick him.

This seems more like a love fest reminiscing of 2019 performance than looking at the future and probabilities of 2020. I don't have a strange bias, but he HAS NO role in the pass game, 18 catches is pathetic and disastrous in ppr.

So now it comes down to yards and tds okay:

I will give him 300 carries at 4.8 yard per carry (his career average) = 1400 yards

1,400 yard rushing 

200 yards receiving

20 catches

Tds are very hard to predict, but I will give him 12 total tds.

160 pts for yards, 20 for ppr catches, 72 for tds. 

That is about 281 points and I think I went high on his tds, but that being said if he is not getting a TD you are scrwd on that week. You need a guy in FULL ppr that is going to get you a solid 10 points as a floor, I think he is going to be a boom or bust weekly player, not someone who you can rely on. Now its a completely different ball game in standard. 

 

Take a guy like Fournette

280 carries at 4 yards per = 1120

50 catches at 7.5 yards per = 375

10 tds

Tds for Fournette was incredibly out of the ordinary compared with other years, he basically got ,until 2019, was about 67% of a td per game. I will give him 11ish totals tds if he plays 16 games. 

 

150 pts for yards, 50 for catches, and 66 pts for tds. 

266 points.

 

So yes in total points henry wins, but I would rather have the consistency of Fournette on a weekly basis in the passing game. Also, I was probably a bit conservative on Fournettes passing catch totals since he got 72 in 2019. This is all conjecture though, but Henry passing game uselessness is something I want NO part of in PPR.

 

Edited by nmartinez12443
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19 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

This seems more like a love fest reminiscing of 2019 performance than looking at the future and probabilities of 2020. I don't have a strange bias, but he HAS NO role in the pass game, 18 catches is pathetic and disastrous in ppr.

So now it comes down to yards and tds okay:

I will give him 300 carries at 4.8 yard per carry (his career average) = 1400 yards

1,400 yard rushing 

200 yards receiving

20 catches

Tds are very hard to predict, but I will give him 12 total tds.

160 pts for yards, 20 for ppr catches, 72 for tds. 

That is about 281 points and I think I went high on his tds, but that being said if he is not getting a TD you are scrwd on that week. You need a guy in FULL ppr that is going to get you a solid 10 points as a floor, I think he is going to be a boom or bust weekly player, not someone who you can rely on. Now its a completely different ball game in standard. 

 

Take a guy like Fournette

280 carries at 4 yards per = 1120

50 catches at 7.5 yards per = 375

10 tds

Tds for Fournette was incredibly out of the ordinary compared with other years, he basically got ,until 2019, was about 67% of a td per game. I will give him 11ish totals tds if he plays 16 games. 

 

150 pts for yards, 50 for catches, and 66 pts for tds. 

266 points.

 

So yes in total points henry wins, but I would rather have the consistency of Fournette on a weekly basis in the passing game. Also, I was probably a bit conservative on Fournettes passing catch totals since he got 72 in 2019. This is all conjecture though, but Henry passing game uselessness is something I want NO part of in PPR.

 

 

Lol@ 12 TDs. Massive regression your predicting for the leagues leading rusher last year to fit your argument.

 

So you have him regressing in rushing yards and TDs. That's what detractors do even when there is nothing to indicate said regression other than your opinion.

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Lol@ 12 TDs. Massive regression your predicting for the leagues leading rusher last year to fit your argument.

 

So you have him regressing in rushing yards and TDs. That's what detractors do even when there is nothing to indicate said regression other than your opinion.

Why LOL?  He scored 12 rushing.  Unless you think the Titans are going to score at or around the same rate next year, he’s probably going to face some more negative game-script and score fewer TDs.  Even if you believe he remains healthy all season.

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50 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Lol@ 12 TDs. Massive regression your predicting for the leagues leading rusher last year to fit your argument.

 

So you have him regressing in rushing yards and TDs. That's what detractors do even when there is nothing to indicate said regression other than your opinion.

LOL at you for thinking getting 12 rushing tds is the norm, especially in a passing league. On top of that most high rushing leaders are often on high powerful offenses or top 5 defenses which Tenn is not.  We all know he is NOT getting many receiving tds.

Leaders in rushing tds by year

2019- Aaron Jones/Henry 19 rushing tds.

2018- Gurley 17 - Great Off

2017- Gurley 13- Great Off

2016- Blount 18- Great Off

2015- Freeman 11 along with 4 others- Great Off

2014- Lynch  13- Top 3 def

2013-- Charles- 12- Great Off

2012- Foster 15- Top 8 Off

 

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7 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

LOL at you for thinking getting 12 rushing tds is the norm, especially in a passing league. On top of that most high rushing leaders are often on high powerful offenses or top 5 defenses which Tenn is not.  We all know he is NOT getting many receiving tds.

Leaders in rushing tds by year

2019- Aaron Jones/Henry 19 rushing tds.

2018- Gurley 17 - Great Off

2017- Gurley 13- Great Off

2016- Blount 18- Great Off

2015- Freeman 11 along with 4 others- Great Off

2014- Lynch  13- Top 3 def

2013-- Charles- 12- Great Off

2012- Foster 15- Top 8 Off

 

 

19 TDs?

 

Impressive.

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9 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

LOL at you for thinking getting 12 rushing tds is the norm, especially in a passing league. On top of that most high rushing leaders are often on high powerful offenses or top 5 defenses which Tenn is not.  We all know he is NOT getting many receiving tds.

Leaders in rushing tds by year

2019- Aaron Jones/Henry 19 rushing tds.

2018- Gurley 17 - Great Off

2017- Gurley 13- Great Off

2016- Blount 18- Great Off

2015- Freeman 11 along with 4 others- Great Off

2014- Lynch  13- Top 3 def

2013-- Charles- 12- Great Off

2012- Foster 15- Top 8 Off

 

They ranked sixth in offensive DVOA in 2019.  And that was with Tannehill only showing up mid-season.  I don’t understand the knock on their offense.

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I think it's erroneous to say he HAS to score a TD every week or you're "screwed." 

 

With his yardage and minimal passing game work alone he's hovering right around double digit points every week without TD(s). You won't take that, knowing that he could go for 200 yards and/or 2 TDs on any given Sunday?


 

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21 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

I think it's erroneous to say he HAS to score a TD every week or you're "screwed." 

 

With his yardage and minimal passing game work alone he's hovering right around double digit points every week without TD(s). You won't take that, knowing that he could go for 200 yards and/or 2 TDs on any given Sunday?


 

Minimal? 18 total catches that is basically 1 per game, so yes non existent.  Sure I like the idea that he can go for 200 and or 2 tds, but so can Kamara, CMC, Zeke, Cook, Chubb (without hunt), Mixon, etc. You are banking on a td with Henry and you need to use a top 12 pick on him not worth it in full ppr, tds are too hard to predict. I don't have the stats on it, but I think Henry is the only top 5 back EVER to have less than 20 catches, but I am not banking on a 20 td season. 

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35 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Minimal? 18 total catches that is basically 1 per game, so yes non existent.  Sure I like the idea that he can go for 200 and or 2 tds, but so can Kamara, CMC, Zeke, Cook, Chubb (without hunt), Mixon, etc. You are banking on a td with Henry and you need to use a top 12 pick on him not worth it in full ppr, tds are too hard to predict. I don't have the stats on it, but I think Henry is the only top 5 back EVER to have less than 20 catches, but I am not banking on a 20 td season. 

Henry’s PPR totals in non-TD-scoring games this past season:
11.8

4.3

9.3

8.6

22+
 

I don’t really see this being as much of a problem as you’re making it out to be.  Only one of those weeks would’ve hurt you.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Minimal? 18 total catches that is basically 1 per game, so yes non existent.  Sure I like the idea that he can go for 200 and or 2 tds, but so can Kamara, CMC, Zeke, Cook, Chubb (without hunt), Mixon, etc. You are banking on a td with Henry and you need to use a top 12 pick on him not worth it in full ppr, tds are too hard to predict. I don't have the stats on it, but I think Henry is the only top 5 back EVER to have less than 20 catches, but I am not banking on a 20 td season. 

 

First, you can't call it "non-existent" when he does actually have an existent role that contributes *some* fantasy points basically every week. He only had three games last year where he failed to record a catch. In every other game he's giving you at least a little something. 

But the bigger thing here, and what you can't just gloss over, is that Henry's volume of carries and his consistently high YPC mean that he gives you 80+ rushing yards almost every week. You said it yourself you need a solid 10 points as a floor and Henry gets you there most weeks on rushing yardage plus his minimal passing game role alone. And that's basically his floor WITHOUT factoring in TDs (more on that in a bit) or any additional usage in the passing game. So I'll say it again, I think it's erroneous to say you're "banking" on a TD or you're "screwed." 

Even with some TD regression I don't see how his rushing yardage doesn't keep him in the RB1 conversation. If you took away HALF of Henry's rushing TDs (giving him 8 instead of 16) and changed none of his other numbers he'd have put up 246 points in full PPR, which would have made him the RB10 on the season this year, RB9 (tie) in 2018, and RB8 in 2017. Having said all that... RBs with Henry's workload, size, and speed (able to punch it in on the goal line and/or take it to the house from anywhere) are going to score TDs. Since the Titans committed to feeding him the ball towards the end of 2018, Henry has averaged over 1 rushing TD per game. It's not totally unpredictable. It's fair to say Henry will score a TD more often than he will not. And he can also score multiple TDs any given Sunday, something he's done 9 times since the midway point of 2018. 

McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Cook. and Kamara are all ranked, projected, and drafted (in early mocks) well ahead of Henry. If you have the option of getting one of them, by all means prioritize them over Henry. But once they are off the board I think you have a hard time arguing against Henry. He's a mid-to-late 1st rounder based on what we know now. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Minimal? 18 total catches that is basically 1 per game, so yes non existent.  

 

His receptions equaled 50 PPR points over the season. Hardly non existent. 

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18 hours ago, BMcP said:

Why LOL?  He scored 12 rushing.  Unless you think the Titans are going to score at or around the same rate next year, he’s probably going to face some more negative game-script and score fewer TDs.  Even if you believe he remains healthy all season.

 

Henry scored 12 TDs in 2018 when he was barely used for the first half of the season.  Henry easily gets 12 TDs next year if everything stays the same. 

 

 

19 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

This seems more like a love fest reminiscing of 2019 performance than looking at the future and probabilities of 2020. I don't have a strange bias, but he HAS NO role in the pass game, 18 catches is pathetic and disastrous in ppr.

 

Tds are very hard to predict, but I will give him 12 total tds.

 

So yes in total points henry wins

 

This is all conjecture though, but Henry passing game uselessness is something I want NO part of in PPR.

 

 

We see that you don't like Henry and are grasping for straws here. I appreciate the discussion and breakdown of the stats but the consistency is there. It was there when they used him full time at the end of 2018 and it was there for all of 2019. So now we have a season and a half to look at and there is no reason this can't continue going forward.

 

Did you already forget Henry spanking the great defensive minded Bilichek in a do or die playoff game that was held in NE?  NE knew they had to stop Henry and they couldn't. Most teams couldn't.  We get that you are dead set on the fact that Henry doesn't catch passes while ignoring the fact he was the 5th ranked RB in PPR last year. 

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2 hours ago, Big Nate said:

 

Henry scored 12 TDs in 2018 when he was barely used for the first half of the season.  Henry easily gets 12 TDs next year if everything stays the same. 

 

 

 

We see that you don't like Henry and are grasping for straws here. I appreciate the discussion and breakdown of the stats but the consistency is there. It was there when they used him full time at the end of 2018 and it was there for all of 2019. So now we have a season and a half to look at and there is no reason this can't continue going forward.

 

Did you already forget Henry spanking the great defensive minded Bilichek in a do or die playoff game that was held in NE?  NE knew they had to stop Henry and they couldn't. Most teams couldn't.  We get that you are dead set on the fact that Henry doesn't catch passes while ignoring the fact he was the 5th ranked RB in PPR last year. 

Belichick correctly allowed Henry to gash him in that game.  I wouldn’t use that as an indicator of future progress.

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I'm not very high on paying top dollar to a RB. The Titans are in a difficult spot here and I don't envy the the decision they are needing to make.

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