DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

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HOF RB Terrell Davis on Derrick Henry:

 

“Impressive, impressive, impressive,” Davis said of Henry. “I think what I am most astonished by … is the fact the guy is 6-3, 250 pounds and he has these traits – I’ve never seen anybody have more explosive plays for a guy that size. And when you watch him run, it is not like he is shaking and baking, but he has a great sense of awareness and he has a great football feel for running the ball. You just can’t teach that. He has a God-given sense for where bodies are, how to get through certain holes, patience, explosiveness, being able to get more than what a play is called for.

“And the thing about Derrick is he makes everybody around him better, from the o-line to the quarterback to the receivers. I know if I am going to battle with that guy, we have a chance every game.”

Finding the right way to hold on to Henry is one of the Titans’ most important tasks this offseason, and it will be interesting to see what the team does between the options of signing him to a multi-year deal or franchise tagging him.

 

 

Terrell Davis is right. For fantasy many leagues award bonus points for long explosive plays, 50+ yard and a TD gets bonus points etc,, so Henry pays off in a multitude of ways, his 1 screen pass for 75 yd TD was 14.5 points and since he averaged 80 rushing yards per game that's 22.5 points I that game alone. The explosive plays Henry can do rushing and receiving is what makes him so unique. Its incredible that he has so many detractors.

 

Going into 2020 he still has Lewan, Saffold, Conklin, Titans won't waste 4 games with Mariota at QB so I expect his per game average to go up, possibly to 100 rushing yards per game. His continuity with the coaching staff in place for a 2nd season will help him tremendously. Dion Lewis will not be retained. Titans will draft a backup RB and given he will be a rookie Henrys passing game useage will increase in my opinion. If the Titans can get him to 40 receptions he averages 10 yards per catch so he easily could make it to 400 receiving yards and 4 TDs. I still think he gets 16-18 rushing TDs with the same OLine coming back and depth being added via the draft, Tannehill as the starter, 2nd year with Arthur Smith calling plays, Dion Lewis gone meaning more receptions for Henry.

 

Non believers are welcome to pass on him but last season just about every week especially closer to the playoffs everyone would have wanted him over Zeke, Kamara, and almost everyone not named CMC.

 

Henry has pass catching chops, it's been shown in flashes but sometimes the best things take time. Lewis won't return this year, rookie RB won't take on a full time receiving role, Henrys receptions are going to increase this year and with his top 5 OL any increase in cathes will be the cherry on the top of his 100 rushing yard per game average.

 

Not So Bold Prediction:

 

1,600+ rushing yards 16-19 rushing TDs

 

40 receptions for 400+ yards and 4 TDs.

 

2,000+ all purpose yards and 20-24 TDs

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I would consider him as a top 3 fantasy pick assuming he's back in TN. The guy is a monster right now.

 

I just think from a football standpoint, it's a mistake to pay top dollar for a RB, but that's a separate discussion, I suppose.

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20 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

I would consider him as a top 3 fantasy pick assuming he's back in TN. The guy is a monster right now.

 

I just think from a football standpoint, it's a mistake to pay top dollar for a RB, but that's a separate discussion, I suppose.

 

In a bubble it is a mistake to pay top dollar for a RB but there are exceptions to every rule, guys like CMC, Barkley, and Henry have had their offenses built around them and they are exceptionally talented in their roles. Some RBs get paid and then don't do as well and it lends credence to the idea that you don't pay RBs top dollar, just like Zeke got paid and had an underwhelming year but I think Henry is a different kind of player. He loves his teammates and the game and I don't think the money will make him soft, Henry wants to go to battle with his guys and I don't think his play will drop off after he gets paid. It's true that it's not always smart to pay RBs top money but as I said before there are exceptions to that rule. You have to gauge a players work ethic, their willingness to want to be great, their willingness to want to give their teammates all they got every game. Henry is all of that, he is a selfless guy who loves his teammates, when you play for your teammates and not for yourself it shows a characteristic most HOfers exhibit, a willingness and a drive to never let your teammates down and always be willing to battle with them. Henry has these traits in spades. The money won't change him like it did to Zeke and does to many other guys.

 

I see the same traits in CMC and Barkley 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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7 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

In a bubble it is a mistake to pay top dollar for a RB but there are exceptions to every rule, guys like CMC, Barkley, and Henry have had their offenses built around them and they are exceptionally talented in their roles. Some RBs get paid and then don't do as well and it lends credence to the idea that you don't pay RBs top dollar, just like Zeke got paid and had an underwhelming year but I think Henry is a different kind of player. He loves his teammates and the game and I don't think the money will make him soft, Henry wants to go to battle with his guys and I don't think his play will drop off after he gets paid. It's true that it's not always smart to pay RBs top money but as I said before there are exceptions to that rule. You have to gauge a players work ethic, their willingness to want to be great, their willingness to want to give their teammates all they got every game. Henry is all of that, he is a selfless guy who loves his teammates, when you play for your teammates and not for yourself it shows a characteristic most HOfers exhibit, a willingness and a drive to never let your teammates down and always be willing to battle with them. Henry has these traits in spades. The money won't change him like it did to Zeke and does to many other guys.

 

I see the same traits in CMC and Barkley 

 

 

The examples you made are RBs that are on their rookie deals.

My opinion (and most successful NFL teams these days seem to agree) is that you don't pay for past performance to a RB. It's a position where the difference between lower paid RBs and the top ones is less than other positions.

It's a smarter business decision/football decision to get value from the RB position rather than pay top dollar to it.

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The smart football decision is to pay the key players that your team is built around and then hope you can continue to draft well. Ripping up the team or replacing key talent with patchwork talent isn't a recipe for success. Only one team has been able to run that model successfully and it is the Patriots. And the constant for all of those teams is Belichick and Brady. That isn't a model other teams can copy exactly.

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4 minutes ago, devaster said:

The smart football decision is to pay the key players that your team is built around and then hope you can continue to draft well. Ripping up the team or replacing key talent with patchwork talent isn't a recipe for success. Only one team has been able to run that model successfully and it is the Patriots. And the constant for all of those teams is Belichick and Brady. That isn't a model other teams can copy exactly.

 

No one said "rip up the team" or "replace with patchwork talent" so I'm not sure why you're trying to put those words into anyone's mouth?

Also, the Patriots are the only team whose philosophy isn't to set the market for RB contracts?

Haha got it.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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The Titans ABSOLUTELY need to give Henry what he wants so they can keep him otherwise they are nothing.

Edited by SyNdicateZ
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16 hours ago, BMcP said:

Belichick correctly allowed Henry to gash him in that game.  I wouldn’t use that as an indicator of future progress.

You sure? New England lost the game and they couldn't stop Henry. 

 

Everyone wrote off TEN in the playoffs. They wouldn't be able to beat NE in their own barn with how good NE's defense is. Henry rushes for 182 yards and a TD and carries TEN on his back to a win.

 

Then there is no way they beat BAL in their own barn with how good BAL D is. Henry rushes for 195 yards and even throws a TD pass, carrying the team on his back again.

 

NE and BAL had top rated defenses this year and were both playing at home. Henry trucked all over them.  While it has been talked about, what Henry did doesn't get enough credit IMO. 182 and 195 yards vs two of the top rated Ds in the league. We aren't talking a 100 yard rushing game - 182 and 195 yards!

 

I'm not saying he's the best RB in the league, but he still takes way too much flack considering what he did at the end of 2018, a full 2019 season as well as in the playoffs. Some historic numbers.

 

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37 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

The Titans ABSOLUTELY need to give Henry what he wants so they can keep him otherwise they are nothing.

They wouldn't have beat NE or BAL if they just had Lewis.

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31 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

You sure? New England lost the game and they couldn't stop Henry. 

 

Everyone wrote off TEN in the playoffs. They wouldn't be able to beat NE in their own barn with how good NE's defense is. Henry rushes for 182 yards and a TD and carries TEN on his back to a win.

 

Then there is no way they beat BAL in their own barn with how good BAL D is. Henry rushes for 195 yards and even throws a TD pass, carrying the team on his back again.

 

NE and BAL had top rated defenses this year and were both playing at home. Henry trucked all over them.  While it has been talked about, what Henry did doesn't get enough credit IMO. 182 and 195 yards vs two of the top rated Ds in the league. We aren't talking a 100 yard rushing game - 182 and 195 yards!

 

I'm not saying he's the best RB in the league, but he still takes way too much flack considering what he did at the end of 2018, a full 2019 season as well as in the playoffs. Some historic numbers.

 

 

Yes. If Edelman converts that 1st down instead of dropping the ball, or the Patriots actually moved the ball when they had possession, the Patriots would have won the game. It was a good strategy.

 

Saying they "couldn't stop Henry" means very little considering they didn't sell out to stop him.

No one is giving him "flack". The guy is an absolute monster and is a very, very good RB. But the Patriots game plan wasn't to stop Henry, it was to take away their big plays outside, which they did and held the TN offense to 14 points. The Patriots offense just didn't do their part.

Edited by ThreadKiller
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2 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Yes. If Edelman converts that 1st down instead of dropping the ball, or the Patriots actually moved the ball when they had possession, the Patriots would have won the game. It was a good strategy.

 

Saying they "couldn't stop Henry" means very little considering they didn't sell out to stop him.

No one is giving him "flack". The guy is an absolute monster and is a very, very good RB. But the Patriots game plan wasn't to stop Henry, it was to take away their big plays outside, which they did and held the TN offense to 14 points. The Patriots offense just didn't do their part.

That was the story of the pats all year. If they gave up more than 20 points they lost. The offense was crap all year. 

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

That was the story of the pats all year. If they gave up more than 20 points they lost. The offense was crap all year. 

 

No kidding.

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5 hours ago, Big Nate said:

They wouldn't have beat NE or BAL if they just had Lewis.

That’s my point.

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4 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Yes. If Edelman converts that 1st down instead of dropping the ball, or the Patriots actually moved the ball when they had possession, the Patriots would have won the game. It was a good strategy.

 

Saying they "couldn't stop Henry" means very little considering they didn't sell out to stop him.

No one is giving him "flack". The guy is an absolute monster and is a very, very good RB. But the Patriots game plan wasn't to stop Henry, it was to take away their big plays outside, which they did and held the TN offense to 14 points. The Patriots offense just didn't do their part.

I honestly think the pats literally couldn’t stop Henry. I saw guys missing tackles, ect. As far as I’m concerned, the Pats D was a FRAUD. They beat up on horrible offenses,  and bad quarterbacks. But couldn’t stop the better teams with better qb’s.

Edited by SyNdicateZ

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34 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

I honestly think the pats literally couldn’t stop Henry. I saw guys missing tackles, ect. As far as I’m concerned, the Pats D was a FRAUD. They beat up on horrible offenses,  and bad quarterbacks. But couldn’t stop the better teams with better qb’s.

The Pats D fared just fine against good teams: they allowed 28 to HOU and 37 to BAL, but otherwise held better offenses to at-or-below league average in total points throughout the season.

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On 2/7/2020 at 10:20 AM, ThreadKiller said:

 

 

The examples you made are RBs that are on their rookie deals.

My opinion (and most successful NFL teams these days seem to agree) is that you don't pay for past performance to a RB. It's a position where the difference between lower paid RBs and the top ones is less than other positions.

It's a smarter business decision/football decision to get value from the RB position rather than pay top dollar to it.

 

This is correct. 

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9 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Atlanta willing to cut Devonta Freeman, huh?

 

Dirty Bird Henry?

Be one of the worst case scenarios for him.  Pass first offense with a subpar line.  Moot point anyway.  He's not going any where.  No chance he doesn't get the franchise tag if a deal isn't struck.  I have never been a huge Henry lover in fantasy(this year that really hurt) but he is that offense.  They would have to be morons to let him walk.

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13 hours ago, youngrice said:

Be one of the worst case scenarios for him.  Pass first offense with a subpar line.  Moot point anyway.  He's not going any where.  No chance he doesn't get the franchise tag if a deal isn't struck.  I have never been a huge Henry lover in fantasy(this year that really hurt) but he is that offense.  They would have to be morons to let him walk.

 

They would also have to be morons to break the bank for him. It's a tough position to be in IMO.

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They will tag him and then try to work out something long-term.  It’s a bit silly to imagine they will just let him flee in FA.

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46 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

They would also have to be morons to break the bank for him. It's a tough position to be in IMO.

Agreed. Not really that tough of a position.  Especially this year.  No way he doesn't play for the franchise tag of around 14 mil.  

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29 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Agreed. Not really that tough of a position.  Especially this year.  No way he doesn't play for the franchise tag of around 14 mil.  

 

It's a tough position for TN to be in, because they need to keep him for the sake of their offense. With that said, they only need to keep him if the price is right.

He's their entire offense, so letting him go would hurt. If they overpay him to ensure that doesn't happen, that will hurt too. That's why it's a tough position to be in.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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2 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

It's a tough position for TN to be in, because they need to keep him for the sake of their offense. With that said, they only need to keep him if the price is right.

He's their entire offense, so letting him go would hurt. If they overpay him to ensure that doesn't happen, that will hurt too. That's why it's a tough position to be in.

Why would they have to let him go?? Franchise him guarantees he's not going anywhere.  Like I said before I just don't see Henry passing up 14 mill.  He wasn't a flashy first round pick getting big money.  The tag would basically be 3 times what he has made so far in his career.

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19 hours ago, youngrice said:

Why would they have to let him go?? Franchise him guarantees he's not going anywhere.  Like I said before I just don't see Henry passing up 14 mill.  He wasn't a flashy first round pick getting big money.  The tag would basically be 3 times what he has made so far in his career.

 

Where did I say they would have to let him go? I agree that tagging him would probably be the best move TN could make. Ensures that he stays in TN and avoid overpaying him long term. RBs just aren't worth that type of long term money/commitment IMO.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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