DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

I cannot wait until some of the people here trade Henry and face him later in the year when he drops 200 yards, 2 TDs lol

 

It's coming. The non believers will trade him this week or next week even though the King has played 2 games in 6 days.

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Not to be glib on this week's injury carnage....but the path to King Henry as the RB1 overall has never been more clear.

When the stock markets crash (like today!) people suddenly remember that return OF capital is exponentially more important than return ON capital.  It is only Week 2, but we're pretty much in that same spot with football.

 

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3 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

He's on pace for 1,600 rushing, 40 targets which is where I put him on before the season. 40 targets is 16 more targets than last season in 15 games.

^^^Exactly!^^^Well said.

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19 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

I cannot wait until some of the people here trade Henry and face him later in the year when he drops 200 yards, 2 TDs lol

Come on what a post you do know  dazedandconfused if you drafted Henry you ain’t trading him at this time unless you’re some kind of noob. 

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36 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

He's on pace for 1,600 rushing, 40 targets which is where I put him on before the season. 40 targets is 16 more targets than last season in 15 games.

He's also on pace for zero TDs. I get your point, but if he continues to be this inefficient it draws more attention to his liabilities in the passing game, and opens the door for Evans. So sure, he's gonna get some TDs, but these carries might move from 30 to 20, and with his YPC and non-existence in the passing game he very quickly becomes a low-end TD dependent RB2. 

Edited by BGDDYKWL

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15 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He's also on pace for zero TDs. I get your point, but if he continues to be this inefficient it draws more attention to his liabilities in the passing game, and opens the door for Evans. So sure, he's gonna get some TDs, but these carries might move from 30 to 20, and with his YPC and non-existence in the passing game he very quickly becomes a low-end TD dependent RB2. 

He is due for positive regression in TDs. Even if he gets 20 carries from now until the end of the season, he would have 33 more total carries than last season. Low-end RB2 loll

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19 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He's also on pace for zero TDs. I get your point, but if he continues to be this inefficient it draws more attention to his liabilities in the passing game, and opens the door for Evans. So sure, he's gonna get some TDs, but these carries might move from 30 to 20, and with his YPC and non-existence in the passing game he very quickly becomes a low-end TD dependent RB2. 

TDs are flukey. Yards are not.

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In almost every case if a player doesn't get at least one TD there will be someone complaining in their thread. It's honestly comical at this point. Solid game of 17/80/0 and 4/20/0? Doesn't look awesome on the fantasy app so who cares? WR put up 6/85/0? Going to go complain that they're a bust.

What the hell do people expect from their fantasy players? 20/120/1 every ******** week? 

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I’m trading him for Barber because Barber gets into the end zone....

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27 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He's also on pace for zero TDs. I get your point, but if he continues to be this inefficient it draws more attention to his liabilities in the passing game, and opens the door for Evans. So sure, he's gonna get some TDs, but these carries might move from 30 to 20, and with his YPC and non-existence in the passing game he very quickly becomes a low-end TD dependent RB2. 

 

It's good to have him over cmc and Barkley

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1 hour ago, jkendrick2 said:

For the 10th pick, you honestly got a steal. I took henry 4th in a 10 team ppr. Henry will have better games and has the 4th easiest strength of schedule for the playoffs.

 

LOL exact same boat man. I took Henry 4th overall in ppr over Zeke. I probably still do it today especially given the usage and ease of schedule. My only complaint if I have to is that he didn't catch any of the two targets yesterday. I didn't see the game so hopefully it wasn't his fault.

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38 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

He is due for positive regression in TDs. Even if he gets 20 carries from now until the end of the season, he would have 33 more total carries than last season. Low-end RB2 loll

Fournette had 350 touches last year and finished with 3 TDs. It's not impossible that he suffers serious TD regression from last year. 

He's the RB25 right now I believe, so yes, a low-end RB2 isn't out of the question. 

Evans has been hurt. If he proves to be capable Henry's touches will go down, meaning the TDs will HAVE to come. 

There's also the concern that with this type of workload he doesn't get better later in the year but actually breaks down. 

Edited by BGDDYKWL

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21 minutes ago, young dude said:

 

LOL exact same boat man. I took Henry 4th overall in ppr over Zeke. I probably still do it today especially given the usage and ease of schedule. My only complaint if I have to is that he didn't catch any of the two targets yesterday. I didn't see the game so hopefully it wasn't his fault.

 

I think Zeke will be healthy all year and thrive. Between Zeke and Henry, I have Zeke slightly ranked higher (in PPR) and probably the only player that I would of took before him......I hate to say it, but there are going to be alot of injuries and Henry is built like a tank. Easily the safest 1st round pick with tremendous upside.......I get it if someone wants to argue otherwise that another player would score more the ROS. 

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31 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

It's good to have him over cmc and Barkley

It is (although I'd still take CMC over him). But if the argument coming from the pro-Henry side is he's not as much of a bust as a guy who tore his ACL, we could be in trouble. Again, I'm not saying we are, but nothing's been encouraging thus far. 

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1 minute ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Fournette had 350 touches last year and finished with 3 TDs. It's not impossible that he suffers serious TD regression from last year. 

He's the RB25 right now I believe, so yes, a low-end RB2 isn't out of the question. 

Evans has been hurt. If he proves to be capable Henry's touches will go down, meaning the TDs will HAVE to come. 

There's also the concern that with this type of workload he doesn't get better later in the year but actually breaks down. 

You don't draft a RB based on past year's TD output, you draft based on their past/future workload, opportunity for growth(more carries/targets), and matchups throughout the season. It's been 2 fuking games, so going by your logic Josh Jacobs will finish with 48 TDs.

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10 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

It is (although I'd still take CMC over him). But if the argument coming from the pro-Henry side is he's not as much of a bust as a guy who tore his ACL, we could be in trouble. Again, I'm not saying we are, but nothing's been encouraging thus far. 

 

I'd rather not be without my RB1 for 4-6 weeks so Henry for me.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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14 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Fournette had 350 touches last year and finished with 3 TDs. It's not impossible that he suffers serious TD regression from last year. 

He's the RB25 right now I believe, so yes, a low-end RB2 isn't out of the question. 

Evans has been hurt. If he proves to be capable Henry's touches will go down, meaning the TDs will HAVE to come. 

There's also the concern that with this type of workload he doesn't get better later in the year but actually breaks down. 

 

Most of the concern is coming from you. Not actual objective owners.

 

Henry is likely to have 3 TDs in one game not a season like Firnette did last year.

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12 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

You don't draft a RB based on past year's TD output, you draft based on their past/future workload, opportunity for growth(more carries/targets), and matchups throughout the season. It's been 2 fuking games, so going by your logic Josh Jacobs will finish with 48 TDs.

 

Calvin Ridley is on pace for 32 receiving TDs.

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22 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

You don't draft a RB based on past year's TD output, you draft based on their past/future workload, opportunity for growth(more carries/targets), and matchups throughout the season. It's been 2 fuking games, so going by your logic Josh Jacobs will finish with 48 TDs.

You brought up his yardage projections as if that should ease our concerns. Of course Jacobs won't end up with 48, and of course Henry won't end up with zero, but I guess I'm just not as encouraged by his inefficient yardage thus far as some seem to be. If he had 8 catches already and was at 4.5 YPC then sure, we have things to be optimistic about, but there's just nothing there (yet).  

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18 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Most of the concern is coming from you. Not actual objective owners.

I think I'm being very objective. This is the worst two game stretch (where he's had at least 10 touches) of his entire career. 

As an example, CEH. Yesterday doesn't worry me in the least. It was a very weird game, and he was heavily involved in the passing game. That gets chalked up as an anomaly for me. 

But with Henry, you had two games against bad teams, both of which they were winning, multiple GL opportunities, high scoring in the second game, both wins, and he did bad in both. That is not a good sign. Both those game scripts were extremely pro-Henry, and he still didn't produce. 

Going into the year we had a workhorse TD machine who averaged 4.5+ YPC who might be getting some more work in the passing game. He's down almost a full yard per carry, no TDs, and as you know from watching, there's very clearly no plan to increase his utilization in the passing game. 

So again, I'm not saying drop the guy, but literally nothing outside of them winning and him not getting hurt has been encouraging. 

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1 minute ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I think I'm being very objective. This is the worst two game stretch (where he's had at least 10 touches) of his entire career. 

As an example, CEH. Yesterday doesn't worry me in the least. It was a very weird game, and he was heavily involved in the passing game. That gets chalked up as an anomaly for me. 

But with Henry, you had two games against bad teams, both of which they were winning, multiple GL opportunities, high scoring in the second game, both wins, and he did bad in both. That is not a good sign. Both those game scripts were extremely pro-Henry, and he still didn't produce. 

Going into the year we had a workhorse TD machine who averaged 4.5+ YPC who might be getting some more work in the passing game. He's down almost a full yard per carry, no TDs, and as you know from watching, there's very clearly no plan to increase his utilization in the passing game. 

So again, I'm not saying drop the guy, but literally nothing outside of them winning and him not getting hurt has been encouraging. 

 

 

It's good to hear your not saying to drop him.

 

😂😂😂

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3 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I'm not saying drop the guy

Phew. You talked me off the ledge. 

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59 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I'd rather not be without my RB1 for 4-6 weeks so Henry for me.


Spoiler Alert, you've been without an RB1 for 2 weeks and counting...

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