DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

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59 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

So the best thing going for this guy is that he started slow last year and at least he’s not injured yet.  Great lol.  A big red flag here is that he’s played 2 garbage teams with favorable game scripts.  He hasn’t even seen a good defense or an unfavorable game script yet.  

THIS. You nailed it. I understand that every player has bad games, but these were the definition of games he should've gone for 25+ and he looked terrible in both. It's concerning, plain and simple. 

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6 minutes ago, mrschrod said:

 

Are you happy with 3.6 YPC?

This is such a stupid argument to have. You can still like a player and say he has been disappointing so far. I like Joe Mixon. Has he been disappointing? Yes. See how easy that is? Now you try.

And as I said in my previous post, I don't think this continues, and I would buy Derrick Henry, but to never say anything negative about someone just because you like them is foolish.

 

Henry will be close to his career ypc by seasons end, that's all I care about.

 

Week to week ypc is fluky and indicative of nothing.

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9 minutes ago, mrschrod said:

 

Are you happy with 3.6 YPC?

This is such a stupid argument to have. You can still like a player and say he has been disappointing so far. I like Joe Mixon. Has he been disappointing? Yes. See how easy that is? Now you try.

And as I said in my previous post, I don't think this continues, and I would buy Derrick Henry, but to never say anything negative about someone just because you like them is foolish.

Completely agree. I'm not sure how this is even a debate. Henry has been terrible thus far, and based on his ADP a collosal bust. Doesn't mean he won't turn it around, but I don't understand why it's so hard to admit that. 

Your takes aren't taken as seriously if you're incapable of being objective when things aren't going well. 

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7 minutes ago, mrschrod said:

 

CMC hasn't disappointed so far, but he will moving forward because he won't be playing. Saquon absolutely has. I'm not talking about them though as this is the Derrick Henry thread.

When I drafted Henry, I expected close to career norms, 4.7 YPC. He hasn't done that yet. I think he will definitely get closer to that as the season goes on, but he hasn't yet.

As for Josh Jacobs, he was also the #1 RB last week. Derrick Henry was not.

 

If you draft anyone expecting 4.7 ypc every week then you are doing it wrong, imo.

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Henry will be close to his career ypc by seasons end, that's all I care about.

 

Week to week ypc is fluky and indicative of nothing.

 

I would agree with your first statement. This team is built to run, and Henry is talented enough and will break big runs and get his TD's before the end of the year. If anyone is scared and wants to sell, I would be buying, as injury aside, I don't see the volume going down at all.

However, up until this point, we drafted Henry as a top 10 RB. He has not been a top 20 RB so far. That means he has disappointed so far. That's just a fact. the question then becomes will he continue to be a disappointment. I think we probably both agree he won't be.

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Week to week ypc is fluky and indicative of nothing.

Very simple question. Is the fact that this is the worst two game stretch of his career (10+ carries) in two matchups with nearly perfect gamescript something an objective analyst should just completely ignore? It's relevant data. And it's not encouraging. 

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Just now, mrschrod said:

 

I would agree with your first statement. This team is built to run, and Henry is talented enough and will break big runs and get his TD's before the end of the year. If anyone is scared and wants to sell, I would be buying, as injury aside, I don't see the volume going down at all.

However, up until this point, we drafted Henry as a top 10 RB. He has not been a top 20 RB so far. That means he has disappointed so far. That's just a fact. the question then becomes will he continue to be a disappointment. I think we probably both agree he won't be.

He had some bad luck with some goal line play calls, I'm completely satisfied with everything else.

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

If you draft anyone expecting 4.7 ypc every week then you are doing it wrong, imo.

 

I don't expect 4.7 YPC per week exactly. there is variance. but it's also ok to say 'that wasn't a good game from this player' when that happens. is it all Derrick Henry's fault? that's a completely different argument, but I am talking about overall numbers so far. If you draft a guy in the top 5, and after two weeks he isn't a top 20 RB, that is a disappointment for those two weeks.

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Just now, BGDDYKWL said:

Very simple question. Is the fact that this is the worst two game stretch of his career (10+ carries) in two matchups with nearly perfect gamescript something an objective analyst should just completely ignore? It's relevant data. And it's not encouraging. 

 

Fluky goal line calls first 2 games since Henry draws so much attention, rightfully so.

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1 minute ago, mrschrod said:

 

I don't expect 4.7 YPC per week exactly. there is variance. but it's also ok to say 'that wasn't a good game from this player' when that happens. is it all Derrick Henry's fault? that's a completely different argument, but I am talking about overall numbers so far. If you draft a guy in the top 5, and after two weeks he isn't a top 20 RB, that is a disappointment for those two weeks.

 

Maybe to you. Ive won my weeks so your claim is relative to what your team needed. Mine was fine with what Henry did. If you are dissapointed maybe you should have put together a better overall team.

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200 yards over 2 games. Tons of usage. The TDs will come and the yards per touch will improve. Feel no different about him than I did at draft day.

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Maybe to you. Ive won my weeks so your claim is relative to what your team needed. Mine was fine with what Henry did. If you are dissapointed maybe you should have put together a better overall team.

 

I am also 2-0 with Derrick Henry in my league, so it's not about the team. it's about individual performance. and as I have said numerous times, i'm don't think this will continue. i'm sure Derrick Henry will win me weeks with huge games. i'm not debating that. all I am saying is that he has not been a top 20 RB when every owner has paid atleast a top 10 RB price for him. that is disappointing. if you can just admit that and talk about his future value, we would be on the same page, but for some reason you won't admit that he hasn't been what you want for the price you paid for him so far. 

there have also been alot of others who haven't lived up to their draft position either. Derrick Henry just also fits into that group so far.

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8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Maybe to you. Ive won my weeks so your claim is relative to what your team needed. Mine was fine with what Henry did. If you are dissapointed maybe you should have put together a better overall team.

Please don't go there. You are one of the better posters here(biases aside) because you actually offer insight sometimes but when you fall back on stuff like that it erodes your credibility. Your team's performance is irrelevant to a conversation about a players fantasy performance. Nobody cares if you won or lost and it doesn't have any bearing on whether the players is underachieving or not

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8 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Please don't go there. You are one of the better posters here(biases aside) because you actually offer insight sometimes but when you fall back on stuff like that it erodes your credibility. Your team's performance is irrelevant to a conversation about a players fantasy performance. Nobody cares if you won or lost and it doesn't have any bearing on whether the players is underachieving or not

 

It does when you are talking about whether a player was a dissapointment or not. Just because he was a dissapointment to one person doesn't mean he dissapointed everyone as I pointed out.

 

If he had 3.6 ypc on 15 carries I might be dissapointed but that's not the case.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

Did this cat plod the last game or was the defense actually good?

 

I think both the Jags and the Broncos are slightly better than the perceptions people have of them. they aren't the pushovers you would think. The Jags held Indy to a 4 ypc average their first game, which isn't too bad too

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

It does when you are talking about whether a player was a dissapointment or not. Just because he was a dissapointment to one person doesn't mean he dissapointed everyone as I pointed out.

No, it 100% doesn't. Fantasy players are disappointments based on what they do relative to expectations. Not whether your team won or not. We're here discussing their overall outlook, not your team's outlook. Make sense?

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Why the f--- are people in here arguing over a 2 week span? It's two weeks who cares in the grand scheme of things?

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3 minutes ago, owenmills said:

No, it 100% doesn't. Fantasy players are disappointments based on what they do relative to expectations. Not whether your team won or not. We're here discussing their overall outlook, not your team's outlook. Make sense?

 

Ok, that's fine. If thats how you want to view it then I am ok with that

 

120 yards week 1 is not dissapointing to me I dont care if it took him 55 carries to get those 120

 

85 is on the low side but I am not dissapointed with that either.

 

Both those rushing totals are fine for a RB1. TDs are harder to predict but Henry has goal line duties on lock so I think he will score more of those soon.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Why the f--- are people in here arguing over whether Derrick Henry is good or not. It's Derrick freakin’ Henry, who cares?

 

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I see guys talking about top 10 and 20 RB. I assume Henry was a first rounder in everyone's league, right?

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4 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Why the f--- are people in here arguing over a 2 week span? It's two weeks who cares in the grand scheme of things?

 

Because the first 2 weeks of the season is the best indication of future fantasy success?

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20 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Ok, that's fine. If thats how you want to view it then I am ok with that

 

120 yards week 1 is not dissapointing to me I dont care if it took him 55 carries to get those 120

 

85 is on the low side but I am not dissapointed with that either.

 

Both those rushing totals are fine for a RB1. TDs are harder to predict but Henry has goal line duties on lock so I think he will score more of those soon.

I hear you. He definitely needs TDs to return his ADP value since he doesn't catch many passes but I think he'll get those, and the usage and yardage wasn't bad. I wouldn't be worried about him as an owner

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8 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I hear you. He definitely needs TDs to return his ADP value since he doesn't catch many passes but I think he'll get those, and the usage and yardage wasn't bad. I wouldn't be worried about him as an owner

Every first round picks needs TDs to return anywhere near their TDs.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Maybe to you. Ive won my weeks so your claim is relative to what your team needed. Mine was fine with what Henry did. If you are dissapointed maybe you should have put together a better overall team.

You (or anyone else winning is irrelevant). I could be 2-0 with Saquon right now, that doesn't mean he wasn't a bust. 

1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

200 yards over 2 games. Tons of usage. The TDs will come and the yards per touch will improve. Feel no different about him than I did at draft day.

I don't see how that's possible. There were both plus games for Henry and he performed poorly in both. He's right around the RB25 right now. There's a legit chance teams have said, we will not let Henry beat us. 

53 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Did this cat plod the last game or was the defense actually good?

He's plodded all year. That's not me being salty, it's simply a fact. His longest run on the year is 14 yards, and his YPC is 3.6. Lotta plodding. 

49 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

It does when you are talking about whether a player was a dissapointment or not. Just because he was a dissapointment to one person doesn't mean he dissapointed everyone as I pointed out.

A player not living up to his ADP is not subjective. You don't say, my first round pick went for half his projection, but I won, so that means he didn't have a bad week. 

42 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Why the f--- are people in here arguing over a 2 week span? It's two weeks who cares in the grand scheme of things?

Because it may be indicative of things to come. Teams may be saying we're gonna stop Henry at all costs. That's gonna make it tougher for him to feast like he did last year. 

People keep mentioning them using him as a decoy at the GL because he draws so much attention. Well, it worked. What's to say they won't continue to do that? 

Also, the first two weeks matter just as much as week 12 and 13. This idea that him sucking it up right now is irrelevant simply isn't true. 

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