Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

5 minutes ago, straightfire118 said:

No one takes you seriously, we get it you are a huge homer. Catching zero in week 2 is a big red flag, wow you are impressed about 3 catches week one LOL? Hes on pace for 22 catches wow that does a whole lot in ppr.

 

Would be 4 more than he caught last year when he finished as the #5 PPR RB, lest you forgot.

 

You are being disingenuous when you claim "he catches no passes". Yes, he does. He might not catch as many as you would like so you just dismiss them but people here come to learn some real facts and you are not giving them.

 

We get it, you are a huge Henry hater that likes to troll this thread, I have no problem correcting your mistakes so the people here do not take you seriously.

Edited September 23, 2020 by DerrickHenrysCleats

[LacesOut 69]

For actual nfl purposes sure Henry is and has been an rb 1. For fantasy he's not delivered rb1 points through first two weeks. He's not in top 12 points yet even though I'm sure he'll finish top 5 in rb. He's the definition of due for fantasy production but pretending you should be happy with what's he's done because the volume is there doesn't help people that drafted him and aren't 2-0 safely knowing he'll carry them to a few more wins. 

[bhawks489 3,669]

28 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Hmmmm, what is a RB1 then?

 

116 yards week 1

 

85 yards week 2

 

Are you only a RB1 if you score a TD? Or does it require a certain amount of fantasy points?

Depends on what all other RBs score imo. If only 11 other rbs score more than him hes a RB1 in 12 teamers

 

Im not worried about the output. 8.5 points and 11.6 points are fine. Hes due for some TDs

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

1 minute ago, LacesOut said:

For actual nfl purposes sure Henry is and has been an rb 1. For fantasy he's not delivered rb1 points through first two weeks. He's not in top 12 points yet even though I'm sure he'll finish top 5 in rb. He's the definition of due for fantasy production but pretending you should be happy with what's he's done because the volume is there doesn't help people that drafted him and aren't 2-0 safely knowing he'll carry them to a few more wins. 

 

When you find someone who said to be happy about his first 2 weeks feel free to point them out.

 

As I've stated before, he is posting RB1 numbers. If you wanted more the first 2 weeks I'm sorry you got let down, maybe Henry will meet your lofty expectations weeks 3-16 or maybe the TEs for Tennessee will end the season with 32 TDs like they are on pace for.

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

Depends on what all other RBs score imo. If only 11 other rbs score more than him hes a RB1 in 12 teamers

 

Im not worried about the output. 8.5 points and 11.6 points are fine. Hes due for some TDs

 

Right on. I don't know what is deemed a RB1. I always thought around 75 yards with a better than 50% chance at a TD was fine to call a RB1

[Silent-Trader 403]

This debate is funny. Right now Derek Henry, in PPR, is RB23. That makes him an RB2 after two weeks, end of argument. 

[shakestreet 4,040]

3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

As I've stated before, he is posting RB1 numbers

He has NOT. ... You know that. Later . You keep spinning the wheel 

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

5 minutes ago, Silent-Trader said:

This debate is funny. Right now Derek Henry, in PPR, is RB23. That makes him an RB2 after two weeks, end of argument. 

 

Fluky TE TDs instead of TD plunges for Henry will do that.

 

RB1 status activated.

 

Arrow pointing up.

[Silent-Trader 403]

Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Fluky TE TDs instead of TD plunges for Henry will do that.

 

RB1 status activated.

 

Arrow pointing up.

 

It doesn't matter. Fantasy is about points, period! Maybe he will be an RB1 in a few weeks, but right now he's an RB2. And a low end one! 

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

2 minutes ago, Silent-Trader said:

 

It doesn't matter. Fantasy is about points, period! Maybe he will be an RB1 in a few weeks, but right now he's an RB2. And a low end one! 

 

It doesn't matter to you.

 

Fortunately rational people appreciate context. 

 

If this does not apply to you then you do not have to listen.

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

37 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

As I've stated before, he is posting RB1 numbers. 

No, he isn't. He's right around the RB25. That's an RB3 in a lot of leagues. 

In terms of how you determine a RB1, it's a RB who's in the top 10-12 in RB scoring. Fantasy scoring. This is a fantasy board. 

[cgu112 218]

1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Hmmmm, what is a RB1 then?

 

116 yards week 1

 

85 yards week 2

 

Are you only a RB1 if you score a TD? Or does it require a certain amount of fantasy points?

you are an rb1 if you score one of the top 12 (Or 10 or 14 etc) highest point totals for all rbs lmao. Not particularly difficult to understand. People say player x is an rb1 because he is either averaging rb1 pts (top 12) or  they expect him to in the future.  
 

henry is clearly not #1.  I agree looking forward hes an “rb1” but currently he is not. Which is what ppl were initially arguing (the first 2 weeks).

stop with these annoying semantics arguments where u keep moving the goalpost. 

[egolam 37]

yeah but that's not saying he'll not finish in the top 12 come season end. Right now everybody should be salivating at that viking matchup and if it's your belief that he'll receive too much attention from defenses, it'll be the perfect time to sell high. 

[bhawks489 3,669]

If people think he wont be RB1 like some sentiment in this thread, BUY BUY BUY

[Ergogh 41]

People forget he scored under 15 fantasy points(.5 PPR) in 4 of the first 6 games last season (on of which was under 5 points) just to score over 20 in the majority of the rest of the games. He gon eat and with all these injuries I see him as an easy top 3 RB fantasy-wise in .5 PPR and standard.

[Gohawks 9,990]

Reading this thread makes me want to shove a spear through my eyes 

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

All week long, the Jacksonville Jaguars' players and coaches made one thing clear in the lead up to Sunday's road battle against the Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry was priority No. 1. 

As a result, it was incredibly unsurprising to see that the Jaguars' entire defensive game plan seemed to center around stopping Henry, who led the league in rushing last season. After all, the last time the Jaguars played Henry, he rushed for 159 yards and two touchdowns on only 19 carries (8.37 yard per carry average). 

For the most part, the Jaguars were successful in their quest to prevent Henry from changing the complexion of the game. Henry rushed 25 times for just 84 yards, giving him a 3.4 yard per carry average. Sans a few long runs he had toward the game's end, the Jaguars kept Henry in check thanks to an increased focus on the workhorse back. 

"We just committed to the game plan. I mean, coming up here, you know what Tennessee is going to do," Jaguars nose tackle Abry Jones said after the game. 

"You know who their bell cow is, and it really just comes down to a commitment by every player on this team that's going to say we want to stop the run, and I feel like we came out here and tried to accomplish that."

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/did-jaguars-put-too-much-focus-on-stopping-derrick-henry

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

1 hour ago, Ergogh said:

People forget he scored under 15 fantasy points(.5 PPR) in 4 of the first 6 games last season (on of which was under 5 points) just to score over 20 in the majority of the rest of the games. He gon eat and with all these injuries I see him as an easy top 3 RB fantasy-wise in .5 PPR and standard.

That was with Mariota. Not exactly apples to apples. The narrative that he's always a "slow starter" doesn't have nearly enough if a sample size to be supported. 

1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

All week long, the Jacksonville Jaguars' players and coaches made one thing clear in the lead up to Sunday's road battle against the Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry was priority No. 1. 

As a result, it was incredibly unsurprising to see that the Jaguars' entire defensive game plan seemed to center around stopping Henry, who led the league in rushing last season. After all, the last time the Jaguars played Henry, he rushed for 159 yards and two touchdowns on only 19 carries (8.37 yard per carry average). 

For the most part, the Jaguars were successful in their quest to prevent Henry from changing the complexion of the game. Henry rushed 25 times for just 84 yards, giving him a 3.4 yard per carry average. Sans a few long runs he had toward the game's end, the Jaguars kept Henry in check thanks to an increased focus on the workhorse back. 

"We just committed to the game plan. I mean, coming up here, you know what Tennessee is going to do," Jaguars nose tackle Abry Jones said after the game. 

"You know who their bell cow is, and it really just comes down to a commitment by every player on this team that's going to say we want to stop the run, and I feel like we came out here and tried to accomplish that."

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/did-jaguars-put-too-much-focus-on-stopping-derrick-henry

Who's to say more teams don't do this?

[Evincar 1,685]

2 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

No, he isn't. He's right around the RB25. That's an RB3 in a lot of leagues. 

In terms of how you determine a RB1, it's a RB who's in the top 10-12 in RB scoring. Fantasy scoring. This is a fantasy board. 

 

RB25? Are you counting guys like Malcom Brown?

Edited September 23, 2020 by Evincar

[BMcP 8,153]

I’m sure Derrick Henry is a hard worker - but there is absolutely no question that Cleats is a harder worker every football season, by a country mile.

Let’s take this to another 100 pages this year, ladies and gents!

[JoeJoe88 1,153]

8 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

RB25? Are you counting guys like Malcom Brown?

He’s exactly RB20 in my dynasty PPR, right behind guys like Malcom Brown, David Montgomery and Hines. Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s not top 12 after after this week. 

[Evincar 1,685]

1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He’s exactly RB20 in my dynasty PPR, right behind guys like Malcom Brown, David Montgomery and Hines. Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s not top 12 after after this week. 

Would you rank Brown and Hines over Henry ROS?

[Breesus 482]

This thread is a headache right now.

Henry is not a RB1 technically right now. But he has been a consistent RB1 over the last few years, who has a history of starting slower then finishing strong. I think most people in this forum consider him a RB1 RoS, that’s the main point. All the people mad that he “isn’t a RB1” wouldn’t trade him for half the RB1’s right now. I get what @DerrickHenrysCleats is saying it’s not that hard 

Edited September 23, 2020 by Breesus

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

49 minutes ago, Evincar said:

RB25? Are you counting guys like Malcom Brown?

I am, because Brown has scored more points. He's RB25 in PPR, and Kamara, Zeke, Jones, and Jacobs have over twice as many points. 

35 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Would you rank Brown and Hines over Henry ROS?

Absolutely not. But it speaks to my point. The fact that he's gotten a ton of touches doesn't discount the fact that he's been incredibly disappointing given his ADP. 

[FFCollusion 5,411]

3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I always thought around 75 yards with a better than 50% chance at a TD was fine to call a RB1

Based on what?  Nothing in the history of this game would EVER lead any sane person to think that.

75 yards a week * 16 = 1200 yards (120 points)
50% of a TD * 16 = 8 TDs (48 points)

Total: 168 points

168 points would rank as RB27 last season. (This would be 10.5PPG which would rank 37th among RBs last year... add another 55 WRs to ensure you don't even think about flexing this alleged 75/.5 player.

If you throw in 20/200 in the receiving game you get to 190 points, which would only rank as RB22.

75/.5 is nowhere near RB1 status.

Just to be clear, this isn't about Henry specifically, it's about perception of the game we play.  Phillip Lindsey last year is the lowest RB (of the top 50) to have average at least 75 yards a week.  He had a 44% TD rate. He finished 20th among RBs in total points, with help from 35/19

Go read the Devonta Freeman thread and see all the positive and rave reviews he's getting.  He averaged 76yds/44%TD last year.
17 RBs last year had over 1200 yards combined.

We're 2 weeks into 2020, there are currently 24 RBs averaging at least 75 yards a game right now.  19 of those 24 are averaging at least .5TDs per week. (Tiny sample size)

Henry's fantasy value come from volume and TDs, because he's not a passing down back.  Unfortunately, TDs are the flukiest stat in the game, so when they don't come, it's harder to swallow, because he can't inflate his points with catches like many other backs can.  Henry's points will come in chunks, because multi-TD game days will happen, so rather than a slow climb up the RB points chart, he'll sink down slowly, then the TDs come, and he'll leap frog multiple other backs.  For example, right now he's RB25.  Week 3, he splashes the endzone twice, and he'll polevault into the top 12.

For me, the further we get into the season, the more valuable Henry becomes.  Each week I don't own him, he actually creeps up my draft board.  Thus, as I've stated, if you can find an owner who's not happy with the first 2 weeks and has Henry falling 'down' their draft board or rankings, you can buy at fair market value when/if those 2 paths cross.  3 Weeks ago, Henry was being valued as RB6~8.  Today he's sitting at RB25 in the standings, so if you can find an owner willing to trade him for RB10~15 value, both sides of the trade can possibly walk away with a win.