Jump to content
Rotoworld.com Forums

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Barkley - Out for season CMC - Has been out most of the season who knows his status for rest of season Sanders - in and out of the lineup Drake - Huge bust before getting injured M

If Henry got COVID his body would immediately synthesize an antiviral to it. Henry would then exhale it throughout the Western Hemisphere (at minimum), ending the pandemic.   (Alshon's soft tissu

You in a room with everyone legitimately mentioning him for MVP: 

Posted Images

30 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

LOL at people calling Ryan Tannehil "great". Make no mistake, the Titans did what they did last year because of Derrick Henry. Without Henry carrying the ball 30 times for 180 and 2 tds, Tannehill is back to being a jag.

I agree. thats all...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Titans dont even need a QB.... They can litterally put Henry behind center add another blocker (which was the qb) and direct snap to Henry every play and run and still be successful. Nobody can stop Henry even though they know 100% run play. its crazy. 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Titans dont even need a QB.... They can litterally put Henry behind center add another blocker (which was the qb) and direct snap to Henry every play and run and still be successful. Nobody can stop Henry even though they know 100% run play. its crazy. 

~990 rushes per year would definitely lock Henry in as first pick overall....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

LOL at people calling Ryan Tannehil "great". Make no mistake, the Titans did what they did last year because of Derrick Henry. Without Henry carrying the ball 30 times for 180 and 2 tds, Tannehill is back to being a jag.


Agreed but this jag does fit the style of play the titans wanna play perfectly. I think his ability to use his feet and hit open wide receivers in stride are the two key things. Usually any jag at QB can hit open wrs but Tannehill puts it where they can get some YAC other jag guys who I thought did this are guys like jay cutler or Derek Carr even Andy dalton can hit AJ green in stride when he’s open. He is also more athletic than the average qb in the NFL. Which allows for him to buy time or get some cheap first downs like mitchell trubisky or tyrod Taylor. Usually jag qbs will possess one of those ability’s not both and his ability to do both a little above average is exactly what the titans need.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Titans plan to bring back Derrick Henry "at a big number."

It's unclear if Rapoport actually has new information, or is merely speculating after the Titans released backup RB Dion Lewis. Either way, signs are indicating that Henry will likely be back in Tennessee next season with a hefty new contract. It remains to be seen how well the Titans' bell-cow RB will age, although Henry doesn't exactly have more miles on his legs than other free agent RBs. Overall, each of Melvin Gordon (1,936), Lamar Miller (1,926) and Carlos Hyde (1,758) have far more combined collegiate and NFL touches than Henry (1,480).

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Titans plan to bring back Derrick Henry "at a big number."

It's unclear if Rapoport actually has new information, or is merely speculating after the Titans released backup RB Dion Lewis. Either way, signs are indicating that Henry will likely be back in Tennessee next season with a hefty new contract. It remains to be seen how well the Titans' bell-cow RB will age, although Henry doesn't exactly have more miles on his legs than other free agent RBs. Overall, each of Melvin Gordon (1,936), Lamar Miller (1,926) and Carlos Hyde (1,758) have far more combined collegiate and NFL touches than Henry (1,480).


They’re also half the man that Henry is

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ten could save a lot of money by letting Henry walk and drafting J Taylor.    You’ll be able to bring back Conklin, L Ryan,  and make a run at X Rhoades, C Harris, or Jones.  Shore up that secondary.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Ten could save a lot of money by letting Henry walk and drafting J Taylor.    You’ll be able to bring back Conklin, L Ryan,  and make a run at X Rhoades, C Harris, or Jones.  Shore up that secondary.  

 

Trying to turn Ryan Tannehill back into a pumpkin? 

 

Maybe you missed what Jonathan Taylor did against Ohio State or a lack thereof for that matter (20 carries for 52 scoreless yards). Not sure a rookie RB who catches less passes than the leagues leading rusher is the answer. In case you didn't notice Henry is the reason the Titans even went as far as they did this year.

 

I thought the point of running a football team was to get better not making your team worse. Conklin is an overrated RT who will get a bloated contract when Henry does the heavy lifting through the left behind Lewan and Saffold. 

 

Now, if the Titans move to the Big 12 then you might be on to something...

 

I know you were just poking the bear anyway. Titans will draft a RT, CB and more defensive help.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Not my analysis, but some good points take from a guy named "broadly" from redditfantasy. He is pretty much echoing my points about Henry being over drafted in FULL ppr leagues. IMO opinion he shouldn't be drafted in the first round. 

Since 2013 only two running backs have finished in the top 12 in full ppr scoring with less than 20 receptions: Derrick Henry last year and LaGagarrette Blount in 2016. That's 2/82 qualified backs or 2.3 percent. Hell only 10 RB2's have finished with less than 20 catches for 10/168 or 5.9 percent. 

The Titans were the most efficient offense in football for the back half of the season last year when Henry really did the work that put him over into the top 5. That's something I'd fade happening again in 2020.

The point isn't that he can't finish as an RB1 next year. He does have a unique situation that puts that within his range of outcomes. The point is that it's foolish to slot him in as a top 5 RB in full PPR when 2019 Derrick Henry is literally the only time that a RB with less than 20 receptions has finished that highly in that format in at least 7 years (I'm using Fantasy Pros stats that only go back that far. It could very well be longer).

I'm not saying he won't do well in 2020. I am saying that if people end up saying he's a top 5 RB and he goes off in the first round of PPR drafts, that that's a major overdraft compared to his most likely outcomes.

It cannot be overstated how much catches matter for RB's in PPR. It's like running for QB's in 4pt TD leagues. It's just an enormous advantage and that's why you barely ever see RB's who don't catch the ball finish in the top 24 in PPR...again 10/168 in the last 7 years.

So yeah a list off the top of my head and roughly in order: CMC, Saq, Zeke, Kamara, Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Mixon should 100 percent be taken before Henry in PPR. Jones, Ekeler, Gordon, Sanders, and Taylor, Dobbins, or Swift could possibly all end up higher for me depending on what happens throughout the rest of the offseason.

So splitting that last, speculative group in half, let's say I'll have Henry at RB 12 for PPR drafts with the possibility to raise 4-5 spots if it looks like Tennessee isn't going to fill Dion Lewis's spot in any meaningful way. RB 12 last year (Kerryon Johnson) was the 28th overall player off the board in PPR. That sounds about right for Henry with everything we know right now.

 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Trying to turn Ryan Tannehill back into a pumpkin? 

 

Maybe you missed what Jonathan Taylor did against Ohio State or a lack thereof for that matter (20 carries for 52 scoreless yards). Not sure a rookie RB who catches less passes than the leagues leading rusher is the answer. In case you didn't notice Henry is the reason the Titans even went as far as they did this year.

 

I thought the point of running a football team was to get better not making your team worse. Conklin is an overrated RT who will get a bloated contract when Henry does the heavy lifting through the left behind Lewan and Saffold. 

 

Now, if the Titans move to the Big 12 then you might be on to something...

 

I know you were just poking the bear anyway. Titans will draft a RT, CB and more defensive help.

I agree. Id rather let Conklin walk... dude hasnt been the same since the injury.

 

Lock up Tannetrill, Henry. Titans draft should all be defensive players... 

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Not my analysis, but some good points take from a guy named "broadly" from redditfantasy. He is pretty much echoing my points about Henry being over drafted in FULL ppr leagues. IMO opinion he shouldn't be drafted in the first round. 

Since 2013 only two running backs have finished in the top 12 in full ppr scoring with less than 20 receptions: Derrick Henry last year and LaGagarrette Blount in 2016. That's 2/82 qualified backs or 2.3 percent. Hell only 10 RB2's have finished with less than 20 catches for 10/168 or 5.9 percent. 

The Titans were the most efficient offense in football for the back half of the season last year when Henry really did the work that put him over into the top 5. That's something I'd fade happening again in 2020.

The point isn't that he can't finish as an RB1 next year. He does have a unique situation that puts that within his range of outcomes. The point is that it's foolish to slot him in as a top 5 RB in full PPR when 2019 Derrick Henry is literally the only time that a RB with less than 20 receptions has finished that highly in that format in at least 7 years (I'm using Fantasy Pros stats that only go back that far. It could very well be longer).

I'm not saying he won't do well in 2020. I am saying that if people end up saying he's a top 5 RB and he goes off in the first round of PPR drafts, that that's a major overdraft compared to his most likely outcomes.

It cannot be overstated how much catches matter for RB's in PPR. It's like running for QB's in 4pt TD leagues. It's just an enormous advantage and that's why you barely ever see RB's who don't catch the ball finish in the top 24 in PPR...again 10/168 in the last 7 years.

So yeah a list off the top of my head and roughly in order: CMC, Saq, Zeke, Kamara, Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Mixon should 100 percent be taken before Henry in PPR. Jones, Ekeler, Gordon, Sanders, and Taylor, Dobbins, or Swift could possibly all end up higher for me depending on what happens throughout the rest of the offseason.

So splitting that last, speculative group in half, let's say I'll have Henry at RB 12 for PPR drafts with the possibility to raise 4-5 spots if it looks like Tennessee isn't going to fill Dion Lewis's spot in any meaningful way. RB 12 last year (Kerryon Johnson) was the 28th overall player off the board in PPR. That sounds about right for Henry with everything we know right now.

 

 

So you expect Henry to regress in 2020 despite being one of the most explosive RBs the last couple years. The reason Henry keeps Pace with the elite RBs is because he has more 60+ yd TDs than than any other RB for the last 2 years, those are big time fantasy points in those types of plays and make up for a lot of PPR points.

 

The reason the Titans were the most efficient offense in the back half of last season was because they inserted Tannehill over Mariota and he took advantage of defenses stacking the box against Henry.

 

So, the only time a RB with less than 20 receptions has finished that highly in that format in at least 7 years is the exact same year that Henry had his 1st ever 300 carry season? Very interesting indeed. Titans committed to Henry and he broke a 7+ year record fairly easily despite wasting 4 games with Mariota at QB. Even more impressive for Henry. What will change in 2020? Will Henry face stacked boxes? I think he has done that before and has done fine. Is Lewan or Saffold leaving? Is there a disruption of continuity on the offensive staff that I haven't heard about?

 

It can not be overstated how underutilized Henry was in the passing game despite the explosion he has shown on his catches out in space. Dion Lewis was just released and Henry will sign a Zeke Elliot size contract. Not to discredit the Reddit poster but what would lead him to believe that Henrys receiving numbers would go down?  I am of the opinion that they will utilize Henry more in the passing game since they have seen that he is the most explosive RB in the NFL, especially out in open space. With Tannehill at QB all season and continuity with the coaching staff I think it would be silly to expect his receiving numbers to go down, I'd expect them to almost double to 35-40 and since he averages over 10 yards per reception 400 yards and a couple TDs is more than enough to keep him at the top of the ranks for PPR RBs since his rushing numbers are likely to be better than last years since they won't waste 4 games with Mariota at QB.

 

So, just to be clear, even though Henrys situation in 2020 is set up even better than it was in 2019 you 100%  expect him to regress to the point where he finishes behind 7 other RBs that he finished ahead of last year? That seems like a bit of a stretch to me. 

 

Henry is going to finish with over 2,000 all purpose yards and between 15-20 TDs. That's top 5 RB territory and he probably finishes top 3 because he will have one of the best Olines in the NFL.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

So, just to be clear, even though Henrys situation in 2020 is set up even better than it was in 2019 you 100%  expect him to regress to the point where he finishes behind 7 other RBs that he finished ahead of last year? That seems like a bit of a stretch to me. 

 

Henry is going to finish with over 2,000 all purpose yards and between 15-20 TDs. That's top 5 RB territory and he probably finishes top 3 because he will have one of the best Olines in the NFL.

"Most Explosive RB in the nfl in space?"

Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Barkley, Chubb, CMC? Henry is more Brandon Jacobs than Chris Johnson or AP. A bruiser that wears down defenses and gets better as the game goes.

2,000 yards 15-20 tds? And Im the one taking a stretch? Do you know how difficult that is and you know that tds fluctuate highly every year not as much for wrs but still. 

Henry has been in the league 4 years and never topped 20 catches. Plus his snap counts are low compared other rbs. He can get game scripted out. It has been effective for the titans why change all of a sudden.

That being said if they dont sign a 3rd down back of note and show that they are giving him more run as a receiver in the preseason Ill change my thoughts.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

"Most Explosive RB in the nfl in space?"

Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Barkley, Chubb, CMC? Henry is more Brandon Jacobs than Chris Johnson or AP. A bruiser that wears down defenses and gets better as the game goes.

2,000 yards 15-20 tds? And Im the one taking a stretch? Do you know how difficult that is and you know that tds fluctuate highly every year not as much for wrs but still. 

Henry has been in the league 4 years and never topped 20 catches. Plus his snap counts are low compared other rbs. He can get game scripted out. It has been effective for the titans why change all of a sudden.

That being said if they dont sign a 3rd down back of note and show that they are giving him more run as a receiver in the preseason Ill change my thoughts.

 

 

 

Yes, Henry is the most explosive RB in space. Do you know of another RB who has more explosive plays than Henry over the last 2 seasons? I've always known explosive plays to mean those of 60+ yds or more. I'm pretty sure Henry owns that.

 

It's funny you mention all those guys and Henry outperformed every single one in PPR except CMC. Yet you say to draft them plus about 5 more before Henry and Henrys situation has done nothing but get better. 

What reason are you giving for Henrys regression?

Henry is such a dominant rusher that he doesn't need as many catches as some other RBs to help buoy their rushing stats and the amount of games they will miss due to injury.

1st season Henry was committed to as the starting RB and he put up over 1,500 yards rushing and he added 200 receiving yards and 2 TDs to go along with 16 rushing TDs, was also Arthur Smith's 1st season calling plays. Henry had 18 catches and he is capable of doubling that. Dion Lewis has been released and even a rookie RB is not going to come in with enough experience to take all pass catching work for the Titans. Any way you look at it Henrys catches are going to go up this season.

You scoff at him reaching 2,000 all purpose yards when he had 1,746 all purpose yards last year and they just released Dion lewis, and Mariota started 4 of the 15 games Henry started last year. Henry had 12 TDs on 240 touches in 2018, then last year had 18 TDs on 331 touches.

 

With a huge contract and the starting position all to himself, another 300+ season incoming it's a pretty safe bet that he will get between 15-20 TDs, that seems fairly obvious. I think if Henry plays a full 16 games it certainly is possible for him to hit 1,600 yards rushing and 400 receiving yards and 32 or so catches. If you have watched Henry you know he can catch, it's just a matter of them using him more and that seems highly likely. 

Anywho, his TDs, provided he stays healthy, will almost certainly be between 15-20, his rushing will be around 1,500 or more and almost regardless of what he chips in in the receiving game it will be enough to keep him as a top 5 RB.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Henry is nothing like Brandon Jacobs. What a terrible comparison. Adrian Peterson is actually a really good comparison considering the lack of pass catching and both are big RB's that run really fast. And both are physical wearing defenses down and breaking off big physical runs where they throw off defenders. Henry is nothing like CJ2K, but Peterson is a fair comparison.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Henry saw only 28 targets this year and dropped three while producing just one yard per route run, which ranks 37th of 48 qualifying running backs.  All this while compiling more touches in 2019 than any other back.

He’s just not a very effective pass-catcher - and after three seasons, a variety of schemes/coaches, and a massive rise in touch volume, it just ain’t going to happen for him as a receiver at this point.

Why again are we deeming it “highly likely” that they commit to targeting him more often next season?  It can’t be because Dion Lewis is gone - they’ll just find a cheaper third-down replacement option for him.

 

Edited by BMcP
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Henry saw only 28 targets this year and dropped three while producing just one yard per route run, which ranks 37th of 48 qualifying running backs.  All this while compiling more touches in 2019 than any other back.

He’s just not a very effective pass-catcher - and after three seasons, a variety of schemes/coaches, and a massive rise in touch volume, it just ain’t going to happen for him as a receiver at this point.

Why again are we deeming it “highly likely” that they commit to targeting him more often next season?  It can’t be because Dion Lewis is gone - they’ll just find a cheaper third-down replacement option for him.

 

 

We will see about that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, devaster said:

Henry is nothing like Brandon Jacobs. What a terrible comparison. Adrian Peterson is actually a really good comparison considering the lack of pass catching and both are big RB's that run really fast. And both are physical wearing defenses down and breaking off big physical runs where they throw off defenders. Henry is nothing like CJ2K, but Peterson is a fair comparison.

I think in terms of running style and lack of break away speed and agility, he is closer to Jacobs. They run the same 40 yard dash and agility is similar, despite giving up 20 pounds to Henry.  Henry is a bruiser, like Jacobs the comp is very accurate. Both with limited catching ability. Peterson is faster more agile than Henry and Jacobs, Peterson was returning kicks his rookie season. 

Brandon Jacobs:  6'4 267  40 dash:  4.56   Three Cone: 7.53    20 yard shuttle: 4.46 Vert Jump: 37

Derrick Henry:     6'3 247   40 dash:  4.54   Three Cone: 7.20   20 yard shuttle:  4.38 Vert Jump: 37 

Adrian Peterson:  6'1 217  40 dash:  4.41    Three Cone: 7.09    20 yard shuttle 4.40  Vert Jump: 38.5

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I think in terms of running style and lack of break away speed and agility, he is closer to Jacobs. They run the same 40 yard dash and agility is similar, despite giving up 20 pounds to Henry.  Henry is a bruiser, like Jacobs the comp is very accurate. Both with limited catching ability. Peterson is faster more agile than Henry and Jacobs, Peterson was returning kicks his rookie season. 

Brandon Jacobs:  6'4 267  40 dash:  4.56   Three Cone: 7.53    20 yard shuttle: 4.46 Vert Jump: 37

Derrick Henry:     6'3 247   40 dash:  4.54   Three Cone: 7.20   20 yard shuttle:  4.38 Vert Jump: 37 

Adrian Peterson:  6'1 217  40 dash:  4.41    Three Cone: 7.09    20 yard shuttle 4.40  Vert Jump: 38.5

 

And also

As he continues to impress evaluators with his play this season, I reached out to five NFL personnel executives and asked them to make an NFL player comp for Henry. Here are their answers.

Executive 1: Brandon Jacobs
"Hard one, but I'll say Brandon Jacobs in his prime. Both are tall guys, although Henry is a little faster."

Executive 2: LeGarrette Blount
"Reminds me of Blount. Big upper bodies, leaner lower half. Both lack ideal foot quickness and wiggle when things get congested near the line of scrimmage. Both need space and room to operate."

Executive 3: Eddie Lacy
"He reminds me of another Alabama runner, Eddie Lacy. Similar style."

Executive 4: Brandon Jacobs
"First guy that comes to mind is Jacobs. Not many guys that size to compare."

Executive 5: Brandon Jacobs
"Same size. Same everything."

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

And also

As he continues to impress evaluators with his play this season, I reached out to five NFL personnel executives and asked them to make an NFL player comp for Henry. Here are their answers.

Executive 1: Brandon Jacobs
"Hard one, but I'll say Brandon Jacobs in his prime. Both are tall guys, although Henry is a little faster."

Executive 2: LeGarrette Blount
"Reminds me of Blount. Big upper bodies, leaner lower half. Both lack ideal foot quickness and wiggle when things get congested near the line of scrimmage. Both need space and room to operate."

Executive 3: Eddie Lacy
"He reminds me of another Alabama runner, Eddie Lacy. Similar style."

Executive 4: Brandon Jacobs
"First guy that comes to mind is Jacobs. Not many guys that size to compare."

Executive 5: Brandon Jacobs
"Same size. Same everything."

Is this a quote from an article?  Or did you actually reach out yourself?  Just curious.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook
  • tonycpsu locked this topic
  • tonycpsu unlocked this topic
  • tonycpsu unlocked and locked this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...