DerrickHenrysCleats

Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook

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50 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Yeah - it was really weird as it seemed to undercut your arguments for no reason.  And raise questions about how much you actually watched the Titans play games in 2019.

 

No harm done. My preseason prediction for Henry last year was right on the money so I see enough of them to know what I'm talking about in respect to Henrys value 

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

No harm done. My preseason prediction for Henry last year was right on the money so I see enough of them to know what I'm talking about in respect to Henrys value 

Your “preseason prediction” has been the opposite of spot-on for years running.  Forgive me for not buying into it.  

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9 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Is the line really that good? Did it change a whole lot from 2018 besides the addition of  Saffold? Cuss I personally thought the line was just good and Henry was great but I don’t really know how to judge line play. 

Line play wasnt all that good. Its solid, and should be much better considering how much money the Titans invested in the oline. 2016 has to be the best oline Titans has had in a long time. They still need to address the right side of the line since they let Conklin go... and Im pretty sure they are going to get a RT with the early picks.

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11 hours ago, BMcP said:

Your “preseason prediction” has been the opposite of spot-on for years running.  Forgive me for not buying into it.  

 

Henry ended the 2017 season in a similar fashion as he did 2018, not fantasy playoff MVP but finished the season good. Off-season saw the coaches get fired, new staff brought in and Dion Lewis added to the roster. Henry struggled early in the season as the team struggled with Oline injuries and inconsistent QB play. The 2nd half of the season showed a renewed commitment to using Henry and getting the OLine healthy as well, still with inconsistent QB play and Henry was the best RB in fantasy football (PPR or Standard scoring) weeks 13-17. So now here we are heading into 2019.

 

Henry looks like he will have the same coaches in place and this will be a contract year for Henry, so if you believe players in a contract year try harder than normal you might be able to inflate Henrys #s a little more than even what I predict. With the season ending and Henry being the clear cut workhorse I would like to think that mindset carries over into next season. Henry is a career 4+ypc RB every season. For 2019 with QB play still to be a concern I will set his ypc at 4.6, seems reasonable based on Henrys history. I would hope for him to average 16 carries a game which would get him to 1,251 rushing yards. I would love to see Henry get 3 passing game looks per game to keep the defense honest so I'd guesstimate 51 pass attempts just guessing about 41 receptions for an 8 yard average would be 328 yards. He had 12 rushing TDs this year with like 0 in the first 10 games.

 

With coaching staff continuity and hopefully still a top 10 OLine Henry can get to 1,600 totals yards and since he will be the GL back and is a honerun hitter I'll set his total TDs at 15.

 

That's a late 1st round RB in most fantasy drafts and of course his ceiling is as high as the elite named RBs.

 

 

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I would love to see Henry get 3 passing game looks per game to keep the defense honest so I'd guesstimate 51 pass attempts just guessing about 41 receptions for an 8 yard average would be 328 yards.

 
41 receptions is awful high for him. He only has 50 something career receptions. Only has 70 something catching if you count every catch he’s ever had since his freshman year at Alabama 

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3 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 
41 receptions is awful high for him. He only has 50 something career receptions. Only has 70 something catching if you count every catch he’s ever had since his freshman year at Alabama 

 

No doubt about that. I never said Henry is an advance route runner. My whole reasoning for those numbers was because I thought you would want to get Henry out in space on a few screens per game. That never materialized the way I had hoped with Dion Lewis still on the team he absorbed most those snaps. I'm still of the belief that Henry can be serviceable in the receiving department, 2 completed screen passes per game would be 32 catches so for someone so dominant in the running game that's plenty to boost your PPR value.

 

Still moves to be made and the draft has to go down but so far Tennessee has not added an experience pass catching RB so maybe they will incorporate him more in that respect in 2020.

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2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

No doubt about that. I never said Henry is an advance route runner. My whole reasoning for those numbers was because I thought you would want to get Henry out in space on a few screens per game. That never materialized the way I had hoped with Dion Lewis still on the team he absorbed most those snaps. I'm still of the belief that Henry can be serviceable in the receiving department, 2 completed screen passes per game would be 32 catches so for someone so dominant in the running game that's plenty to boost your PPR value.

 

Still moves to be made and the draft has to go down but so far Tennessee has not added an experience pass catching RB so maybe they will incorporate him more in that respect in 2020.

I congratulate you on nailing the 2019 prediction - even I (of all people) was touting Henry as a future RB1 and likely draft-day bargain after watching him in late 2018.

Why didn’t you mention your touts in 2017 and 2018?

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Actually, I retract my last comment - it was too snarky and disrespectful.  I’ve enjoyed watching Henry develop as a player and happy for his success.  And for your joy in watching him.

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23 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I congratulate you on nailing the 2019 prediction - even I (of all people) was touting Henry as a future RB1 and likely draft-day bargain after watching him in late 2018.

Why didn’t you mention your touts in 2017 and 2018?

 

They finally fired the coaches as I had touted for 2 years.

 

We can go back that far but the waters get muddy and people lose interest trying to keep track.

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Posted (edited)

If the Titans pick up a 3rd down running back who is competent I would also have Drake and Miles Sanders over him 12 picks or so later based on the recent developments. I think both of those teams have big rebounds and they involve their rb in the passing game. 

 

That being said, it looks good so far for Henry and I am very interested to see if they involve him more in the passing game in PRESEASON, which we really can't say until week 3. They are gonna work him into the ground, their division is terrible (great game scripts), and if he gets up into the 35-40 catch range he wil be worth a top 10 pick, but we can agree history shows that NOT how they use him and your gonna be looking at a lot of weeks where its TD or bust. That being said things can change and rbs are a premium there are SO many WRs of value in 3/4/5 round.  

Edited by nmartinez12443

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47 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

If the Titans pick up a 3rd down running back who is competent I would also have Drake and Miles Sanders over him 12 picks or so later based on the recent developments. I think both of those teams have big rebounds and they involve their rb in the passing game. 

 

That being said, it looks good so far for Henry and I am very interested to see if they involve him more in the passing game in PRESEASON, which we really can't say until week 3. They are gonna work him into the ground, their division is terrible (great game scripts), and if he gets up into the 35-40 catch range he wil be worth a top 10 pick, but we can agree history shows that NOT how they use him and your gonna be looking at a lot of weeks where its TD or bust. That being said things can change and rbs are a premium there are SO many WRs of value in 3/4/5 round.  


still banging on about the passing game lol

GL taking miles sanders before King Henry.   Hope that Pederson changes his stripes 

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54 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

If the Titans pick up a 3rd down running back who is competent I would also have Drake and Miles Sanders over him 12 picks or so later based on the recent developments. I think both of those teams have big rebounds and they involve their rb in the passing game. 

 

That being said, it looks good so far for Henry and I am very interested to see if they involve him more in the passing game in PRESEASON, which we really can't say until week 3. They are gonna work him into the ground, their division is terrible (great game scripts), and if he gets up into the 35-40 catch range he wil be worth a top 10 pick, but we can agree history shows that NOT how they use him and your gonna be looking at a lot of weeks where its TD or bust. That being said things can change and rbs are a premium there are SO many WRs of value in 3/4/5 round.  

If Henry got 40+ receptions he would be the number 1 overall running back most likely. 

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Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

If Henry got 40+ receptions he would be the number 1 overall running back most likely. 

Yep.   Henry’s success or failure will be determined by the running game.    Receptions are a bonus.   They’re either a dominant running team with a qb who can make timely plays to keep the offense on the field...or Henry will struggle like he has at times.    20 receptions...35 receptions...doesn’t really matter.   

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Rather than continue on about his (relatively non-existent) role in the passing game, I’m surprised more isn’t being made about his 386 carries last year.  The track record of backs coming off such monster workloads is...not great.

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39 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Yep.   Henry’s success or failure will be determined by the running game.    Receptions are a bonus.   They’re either a dominant running team with a qb who can make timely plays to keep the offense on the field...or Henry will struggle like he has at times.    20 receptions...35 receptions...doesn’t really matter.   

Yeah, but the lack of passing also effects his snap counts. Look at last year when the titans were losing he comes off the field, because that is NOT his role. So you also have to hope that they will be winning or up in games in the late 3rd and 4th and looking at that division (jags, houston, and colts) that won't be the hardest thing in the world. You also need to hope for a TD which are extremely fluky sometimes look at Zeke or Fournette. 

Hey I'll soften on Henry a little if they don't sign anyone worth their salt in the passing game. Fournette also wasn't the biggest pass catcher either and he exploded last year. 

 

Thing is Henry his entire nfl career and college career was NOT a pass catcher, can he do it maybe, but we've heard the same thing about Adrian Peterson getting more involved and it never happened. 

 

Everyone was pegging Henry as a 3/4 rounder in FULL ppr  in 2018 because he doesn't catch passes. We all acknowledge that he gets yards and tds, which he got buckets of in 2019, but still was a liability in the passing game which is a deathblow in ppr. The thing is on these forums we only remember what happened 5 minutes ago and forget his big 2019 doesn't carry over. 

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10 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Yeah, but the lack of passing also effects his snap counts. Look at last year when the titans were losing he comes off the field, because that is NOT his role. So you also have to hope that they will be winning or up in games in the late 3rd and 4th and looking at that division (jags, houston, and colts) that won't be the hardest thing in the world. You also need to hope for a TD which are extremely fluky sometimes look at Zeke or Fournette. 

Hey I'll soften on Henry a little if they don't sign anyone worth their salt in the passing game. Fournette also wasn't the biggest pass catcher either and he exploded last year. 

 

Thing is Henry his entire nfl career and college career was NOT a pass catcher, can he do it maybe, but we've heard the same thing about Adrian Peterson getting more involved and it never happened. 

 

Everyone was pegging Henry as a 3/4 rounder in FULL ppr  in 2018 because he doesn't catch passes. We all acknowledge that he gets yards and tds, which he got buckets of in 2019, but still was a liability in the passing game which is a deathblow in ppr. The thing is on these forums we only remember what happened 5 minutes ago and forget his big 2019 doesn't carry over. 

That’s why signing Tannehill was paramount. Mariota could not execute even the simple garbage offense they designed for him.

If they would have had Tanny all season DH would have been close to CMAC for Rb1.   I’m not expecting that level of efficiency in year 2-  but 350 touches feels very possible.  

2000 yards is within reach 

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2 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

If the Titans pick up a 3rd down running back who is competent I would also have Drake and Miles Sanders over him 12 picks or so later based on the recent developments. I think both of those teams have big rebounds and they involve their rb in the passing game. 

 

That being said, it looks good so far for Henry and I am very interested to see if they involve him more in the passing game in PRESEASON, which we really can't say until week 3. They are gonna work him into the ground, their division is terrible (great game scripts), and if he gets up into the 35-40 catch range he wil be worth a top 10 pick, but we can agree history shows that NOT how they use him and your gonna be looking at a lot of weeks where its TD or bust. That being said things can change and rbs are a premium there are SO many WRs of value in 3/4/5 round.  

 

It's nice to see you backing off your original statement of saying he wasn't worth a 1st or 2nd round pick and has now conceded he could be a top 10 pick. Baby steps.

 

Henry was playing in games where the Titans were down 14 and 17 points or more sometimes so how far down would they need to be in order to get game scripted out?

 

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

2000 yards is within reach 

He finished more than 250 yards below this in one of the most productive seasons in NFL history.  I don’t think it’s wise to expect that he’s going to eclipse his total yardage mark by ~250 yards the year after handling an immense workload.

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

Yep.   Henry’s success or failure will be determined by the running game.    Receptions are a bonus.   They’re either a dominant running team with a qb who can make timely plays to keep the offense on the field...or Henry will struggle like he has at times.    20 receptions...35 receptions...doesn’t really matter.   

 

Interesting. Henry was within 100 receiving yards of both Joe Mixon and Mark Ingram last season.

 

It seems he does well enough in the receiving game to complement how elite of a running back that he is.

 

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8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

It's nice to see you backing off your original statement of saying he wasn't worth a 1st or 2nd round pick and has now conceded he could be a top 10 pick. Baby steps.

 

Henry was playing in games where the Titans were down 14 and 17 points or more sometimes so how far down would they need to be in order to get game scripted out?

 

Henry is also very dependent on his team’s game script. In wins, he averaged 128.8 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns. But in losses he was pitiful, putting up 63.5 rushing yards and 0.67 rushing scores per contest. Because he isn’t much of a receiver, Henry’s fantasy prospects are dependent on whether the Titans are in a position where they can let their big back ice the game away.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/23/21077730/derrick-henry-tennessee-titans-fantasy-football-draft-outlook

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24 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

 

 

Everyone was pegging Henry as a 3/4 rounder in FULL ppr  in 2018 because he doesn't catch passes. We all acknowledge that he gets yards and tds, which he got buckets of in 2019, but still was a liability in the passing game which is a deathblow in ppr. The thing is on these forums we only remember what happened 5 minutes ago and forget his big 2019 doesn't carry over. 

 

He scored 12 TDs in 2018 on only 220 touches.

 

If he makes up the difference in PPR by scoring TDs does that really matter? It doesn't to me. 

 

I haven't heard anyone in this thread claim Henry is an elite pass catcher. He is not. He is however the most explosive RB in the NFL. He scores TDs from everywhere on the field. Those monster rushes and TDs make up for plenty of PPR stats and is part of Henrys game. He has done it since high school. He has done it the past 2 seasons since being the starter.

 

His lack of receiving is being overblown. He scored 60 fantasy points in the receiving game alone last season.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Henry is also very dependent on his team’s game script. In wins, he averaged 128.8 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns. But in losses he was pitiful, putting up 63.5 rushing yards and 0.67 rushing scores per contest. Because he isn’t much of a receiver, Henry’s fantasy prospects are dependent on whether the Titans are in a position where they can let their big back ice the game away.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platfor

8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

m/amp/nfl/2020/1/23/21077730/derrick-henry-tennessee-titans-fantasy-football-draft-outlook

Historically, players who notch incredible postseason runs do pretty well the following season as well. Following his record-setting 1997 postseason, Terrell Davis put in one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever in 1998 (and then tore his ACL in 1999). Thurman Thomas was the no. 2 running back in fantasy a year after his 1991 playoff run. Eddie George was a top-three running back in 2000. And Emmitt Smith is Emmitt Smith. The only outlier on this list is Sony Michel, who after a 336-yard, six-touchdown performance in last season’s playoffs was a fantasy afterthought in 2019. (The lesson, as always, is: never draft Patriots running backs.)

 

so based off these stats Henry should have a better season?

 

4 of those losses were with Mariota at QB. I think we can both agree that Henry got more efficient after Tannehill was inserted into the lineup.

 

 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Historically, players who notch incredible postseason runs do pretty well the following season as well. Following his record-setting 1997 postseason, Terrell Davis put in one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever in 1998 (and then tore his ACL in 1999). Thurman Thomas was the no. 2 running back in fantasy a year after his 1991 playoff run. Eddie George was a top-three running back in 2000. And Emmitt Smith is Emmitt Smith. The only outlier on this list is Sony Michel, who after a 336-yard, six-touchdown performance in last season’s playoffs was a fantasy afterthought in 2019. (The lesson, as always, is: never draft Patriots running backs.)

 

so based off these stats Henry should have a better season?

 

4 of those losses were with Mariota at QB. I think we can both agree that Henry got more efficient after Tannehill was inserted into the lineup.

 

 

Yes: because it happened four times in the history of the league, we should definitely presume that an even better season is incoming....

My point essentially was that, unless you expect the Titans of 2020 to go on some sort of massive tear, there are going to be many fantasy weeks where it will actively hurt you to have Henry plugged in as your RB1.

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21 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

That’s why signing Tannehill was paramount. Mariota could not execute even the simple garbage offense they designed for him.

If they would have had Tanny all season DH would have been close to CMAC for Rb1.   I’m not expecting that level of efficiency in year 2-  but 350 touches feels very possible.  

2000 yards is within reach 

 

^^^^^ This is a very astute observation.

 

First 4 games Titans didn't have Taylor Lewan

 

First 7 games Titans started Mariota who definitely stunted the entire offense, Henry especially.

 

Now Titans will start with Tannehill and Lewan but will be replacing Jack Conklin with Dennis Kelly at RT, all things considered seems like a net positive for Henry heading into 2020 with his franchise QB and LT healthy and ready.

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Just now, BMcP said:

Yes: because it happened four times in the history of the league, we should definitely presume that an even better season is incoming....

My point essentially was that, unless you expect the Titans of 2020 to go on some sort of massive tear, there are going to be many fantasy weeks where it will actively hurt you to have Henry plugged in as your RB1.

 

By many fantasy weeks what do you mean? Is that a specific #? 

 

Cause every RB in the league, PPR or not has weeks where he doesn't do great. 

I don't think 2020 Titans have to have a historic run for Henry to have a top 6 RB season. 

 

People keep saying "making history" or a "historical season"

In 2018 Henry "made history" with his incredible run weeks 10-16

In 2019 Henry "made history" with his 99 yard TD run and playoff run.

 

I think making history comes naturally to El Tractorcito.

 

Hopefully PPR guys don't wait until round 3 or 4 to draft Henry like the experts at The Ringer website suggested to do last season.

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