Corleone

DeVante Parker 2020 Outlook

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The Good, The Bad and The Unknown for DeVante Parker

**The Good**
1. After four disappointing seasons to open his career, Parker exploded for his first 1000 yard season in 2019.
2. In fact, his 1,202 receiving yards were 5th in the NFL.
3. He also caught 9 TD’s, which was good for 4th in the NFL.
4. Overall, Parker finished as the #6 fantasy WR in Standard. He was #7 in half PPR. And he was #11 in full PPR.
5. From Week 4 through the rest of the season, Parker was the #2 WR in both Standard and half PPR. And he was #3 in full PPR.
6. With a contract extension in mid-December, Parker is signed through the 2023 season, so the path is there to remain Miami’s #1 WR.

**The Bad**
1. Parker was disappointing his first four seasons in the league (a bust), never coming close to meeting his first round draft pick status for Miami. 
2. He never played 16 games before 2019, with yearly totals of 15, 15, 13 and 11 through 2018.
3. Since 2010, there are 105 WR’s with at least 200 catches. DeVante Parker ranks 80th out of 105 in catch percentage, at 57.6%. While there have been some big fantasy producers ranked even lower than Parker, this group is filled with plenty of underachievers.

**The Unknown**
1. Who will Parker’s QB be in 2020? Parker took off once Ryan Fitzpatrick established himself as Miami’s QB in 2019. Fitz also did just announce a couple of days ago, that he plans to return in 2020. And Miami’s new offensive coordinator is Chan Gailey. Fitzpatrick has lots of experience (and his best success) under Gailey, when he was the head coach for Buffalo and the offensive coordinator for the Jets. Will that mean good productivity for Fitzpatrick in 2020?
2. It’s possible Fitzpatrick will open as Miami’s 2020 starter…but they may draft a QB in the 1st round of the draft. Could that lead to a rookie QB for Parker at some point? It may be that Miami drafts Tua Tagovailoa…who could well have a “redshirt season” as he recovers from his hip injury and learns under Fitzpatrick.
3. Will Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki (or possibly others) put a dent into Parker’s target totals? Williams had his moments in 2019 before a season-ending injury, while Gesicki had his moments late in the year. While Williams has to recover in full from his injury, some people consider him a 2020 fantasy sleeper.
4. Will the Dolphins have an improved running game? It’s almost impossible to not improve. Fitzpatrick led the 2019 team in rushing, with just 243 yards. The highest total from a RB was 201 yards from Mark Walton. As a whole, the team was dead last in the NFL for team rushing yards. Any improvement in rushing could take away from the passing game (and the same is true is there is an improved defense, in which high pass attempt games may not be as prevalent).

We’ll know a lot more about Parker for 2020, once we see what Miami does in the draft and free agency. But for right now, he’s got several good points to be excited about, as well as several bad or questionable points that can make one pump the brakes.

Edited by Corleone
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As of 2/3, here's where several publications rank Parker amongst WR's:

--#16 WR at Fantasy Pros (both Standard and PPR)
--#17 WR at Sporting News (Standard)
--#17 WR at NFL.com (PPR)
--#24 WR at ESPN (PPR)
--#28 WR at PFF (PPR)

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:



**The Unknown**
1. Who will Parker’s QB be in 2020? Parker took off once Ryan Fitzpatrick established himself as Miami’s QB in 2019. Fitz also did just announce a couple of days ago, that he plans to return in 2020. And Miami’s new offensive coordinator is Chan Gailey. Fitzpatrick has lots of experience (and his best success) under Gailey, when he was the head coach for Buffalo and the offensive coordinator for the Jets. Will that mean good productivity for Fitzpatrick in 2020?
2. It’s possible Fitzpatrick will open as Miami’s 2020 starter…but they may draft a QB in the 1st round of the draft. Could that lead to a rookie QB for Parker at some point? It may be that Miami drafts Tua Tagovailoa…who could well have a “redshirt season” as he recovers from his hip injury and learns under Fitzpatrick.
3. Will Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki (or possibly others) put a dent into Parker’s target totals? Williams had his moments in 2019 before a season-ending injury, while Gesicki had his moments late in the year. While Williams has to recover in full from his injury, some people consider him a 2020 fantasy sleeper.


We’ll know a lot more about Parker for 2020, once we see what Miami does in the draft and free agency. But for right now, he’s got several good points to be excited about, as well as several bad or questionable points that can make one pump the brakes.

It's these unknowns that make me worried about drafting Parker as a next year, namely about his QB and whether Fitzpatrick will actually start the whole year.  Using the predraft rankings you posted, though with the caveat that I haven't really thought about next year's rankings yet, Parker in the mid teens (WR2) feels risky, but the mid twenties (WR3) feels acceptable.  

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11 hours ago, ZappB said:

It's these unknowns that make me worried about drafting Parker as a next year, namely about his QB and whether Fitzpatrick will actually start the whole year.  Using the predraft rankings you posted, though with the caveat that I haven't really thought about next year's rankings yet, Parker in the mid teens (WR2) feels risky, but the mid twenties (WR3) feels acceptable.  

That’s a reasonable take. 

As of right now, considering the situations of all the WR’s and what I think may happen going forward, here’s where I see Parker...

—WR’s I would definitely draft over him:
1. Thomas
2. Hopkins
3. D.Adams
4. Tyreek
5. Godwin
6. Julio
7. Golladay
8. Kupp
9. Evans

—WR’s I might draft ahead of him:
10. K.Allen (who will his QB be?)
11. A.Robinson (who will his QB be?)
12. OBJ (what are camp reports like?)
13. Edelman (who will his QB be?)
14. R.Woods (will Goff continue to falter?)
15. Ridley (I prob would rather have him)
16. DJ Moore (who will his QB be?)
17. C.Sutton (how is Lock developing in camp?)
18. D.Samuel (is he showing signs in camp of a leap?
19. JuJu (is Ben healthy and can JuJu hold off other young WR’s on team?)

—WR’s I think I’d take DeVante over:
Amari (obv he will go higher than this, but I won’t be the one to draft him), Diggs & Thielen, Lockett & Metcalf, Chark, McLaurin, AJ Brown, John Brown, Gallup, Landry and everyone else. 

There are A LOT of WR’s close in value IMO. 2020 will be a year to take RB’s with high draft picks/auction dollars more than ever. There will be WR’s available later.

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:


There are A LOT of WR’s close in value IMO. 2020 will be a year to take RB’s with high draft picks/auction dollars more than ever. There will be WR’s available later.

Parker would definitely be someone I would target as my WR1 if I wanted to go RB heavy early.   Assuming Fitzmagic is the starter.

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24 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Parker would definitely be someone I would target as my WR1 if I wanted to go RB heavy early.   Assuming Fitzmagic is the starter.

I can see that for sure. I do like the idea of getting him as a second WR drafted in snake drafts if possible, while Parker can be snagged later. And then let them fight it out to see who your own team’s WR1 is. 

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5 hours ago, Corleone said:

That’s a reasonable take. 

As of right now, considering the situations of all the WR’s and what I think may happen going forward, here’s where I see Parker...

—WR’s I would definitely draft over him:
1. Thomas
2. Hopkins
3. D.Adams
4. Tyreek
5. Godwin
6. Julio
7. Golladay
8. Kupp
9. Evans

—WR’s I might draft ahead of him:
10. K.Allen (who will his QB be?)
11. A.Robinson (who will his QB be?)
12. OBJ (what are camp reports like?)
13. Edelman (who will his QB be?)
14. R.Woods (will Goff continue to falter?)
15. Ridley (I prob would rather have him)
16. DJ Moore (who will his QB be?)
17. C.Sutton (how is Lock developing in camp?)
18. D.Samuel (is he showing signs in camp of a leap?
19. JuJu (is Ben healthy and can JuJu hold off other young WR’s on team?)

—WR’s I think I’d take DeVante over:
Amari (obv he will go higher than this, but I won’t be the one to draft him), Diggs & Thielen, Lockett & Metcalf, Chark, McLaurin, AJ Brown, John Brown, Gallup, Landry and everyone else. 

There are A LOT of WR’s close in value IMO. 2020 will be a year to take RB’s with high draft picks/auction dollars more than ever. There will be WR’s available later.

I definitely agree about there being a lot of WRs close in value, with great talent after the first few rounds, and next year looking like a year to invest in RB early.  

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There's a lot more no's for yes's than me on him.   I've always thought he had the talent and though i didnt have him last season i enjoyed watching him break out.   However, a sea change is coming to Miami.  He's a guy to build around and he could maintain WR1 status, but there are a lot of factors here- new QB perhaps, new run game that HAS to be an upgrade.  Maybe a much better defense?  Was DeVante's 2019 a case of the light turning on, or opportunity just knocking more than it will again this coming year?

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45 minutes ago, BrianM said:

There's a lot more no's for yes's than me on him.   I've always thought he had the talent and though i didnt have him last season i enjoyed watching him break out.   However, a sea change is coming to Miami.  He's a guy to build around and he could maintain WR1 status, but there are a lot of factors here- new QB perhaps, new run game that HAS to be an upgrade.  Maybe a much better defense?  Was DeVante's 2019 a case of the light turning on, or opportunity just knocking more than it will again this coming year?

Pretty sure Fitzmagic will be the QB next year again. Im all in if so.

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4 hours ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Pretty sure Fitzmagic will be the QB next year again. Im all in if so.

 

At least for the first few games, if not the whole season. Even if they would bring in Tua or whatever.

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6 hours ago, thebadferret said:

 

At least for the first few games, if not the whole season. Even if they would bring in Tua or whatever.

Yeah, Tua wouldn’t be a serious threat to Fitzy in 2020.

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm in.

Yup as a keeper owner I'm liking this. Stay healthy Tua. 

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Shether its Fitz or Tua...I'm confident Parker and Williams have good years.

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On 2/3/2020 at 8:36 PM, Corleone said:

**The Unknown**
1. Who will Parker’s QB be in 2020? Parker took off once Ryan Fitzpatrick established himself as Miami’s QB in 2019. Fitz also did just announce a couple of days ago, that he plans to return in 2020. And Miami’s new offensive coordinator is Chan Gailey. Fitzpatrick has lots of experience (and his best success) under Gailey, when he was the head coach for Buffalo and the offensive coordinator for the Jets. Will that mean good productivity for Fitzpatrick in 2020?
2. It’s possible Fitzpatrick will open as Miami’s 2020 starter…but they may draft a QB in the 1st round of the draft. Could that lead to a rookie QB for Parker at some point? It may be that Miami drafts Tua Tagovailoa…who could well have a “redshirt season” as he recovers from his hip injury and learns under Fitzpatrick.

Round 1 of the draft went as well as possible in regards to the above for DeVante Parker IMO.

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2 hours ago, Corleone said:

Round 1 of the draft went as well as possible in regards to the above for DeVante Parker IMO.

 

Agreed, got a nice OT as well to help protect.

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4 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

We'll see about that.

Saw this one coming...yep, that’s beginning to look like the wrong call. 😂

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Love Parker as a WR2 this year.  Capable of WR1 weeks but also seemed to have a nice floor.  No added competition in the draft or FA.  Tua may sit for a year, or at the last beginning of the season, so having Fitz back there slinging makes Parker a really nice option for WR2 on your team.  

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I can’t believe the value I’m seeing in rankings and drafts.


The guy was among the most consistent WRs in 2019 with plenty of upside, plenty of targets, and had his way with Gilmore.

 

Fitz or Tua...Preston back?...

 

Does it really matter?

 

That big of a sample size tells me it wasn’t a fluke it was a man finally coming into his own.

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3 minutes ago, Proteus said:

I can’t believe the value I’m seeing in rankings and drafts.


The guy was among the most consistent WRs in 2019 with plenty of upside, plenty of targets, and had his way with Gilmore.

 

Fitz or Tua...Preston back?...

 

Does it really matter?

 

That big of a sample size tells me it wasn’t a fluke it was a man finally coming into his own.

He had his way with Gilmore in one game: 8-137 but in the other game against him he had 0-0 on 7 targets

 

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41 minutes ago, hockeyfan77 said:

He had his way with Gilmore in one game: 8-137 but in the other game against him he had 0-0 on 7 targets

 

 

Yeah, that was week 2 of the new coaching staff, just got blown out by Baltimore week 1, still reeling.

 

Parker, after week 3, only had 1 game the rest of the season where he posted under 11 points in ppr.

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