Ecofolux

Justin Verlander 2020 Outlook

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Entering his age 37 season is scary but he's showing no signs of slowing down. Velocity is still mid-90s, his ungodly SwStr% is 16.1, and he hasn't missed a start since 2015. Verlander has been absolutely amazing, carrying pitching staffs. Question is, how much longer can he go?

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Treat him like the massive once in a generation ace he is (re longevity). There’s no reason to assume the falloff this year. Would be surprised if he was not a t5 pitcher.

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2 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Treat him like the massive once in a generation ace he is (re longevity). There’s no reason to assume the falloff this year. Would be surprised if he was not a t5 pitcher.

[...]


Absurd. No reason to assume falloff this year? How about the fact that Father Time catches up to everyone?

 

Im not saying it’s guaranteed it comes crashing down to end an this year for JV, but to say that there’s nothing to worry about is equally unreasonable. 

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20 minutes ago, UberRebel said:


Absurd. No reason to assume falloff this year? How about the fact that Father Time catches up to everyone?

 

Im not saying it’s guaranteed it comes crashing down to end an this year for JV, but to say that there’s nothing to worry about is equally unreasonable. 

Although I'd love to have him,I wont. In a draft,he'll have to be taken instead of a stud bat like Jdm or Freeman most likely.  With the age and the innings mileage,its just too risky (for me) to "gamble" that early.  Although I wouldn't fault anyone who did take him,given that pretty much every ace has a lot of question marks.

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46 minutes ago, UberRebel said:


Absurd. No reason to assume falloff this year? How about the fact that Father Time catches up to everyone?

 

Im not saying it’s guaranteed it comes crashing down to end an this year for JV, but to say that there’s nothing to worry about is equally unreasonable. 

There’s no warning signs, velo loss, recent injuries, etc. He’s got as much risk as any stud pitcher. All of them can get injured. But his track record as a horse and lack of red flags mean that the spectre of age is overblown.

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Nolan Ryan led the league in strikeouts for 4 years in a row ... after the age of 39.  he also led the league in ERA once and in WIP twice.

 

 

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Here's my take on Verlander. I can't see myself owning him.. father time is just too scary of a dude. That being said, if a year from now I looked back at Verlanders 2020 campaign and he posted 250k's, 2.80ERA, 1.10 WHIP, I wouldn't be surprised. This is the ultimate case of risk vs. reward.

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So that brings up the question: would anyone pass on Verlander to take someone like Snell/Clev/Bieber/Buehler just because they're young? 

It seems that people are worried about father time, but the thing is, it could be 4 years from now. Any pitcher can go at anytime, Verlander has shown his body can handle it. Whether it's supreme mechanics or elite genetics... 3000 career innings and still throwing 95-96 consistently (still touching 97-98) is no joke

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At this point I'm less scared of Father Time than I am Dr Andrews.

Yes, he's old but his profile is outstanding. His track record of health should be a sign of reliability.

Edited by StevieStats
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If the ball is de-juiced this year Verlander is one of those guys who can benefit the most from it. He was untouchable last year besides for giving up a ton of home runs.

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33 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

At this point I'm less scared of Father Time than I am Dr Andrews.

Yes, he's old but his profile is outstanding. His track record of health should be a sign of reliability.

Just to clarify... I mean this as in I'm less scared of Verlander vs Father Time than I am young up and comers going to Dr Andrews.

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29 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

If the ball is de-juiced this year Verlander is one of those guys who can benefit the most from it. He was untouchable last year besides for giving up a ton of home runs.

IMO if the ball is in fact de-juiced this year the aces lose a little bit of value as those middle of the road pitchers come at better prices with better results from previous juiced years. 

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57 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

So that brings up the question: would anyone pass on Verlander to take someone like Snell/Clev/Bieber/Buehler just because they're young? 

Yes, yes, yes, and yes. All those guys I would take over Verlander right now. Even if Verlander puts up another great year, those 4 guys shouldn't be too far behind, with many years ahead of them. Of course, this all depends on the league too. In a redraft, it would be a tossup.

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1 hour ago, Ecofolux said:

So that brings up the question: would anyone pass on Verlander to take someone like Snell/Clev/Bieber/Buehler just because they're young? 

It seems that people are worried about father time, but the thing is, it could be 4 years from now. Any pitcher can go at anytime, Verlander has shown his body can handle it. Whether it's supreme mechanics or elite genetics... 3000 career innings and still throwing 95-96 consistently (still touching 97-98) is no joke

Yes 

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18 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

IMO if the ball is in fact de-juiced this year the aces lose a little bit of value as those middle of the road pitchers come at better prices with better results from previous juiced years. 

 

Well not exactly, Verlander really struggled with the HR ball. He let up 36 HR which is a lot for anyone, especially an ace. He'd probably be the #1 pitcher if he can pitch like he did last year with a de-juiced ball. He let up 7 more HR than Gerrit Cole, and more than just about any other ace. So relatively, Verlander stands to gain.

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If you own stock in Verlander, it’s a great time to sell in keeper/dynasties. Yeah, he probably will put up Cy Young Award numbers this year, but the more he throws as he pushes 40, the more his value will depreciate because he is getting older.

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28 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

If you own stock in Verlander, it’s a great time to sell in keeper/dynasties. Yeah, he probably will put up Cy Young Award numbers this year, but the more he throws as he pushes 40, the more his value will depreciate because he is getting older.

If you're rebuilding, why haven't you sold Verlander already?

If you're competing, why would you trade away an ace pitcher to another contender?

For my part, I'd rather hold the older ace with excellent peripherals than trade him for a lesser pitcher who could still easily get hurt or regress.

Edited by Hanghow
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52 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

If you own stock in Verlander, it’s a great time to sell in keeper/dynasties. Yeah, he probably will put up Cy Young Award numbers this year, but the more he throws as he pushes 40, the more his value will depreciate because he is getting older.

Unless you are competing for a title. Then you ride him to the sunset. 

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7 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Justin Verlander is the Nelson Cruz of pitchers.  

 

Anecdotal but doesn't mean anything. Cruz faces the same risks of facing a sudden decline.They can keep dominating but the decline is inevitable and likely will be fast.

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Well not exactly, Verlander really struggled with the HR ball. He let up 36 HR which is a lot for anyone, especially an ace. He'd probably be the #1 pitcher if he can pitch like he did last year with a de-juiced ball. He let up 7 more HR than Gerrit Cole, and more than just about any other ace. So relatively, Verlander stands to gain.

My point was not say Verlander would not be good it was to point out that the gap between the aces and the rest of the starters would close a bit and that the elite hitting approach to a draft might be starting to sway in its favor. Last few years having an ace or multiple aces was the recipe for a championship in a lot of the leagues I played in. 10 years ago good pitching was a dime a dozen which has been the case with hitting the last few years.

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37 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Anecdotal but doesn't mean anything. Cruz faces the same risks of facing a sudden decline.They can keep dominating but the decline is inevitable and likely will be fast.


Risks exist for any pitcher.  I agree with a previous poster that I’m almost more worried about a young pitcher being injured than Verlander falling off.  Verlander is timeless imo and I expect him to do well this season.  

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5 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Risks exist for any pitcher.  I agree with a previous poster that I’m almost more worried about a young pitcher being injured than Verlander falling off.  Verlander is timeless imo and I expect him to do well this season.  

 

You may be right, and people like me will continue to depress his price. I'd just rather take those age gambles later on. For instance, Nelson Cruz with an ADP of 91 versus Justin Verlander with an ADP of 14 seems much more attractive. Verlander is everything you'd expect an outlier to be, but he's still an outlier, and betting on an outlier is usually a losing proposition.

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

 

You may be right, and people like me will continue to depress his price. I'd just rather take those age gambles later on. For instance, Nelson Cruz with an ADP of 91 versus Justin Verlander with an ADP of 14 seems much more attractive. Verlander is everything you'd expect an outlier to be, but he's still an outlier, and betting on an outlier is usually a losing proposition.

But he is only an "outlier" in the age department. His profile is as outstanding and safe as they come. His swinging strikes, velocity, control, everything.

Do you avoid really young players because they are also "outliers" for being younger? Acuna is only 22, he's an outlier, do you avoid him too?

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7 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

But he is only an "outlier" in the age department. His profile is as outstanding and safe as they come. His swinging strikes, velocity, control, everything.

Do you avoid really young players because they are also "outliers" for being younger? Acuna is only 22, he's an outlier, do you avoid him too?

Trends trends trends. I understand what you're saying, and the logic behind it. But you HAVE to realize the regression factor WILL come at some point. IF is not the question, the question is WHEN.

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