Sign in to follow this  
Ecofolux

Justin Verlander 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

But he is only an "outlier" in the age department. His profile is as outstanding and safe as they come. His swinging strikes, velocity, control, everything.

Do you avoid really young players because they are also "outliers" for being younger? Acuna is only 22, he's an outlier, do you avoid him too?

 

I mean your premise is right, there's a lot of young players going early that have some risk attached, but its mostly because they haven't repeated production. Acuna has been elite for 3 years, but someone like Tatis, yes I am avoiding at his expectant price. At same time I think differently with a guy like Eloy or Robert who are going some 50 picks later so the risk is much less.

As I said Verlander has the qualities to be the outlier but overall its just a personal preference. He can be amazing but we don't know when the velocity will drop. If its this year, he will drop in all the other categories. Just because its been stable doesn't mean it will be this year. If Verlander wasn't such a high price I'd be a lot more willing to take the risk, but at that price there are several other stars to choose from. Scenario is difference for old guys going outside the first 5 rounds where the same upside may not be there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For any of you who play fantasy basketball, he kind of reminds me of LaMarcus Aldridge. Every year I don’t draft him because I feel like he’s getting to old, ever year he balls out. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

For any of you who play fantasy basketball, he kind of reminds me of LaMarcus Aldridge. Every year I don’t draft him because I feel like he’s getting to old, ever year he balls out. 

 

I was thinking Tom Brady for football. Time finally caught up to him in 2019.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

Trends trends trends. I understand what you're saying, and the logic behind it. But you HAVE to realize the regression factor WILL come at some point. IF is not the question, the question is WHEN.

Right, but there is zero sign of it in his profile. Wouldn't you like to see any tangible evidence of regression before you pass on ELITE production and not just pass on it because you think this year it randomly happens despite zero warning signs? The trend in his profile right now is sustainability.

94.8 velocity on goods fastball last year... Harder than he threw in 2013-2016 and on par with career average of 95.0.

Swinging strikes of 16.1% the best of his career, topping his previous best of 14.5% the year prior. Z-Contact of 77.7%, best of his career.

SIERA of 2.95 the 2nd best of his career.

1.70 BB9 the 2nd best of his career.

12.1 K9 the 2nd best of his career.

0.80 WHIP the best of his career.

 

Show me the decline.. Regression will come, as it always does, but regression typically comes with signs unless there is an injury. There are no signs of regression, only sustained reliability and new peaks of excellence. 

 

Someone mentioned Nolan Ryan earlier... In his 10 seasons from age 37 to 46, Nolan Ryan had a 3.36 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.165 WHIP, 9.8 K9 with 2,037 Ks... Led his league in strikeouts 4 straight years. Led in WHIP twice. Led K9 5 straight years. ERA once... Verlander is 37 this year... 

I'll by regression when I see it present itself. Until then I'll buy his elite production. 

Right now I've gone back to back with him... If he pitches like Ryan did at the end of his career "we're lookin at a minimum 8-peat ere Bahb"

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, charger_ss24 said:

If you own stock in Verlander, it’s a great time to sell in keeper/dynasties. Yeah, he probably will put up Cy Young Award numbers this year, but the more he throws as he pushes 40, the more his value will depreciate because he is getting older.

Actually disagree...the easiest way to win dynasty leagues IMO is to target old studs like Verlander, Cruz, Scherzer, etc. in exchange for some teenage hype spec(s)/sexy-with-warts young MLBers that people are splooging their pants over.

But at the end of the day, it's gonna come down to your roster composition. I personally don't play for 2027.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Father time is undefeated, as they say. The fact that he hasn't declined due to age yet doesn't mean it won't happen. I'd be interested to know if aging pitchers statistically pitch worse/wear down more than younger others do as a season progresses. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anybody predicting decline have evidence? All I'm seeing are platitudes and gut feelings. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Right, but there is zero sign of it in his profile. Wouldn't you like to see any tangible evidence of regression before you pass on ELITE production and not just pass on it because you think this year it randomly happens despite zero warning signs? The trend in his profile right now is sustainability.

94.8 velocity on goods fastball last year... Harder than he threw in 2013-2016 and on par with career average of 95.0.

Swinging strikes of 16.1% the best of his career, topping his previous best of 14.5% the year prior. Z-Contact of 77.7%, best of his career.

SIERA of 2.95 the 2nd best of his career.

1.70 BB9 the 2nd best of his career.

12.1 K9 the 2nd best of his career.

0.80 WHIP the best of his career.

 

Show me the decline.. Regression will come, as it always does, but regression typically comes with signs unless there is an injury. There are no signs of regression, only sustained reliability and new peaks of excellence. 

 

Someone mentioned Nolan Ryan earlier... In his 10 seasons from age 37 to 46, Nolan Ryan had a 3.36 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.165 WHIP, 9.8 K9 with 2,037 Ks... Led his league in strikeouts 4 straight years. Led in WHIP twice. Led K9 5 straight years. ERA once... Verlander is 37 this year... 

I'll by regression when I see it present itself. Until then I'll buy his elite production. 

Right now I've gone back to back with him... If he pitches like Ryan did at the end of his career "we're lookin at a minimum 8-peat ere Bahb"

 

Which is exactly why I won't be surprised if/when he puts up Cy Young numbers in 2020. I also won't be surprised if/when father time kicks him in the teeth in 2020. Either way, I'm expecting it. Scary draft pick imo. Well put post btw.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the groin tightness anything to be overly concerned about?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jub Jub said:

Is the groin tightness anything to be overly concerned about?

Not worried.

From ESPN:

Groin tightness isn't new to Verlander, but when it has occurred in the past it has been during the regular season.

"So I kind of know, or have an idea, how to maintain it and try to avoid anything serious," Verlander said.

Baker thinks Verlander will start Tuesday against St. Louis in Jupiter. Verlander won't commit until he sees how he recovers.

Verlander will have time to make at least four starts during the remaining spring games and could potentially make five.

"If there's a lot of stuff I need to work on, I don't have a lot of time to do it," said Verlander, who has four or five turns before the March 26 opener against the Los Angeles Angels. "But if I feel pretty good and my stuff's working, then it's just about building my pitch count."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Third pitcher off the board according to current ADP. I'll take Buehler over him although the better case is for someone doing the opposite. HOF pitcher with long track record of putting up sensational numbers vs a short track record with potential. Injury risk is hard to factor in correctly, both are on very good teams. Buehler might be a tad better price, IDK maybe I'm just hoping it's the right decision.🤐

 

Edited by MrBrett

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/4/2020 at 4:47 PM, StevieStats said:

Right, but there is zero sign of it in his profile. Wouldn't you like to see any tangible evidence of regression before you pass on ELITE production and not just pass on it because you think this year it randomly happens despite zero warning signs? The trend in his profile right now is sustainability.

94.8 velocity on goods fastball last year... Harder than he threw in 2013-2016 and on par with career average of 95.0.

Swinging strikes of 16.1% the best of his career, topping his previous best of 14.5% the year prior. Z-Contact of 77.7%, best of his career.

SIERA of 2.95 the 2nd best of his career.

1.70 BB9 the 2nd best of his career.

12.1 K9 the 2nd best of his career.

0.80 WHIP the best of his career.

 

Show me the decline.. Regression will come, as it always does, but regression typically comes with signs unless there is an injury. There are no signs of regression, only sustained reliability and new peaks of excellence. 

 

Someone mentioned Nolan Ryan earlier... In his 10 seasons from age 37 to 46, Nolan Ryan had a 3.36 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.165 WHIP, 9.8 K9 with 2,037 Ks... Led his league in strikeouts 4 straight years. Led in WHIP twice. Led K9 5 straight years. ERA once... Verlander is 37 this year... 

I'll by regression when I see it present itself. Until then I'll buy his elite production. 

Right now I've gone back to back with him... If he pitches like Ryan did at the end of his career "we're lookin at a minimum 8-peat ere Bahb"

FB velocity 

2017: 95.5

2018: 95.4

2019: 94.8


His ERA, FIP and xFIP all declined from 2018 to 2019. They were still ace numbers, but it was a decline nevertheless.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some of these all timers just go until they want to be done...As long as they can stay healthy.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I had to pick one player to reject age trends, it would be Verlander 

 

I’m all in

Certainly helps that he’s never been injured p much lol

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Fbaseballgod said:

Pulled from his start after 2 innings, expected to go 4. Fastball at 91-93.  


apparently he’s going to get “testing” done 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Probably starting season on the IL at this point.  Wonderful 


I mean... this looks like it could be very very serious.  I suppose it could be a fluke or w/e or his groin thing, but would that drop his FB velocity? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It could be the groin---he's an old-school power pitcher where a lot of the velocity is generated from his leg drive.

Unfortunately, it could be something else too.

"Testing done" is fairly non-specific though I worry it makes a non-groin injury somewhat more likely since they already (I think) had a sense of the groin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:


I mean... this looks like it could be very very serious.  I suppose it could be a fluke or w/e or his groin thing, but would that drop his FB velocity? 

Pretty much any pain I imagine would hinder your ability to do anything at 100%. We’ll just have to wait and see. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Never like to hear triceps soreness. Hope this is nothing but I don’t feel good about it right now. Man pitchers are dropping like flies this spring. 

Edited by BostonCajun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn’t sound too serious, though I think it’s worth mentioning he developed issues in his triceps in spring training of 2015 and three MRIs later didn’t return until June 12th. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.