Ecofolux

Justin Verlander 2020 Outlook

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He looks like what would be produced if Macklemore and Drew Carey had a child together. 

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Late May is prob more likely.  I'm not too beat up over this if this turns out to be true.

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1 hour ago, Big League Choo said:

 

He put out a good video on Judge. Seems legit imo, but who really knows

Yea, legit.

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

He looks like what would be produced if Macklemore and Drew Carey had a child together. 

 

I was thinking the youngest son from Malcolm in the Middle all grown up.

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On 3/8/2020 at 6:36 PM, Cesare13 said:

That's irrelevant.  We draft for the future, not the past.  If anyone thought he was too old 2 years ago, hes now 2 years older with another 500 innings.  Id rather be a year early than a year late.

Sounds like you were 4 or 5 years early

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Justin Verlander injury similar to condition that sidetracked 2015 season with Tigers

Quote

He felt something funny in his triceps area on his second-to-last pitch in the Astros' exhibition game against the Mets on Sunday. Back in 2015 with the Tigers, he felt something in the same area after making a pitch in a spring game in Dunedin.

“A lot of similarities,” said Verlander Monday after it was revealed that he has a mild lat strain on his right side. “It happened in spring training, but I don’t know how to compare it. I know I feel better than I did then.”'

The triceps pain that was ultimately diagnosed as a lat strain in 2015 ended up costing him the first two months of the season. He made his debut on June 13 and didn’t really regain his form until his 10th start. He pitched a career-low 133 innings that year.

So, even though he got relatively good news Monday, there’s still some trepidation.

“Lats can be very difficult,” he said. “Talking with the doctors and looking at the scans, it’s definitely not the worst-case scenario. But the best-case scenario would be nothing. This is somewhere in the middle of that.

“I don’t think any injury can be considered positive. You get a bunch of things running through your head, having dealt with it before and having it be more serious than it was, it was positive to hear that it’s not quite as bad.”

The triceps pain that was ultimately diagnosed as a lat strain in 2015 ended up costing him the first two months of the season. He made his debut on June 13 and didn’t really regain his form until his 10th start. He pitched a career-low 133 innings that year.

So, even though he got relatively good news Monday, there’s still some trepidation.

“Lats can be very difficult,” he said. “Talking with the doctors and looking at the scans, it’s definitely not the worst-case scenario. But the best-case scenario would be nothing. This is somewhere in the middle of that.

“I don’t think any injury can be considered positive. You get a bunch of things running through your head, having dealt with it before and having it be more serious than it was, it was positive to hear that it’s not quite as bad.”

But, almost certainly, Verlander will not be ready to start on Opening Day.

“It would take a miracle to be back by Opening Day,” he said. “But I don’t want to leave miracles off the table.”

You know how painful that was for Verlander to admit.

 

Until we hear something more positive, this is not a bargain I will be chasing in except in shallower leagues.

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Season getting pushed back minimally two weeks moves him back up the board for me... Cole, Degrom, max, Walker, Jack, JV... bring on a discount! 

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On 3/10/2020 at 10:10 PM, tonycpsu said:

Justin Verlander injury similar to condition that sidetracked 2015 season with Tigers

 

But, almost certainly, Verlander will not be ready to start on Opening Day.

“It would take a miracle to be back by Opening Day,” he said. “But I don’t want to leave miracles off the table.”

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Out for 6 weeks after getting surgery on his Groin via Jake Kaplan on Twitter RT by Ken Rosenthal

 

first spring start was pushed back because of groin issue for those who dont recall

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Should still be ready to go by the time the season opens up.

But it's never a great sign when an player is dealing with two different injuries at once. 

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1 hour ago, kmoore1521 said:

Out for 6 weeks after getting surgery on his Groin via Jake Kaplan on Twitter RT by Ken Rosenthal

 

first spring start was pushed back because of groin issue for those who dont recall

 

1 hour ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Should still be ready to go by the time the season opens up.

But it's never a great sign when an player is dealing with two different injuries at once. 

 

if ur drafting in the next week or so, are you still comfortable taking him in the 2nd? i dont think i would be.  but if he falls to the 3rd or 4th i think id take the gamble with the season being pushed back.

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7 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

 

if ur drafting in the next week or so, are you still comfortable taking him in the 2nd? i dont think i would be.  but if he falls to the 3rd or 4th i think id take the gamble with the season being pushed back.

No, 4th round is where I would buy

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On 2/3/2020 at 9:49 PM, Ecofolux said:

Entering his age 37 season is scary but he's showing no signs of slowing down. Velocity is still mid-90s, his ungodly SwStr% is 16.1, and he hasn't missed a start since 2015. Verlander has been absolutely amazing, carrying pitching staffs. Question is, how much longer can he go?

He is showing signs. His fastball velocity has been declining annually since 2017 and his numbers declined across the board from 2018 to 2019. Prior to the Houston trade he was actually pretty bad so it’s kind of odd too. 

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7 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

He is showing signs. His fastball velocity has been declining annually since 2017 and his numbers declined across the board from 2018 to 2019. Prior to the Houston trade he was actually pretty bad so it’s kind of odd too. 

Walker Buehler's xFIP dropped more from 2018 to 2019 then Verlander's did; is he on the decline, too?

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On 3/18/2020 at 2:08 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

He is showing signs. His fastball velocity has been declining annually since 2017 and his numbers declined across the board from 2018 to 2019. Prior to the Houston trade he was actually pretty bad so it’s kind of odd too. 

 

What are people's thoughts on drafting Verlander at his 2nd round ADP?  In theory, the 4 month hiatus should help him and he should be recovered from the injury.  Obviously the age is a huge concern (especially when you're talking about the opportunity cost that comes with a 2nd round ADP), but he can regress quite a bit from last year's numbers and still live up to his ADP,

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In a redraft, I'm not sure why people think age is some over-whelming risk factor. Could he catastrophically decline? Sure. Could any other 2nd round pick catastrophically disappoint? Absolutely. His age risk is baked into his 2nd round price tag, as it is. If he was five years younger, he'd be a 1st round pick. 

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28 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

In a redraft, I'm not sure why people think age is some over-whelming risk factor. Could he catastrophically decline? Sure. Could any other 2nd round pick catastrophically disappoint? Absolutely. His age risk is baked into his 2nd round price tag, as it is. If he was five years younger, he'd be a 1st round pick. 

 

In addition to the age, I think there's also a lot of doubt about Verlander right now because it looked like he was finished with the Tigers in 2014.  In light of Verlander's incredible turnaround with the Astros and the fact that the Astros got caught cheating for stealing signs, I think it's fair to wonder if there were some performance enhancing drugs that led to Verlander's turnaround and whether the Astros will still be cheating this year after getting caught.

Not saying Verlander isn't worth a 2nd round pick, just pointing out the other side of the argument

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Read somewhere that he was working on changing the mechanics on his delivery to help better withstand the wear and tear on his body.

Theres nothing wrong with him as a second rounder but one would wonder about the risk relative to his cost to a comparable younger pitcher like a jack flaherty or walker buehler.

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6 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

In addition to the age, I think there's also a lot of doubt about Verlander right now because it looked like he was finished with the Tigers in 2014.  In light of Verlander's incredible turnaround with the Astros and the fact that the Astros got caught cheating for stealing signs, I think it's fair to wonder if there were some performance enhancing drugs that led to Verlander's turnaround and whether the Astros will still be cheating this year after getting caught.

Not saying Verlander isn't worth a 2nd round pick, just pointing out the other side of the argument

Please stop this garbage.  Stealing signs for hitters some does NOT equal some fantasy made-up-in-you-head magic drug that doesn't exist for pitchers.  Everybody that follows baseball knows why Verlander turned it around.  And slowly too over more than a year and a half.  He transitioned from being a thrower to being a pitcher.  It was something everyone that followed baseball watched.  A path that most pitchers that have long careers have to do to succeed well into their middle and late thirties.

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