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Alex Verdugo 2020 Outlook

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In 2018 when Alex Cora showed up and when Benintendi broke out he somehow was elite at home k wise and much much worse on the road, that is a red flag for me ūüóĎ. I'm in on Verdugo at his current ADP and out on Benintendi at his.¬†

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On 2/10/2020 at 9:12 AM, dfstout said:

Verdugo unleashed!!! Can't wait...draft draft draft...

I agree. 

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Everything I have read puts Verdugo in the 6 spot in the BOS lineup. If he can keep his job (not sure what kind of defensive OF'er he is) then I see him as a solid OF4 with OF3 upside, which puts him smack in the middle of a 12 team draft.

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and the Red Sox are on the verge of signing Kevin Pillar.  hummmmmmmmmmm

 

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30 minutes ago, sasnumberonefan said:

Kevin Pillar muddies the water big time here.. How is that OF gonna shake? 

I find that rumor a bit strange too.  I would think Pillar would be more insurance in case they do move Jackie Bradley Jr this year.  With Betts gone everyone thought JBJ would just finish out his one remaining year here but maybe not.  They have been trying to trade him for two years though and have only gotten nibbles and no bites though.  Last year he sat on the bench more than ever to get more bats into the offense with JD playing in the field instead of DH'ing at times.  But JD is a terrible fielder.  So maybe getting Pillar (if they do) is more about JBJ than anything else.

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JBJ vs LHP last year -- .640

Pillar vs. LHP last year -- .823

The biggest argument for keeping JBJ in the lineup against lefties was his defense. With Pillar, even though he isn't what he used to be in CF, the dropoff is not that steep. Throw in Bloom bringing the Rays platoom tendencies to Boston, this has to be about JBJ.

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37 minutes ago, JameisofThrones said:

JBJ vs LHP last year -- .640

Pillar vs. LHP last year -- .823

The biggest argument for keeping JBJ in the lineup against lefties was his defense. With Pillar, even though he isn't what he used to be in CF, the dropoff is not that steep. Throw in Bloom bringing the Rays platoom tendencies to Boston, this has to be about JBJ.

Thanks for the research.  Yeah not only about sitting JBJ some but also keeping JD out of the outfield as well when Jackie sits.  JD is one of the worse outfielders I've ever seen.

This also means Verdugo will stay in RF and Benny in LF instead of one or the other shifting over to center when Jackie sits.

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15 hours ago, Redphan said:

Everything I have read puts Verdugo in the 6 spot in the BOS lineup. If he can keep his job (not sure what kind of defensive OF'er he is) then I see him as a solid OF4 with OF3 upside, which puts him smack in the middle of a 12 team draft.

Just wondering where/what you read and if you can post it?

Also worth noting -- opening day lineups mean little as the season moves forward. So opening lower before being moved up relatively early in the season is pretty common for young hitters.

Edited by StevieStats

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On 2/11/2020 at 10:22 PM, Redphan said:

Everything I have read puts Verdugo in the 6 spot in the BOS lineup. If he can keep his job (not sure what kind of defensive OF'er he is) then I see him as a solid OF4 with OF3 upside, which puts him smack in the middle of a 12 team draft.

I would be shocked if Verdugo isn't the everyday RF when healthy. He's a great defensive OF with a cannon arm, perfect fit especially at fenway. I expect Pillar to split with JBJ. 

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There's no reason to think the Sox ever planned on Verdugo only playing part time. Sadly he'll be playing no-time as he's out with a stress fracture in his back, and has been since August. Until the Sox release a prognosis and anticipated return date I wouldn't draft this guy at all.

 

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5 hours ago, Theschill38 said:

I would be shocked if Verdugo isn't the everyday RF when healthy. He's a great defensive OF with a cannon arm, perfect fit especially at fenway. I expect Pillar to split with JBJ. 

Yep that is definitely the Sox plan.  And your description of his defensive abilities is why I have been comparing him to Dwight Evans since the trade.  His hitting profile is somewhat similar too.  Pillar is only a fill-in full time until Verdugo is ready to go which if not Opening Day would only be a few weeks later at most.

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23 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yep that is definitely the Sox plan.  And your description of his defensive abilities is why I have been comparing him to Dwight Evans since the trade.  His hitting profile is somewhat similar too.  Pillar is only a fill-in full time until Verdugo is ready to go which if not Opening Day would only be a few weeks later at most.

 

I think that's an excellent comparison. Nick Markakis would be a more modern day comparison.

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17 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

until Verdugo is ready to go which if not Opening Day would only be a few weeks later at most.


Did the Red Sox put out that time frame?  All I've seen is the quote from Roenicke that there's a chance Verdugo won't be ready by opening day.  His draft value would swing pretty widely on having an approximate return date vs "out indefinitely and has been tfor the last 7 months."

I also think it's curious that he injured the back in August, and in November was supposedly back at "full health" according to his brother, but now is going to miss opening day presumably.  So, was there a setback at some point?  

Dodgers Nation Report in November:  Alex Verdugo Back at Full Health

The most recent MLB article to show in Google results on Verdugo's injury, from January:  "Club officials say there is no concern with the 23-year-old’s health long term, but initially nobody thought his injury was this serious."  Verdugo working through back issues

Doesn't sound like a minor issue whatsoever.  If they haven't released an estimated return date yet that doesn't bode well in my opinion.  

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The Red Sox knew about his condition before the trade.  They went over his meds with a fine tooth comb before the trade.  Since they rejected Brusdar because of that same meds vetting and not Verdugo I'm not worried.

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9 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The Red Sox knew about his condition before the trade.  They went over his meds with a fine tooth comb before the trade.  Since they rejected Brusdar because of that same meds vetting and not Verdugo I'm not worried.

 

I mean, obviously they knew about his back, all this info was available online well in advance of the trade (just like the info about Graterol being a reliever¬†lol).¬† I'm more wondering if this isn't going to be a recurring issue since he already has repeated back problems at age 23.¬† Doesn't really matter to the Sox since it was a salary dump trade, they're not trying to win this year and they just needed a good enough name to justify getting under the tax line¬†ūüôā¬†But since this forum is about fantasy baseball, it definitely matters in terms of his draft value.¬† Until we have a definitive return date he's way more of a gamble and I'd personally want to take that into account when determining when to draft him.¬†¬†

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I'd certainly not be bullish in redraft. I never target injured players. I know I got a few laughs but I genuinely meant it when I said the red sox shouldn't care about a back injury (assuming it will be fully recovered at some point). The Red Sox have gone out of their way to tank 2020, I don't think they should rush him back. He will hopefully be the Red Sox's Nick Markakis for the four years following. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Quote

Alex Verdugo

 (back) could begin taking swings sometime this week, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports. (Alex Speier on Twitter)

 

This could be some good news if he does indeed start swinging this week.  

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I know position players don't need as much time to get ready for the regular season.  Could he avoid the IL?

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22 hours ago, MJDrocks said:

I know position players don't need as much time to get ready for the regular season.  Could he avoid the IL?

 

I think he definitely has a chance to now.  

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On 2/18/2020 at 3:57 PM, brockpapersizer said:

I'd certainly not be bullish in redraft. I never target injured players. I know I got a few laughs but I genuinely meant it when I said the red sox shouldn't care about a back injury (assuming it will be fully recovered at some point). The Red Sox have gone out of their way to tank 2020, I don't think they should rush him back. He will hopefully be the Red Sox's Nick Markakis for the four years following. 

FYI in his rookie season with 377 PA "Boston Markakis" had a max exit velocity of 111.3 MPH, better than any ball Mookie hit in the last 2 years and also had a 459 ft HR, longer than any HR Mookie has hit in his career... "Boston Markakis" has had a .181 ISO and Nick Markakis hasn't been above .160 since 2008 when he was really good.

Not too shabby.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

FYI in his rookie season with 377 PA "Boston Markakis" had a max exit velocity of 111.3 MPH, better than any ball Mookie hit in the last 2 years and also had a 459 ft HR, longer than any HR Mookie has hit in his career... "Boston Markakis" has had a .181 ISO and Nick Markakis hasn't been above .160 since 2008 when he was really good.

Not too shabby.

 

Well Markakis with a juiced ball in 2019. I agree, it's not too shabby.  If Verdugo ends up with Markakis career, that would be really good. Markakis will be on the hall of fame ballot one day, even though he won't make it in. That's a pretty great outcome for any hitter. Gun to my head, Verdugo probably doesn't make it on a hall of fame ballot. Could certainly happen, but I think that's a bottom 50% outcome. Wasn't making the comp as a slight, and other notable baseball people have made that exact comp. Maybe he's better, maybe he's worse.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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