UberRebel

Lucas Giolito 2020 Outlook

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Oh yea here we go. As others have mentioned on this board, Lucas Gi-Elite-O went from top prospect to one of the worst SPs in the majors in 2018, and then after an overhaul of his mechanics, he rediscovered the fastball that made him a top draft pick and put up a fantastic turnaround season.

 

Let’s start with that fastball. It went from 92mph in 2018 to almost 95 mph in 2019. That played up his split finger change, which was one of the best in the game. 
 

He also cut down on his walks (4.67 to 2.90).

 

So in the vein of Curt Schilling, Lucas became a stud agains using a high fastball, low splitter approach.

 

What’s needed for him to take the next step? If he can use that slider (14% usage) more and generate more whiffs, he’ll become a bonafide elite ace instead of just an All Star. That third pitch has potential - if you look at his highlight videos it has good stuff and movement. He also has a curveball but that is the pitch he had to scrap in order to stop getting destroyed


Bottom line is Lucas is legit (duh) and reason why you don’t give up on post hype guys. He can still get better given his past pitch mix and his age. He’ll be a top 10 SP by the end of 2020 in my opinion 

 

Edited by UberRebel
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According to PL, Giolito had the 5th best fastball last season. Definitely a top 20 SP with the potential to become top 10. 

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2 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

According to PL, Giolito had the 5th best fastball last season. Definitely a top 20 SP with the potential to become top 10. 

Changup was 5th as well, and the 23rd best slider as a cherry on top. He had an Alex Wood type windup in '18, and in '19 he kept his pitching hand tucked close to his body. Seems much easier to repeat rather than flailing around before throwing it, and the extra 2mph doesn't hurt either. He's definitely for real. 

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With the sale/Snell news where are you guys drafting Lucas?  I think hes a surefire top 10

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53 minutes ago, svtballa said:

With the sale/Snell news where are you guys drafting Lucas?  I think hes a surefire top 10

I have him 13th just ahead of Paddack, Nola, and Greinke and behind Corbin, Castillo, and Morton. However, I can see why some people would put him ahead of those three. I’d definitely have him below Kershaw though, somewhere in the 10-15 range. 

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10 minutes ago, 6Kill said:

I have him 13th just ahead of Paddack, Nola, and Greinke and behind Corbin, Castillo, and Morton. However, I can see why some people would put him ahead of those three. I’d definitely have him below Kershaw though, somewhere in the 10-15 range. 

 

Give me your top 10

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3 minutes ago, svtballa said:

 

Give me your top 10

DeGrom Cole

JV Scherzer Buehler
Bieber Strasburg Flaherty Kershaw 
Corbin

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, 6Kill said:

I have him 13th just ahead of Paddack, Nola, and Greinke and behind Corbin, Castillo, and Morton. However, I can see why some people would put him ahead of those three. I’d definitely have him below Kershaw though, somewhere in the 10-15 range. 

Kershaw has a 90 MPH FB, had a 3.86 FIP in 2019 and can’t stay healthy. I’d say all the starters named in this thread are better than him. I think people are focusing too much on his name.

Edited by Thenewwildone8
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Figuring solid low end SP2 to high end SP3. Meaning if that’s what he is to your staff you’re doing well. 

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Posted (edited)

Really looking forward to seeing if he can repeat last year.  Hopefully he doesn't lose the velocity that was so important for to his turnaround.

Edited by B&F

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12 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Figuring solid low end SP2 to high end SP3. Meaning if that’s what he is to your staff you’re doing well. 

Your pitching staff is doing well and your offense stinks because you took 3 pitchers in the first 5 rounds 

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30 minutes ago, umphrey said:

Your pitching staff is doing well and your offense stinks because you took 3 pitchers in the first 5 rounds 


Not everyone does snake drafts. 

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Welp...
I hope I don't regret my redraft investment this year on him. First outing - awful....

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45 minutes ago, k.k. said:

Welp...
I hope I don't regret my redraft investment this year on him. First outing - awful....

Leury Garcia shouldn’t be at 2B for long, thank god, but yeah he didn’t look very sharp. The line was worse than he threw though.

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He had real trouble with his location out of the stretch. When he kept runners off base and using his full windup, he was pretty good (except for throwing fastballs to Kepler).

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12 hours ago, tywalson said:

Leury Garcia shouldn’t be at 2B for long, thank god, but yeah he didn’t look very sharp. The line was worse than he threw though.


This can not be understated.  Leury Garcia was absolutely dreadful in the field last night.  My eyes were bleeding.

But yeah, Kepler has Lukasz’s number.  

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Fantastic start tonight. When he finished the 6th at like 90ish pitches and 10ks I figured that was it. Then he came back for the 7th and struck out the side in about 15 pitches, finishing off with 97 mph.

 

After his last start I was thinking he’d have a letdown year and being a two-pitch SP would catch up to him. His velo was also slightly down. But the announcers said today that his 2020 avg fastball velo rose from ~93 to 94.5 just from this start alone. He was touching 97 early and all the way to pitch 110.

 

So Giolito is trending up. I was hoping he would throw his slider more this year as an extra dimension but he’s not deviating from last year’s strategy so far. It still might be hard for him to maintain his 2019 level but the Ks will most likely still be there. Plus the White Sox offense is looking real good this year with Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Tim Anderson

 

One thing I will comment on that I’ve seen from him is intangibles. Last year seemed to really boost his confidence and now he takes the mound with an ace mindset expecting to do well. Even when he in trouble you can tell he turns up the intensity and bears down. Maybe it’s also easy to be confident when your 6’6”, good looking, with a 97mph fastball and top prospect pedigree.

 

He’s still firmly no worse than a top 25 SP for me and he’s young enough with untapped talent to be even better moving forward. Top 10 dynasty arm.


 

 

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Didn't catch any of the game and am elated to hear about the velo ticking up. He would touch 96-97 in some starts last year and I really hoped that was going to carry over more regularly to this season.

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10 hours ago, UberRebel said:

Fantastic start tonight. When he finished the 6th at like 90ish pitches and 10ks I figured that was it. Then he came back for the 7th and struck out the side in about 15 pitches, finishing off with 97 mph.

 

After his last start I was thinking he’d have a letdown year and being a two-pitch SP would catch up to him. His velo was also slightly down. But the announcers said today that his 2020 avg fastball velo rose from ~93 to 94.5 just from this start alone. He was touching 97 early and all the way to pitch 110.

 

So Giolito is trending up. I was hoping he would throw his slider more this year as an extra dimension but he’s not deviating from last year’s strategy so far. It still might be hard for him to maintain his 2019 level but the Ks will most likely still be there. Plus the White Sox offense is looking real good this year with Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Tim Anderson

 

One thing I will comment on that I’ve seen from him is intangibles. Last year seemed to really boost his confidence and now he takes the mound with an ace mindset expecting to do well. Even when he in trouble you can tell he turns up the intensity and bears down. Maybe it’s also easy to be confident when your 6’6”, good looking, with a 97mph fastball and top prospect pedigree.

 

He’s still firmly no worse than a top 25 SP for me and he’s young enough with untapped talent to be even better moving forward. Top 10 dynasty arm.


 

 

Good analysis. Easily in the top 20 for me.

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On 8/21/2020 at 8:28 AM, Jyeatbvg said:

Good analysis. Easily in the top 20 for me.

I mean top 10.

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