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David Johnson 2020 Outlook

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Think others have said this but Hyde was pretty good last year.  Only thing holding him back from being a top 10 RB was usage in the passing game.  I would assume they will use DJ as a 3 down back(I mean they traded the second best WR in football for him).  At a 4th or 5th round price that would make DJ a bargain.

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29 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

He was inefficient and propped up by goal line work--"good" player he was not, let alone "really, really good"

I thought it was clear that I was referring to fantasy production.  Are you afraid he won’t get GL work or something?

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32 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

He was inefficient and propped up by goal line work--"good" player he was not, let alone "really, really good"

hes really never been a good runner/y/a guy. 4.2 in 2016. then trash under 4

week 1-6

49 rush yds per game 3.9 avg 2 tds

30 rec 315 yds 4tds

thats more than fine fantasy wise especially in ppr

 

i dont like him in snake. more of an auction target. gurley and dj/bell for $50 total holds huge upside followed up with 2 more decent backs for 15-20 each. gives you alot of money to spend on high end wr/te for that floor.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I thought it was clear that I was referring to fantasy production.  Are you afraid he won’t get GL work or something?

No it's more that I prefer to have good players than bad players with an appealing situation.

They are less volatile and there is less risk. TDs are always a bit fluky

4 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

hes really never been a good runner/y/a guy. 4.2 in 2016. then trash under 4

week 1-6

49 rush yds per game 3.9 avg 2 tds

30 rec 315 yds 4tds

thats more than fine fantasy wise especially in ppr

 

i dont like him in snake. more of an auction target. gurley and dj/bell for $50 total holds huge upside followed up with 2 more decent backs for 15-20 each. gives you alot of money to spend on high end wr/te for that floor.

 

 

4.2 is fine especially with the lines the Cardinals have had and how much of his fantasy superstardom came from recieving. Under 4 is not

And what happened with those stats? The Cardinals saw he wasn't good and saw Edmonds outperform him before he got hurt and then decided on Drake--who also outperformed him

Hence preferring to have good players on my team than bad players theoretically in a good situation

Now if you want to use situation to bump one good player above one slightly better player stuck on the Jets/Chargers then sure I am open to that

But otherwise...

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Just now, mocha4313 said:

No it's more that I prefer to have good players than bad players with an appealing situation.

They are less volatile and there is less risk. TDs are always a bit fluky

4.2 is fine especially with the lines the Cardinals have had and how much of his fantasy superstardom came from recieving. Under 4 is not

And what happened with those stats? The Cardinals saw he wasn't good and saw Edmonds outperform him before he got hurt and then decided on Drake--who also outperformed him

Hence preferring to have good players on my team than bad players theoretically in a good situation

Now if you want to use situation to bump one good player above one slightly better player stuck on the Jets/Chargers then sure 

I mean...sure.  Who doesn’t?  You can draft him as an RB2 in the 4th-5th - what’s the harm?

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I mean...sure.  Who doesn’t?  You can draft him as an RB2 in the 4th-5th - what’s the harm?

As a FLEX I'd be open to it if I went RB heavy early or grabbed an elite TE instead of a WR; but really, give me Jordan Howard 2-3 rounds later--who I think at this point is a better player despite a worse situation--and a WR with WR1 upside like AJB/McLaurin/Chark/DK at round 4-5

If going WR heavy with a top TE early (Zero RB) I suppose he is more appealing but I don't usually do that

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21 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

As a FLEX I'd be open to it if I went RB heavy early or grabbed an elite TE instead of a WR; but really, give me Jordan Howard 2-3 rounds later--who I think at this point is a better player despite a worse situation--and a WR with WR1 upside like AJB/McLaurin/Chark/DK at round 4-5

If going WR heavy with a top TE early (Zero RB) I suppose he is more appealing but I don't usually do that

Yes, a two-down back on Miami certainly qualifies as a worse situation.  To each his own, I suppose.

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37 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

As a FLEX I'd be open to it if I went RB heavy early or grabbed an elite TE instead of a WR; but really, give me Jordan Howard 2-3 rounds later--who I think at this point is a better player despite a worse situation--and a WR with WR1 upside like AJB/McLaurin/Chark/DK at round 4-5

If going WR heavy with a top TE early (Zero RB) I suppose he is more appealing but I don't usually do that

howard has nowhere near the upside. you looking celing of 1100 total yds and 8+tds 20 rec. put him at 178 thats low rb2 ppr last year.  11ppr pts per game

vs dj who avg 20+ pts weeks 1-6 last year. so his ceiling is much higher. depends what you want and half or full ppr. but 2 rd discount doesnt sound that appealing

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Well put - in my opinion, if you’re rolling Jordan Howard out on a weekly basis, something has gone horribly wrong with your draft.

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58 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Yes, a two-down back on Miami certainly qualifies as a worse situation.  To each his own, I suppose.

Not to mention Brieda is on the dolphins too.

Id rather have a bellcow on a good team than a RB in a timeshare on a s---y team.

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DJ is also on the same team now as Fuller(has missed at least 5  games every season since 2016), Cooks (multiple concussion history), and Cobb (injury-prone). He's gonna be a 3-down back quoting Bill O'Brien.

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Not to mention Brieda is on the dolphins too.

Id rather have a bellcow on a good team than a RB in a timeshare on a s---y team.

 

Are we sure the Texans are a good team? Or even a good offense? Given how the Dolphins offense played down the stretch and with additions they made, It wouldnt be a complete shock if they were a better offense this season.

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4 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Are we sure the Texans are a good team? Or even a good offense? Given how the Dolphins offense played down the stretch and with additions they made, It wouldnt be a complete shock if they were a better offense this season.

That would strike me as pretty shocking - the Texans ranked ninth in just rushing yards last year - versus Miami’s ranking of...well, last.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

That would strike me as pretty shocking - the Texans ranked ninth in just rushing yards last year - versus Miami’s ranking of...well, last.

 

Im talking overall. Texans were only 13th in total yards and 14th in points for, and that was with Hopkins. Not exactly a high bar to clear.

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Just now, Evincar said:

 

Im talking overall. Texans were only 13th in total yards and 14th in points for, and that was with Hopkins. Not exactly a high bar to clear.

For a team that was 27th overall in total yards and 25th in points a year ago?  I’d say that’s a pretty high bar.

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

For a team that was 27th overall in total yards and 25th in points a year ago?  I’d say that’s a pretty high bar.

 

Yeah they were pretty dreadful for 1st half of the season but they turned it around.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Not to mention Brieda is on the dolphins too.

Id rather have a bellcow on a good team than a RB in a timeshare on a s---y team.

I know some don’t like predicting injury. But if there is anyone guaranteed to get hurt it’s Matt Breida

And I guess we have to disagree on the Texans as a “good” team. In fact I expect their record against a 1st place schedule to be only slightly better or even fairly similar to the Dolphins on a 4th place schedule

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1 minute ago, Evincar said:

 

Yeah they were pretty dreadful for 1st half of the season but they turned it around.

I thought you were talking “overall”? Now they have to ease in a rookie at QB?!

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4 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

I know some don’t like predicting injury. But if there is anyone guaranteed to get hurt it’s Matt Breida

And I guess we have to disagree on the Texans as a “good” team. In fact I expect their record against a 1st place schedule to be only slightly better or even fairly similar to the Dolphins on a 4th place schedule

The Dolphins have one of the toughest SOS out there - the Ravens have unquestionably the easiest.

Maybe I don’t understand what you mean by “x-place” schedules.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The Dolphins have one of the toughest SOS out there - the Ravens have unquestionably the easiest.

Maybe I don’t understand what you mean by “x-place” schedules.

Actually I did not know that. But by place schedule:

The way NFL scheduling works is a division plays another division in its conference along with an NFC division as well as other teams in the other two divisions of their own conference that finished in the same place as they did

So the Chiefs for example play all divisional teams twice (6 games), all NFC South teams this year (4 games), all AFC East Teams (4 games), and the teams in the other two AFC divisions that finished in 1st like the Chiefs did.

Obviously some years it turns out you'd rather face the 1st place team (Texans) than the 2nd or 3rd ones (Titans, Colts), and those are really only 2 games dependent on where you finished the previous season--but it still makes a difference. For the Dolphins they get the Jags and Chargers. The Texans get the Chiefs and Patriots

Just eyeballing the Dolphins and Texans schedules I see them being one to two games of each other in the 6-10 to 8-8 range

 

And really Howard just produces everywhere he goes. I get he doesn't have the same ceiling as DJ for receiving but I would be shocked if we ever see DJ's "ceiling" again

Edited by mocha4313

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6 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Actually I did not know that. But by place schedule:

The way NFL scheduling works is a division plays another division in its conference along with an NFC division as well as other teams in the other two divisions of their own conference that finished in the same place as they did

So the Chiefs for example play all divisional teams twice (6 games), all NFC South teams this year (4 games), all AFC East Teams (4 games), and the teams in the other two AFC divisions that finished in 1st like the Chiefs did.

Obviously some years it turns out you'd rather face the 1st place team (Texans) than the 2nd or 3rd ones (Titans, Colts), and those are really only 2 games dependent on where you finished the previous season--but it still makes a difference. For the Dolphins they get the Jags and Chargers. The Texans get the Chiefs and Patriots

Just eyeballing the Dolphins and Texans schedules I see them being one to two games of each other in the 6-10 to 8-8 range

 

And really Howard just produces everywhere he goes. I get he doesn't have the same ceiling as DJ for receiving but I would be shocked if we ever see DJ's "ceiling" again

Interesting - did not remember that, thanks.

It’s not just that Howard can’t match DJ’s receiving ceiling - it’s the expectation that Howard will hardly ever be utilized as a pass-catcher with Breida on board.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

It’s not just that Howard can’t match DJ’s receiving ceiling - it’s the expectation that Howard will hardly ever be utilized as a pass-catcher with Breida on board.

Yeah Miami is gonna run both Howard/Breida (Thunder/Lightning combo) while Houston sees DJ as 3-down back and we can pencil in 250+ touches for DJ. But I guess it depends what the league settings are, I don't think it's really that close in ppr leagues.

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Idk, he just looked so bad last year..even with running lanes he looked slow. I think I'm gonna let someone else have him this year

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18 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

I cannot possibly understand the type of person that looks at 2019 David Johnson and thinks,”You know what? That is the guy I want on my fantasy team next year.” May God have mercy on your poor, poor souls.

 

I'll own him at current ADP 100%

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8 hours ago, JAG said:

I wish I knew more about his back injury last year.  It seemed to me that when he hit the wall, ARZ turned to the backup, then traded for a healthy RB who was on the block in Drake.  DJ tried to come back, but did not appear to be himself.  I want to believe in the guy, but back injuries never seem to go away.

I'm going to play keep away unless I either find out more about his back or I can get him dirt cheap.

 

Was it his back or ankle? 

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