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David Johnson 2020 Outlook

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19 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Duke still isn't going higher likely because David Johnson is also a pass-catching back and that is Duke's specialty.  I read that the coaches want to have both Duke and David on the field for certain packages but overall, I think he'll need a David Johnson injury to be relevant.

Sure, but the outcomes for DJ are basically either: 1) he’s lost it, is no longer good, and probably loses the 1A job to duke or 2) injuries etc caused him to look like **** last year and he’s still elite, will smash his current adp. Most people seem pretty concerned with DJ so I would think that would lead to a higher adp for Duke 

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9 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Sure, but the outcomes for DJ are basically either: 1) he’s lost it, is no longer good, and probably loses the 1A job to duke or 2) injuries etc caused him to look like **** last year and he’s still elite, will smash his current adp. Most people seem pretty concerned with DJ so I would think that would lead to a higher adp for Duke 

There’s been countless opportunities for Duke to take on a lead back role over the years but for whatever reason, the coaches in Cleveland and Houston won’t use him as such. Fantasy owners probably can’t see him as a 3-down back in the event of a DJ injury because he’s never been used as one.

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Opinions are pretty polarized on him I think. I've seen him fall in some mocks. However in my first draft (slow draft 4 hours per pick, $250 fee, so you'd presume people care), the first overall pick took him at the 2/3 turn 25th overall after he took CM and Gurley, ppr league.

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7 minutes ago, young dude said:

Opinions are pretty polarized on him I think. I've seen him fall in some mocks. However in my first draft (slow draft 4 hours per pick, $250 fee, so you'd presume people care), the first overall pick took him at the 2/3 turn 25th overall after he took CM and Gurley, ppr league.

That’s where I’m targeting him. Same boat for me, Barkley/DJ/Carson or Gordon is what I’m targeting. 

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Easy pass at current ADP.

Can't pay up for a 4th round pick when there could be a flip of the coin chance the guy is done. Lot of other more bankable talent with far less risk at this spot in the draft.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Easy pass at current ADP.

Can't pay up for a 4th round pick when there could be a flip of the coin chance the guy is done. Lot of other more bankable talent with far less risk at this spot in the draft.

DJ lasted until the 6th round in a recent draft I did and I took him for bench depth.  I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on him as one of your starters but I think he's a sleeper as depth playing in the Houston offense.

Edited by sjm76

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4 hours ago, young dude said:

Opinions are pretty polarized on him I think. I've seen him fall in some mocks. However in my first draft (slow draft 4 hours per pick, $250 fee, so you'd presume people care), the first overall pick took him at the 2/3 turn 25th overall after he took CM and Gurley, ppr league.

 

I mean that's just deadly , imagine CMC/Gurley/DJ . My plan to attack the draft is very similar, but you need a top4 pick to get it done. We don't even need DJ to be efficient, just stay healthy for all of 2020, garner a boatload of touches & GL work. That's all you really need for him to hit his ADP. I mean the ghost of Carlos Hyde hit 1000 rushing / 6 TDs last year 

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10 hours ago, smeeze said:

There’s been countless opportunities for Duke to take on a lead back role over the years but for whatever reason, the coaches in Cleveland and Houston won’t use him as such. Fantasy owners probably can’t see him as a 3-down back in the event of a DJ injury because he’s never been used as one.

That’s a good point. He likely wouldn’t see 3 down work if the DJ excitement fails 

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15 hours ago, sjm76 said:

DJ lasted until the 6th round in a recent draft I did and I took him for bench depth.  I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on him as one of your starters but I think he's a sleeper as depth playing in the Houston offense.

 

I also got DJ in the early 6th as my RB3. I think the reward is plenty worth the risk at that point. I'd also be okay with him in the 5th, though I think too reliable and quality WRs are there in the 5th (I took Woods at 5.9 before DJ). 12 team standard league for reference.

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After last season diaster where I would tell myself not to come near DJ with a 10 feet pole...I just walked away from all my drafts being a 100% stock holder...again. 
 

Never learned I guess...sigh. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ginocan said:

After last season diaster where I would tell myself not to come near DJ with a 10 feet pole...I just walked away from all my drafts being a 100% stock holder...again. 
 

Never learned I guess...sigh. 

 

Just When I Thought I Was Out, They Pull Me Back In! - Godfather Part 3 GIF  by D... | Gfycat

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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David Johnson continues to impress: 

David Johnson recently told Tyler Dunne of Bleacher Report that his personal goal in 2020 is to recapture his potential as a running back who is capable of recording 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiver yards on the season. Albeit Johnson has yet to live up to his 2016 All-Pro status, the Texans appear to have put the 28-year-old running back in a position to succeed. 

Stepping in as the primary back, Johnson took part in several reps showcasing his productivity as a dual-threat option coming out of the backfield. Johnson had some quality plays rushing the ball for a few yards, but what stood out the most was his proficient hands as a receiver. He capitalized on four out of his five pass-catching plays coming out of the backfield — demonstrating the harmony of the Watson-to-Johnson collaboration.

Since the beginning of training camp on July 25, Johnson's new coaches and teammates have gushed at his expertise, and the Texans' endless offensive possibilities to attack with him on the field. Johnson has impressed nearly everyone through his first few weeks of training camp. Everyone, except for his new backfield-mate, Duke Johnson. 

"Absolutely nothing," Duke said. "Everything I see from David, I kind of expect. We came out the same year, so I kind of knew what he was capable of. I watched him when he was in Arizona. I think what has surprised a lot of people is the way that he's able to move at the size he is and what a great receiver he is out of the backfield."

https://houston.sportsmap.com/texans-training-camp-report-david-johnson-continues-to-impress

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On 8/29/2020 at 2:31 PM, SenatorSpaceman said:

I wouldn't be able to rationalize having him on my radar there. I have pick #2 in a 12 team league and I am however considering reaching for Fournette or Gordon after the turn in round 3, both of whom are comparably polarizing to Johnson. So what do I know? 


Yeah, I’d take DJ before Gordon each and every time. 

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for me comes down to DJ vs taylor.  rook behind stacked o line in a bit more of a timeshare or DJ with more defined role, but question about declining skill set and what he left in the tank....

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11 hours ago, smeeze said:

David Johnson continues to impress: 

David Johnson recently told Tyler Dunne of Bleacher Report that his personal goal in 2020 is to recapture his potential as a running back who is capable of recording 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiver yards on the season. Albeit Johnson has yet to live up to his 2016 All-Pro status, the Texans appear to have put the 28-year-old running back in a position to succeed. 

Stepping in as the primary back, Johnson took part in several reps showcasing his productivity as a dual-threat option coming out of the backfield. Johnson had some quality plays rushing the ball for a few yards, but what stood out the most was his proficient hands as a receiver. He capitalized on four out of his five pass-catching plays coming out of the backfield — demonstrating the harmony of the Watson-to-Johnson collaboration.

Since the beginning of training camp on July 25, Johnson's new coaches and teammates have gushed at his expertise, and the Texans' endless offensive possibilities to attack with him on the field. Johnson has impressed nearly everyone through his first few weeks of training camp. Everyone, except for his new backfield-mate, Duke Johnson. 

"Absolutely nothing," Duke said. "Everything I see from David, I kind of expect. We came out the same year, so I kind of knew what he was capable of. I watched him when he was in Arizona. I think what has surprised a lot of people is the way that he's able to move at the size he is and what a great receiver he is out of the backfield."

https://houston.sportsmap.com/texans-training-camp-report-david-johnson-continues-to-impress

 

As a DJ owner the last few years, I told myself I would NEVER draft him again. Last year in and of itself was just brutal. And, do we want to talk about the year he went out in the first game? Ugh! BUT, as we approach the beginning of the season, and after reading some of these reports, I dunno man...I'm starting to drink the Kool-Aid, I think.

OK, so I accept that I'm not getting 2016 DJ,. And, in fact would be drafting him as a RB2. But, on sheer volume alone (which assumes he stays healthy and plays all 16 games) he's gotta get at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 8-10 TD's. He'll flirt with back-end RB1 numbers if everything goes right. 

Question is, what'd that gonna cost me? A 4th round pick? A 3rd? 2/3 turn, is that where we're at?

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21 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Question is, what'd that gonna cost me? A 4th round pick? A 3rd? 2/3 turn, is that where we're at?

I'd guess you can wait until the 4th round, but not longer.

I got him for $25 to be my rb2 (in a half ppr with no flex, 2 rb 3 wr).  I don't feel great about it, but added Dobbins and Swift to hopefully replace him if needed.  The range of outcomes on him is vast.  I worry about his health, and could see him struggling with injuries all year.  But if everything goes well, I could also see him getting to 1400+ total yards and 10+ TDs.

But that range isn't really different than the guys going around him.  Other than Mostert (and Conner depending on site) I don't see anyone as more dependable. Bell and Ingram should provide a higher floor but lower ceiling.  Gurley might have a higher ceiling, but just as unreliable.  Gordon i have little to no confidence in.  Fournette's situation is unknown, and he also comes with durability concerns.  Taylor's getting a lot of hype, but i don't see Mack just going away.

I don't love DJ this year but he's intriguing.  If you take him, I'd make sure to get someone you're confident can give you rb2ish production if he busts

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I think the key is to draft another running back either before or after David Johnson for your RB2 and flex spots so that you have another viable RB for that RB2 spot. And then grab Duke Johnson in the last round just in case too. For what it’s worth I went DJ and then Mostert for the 4th and 5th rounds. Mostert slides nicely to my flex but I can easily bump him to my RB2 and use a WR for my flex.

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I am not clear why anyone is assuming he'd be done.

He was solid the first 6 games before his back injury.  Edmonds, and then Drake took over and stylistically and youth wise they were what Kingsbury was looking for.  This does not mean that he's washed.

Everyone says he looks healthy and motivated this year.  I'm very confused why anyone is taking someone like Gurley, who has a degenerative knee condition, or Taylor, who while supremely talented is a rookie and has Mack to contend with, over this dude.

I mean, I'll take it.  But I'm confused.

Also, I don't really see the benefit of cuffing him with Duke.  Duke will never be a feature back, it's been proven.  If you like what Duke brings to your team in standalone value, sure, go for it.  But that is all he will be.  If David gets hurt someone else is getting the carries, maybe someone who isn't on the roster.  But it won't be Duke.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I am not clear why anyone is assuming he'd be done.

He was solid the first 6 games before his back injury.  Edmonds, and then Drake took over and stylistically and youth wise they were what Kingsbury was looking for.  This does not mean that he's washed.

Everyone says he looks healthy and motivated this year.  I'm very confused why anyone is taking someone like Gurley, who has a degenerative knee condition, or Taylor, who while supremely talented is a rookie and has Mack to contend with, over this dude.

I mean, I'll take it.  But I'm confused.


I think the injury concerns are well founded and with the fact that he has not looked explosive on the field since 2016. His last year’s highlights has him going down mostly on first contact and looking much slower than other elite backs. But he has a pretty good situation in the Texans. I like DJ more than the other 2 backs you mentioned as well.

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28 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:


I think the injury concerns are well founded and with the fact that he has not looked explosive on the field since 2016. His last year’s highlights has him going down mostly on first contact and looking much slower than other elite backs. But he has a pretty good situation in the Texans. I like DJ more than the other 2 backs you mentioned as well.

"Looked explosive" is pretty subjective.  All I knows is last year he was averaging 102 yards from scrimmage and a TD per game before he got hurt.  And he went to a situation where he has to be fed to save face for the staff, the line is dope and he might have the best QB in the league, and everyone says he's healthy.

If you can get 102 total yards and a TD per game from Gurley or Taylor this year I'd be surprised.

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39 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I am not clear why anyone is assuming he'd be done.

He was solid the first 6 games before his back injury.  Edmonds, and then Drake took over and stylistically and youth wise they were what Kingsbury was looking for.  This does not mean that he's washed.

Everyone says he looks healthy and motivated this year.  I'm very confused why anyone is taking someone like Gurley, who has a degenerative knee condition, or Taylor, who while supremely talented is a rookie and has Mack to contend with, over this dude.

I mean, I'll take it.  But I'm confused.

Also, I don't really see the benefit of cuffing him with Duke.  Duke will never be a feature back, it's been proven.  If you like what Duke brings to your team in standalone value, sure, go for it.  But that is all he will be.  If David gets hurt someone else is getting the carries, maybe someone who isn't on the roster.  But it won't be Duke.

 

He's still a great receiver but I do think he's washed up when it comes to rushing. Watson doesnt like to target RBs.

I disagree about Duke. Guy is similar to Drake in that he was never given a fair shot at being a feature back.

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2 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

He's still a great receiver but I do think he's washed up when it comes to rushing. Watson doesnt like to target RBs.

I disagree about Duke. Guy is similar to Drake in that he was never given a fair shot at being a feature back.

Watson doesn't have Nuk Hopkins anymore.

Or Carlos Hyde for that matter.

His passing profile for last year's team doesn't mean a whole lot to me.  Cooks is a good player, but along with Fuller and Stills is oft injured, and BoB doesn't have motivation to call plays to get him rolling like DJ in light of the trade.

I don't think he's washed as a runner at all.  I think everyone's just going to see how he looks running behind a line that got Hyde 1,000 as opposed to Kingsbury's 4 wide concepts.

I could be wrong.  But I don't think I am.

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Watson doesn't have Nuk Hopkins anymore.

Or Carlos Hyde for that matter.

His passing profile for last year's team doesn't mean a whole lot to me.  Cooks is a good player, but along with Fuller and Stills is oft injured, and BoB doesn't have motivation to call plays to get him rolling like DJ in light of the trade.

I don't think he's washed as a runner at all.  I think everyone's just going to see how he looks running behind a line that got Hyde 1,000 as opposed to Kingsbury's 4 wide concepts.

I could be wrong.  But I don't think I am.

 

BoB loves to run up the middle on 1st and 2nd. Thats probably why Hyde got 1000 yards.  Even in his prime I never thought DJ was an amazing runner. He was great if you got him out in space, especially as a receiver. I dont know if the lack of targets to RBs is a Bob trait or a Watson trait, maybe a bit of both.

Either way I really hate the argument that DJ is going to be good because BoB needs to justify one of the worst trades in NFL history. That honestly wouldnt make me feel safe drafting DJ. I rather not try and go into the mind of BoB. Probably a very scary place to be.

Im staying away. DJ is the poster boy for the RB deadzone this season. Im okay with being wrong with this because I dont see the upside with DJ.

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