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David Johnson 2020 Outlook

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1 minute ago, Evincar said:

 

BoB loves to run up the middle on 1st and 2nd. Thats probably why Hyde got 1000 yards.  Even in his prime I never thought DJ was an amazing runner. He was great if you got him out in space, especially as a receiver. I dont know if the lack of targets to RBs is a Bob trait or a Watson trait, maybe a bit of both.

Either way I really hate the argument that DJ is going to be good because BoB needs to justify one of the worst trades in NFL history. That honestly wouldnt make me feel safe drafting DJ. I rather not try and go into the mind of BoB. Probably a very scary place to be.

Im staying away. DJ is the poster boy for the RB deadzone this season. Im okay with being wrong with this because I dont see the upside with DJ.

Well, agree to disagree.  I promise not to go into the player thread of whatever player you draft over him and rag on him, but suffice to say generally I think if you draft an RB in the 4th round with him on the board you're probably making a mistake.

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3 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I am not clear why anyone is assuming he'd be done.

He was solid the first 6 games before his back injury.  Edmonds, and then Drake took over and stylistically and youth wise they were what Kingsbury was looking for.  This does not mean that he's washed.

Everyone says he looks healthy and motivated this year.  I'm very confused why anyone is taking someone like Gurley, who has a degenerative knee condition, or Taylor, who while supremely talented is a rookie and has Mack to contend with, over this dude.

I mean, I'll take it.  But I'm confused.

Also, I don't really see the benefit of cuffing him with Duke.  Duke will never be a feature back, it's been proven.  If you like what Duke brings to your team in standalone value, sure, go for it.  But that is all he will be.  If David gets hurt someone else is getting the carries, maybe someone who isn't on the roster.  But it won't be Duke.

 

DJ looked REALLY slow when he was running last year. Like sometimes it  looked like he was running with weights on his back or something. One of the things DJ did really well in his early years was jump cut and breaking tackles, but last year he did both of those things a lot less. 

 

Maybe it was injury or being in a new offensive system but there are legitimate concerns about his decline. I watched a lot of cardinals games last year and he just looked slow. And when Drake came he looked a lot better than DJ. I’m not saying DJ will have a bad year, I actually think he can return decent value in the 4th round because of his receiving skills. But people’s concerns are not unfounded.

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Well, agree to disagree.  I promise not to go into the player thread of whatever player you draft over him and rag on him, but suffice to say generally I think if you draft an RB in the 4th round with him on the board you're probably making a mistake.

 

If I draft DJ its only going to be as a RB3. Its difficult to justify not going RB-RB this season.

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2 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

 

DJ looked REALLY slow when he was running last year. Like sometimes it  looked like he was running with weights on his back or something. One of the things DJ did really well in his early years was jump cut and breaking tackles, but last year he did both of those things a lot less. 

 

Maybe it was injury or being in a new offensive system but there are legitimate concerns about his decline. I watched a lot of cardinals games last year and he just looked slow. And when Drake came he looked a lot better than DJ. I’m not saying DJ will have a bad year, I actually think he can return decent value in the 4th round because of his receiving skills. But people’s concerns are not unfounded.

Ok, but the guy averaged 102 total yards and a TD per game over those first 6 before he was injured.

The eye test is one thing when a guy isn't producing, but he was.  Whatever he looked like, prior to the back injury in week 7, it was working.

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7 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

If I draft DJ its only going to be as a RB3. Its difficult to justify not going RB-RB this season.

Yeah, I've drafted him as a flex.  Seemed like a no brainer, after him you're basically rooting on a favorable side of a time share.

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On 9/6/2020 at 11:39 PM, Evincar said:

Even in his prime I never thought DJ was an amazing runner. He was great if you got him out in space, especially as a receiver.

 

In 2015/6 he wasn't flashy but he was VERY effective.  And it had nothing to do with being out in open space.  He picked his way through traffic between the tackles very well.   Reminded me a bit of Marcus Allen at the goal line.

His receiving prowess wasn't just catching swing passes in space and then breaking open field tackles.  He would line up opposite a CB/S and beating coverage to get open.

 

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Just now, Nap Time said:

 

In 2015/6 he wasn't flashy but he was VERY effective.  And it had nothing to do with being out in open space.  He picked his way through traffic between the tackles very well.   Reminded me a bit of Marcus Allen at the goal line.

His receiving prowess wasn't just catching swing passes in space and then breaking open field tackles.  He would line up opposite a CB/S and beating coverage to get open.

 

That's what I recall as well.

As a runner, he was never about breakaway speed or busting tackles, but vision and balance in traffic giving him opportunity.

And I haven't seen much decline in this or his pass catching abilities.

I think this is a tremendous opportunity for him.  The injury risk is real, of course, but he seems capable of rushing for over 1,000, catching over 500 and scoring double digit TDs from scrimmage in this offense.

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He is going to involved all day long, as he is a duel threat.  The team he is on is better in every way, and he does not have to win games on his own. He is healthy, and the best RB on the team.   At 28 he is still peak, and the years off have kept him fresh.

I expect big things this year, and project him as a top 5 RB for 2020.  Not many RB's are the unchallenged #1 on a playoff caliber team, and yet he gets disrespected so mucn that his ADP is in the 4th round.

If you got him you should be happy.

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8 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

He is going to involved all day long, as he is a duel threat.  The team he is on is better in every way, and he does not have to win games on his own. He is healthy, and the best RB on the team.   At 28 he is still peak, and the years off have kept him fresh.

I expect big things this year, and project him as a top 5 RB for 2020.  Not many RB's are the unchallenged #1 on a playoff caliber team, and yet he gets disrespected so mucn that his ADP is in the 4th round.

If you got him you should be happy.


I agree. He is a prime RB2 target if you go RB WR WR RB, especially if you get to pick early.

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Any cardinals fans on this site wanna chime in on wtf happened last season? Hidden injury later disclosed as the ankle?

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3 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Any cardinals fans on this site wanna chime in on wtf happened last season? Hidden injury later disclosed as the ankle?

I think it's reported several times in this thread and I even included a graph that didn't clarify anything:

image.png.2e736d2c543c4fb3d0795828dc6d4066.png

The above are all his rushes and catches in 2019. You can see that in the first 6 games he was fine (RB6 over week 1-6), then got injured (ankle as you said), tried one play in week 7, took some weeks, had a bad return, more weeks off, one decent game in December and then back to nothing. 

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4 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Any cardinals fans on this site wanna chime in on wtf happened last season? Hidden injury later disclosed as the ankle?


Not a Card fan, but 100% stock holder last season (and the season before that sadly, oh and did I mention this season as welll, yea I’m a sucker) and followed the situation very closely. I was pretty excited that he actually got a QB granted a rookie but a number 1 draft pick, a new coach that somewhat know how to draw some Xs and Os on the offense. He was not performing the top 5 pick (I even went all in and picked him 2nd overall) but he was doing exactly what needed of him, by that I meant meeting his projected numbers. Then suddenly he just stopped performing and the whole Drake situation. And the dude clearly was not healthy but yet the damn coach insisting that he was healthy and I remember started him on the news that he is healthy and he played exactly 1 play or 1 rushing play or whatever the hell it was that gave me a goose egg. 
 

Then of course he got traded to Hou in what seem to be a well deserved criticizing move because it is involving Hops and apparently DJ is a damaged good. But there is no way that they brought him in with his contract if they are not intending to play him, give him opportunity to shine, and for the love of god justifying why they got rid of Hops. And his ADP in relation to his snaps, and opportunity is just make sense to give him another chance to be DJ again. 
 

Fool me once...Fool me twice...now if there is a third time...he is dead to me! 
 

A lot of talks about Watson not check down to RBs, but DJ is above average route runner that will find way to get open to help out his QB. 
 

1250 total yards with 8 TDs, his projections on some sites (https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/projections/david-johnson-rb.php

I’d take it. But think that is probably his floor and not his ceiling. 
 

1400/10? Leggoooooo

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DJ won me 2 ships a couple years back.... took him the following two years (incl last year) and was a disappointment, he did have some injury issues last year but should have enough time to heal and be ready to BUCK this year, he will have a lot of motivation on a new team and with people chirping him non stop. If he plays with my emotions again this year hes donezo!

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I don't know what we will get out of this guy, but I do know he has to be supremely motivated.  Being part of a blockbuster trade where most people say you were the short end of a ripoff deal...you're gonna want to prove that wrong.  You don't want to be cited as "worst deal of the century" because you stunk and Hopkins went crazy.

He likely busted his butt this offseason to get in shape and healthy.  That's why he looked so good in camp.  He's gotta be on a mission.

What is unknown is whether he really has lost it, or his poor performance was related to the injuries and the offense.  Hopefully the latter.

In any case, we get to see tonight.

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David Johnson seems like one of those players that pops every several years. Maybe this is the year, possibly the last "pop" given his age lol. Disclaimer: *pop* here means exploding stats all year, not popping some body part.

Edited by young dude

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I know this is the minority point of view, but I’m really struggling to see how he doesn’t end up as an RB1 this year if he plays all 16. Best offensive line and quarterback of his career. He will also be one of the biggest receiving threats on the team. Yes yes I know, “Watson doesn’t pass to RBs.” But the first thing O’Brien said after the trade is how incredible of 3 down option Johnson is. He will be utilized in the passing game. Three speedster receivers taking the lid off the defense and Johnson will feast in the middle of the field. There is no true alpha receiver on this team, which is great for DJ. Sky is the limit here (hopefully he doesn’t flop tonight and make me look like an idiot). 

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1 minute ago, young dude said:

David Johnson seems like one of those players that pops every several years. Maybe this is the year, possibly the last "pop" given his age lol. Disclaimer: *pop* here means exploding stats all year, not popping some body part.

He should be better than Carlos Hyde. Those are my expectations. He's superior to Hyde, especially as a pass-catcher. If he puts up worse numbers it would be shocking, barring injury.

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3 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

 He will be utilized in the passing game. Three speedster receivers taking the lid off the defense and Johnson will feast in the middle of the field. There is no true alpha receiver on this team, which is great for DJ. Sky is the limit here (hopefully he doesn’t flop tonight and make me look like an idiot). 

 

To back this up, I found this article before the draft which was the reason I took DJ out of Bell/DJ/Gordon:

 

Quote

Over the last few years, analyzing vacated target numbers for each NFL team became an off-season exercise I chose to partake in out of pure curiosity. I wanted to see if there was any correlation or anything predictive about where the targets were heading for offenses that had to be completely remade each year. I stumbled upon a glaring conclusion that seems to have stayed relatively sticky year-to-year in Vacated Targets & Predicting the Future in Fantasy Football: teams with high vacated target totals end up siphoning a higher percentage of their targets to the RB position.

 

Houston is second with 14.3 vacated targets per game after losing Hopkins.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/running-backs-who-will-benefit-from-vacated-targets-fantasy-football/

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12 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

He should be better than Carlos Hyde. Those are my expectations. He's superior to Hyde, especially as a pass-catcher. If he puts up worse numbers it would be shocking, barring injury.

 

Agree.  Hyde 2019 should be his floor if he stays healthy.

 

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8 minutes ago, screaming_vultures said:

So to sum it up, every week he doesn’t get hurt is a W for us ... that’s where we are at essentially 

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