affliction

David Johnson 2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, ed06288 said:

i like buy-low candidates. i actually think david johnson is bad-ish but with how coveted the running back position is in fantasy, you have to get creative in later rounds. i'm not big on wide receivers anyway. the question is where to value him.

Some folks here think 4th round.

Too rich for my blood.  I could maybe see 5th.  But to each their own.

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10 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Some folks here think 4th round.

Too rich for my blood.  I could maybe see 5th.  But to each their own.

I think he could have pretty good value in the 4th round or later...Especially in PPR leagues 

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1 minute ago, hockeyfan77 said:

I think he could have pretty good value in the 4th round or later...Especially in PPR leagues 

Not disagreeing with 4th round - but Watson basically never throws to his RBs.

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Not disagreeing with 4th round - but Watson basically never throws to his RBs.

True, hoping that will change but you are right he doesn't 

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If you draft David Johnson prepare to be frustrated when you see D.Johnson Touchdown and it’s Duke. 

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Enjoy his 4 decent games. As for duke johnson being more involved that dream died for me when i was all over him last year and i learned my lesson about texans running backs since arian foster has left that team 

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Posted (edited)

If Frikken Carlos Hyde can produce on this offense last year I can def see DJ having a "good" year at the Least. Although...Hopkins is gone so....that can only hurt DJ..so yea. ....stay away. 

Edited by SyNdicateZ

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On 4/15/2020 at 10:40 AM, predator_05 said:

 

As you were the one touting him to everyone who would listen, what do you think of him now? Curious.


Thank you for asking. I think it will be hard for DJ to fail as a low-end RB1 in Houston barring injury. We still don’t know if he’s fully recovered from whatever derailed him after he started off as a top-6 RB the first 6 weeks of last season.

 

I don’t think he has the ceiling to crack the top 6-7 RBs this year but I hope he proves me wrong. If he is somehow your 3rd RB or even your second RB after you’ve drafted a stud WR, I would like your chances of winning your league.

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:


Thank you for asking. I think it will be hard for DJ to fail as a low-end RB1 in Houston barring injury. We still don’t know if he’s fully recovered from whatever derailed him after he started off as a top-6 RB the first 6 weeks of last season.

 

I don’t think he has the ceiling to crack the top 6-7 RBs this year but I hope he proves me wrong. If he is somehow your 3rd RB or even your second RB after you’ve drafted a stud WR, I would like your chances of winning your league.

RB1?  I’m not saying that’s impossible, but it really seems unlikely given what we know of his health, past few years of performance, and the performance of multiple former starting RBs for the Texans under Watson.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

RB1?  I’m not saying that’s impossible, but it really seems unlikely given what we know of his health, past few years of performance, and the performance of multiple former starting RBs for the Texans under Watson.


Before he got hurt last year, he was the overall RB6, coming off a season where he was a top-10 RB. Finishing as a top-12 RB is reasonable if he stays healthy given Watson and the GL opportunities he has — in the same offense Carlos Hyde just ran for 1000 yards in.

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i like the comparisons to carlos hyde. david johnson could get a lot of volume this year. what round would 2019 carlos hyde go in a hypothetical redraft? 

at the same time, david johnsons role is unclear, plus his age, are something to consider.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/15/2020 at 8:46 PM, Belmundo said:

Up to week 6 last year DJ was between the top 6-8 ranked RB in PPR before his injury and whatever the hell else happened in zona. If he can remain healthy and obrien can dial up some actual passing plays for him along with a rare watson dump off or two, then I don't see why he couldn't return top 10 numbers this year (if we have a season). 

 

3 hours ago, joshua18 said:


Before he got hurt last year, he was the overall RB6, coming off a season where he was a top-10 RB. Finishing as a top-12 RB is reasonable if he stays healthy given Watson and the GL opportunities he has — in the same offense Carlos Hyde just ran for 1000 yards in.


Said the same thing. Baring injury and game plan, I can't see how he doesn't perform this season. Depending on how the draft goes, you can take advantage of the recency bias and get him as a late RB that should pay big dividends. 

Edited by Belmundo

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5 hours ago, Belmundo said:

 


Said the same thing. Baring injury and game plan, I can't see how he doesn't perform this season. Depending on how the draft goes, you can take advantage of the recency bias and get him as a late RB that should pay big dividends. 

Yeah...I don’t know if we should write off the last couple of years of sub-4.0-ypc production as “recency bias.”

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11 hours ago, BMcP said:

Yeah...I don’t know if we should write off the last couple of years of sub-4.0-ypc production as “recency bias.”

 

2017 obviously a wash due to injury. 2018 the genius that is Wilks repeatedly slammed DJ up the middle and he was still able to muster 3.6 ypc. 2019 we saw more of the same boneheaded play calling early on and of course due to injury again, he only had 36% of the number of attempts as he had in 2018 but he still averaged 3.7 ypc. With more carries in 2019, he could have increased his ypc. Regardless though, in PPR, the difference between 3.6-7 ypc vs. 4.00 is pretty negligible. 

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And to further illustrate how negligible it is: 250 attempts x .5 (half a yard) = 125 additional yards / 10 yards (per point) = 12.5 pts / 16 (# of games) = 0.78pts additional points per matchup.

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25 minutes ago, Belmundo said:

 

2017 obviously a wash due to injury. 2018 the genius that is Wilks repeatedly slammed DJ up the middle and he was still able to muster 3.6 ypc. 2019 we saw more of the same boneheaded play calling early on and of course due to injury again, he only had 36% of the number of attempts as he had in 2018 but he still averaged 3.7 ypc. With more carries in 2019, he could have increased his ypc. Regardless though, in PPR, the difference between 3.6-7 ypc vs. 4.00 is pretty negligible. 

In PPR is precisely what I worry about.  No one dumps off less often than Watson.

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21 hours ago, joshua18 said:


Before he got hurt last year, he was the overall RB6, coming off a season where he was a top-10 RB. Finishing as a top-12 RB is reasonable if he stays healthy given Watson and the GL opportunities he has — in the same offense Carlos Hyde just ran for 1000 yards in.


DJ was a top 6 back Last year in the first 6 weeks but what saved him was receiving stats and 5 TDs in 6 games. He broke 40 rushing yards just 2 times in 6 games and averaged under 4.0 a carry in the same offense 2 other RBs excelled in. However he was is pass happy offense that was usually down the whole game and passing till the last second. Watson doesn’t feed the RB position with a lot of passes and duke Johnson is on the team and is every bit as good a receiving back as DJ at this point.
 

I agree if he is healthy he could do better than Carlos Hyde did last year but that isn’t hard considering Hyde was the RB27 last year. RB12 numbers are not that daunting but I don’t know if DJ gets there. I’d rather take a shot at an RB who appears to have more juice in the tank. 

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DJ is a guy I'm staying away from. The offense is perfect for him, so that's not the problem. DJ's managed a little over 2000 yfs and 16 TDs combined since his breakout in 2016. He's averaging 3.6 ypc since 2016.

Time will tell where he's going in drafts but I'll be willing to sit back and let him "show me" what he's doing in 2020.

 

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1 hour ago, SuperJoint said:

DJ is a guy I'm staying away from. The offense is perfect for him, so that's not the problem. DJ's managed a little over 2000 yfs and 16 TDs combined since his breakout in 2016. He's averaging 3.6 ypc since 2016.

Time will tell where he's going in drafts but I'll be willing to sit back and let him "show me" what he's doing in 2020.

 

That’s the thing about DJ tho

He won’t do it 2 seasons in a row.   The time to strike is the third round this season.   

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

That’s the thing about DJ tho

He won’t do it 2 seasons in a row.   The time to strike is the third round this season.   

I do understand where you're coming from on this - I do not have that level of testicular fortitude however. No Guts No Glory does apply in fantasy - sometimes...

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23 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

I do understand where you're coming from on this - I do not have that level of testicular fortitude however. No Guts No Glory does apply in fantasy - sometimes...


Yes we will see...  I think BoB will have a deep desire to justify the capital spent.   Whether DJ takes advantage is another story eh 

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David Johnson 2020 is Lesean McCoy 2019.  Just good enough to tease that he will somehow recreate his past glory.  Johnson will be a fantasy albatross, not in a good way.

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19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

David Johnson 2020 is Lesean McCoy 2019.  Just good enough to tease that he will somehow recreate his past glory.  Johnson will be a fantasy albatross, not in a good way.

Boooooooooooo this man!!

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On 4/16/2020 at 8:28 PM, BMcP said:

RB1?  I’m not saying that’s impossible, but it really seems unlikely given what we know of his health, past few years of performance, and the performance of multiple former starting RBs for the Texans under Watson.


 

13 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

DJ is a guy I'm staying away from. The offense is perfect for him, so that's not the problem. DJ's managed a little over 2000 yfs and 16 TDs combined since his breakout in 2016. He's averaging 3.6 ypc since 2016.

Time will tell where he's going in drafts but I'll be willing to sit back and let him "show me" what he's doing in 2020.

 

 

 

 

Even if he IS washed up, and he averages 3.6 ypc, does that really matter to Bill o'brien?

 

Bill o'brien is a boring, predictable and old-fashioned coach. He uses RBs to kill time and keep the ball. I don't think BoB gives a **** about RBs having low ypc.

 

Here's BoB's record with running backs:

2015: gave a total of 280 carries to Alfred Blue and Chris Polk while both were averaging less than 4 yards per carry.

2016: Lamar Miller 268 carries @ 4.0 ypc

2017: Lamar Miller 238 @ 3.7 ypc

2018: Lamar Miller 210 @ a decent 4.6 ypc, but also another 150 for Alfred Blue @ 3.3 ypc (lol wtf)

2019: Carlos Hyde 245 @ 4.4

 

and let's not forget his record as Patriots offensive coordinator:

2011: Ben Jarvus Green Ellis 181 @ 3.7

 

 

 

Where's our texans expert?

@Dreams And Dwightmares

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15 hours ago, Stonej14 said:


DJ was a top 6 back Last year in the first 6 weeks but what saved him was receiving stats and 5 TDs in 6 games. He broke 40 rushing yards just 2 times in 6 games and averaged under 4.0 a carry in the same offense 2 other RBs excelled in. However he was is pass happy offense that was usually down the whole game and passing till the last second. Watson doesn’t feed the RB position with a lot of passes and duke Johnson is on the team and is every bit as good a receiving back as DJ at this point.
 

I agree if he is healthy he could do better than Carlos Hyde did last year but that isn’t hard considering Hyde was the RB27 last year. RB12 numbers are not that daunting but I don’t know if DJ gets there. I’d rather take a shot at an RB who appears to have more juice in the tank. 

 

Spot on analysis. 

Guessing those that are projecting DJ to bounce back are those for the most part that did not own him last year. 

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