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David Johnson 2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, The G Man said:

 

Spot on analysis. 

Guessing those that are projecting DJ to bounce back are those for the most part that did not own him last year. 


I owned him last year and would gladly take him as my third RB this year.

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10 minutes ago, joshua18 said:


I owned him last year and would gladly take him as my third RB this year.

Big difference between taking him as a 3rd RB and those that are projecting RB1 value. As a 3rd RB, you're talking RB2/Flex value. Very possible with the volume he should get in Houston, assuming he stays healthy of course.

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1 hour ago, The G Man said:

Big difference between taking him as a 3rd RB and those that are projecting RB1 value. As a 3rd RB, you're talking RB2/Flex value. Very possible with the volume he should get in Houston, assuming he stays healthy of course.


so three straight rbs to start your draft?    Realistically he can’t be expected to be there in the fourth.   

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14 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


so three straight rbs to start your draft?    Realistically he can’t be expected to be there in the fourth.   


Yea that’s the problem. DJ in the 4th as your 3rd RB is probably a pipe dream for nearly all competitive leagues 

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2 hours ago, The G Man said:

Big difference between taking him as a 3rd RB and those that are projecting RB1 value. As a 3rd RB, you're talking RB2/Flex value. Very possible with the volume he should get in Houston, assuming he stays healthy of course.


That’s the point. When your 3rd RB is a low-end RB1 is when you win leagues. DJ’s floor barring injury in HOU is very high.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:


so three straight rbs to start your draft?    Realistically he can’t be expected to be there in the fourth.   


Yup. In the third rd his ADP will likely be in the mid teens for RBs, which I expect will be below his floor. 
 

I think so many were burned by him last year that he’ll end up at a 4th rd ADP.

Edited by joshua18

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Some interesting stats from 2019


Hyde redzone rushing: 5 TDs on 32 attempts

Duke redzone rushing: 2 TDs on 9 attempts

Deshaun Watson redzone rushing: 6 TDs on 14 attempts

 

Do we think the redzone opportunity improves or declines with Cooks replacing Hopkins? Will Watson himself end up running more outside of the redzone? Can DJ absorb a large portion of Duke's receiving and redzone work in addition to the Hyde role he is taking?

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52 minutes ago, sSektor said:

Some interesting stats from 2019


Hyde redzone rushing: 5 TDs on 32 attempts

Duke redzone rushing: 2 TDs on 9 attempts

Deshaun Watson redzone rushing: 6 TDs on 14 attempts

 

Do we think the redzone opportunity improves or declines with Cooks replacing Hopkins? Will Watson himself end up running more outside of the redzone? Can DJ absorb a large portion of Duke's receiving and redzone work in addition to the Hyde role he is taking?


safe to say there will be a lot of changes with a complete back like DJ and no Nuk.  Also fairly safe to assume he eclipses 250 touches- with a bigger role in the passing game compared to Hyde.  DJ can lineup all over the field.  That’s a recipe for success at a third round price. 

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Remember the raging debate over DJ v. Saquon before Saquon's rookie year?  That seems like so long ago.

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Posted (edited)

Drafting David Johnson in the 4th or 5th round as a rb3 sounds like a good plan if you can pull it off. I actually wouldn't mind drafting him as my 4th running back and keeping him as depth. But it would require passing on a player like a cooper kupp or stefon diggs though. as the season progresses, i usually end up wishing i had drafted an extra running back somewhere. 

at the least, i think his situation is better than melvin gordons, and his only competition is duke johnson.

 

Edited by ed06288
double post

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Posted (edited)
On 4/18/2020 at 5:18 PM, Impreza178 said:


safe to say there will be a lot of changes with a complete back like DJ and no Nuk.  Also fairly safe to assume he eclipses 250 touches- with a bigger role in the passing game compared to Hyde.  DJ can lineup all over the field.  That’s a recipe for success at a third round price. 


You are correct sir, who knows what will happen without Nuk but complete backs can run the ball well... or atleast average.. DJ can’t do that anymore he’s lost a step or something. I doubt he does any better than Lamar Miller who was also a complete back and didn’t have duke Johnson there to steal 3rd down work.  Lamar millers best finish was RB 16 in half PPR and he had over 270 touches. 
 

Edited by Stonej14

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I think the point here is to make sure to Target whatever rookie Houston drafts late at RB, he will have a shot to be the starter come fantasy playoff time, I'd think by week 10 for sure.

 

Maybe Keshawn Vaughn or somebody like that.

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On 4/19/2020 at 12:11 PM, ed06288 said:

Drafting David Johnson in the 4th or 5th round as a rb3 sounds like a good plan if you can pull it off. I actually wouldn't mind drafting him as my 4th running back and keeping him as depth. But it would require passing on a player like a cooper kupp or stefon diggs though. as the season progresses, i usually end up wishing i had drafted an extra running back somewhere. 

at the least, i think his situation is better than melvin gordons, and his only competition is duke johnson.

 

 

I'd take DJ anytime after the first three rounds. Haven't really looked at ADP yet. Just make sure to grab whoever his backup is late. Top 5 RB if he can stay on the field for me.

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On 4/20/2020 at 9:56 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I think the point here is to make sure to Target whatever rookie Houston drafts late at RB, he will have a shot to be the starter come fantasy playoff time, I'd think by week 10 for sure.

 

They didn't draft anyone, but they signed up Scottie Philips as UDFA from Ole Miss.

He had a great 2018 campaign, then went absolutely berserk in this game:

 

(21/141/3 + 2/28) then got injured and had only a handful of (unsuccessful) carries the rest of the season. In 2019 a similar story; a decent season, then another injury in November.

@DerrickHenrysCleats do you know this kid? I read he's not a 3-down back, but he certainly looks like he could grab some work between the tackles?

 

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14 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

 

They didn't draft anyone, but they signed up Scottie Philips as UDFA from Ole Miss.

He had a great 2018 campaign, then went absolutely berserk in this game:

 

(21/141/3 + 2/28) then got injured and had only a handful of (unsuccessful) carries the rest of the season. In 2019 a similar story; a decent season, then another injury in November.

@DerrickHenrysCleats do you know this kid? I read he's not a 3-down back, but he certainly looks like he could grab some work between the tackles?

 

 

Yep, Phillips is a decent between the tackles runner. He isn't especially elusive and doesn't have the best vision but he is a tough runner between the tackles. Nothing about him stands out as flashy traits but he was a relatively effective runner on a bad offense. I don't think he is a 3 down back but with only David Johnson and Duke Johnson ahead of him on the depth chart has a chance to be relevant if someone gets injured so late season games and fantasy playoffs he could find himself being relevant.

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On 4/20/2020 at 2:56 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I think the point here is to make sure to Target whatever rookie Tennessee drafts late at RB, he will have a shot to be the starter come fantasy playoff time, I'd think by week 10 for sure.


FTFY

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21 hours ago, The G Man said:

Interesting take on DJ by this RW writer. 

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/nfl-player-profile/david-johnson-fantasys-cheapest-3-down-rb

He left out the fact that Houston doesn't throw a lot to their backs, but it's otherwise a pretty objective viewpoint IMO. 

Wow, watching that one clip where he's looking like he's wearing concrete boots coming out of the backfield at a half trot is just scary.

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4 hours ago, CooL said:

Wow, watching that one clip where he's looking like he's wearing concrete boots coming out of the backfield at a half trot is just scary.

You must not have been in his 2019 Outlook thread. It was quite the topic of conversation at the time. 

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10 hours ago, CooL said:

Wow, watching that one clip where he's looking like he's wearing concrete boots coming out of the backfield at a half trot is just scary.

Ouch. I get faster out of my chair when I go for a coffee.

image.png.2e736d2c543c4fb3d0795828dc6d4066.png

These are all DJs rush/pass playes for 2019. As you can see, he did reasonably in the first half, then got injured, then wasn't a shadow of his former self.

- week 1-6 DJ was RB6. That's fine.

- Then he got injured and played 1 snap against the Giants.

- week 10 was the horrible game where he has 5 att for 2 total yards

- week 13/14 he was RB36. That's... not good. 

I'm going to say he was clearly still injured towards the end of the season, but I can only hope he comes back to some degree in 2020. We all love the guy, he was legendary in 2016, but I'm not sure he can be even top 10 in 2020.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/6/2020 at 9:47 PM, Boudewijn said:

 

They didn't draft anyone, but they signed up Scottie Philips as UDFA from Ole Miss.


As a current owner of David Johnson in 2 Dynasty leagues, Phillips is a must have/get (if you have the roster space of course), as IMHO he may provide what Duke can’t IF DJ were to fail/go down...Phillips offers just a little piece of mind. 

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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On 5/6/2020 at 6:24 PM, dmb3684 said:

 

I'd take DJ anytime after the first three rounds. Haven't really looked at ADP yet. Just make sure to grab whoever his backup is late. Top 5 RB if he can stay on the field for me.

 

No way is he top 15 let alone top 5. Youre basically hoping he is somehow rejuvenated going to a Bill O'Brien coached team. Im not taking that risk.

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38 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

No way is he top 15 let alone top 5. Youre basically hoping he is somehow rejuvenated going to a Bill O'Brien coached team. Im not taking that risk.

 

It worked for Carlos Hyde

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8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

It worked for Carlos Hyde

 

Sure for a late round pick he produced very well (Low-end RB2) The problem with DJ is that he might be completely cooked as a NFL RB. I dont think he has much upside. Im not sure if I want to invest a 4th or 5th round pick on a RB whose production is tied strictly to volume.

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