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Brandon Woodruff 2020 Outlook

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2020 ya'll

 

Closer turned starter. And he performed with elite numbers. The question is ....is it sustainable? He is only 26 and playing on a team that wins.

 

Whats your take?

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K.

 

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
3 Yrs 16 6 .727 3.87 49 34 4 0 0 1 207.0 188 90 89 21 58 1 222 10 1 2 853 113 3.35 1.188 8.2 0.9 2.5 9.7 3.83  
162 Game Avg. 13 5 .727 3.87 40 28 3 0 0 1 170 154 74 73 17 48 1 182 8 1 2 699 113 3.35 1.188 8.2 0.9 2.5 9.7 3.83
2017 24 MIL NL 2 3 .400 4.81 8 8 0 0 0 0 43.0 43 23 23 5 14 1 32 3 0 0 184 92 4.37 1.326 9.0 1.0 2.9 6.7 2.29  
2018 25 MIL NL 3 0 1.000 3.61 19 4 4 0 0 1 42.1 36 18 17 4 14 0 47 2 0 1 176 114 3.30 1.181 7.7 0.9 3.0 10.0 3.36  
2019 26 MIL NL 11 3 .786 3.62 22 22 0 0 0 0 121.2 109 49 49 12 30 0 143 5 1 1 493 123 3.01 1.142 8.1 0.9 2.2 10.6 4.77 AS
Edited by MSkibisky
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His ADP is ~96.  Seems a little low.  Probably a guy that it is going to be necessary to reach for a round or two.

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PL has him as SP33. I probably have him around SP30. Very good SP3 in 12-team leagues. 

 

From PL:

Nick’s Reluctant Projection: 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 29% K rate in 190 IP

 

That seems about right. Let's hope he continues to develop his slider. 

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

His ADP is ~96.  Seems a little low.  Probably a guy that it is going to be necessary to reach for a round or two.


Just filter the recent drafts and he’s going closer to 80.  He’s been a major helium guy since November and if he looks good in the spring expect him to go even higher

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I’m torn on Woodruff. I was pretty high on him earlier in my draft prep process, but I’m now leaning towards fading him. He’s not cheap going ~84th in NFBC drafts.


My main concern is the massive downgrade in catcher in going from Grandal to Narvaez. According to Statcast, Grandal was the 3rd best framer last year, while Narvaez ranked 54th. It gets worse looking at Baseball Prospectus’ data which ranked Grandal 3rd and Narvaez 110th (I didn’t even realize there were that many catchers to play last year. It doesn’t get any better looking at Fangraph’s defensive metrics. By defensive WAR, Grandal ranked 4th while Narvaez ranked 91st - dead last.

 

For you analytic types, how much of a downgrade can we anticipate with this change? Also, on the other end, how much will Grandal impact the White Sox starters?

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26 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I’m torn on Woodruff. I was pretty high on him earlier in my draft prep process, but I’m now leaning towards fading him. He’s not cheap going ~84th in NFBC drafts.


My main concern is the massive downgrade in catcher in going from Grandal to Narvaez. According to Statcast, Grandal was the 3rd best framer last year, while Narvaez ranked 54th. It gets worse looking at Baseball Prospectus’ data which ranked Grandal 3rd and Narvaez 110th (I didn’t even realize there were that many catchers to play last year. It doesn’t get any better looking at Fangraph’s defensive metrics. By defensive WAR, Grandal ranked 4th while Narvaez ranked 91st - dead last.

 

For you analytic types, how much of a downgrade can we anticipate with this change? Also, on the other end, how much will Grandal impact the White Sox starters?

 

Great info. I knew Grandal was good and Narvaez was bad but didn't realize it was that big of a difference. Something to keep in mind for all Brewers pitchers.

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I don't like the price of Woodruff this year, but I could potentially be 'wooed' into investing in him. 

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I'm going to hop on this guy's back and ride him like a magical unicorn through the gates of Valhalla and on to a championship.

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7 hours ago, GrapeJuice said:

I'm going to hop on this guy's back and ride him like a magical unicorn through the gates of Valhalla and on to a championship.

 

giphy.gif

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On 2/7/2020 at 6:33 PM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

PL has him as SP33. I probably have him around SP30. Very good SP3 in 12-team leagues. 

 

From PL:

Nick’s Reluctant Projection: 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 29% K rate in 190 IP

 

That seems about right. Let's hope he continues to develop his slider. 

I'd say it's too low. There are several pitchers they have ranked ahead of him that aren't any more proven than he is or just simply weren't as good, like Gallen.

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54 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I'd say it's too low. There are several pitchers they have ranked ahead of him that aren't any more proven than he is or just simply weren't as good, like Gallen.

I could see him being a bit closer to SP25 by the end of the season. On the bright side, his barrel%, exit velocity, and hard hit% were all excellent in 2019. Let's just hope for 180 innings.

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Paul Sporer of FG has him listed @ 26 in his Top 125 SPs

 

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The next Nick Pivetta...maybe, according to Rob Silver.

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I guess I'm just not quite as high on him as many in here...He is good but I'm not sold on him at his ADP

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11 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

The next Nick Pivetta...maybe, according to Rob Silver.

 

THE BAT is low on him as well, FWIW.

I really like Woodruff but his price just seems way too high for someone who hasn't made more than 22 starts in a season.

He doesn't go very deep in his starts either.

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80ish seems about right for a high floor unknown ceiling guy. As an ex reliever 2 years removed we have to hope he is working on other pitches plus we have to assume he can go deeper into games this year. Not sure how much I believe in him but am sure there are worse gambles. He would really benefit from real baseballs instead of the zippy balls from last year.

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On 2/16/2020 at 11:06 PM, 89Topps said:
The next Nick Pivetta...maybe, according to Rob Silver.

I have to say that it is indeed unfair. Not quite sure how the WHIP prediction makes much sense, which would change things obviously. Not saying he should be viewed as an ace yet, but his WHIP the last two seasons has been 1.18 and 1.14. A WHIP of 1.28 would be more than out of the ordinary, especially when combining the last two seasons, it would amount to roughly 3/4 of a season.

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On 2/17/2020 at 7:47 AM, Sidearmer said:

 

He doesn't go very deep in his starts either.

His IP from games 5/8 to 7/16 and then dealt with an oblique injury 

 

6 IP

6

8

8

4

6

7

6

7

7.2

6

6.2

Edited by davidgoretiz
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Woodruff's fastball is his best pitch, where Pivetta's best pitch is the curve. That is why that comparison makes no sense. 

Odorizzi would be a more apt cynical comparison. Both live off their fastballs, have a decent/ok 2nd pitch (Woodruff's Slider, Odorizzi's Splitter), while all other pitches are inconsistent/un-reliable.

Difference is Woodruff is putting up higher K% then Odorizzi ever has.

Edited by Slatykamora

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18 minutes ago, davidgoretiz said:

His IP from games 5/8 to 7/16 and then dealt with an oblique injury 

 

6 IP

6

8

8

4

6

7

6

7

7.2

6

6.2

 

 

IP/GS of 6.5 during that time, which is at the top of all SP's in MLB.

 

But overall in 2019 he was at 5.5 IP/GS.

 

Assuming he's healthy, let's hope for closer to 6.5.

 

 

 

 

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