Flyman75

Alex Bregman 2020 Outlook

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Generally considered a top three 3B, but that top five will be tightly packed together. I'm curious about whether or not we'll see the cheating scandal affect his play this year at all. I believe most are already expecting Bregman's HR totals to drop, which only seems logical. But what does his 2020 season look like? 

I'm guessing a .290s BA with HRs somewhere around 30-32 and probably 200 R-RBI. The SBs seem to be mostly gone, so expecting more than 5-8 doesn't seem reasonable even though he has the speed to steal 15-20. 

Thoughts on Bregman's 2020? 

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Xba is 272.  Xslg in the 400s.  There’s also a lot of articles recently (and during the season) about how he got lucky with his HRs.  Combine that with the sign stealing nonsense and he’s a hard fade in standard 5x5.  Even in OBP, where he has a high floor, I’m likely to pass this year 

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35 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Xba is 272.  Xslg in the 400s.  There’s also a lot of articles recently (and during the season) about how he got lucky with his HRs.  Combine that with the sign stealing nonsense and he’s a hard fade in standard 5x5.  Even in OBP, where he has a high floor, I’m likely to pass this year 

His XBA in 2018 was .271 and XSlug was 468.

There is a point in that he really didn't improve any of his quality on contact to indicate why his HR/FB rate jumped from 14 to 18%.  He's a very solid bet to at least repeat his .285 BA, 30+ HR 100/100 R/RBI production he had in 2018. I'd trust the track record over the XStats. xStats are not THAT accurate. It's a formula with a lot of moving parts.

I will point out the increase in LA that may have helped his small jump in HR/FB rate.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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Not that you can draft or not draft on fear, but he seems like the biggest smug prick on that team that will likely be wearing the heaters throughout the year from angry teams and pitchers.  I’m avoiding all together this year.  There’s too many players I like more around his ADP to reach or grab where he’s going.  

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4 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Xba is 272.  Xslg in the 400s.  There’s also a lot of articles recently (and during the season) about how he got lucky with his HRs.  Combine that with the sign stealing nonsense and he’s a hard fade in standard 5x5.  Even in OBP, where he has a high floor, I’m likely to pass this year 

Totally agree with you.  Bregman was a fade for me even before this cheating scandal came out.   One thing I will say is that I'm not convinced that the Astros will not try to find a new way to cheat.  Look at the Patriots; getting caught never stopped them.  In this case, all the Astros players got off totally free too.  Do you really think the threat of the new manager and new GM also getting fired is going to stop the players? 

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5 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

His XBA in 2018 was .271 and XSlug was 468.

There is a point in that he really didn't improve any of his quality on contact to indicate why his HR/FB rate jumped from 14 to 18%.  He's a very solid bet to at least repeat his .285 BA, 30+ HR 100/100 R/RBI production he had in 2018. I'd trust the track record over the XStats. xStats are not THAT accurate. It's a formula with a lot of moving parts.

I will point out the increase in LA that may have helped his small jump in HR/FB rate.

 

 

It's not so much the xstats; I only posted those to show that being a "solid bet" to hit 285 isn't really a given.  I would say he has a strong chance to hit 270, though.

I'm more concerned with his lucky HR numbers. And all the extra nonsense too

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Bregman is more a floor play then anything. He's been around 700 PAs each of the last 2 years. Regardless of the rate stats. He racks up the counting stats. No injury question marks, near the top of a loaded LU.

Tend to shy away from drafting non steal guys in the first. So I don't dis-agree with passing on him. Also get why people want a high floor play as their 1st rounder.

.291/.409/.561 Triple slash line across nearly 1400 PAs. I'm not making as big of a deal about the sign stealing for a player of his talent level. Could see his BB rate regress. He was a top prospect for a reason. 

Remember the height of the sign stealing was in 2017. He didn't fully break until 2018. When more teams were likely wise to it.

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ADP of 1 in my Big Money Punchable Faces league. I'm sure he'll have a great season, if for no other reason than that's how the world works now. Slatykamora is right that he's a floor play and should have elite R/RBI counting stats. His ADP in non-Big Money Punchable Faces leagues is probably too rich considering his lack of speed.

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I don’t love how high I have to take him, but minus the steals he is going to be an elite fantasy player. OBP/RBI’s/Runs/HR’s are all going to be great. Homers will drop a bit but that’s okay. A .400+ OBP 100+ runs 100+ RBI’s and 30+ homers is nothing to sneeze at. Basically Soto numbers, except Soto is being drafted a bit later and gets a few more steals. 

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19 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

It's not so much the xstats; I only posted those to show that being a "solid bet" to hit 285 isn't really a given.  I would say he has a strong chance to hit 270, though.

I'm more concerned with his lucky HR numbers. And all the extra nonsense too

 

He's a much more solid bet to hit .285 than .270, if for no other reason than he's hit .284, .286, and .296 in his three full MLB seasons. He's shown himself to be a .284+ guy and is just entering his age-26 season. 

I do tend to agree about the HRs. 

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10 minutes ago, EastboundandDown said:

Not drafting any Astros hitters this year.  Dark cloud hanging over them plus pitchers throwing at them.  And now they can't cheat!  Count me out!

This reasoning right here is why I will be buying all the Astros at discounted prices this year. 

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On my DND list, guy doesn't steal, isn't anything special in the first 2 rounds compared to the other guys. I'll be bidding him early in hopes that some other sucker grabs him for $40+

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I'm not drafting Bregman this year (at his price) because of the lack of SB. Has nothing to do with the cheating scandal for me personally. 

 

You'll have to end up playing catch up at 2B and OF for your SB. 

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On 2/17/2020 at 8:54 PM, sasnumberonefan said:

This reasoning right here is why I will be buying all the Astros at discounted prices this year. 

I doubt they will be discounted much if any. But regardless they won't be on my team. 

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I remember circa 2017-2018 stepping back and admiring how much he had improved. His plate discipline and pitch recognition almost became Joey Votto-like overnight. Of course if you know what pitch is coming that makes looking like Joey Votto a lot easier.

 

He’s a talented baseball player for sure. Makes good contact. But how much of those BB/OBP will go down after the cheating scandal expose? Hard to say

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At age 13–at the time, a head shorter than his 5-foot-4-inch (1.63 m) mother–in his bar mitzvah speech he said: "I want to be a professional athlete who plays for the love of the game, never quits trying to give my best, and is a good role model for all of the kids who look up to baseball players."

 

 

That aged well.......

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On 2/17/2020 at 8:43 PM, EastboundandDown said:

Not drafting any Astros hitters this year.  Dark cloud hanging over them plus pitchers throwing at them.  And now they can't cheat!  Count me out!

 

Rather than believing a narrative based on the words of others try looking at the evidence yourself and coming to your own conclusions. If you did, you'd see that many of these cheaters had better numbers on the road during the regular season '17-'19. Those who didn't the numbers weren't that far off...and they play at a hitter friendly park. Everyone sees the drum videos. They were just working out the kinks. Trying to find ways to pull it off without the other team knowing. They weren't doing it every game. Just getting ready to unleash their perfected technique when it counts..........during the playoffs.......big discrepancy in the splits. BUT.....

the MLB fantasy season ends before the MLB fantasy season.

Side note: the Chapman vs Altuve HR gets a lot of attention but the evidence to me isn't the hits they were getting during the playoffs. Just because you know what's coming doesn't mean you'll get a hit. Just look at the HR derby. It was the pitches they were taking that made it obvious. They rarely swung at non-fastballs. When they did is was with two strikes in the zone. 

Edited by this guy right here
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12 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

Outlook?  He will be hit by many pitches this year.

Outlook? More like look out!

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3 hours ago, this guy right here said:

 

Rather than believing a narrative based on the words of others try looking at the evidence yourself and coming to your own conclusions. If you did, you'd see that many of these cheaters had better numbers on the road during the regular season '17-'19. Those who didn't the numbers weren't that far off...and they play at a hitter friendly park. Everyone sees the drum videos. They were just working out the kinks. Trying to find ways to pull it off without the other team knowing. They weren't doing it every game. Just getting ready to unleash their perfected technique when it counts..........during the playoffs.......big discrepancy in the splits. BUT.....

the MLB fantasy season ends before the MLB fantasy season.

Side note: the Chapman vs Altuve HR gets a lot of attention but the evidence to me isn't the hits they were getting during the playoffs. Just because you know what's coming doesn't mean you'll get a hit. Just look at the HR derby. It was the pitches they were taking that made it obvious. They rarely swung at non-fastballs. When they did is was with two strikes in the zone. 

 

Also if you are to believe the investigation, which i do, the Astros only cheated in 2017. 

The players were granted immunity so why would they admit to 2017 and lie about 2018 and 2019?

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2 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

 

Also if you are to believe the investigation, which i do, the Astros only cheated in 2017. 

The players were granted immunity so why would they admit to 2017 and lie about 2018 and 2019?

 

To try to look like they stopped the cheating of their own accord

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12 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

Also if you are to believe the investigation, which i do, the Astros only cheated in 2017. 

The players were granted immunity so why would they admit to 2017 and lie about 2018 and 2019?

 

They've lied several times before, no reason for fans to trust anything they claim at this point.

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