Flyman75

Alex Bregman 2020 Outlook

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2 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

All I'm saying is that it's quite possible he's closer to Javier Baez then the player he's being drafted to be. I also think you're a bit naive if you don't think him knowing what pitches were being thrown didn't help him increase his HR totals in 2018 and 2019. In OBP leagues he's an absolute beast...in roto I'm not so sure. 

 

So you think the real Bregman (17% BB%, 12% K%) is closer to Baez (5% BB%, 28%)?

I don't like Bregman but that's ridiculous.

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5 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

So you think the real Bregman (17% BB%, 12% K%) is closer to Baez (5% BB%, 28%)?

I don't like Bregman but that's ridiculous.

 

Counting stat wise, yes I think he might be. I think Javier Baez's 2018 HR and RBI numbers are what I'm expecting from Bregman...and without the SBs. And Baez's strikeout and walks rates are really irrelevant because he finds a way to make it work. 

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3 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

All I'm saying is that it's quite possible he's closer to Javier Baez then the player he's being drafted to be. I also think you're a bit naive if you don't think him knowing what pitches were being thrown didn't help him increase his HR totals in 2018 and 2019. In OBP leagues he's an absolute beast...in roto I'm not so sure. 


Wasn’t 2017 the prime cheating season for Houston?

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31 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Wasn’t 2017 the prime cheating season for Houston?

 

They were all prime cheating season until they got caught!

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Guys that aren't even a fraction of the hitter that Bregman is are hitting 30 HRs. Should have no problem hitting 30-35, and no one is expecting 40.

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38 minutes ago, jspeco9 said:

Guys that aren't even a fraction of the hitter that Bregman is are hitting 30 HRs. Should have no problem hitting 30-35, and no one is expecting 40.

 

If he only hits 30-35 HRs and doesn't steal bases then he's not even going to come close to living up to his ADP for roto leagues. Like I said earlier, he's basically 2018 Baez without the steals. 

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17 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

If he only hits 30-35 HRs and doesn't steal bases then he's not even going to come close to living up to his ADP for roto leagues. Like I said earlier, he's basically 2018 Baez without the steals. 

Last year first two rounds how many players actually lived up to there ADP ? 

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I’ll take 30-35 HR from Bregman all day long... his walk rate and strike out rate make that gravy.  And if teams want to hit him and put him on base, I’m fine with that too, only helps improve his chances of coming around to score.

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Depending on draft position in the 1st round I would draft him. Not my first choice in the 1st but he'll do. 

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3 hours ago, twelve20 said:

I’ll take 30-35 HR from Bregman all day long... his walk rate and strike out rate make that gravy.  And if teams want to hit him and put him on base, I’m fine with that too, only helps improve his chances of coming around to score.

 

..and exactly how many fantasy points do you get for walks and strikeout rate in standard roto leagues? 

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5 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

..and exactly how many fantasy points do you get for walks and strikeout rate in standard roto leagues? 

 

Don't be that guy.  Plenty of people play in points leagues.  

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

Don't be that guy.  Plenty of people play in points leagues.  

Exactly. And even if K% and BB% aren't categories in 5x5 leagues, they still matter. Because Bregman has better plate discipline, that means he will reach base more often, resulting in additional runs. He will also have more chances to drive in runs. Runs and RBI are categories.

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6 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

..and exactly how many fantasy points do you get for walks and strikeout rate in standard roto leagues? 

 

1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

Don't be that guy.  Plenty of people play in points leagues.  

And OBP leagues...And I don't like the guy and wouldn't take him in the 1st round: I would in the 2nd if he were to drop

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6 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

Don't be that guy.  Plenty of people play in points leagues.  

 

Standard roto leagues are BY FAR the most common. I also think I've been pretty clear when I've criticized Bregman that it specifically applies to traditional leagues. And to the person who said strike out percentage and walk rate still matter, I understand what your saying, but over the past few years they haven't for someone like Javier Baez when it comes to accumulating counting stats. I'm also not sure we really know what type of player Bregman is because he was promoted right around when the whole cheating scandal began. My point is this is someone most people are drafting with confidence late in the first round and I don't quite understand why. 

 

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33 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Standard roto leagues are BY FAR the most common. I also think I've been pretty clear when I've criticized Bregman that it specifically applies to traditional leagues. And to the person who said strike out percentage and walk rate still matter, I understand what your saying, but over the past few years they haven't for someone like Javier Baez when it comes to accumulating counting stats. I'm also not sure we really know what type of player Bregman is because he was promoted right around when the whole cheating scandal began. My point is this is someone most people are drafting with confidence late in the first round and I don't quite understand why. 

 

Are you sure? You mention one other time 10 team leagues are the most common. Are we sure? 
 Last year in Bregman ended 21st in the standard 5x5 rotisserie league. Once upon a time I could go back in years to check but not since ESPN screwed us ... with there so called better format, 

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2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Are you sure? You mention one other time 10 team leagues are the most common. Are we sure? 
 Last year in Bregman ended 21st in the standard 5x5 rotisserie league. Once upon a time I could go back in years to check but not since ESPN screwed us ... with there so called better format, 

 

 I still think they are and don't get me started on the newish ESPN platform. It's amazing that a company in this day and age can find a way to regress with it's technology. Even the stupid stock logos are childish. 

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5 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

 I still think they are and don't get me started on the newish ESPN platform. It's amazing that a company in this day and age can find a way to regress with it's technology. Even the stupid stock logos are childish. 

 

They forgot to add a trading block FFS. 

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Not to mention Bregman‘s Exit velocity and hard hit % aren’t even impressive.

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54 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Not to mention Bregman‘s Exit velocity and hard hit % aren’t even impressive.


Bregman (2019)

Hard Hit% = 37.5

Exit Velocity = 89.3

Arenado (2019)

Hard Hit% = 37.4

Exit Velocity = 89.4


 

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1 hour ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Not to mention Bregman‘s Exit velocity and hard hit % aren’t even impressive.

Players with high percentile pulled FB over-achieve their stat cast metrics usually.

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20 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Players with high percentile pulled FB over-achieve their stat cast metrics usually.

Is he able to pull FB because he knows they are coming though :)

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On 2/21/2020 at 6:01 AM, Bigfische said:

For the record, the original +/- was 83.5. 

 

In 2019 the Mets led the league with 95 HBP.  The Reds and As would have also hit the over and the Cubs were close at 83. 7 total teams were 80 or above. So Vegas wise, it seems like a fair number. 

 

The Commish is going to make the umps toss out pitchers pretty quick. That will likely keep the number high, but cap any ridiculous #s.

Keep in mind the mets had McNeil, and his 21 hbp alone (ouch bro!), in there.  Im surprised the o/u wasn't higher given all the hype. 

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4 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Keep in mind the mets had McNeil, and his 21 hbp alone (ouch bro!), in there.  Im surprised the o/u wasn't higher given all the hype. 

many years ago Ron Hunt who set the MLB record for HBP in a season ... 50.  Was he the original Big Hurt

 

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I was 100% out on Bregman in my analysis to start the year. 

He's a first/second rounder that doesn't really steal. Pretty boring profile when you had guys like Tatis Jr, Turner, Lindor, Story, hell even Jose Ramirez there. Also Arenando is probably a head of Bregmann.

 

However, in the auctions I've done I've acquired him in 2 of my 6 leagues so far.

He's projected for $30 on Y! and has an avg of $37.1. I've been getting him around $31 and I feel that's a good value. I'm excited to say I'm "in" on one of the better hitters of last year, when I was previously out.

 

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19 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

I was 100% out on Bregman in my analysis to start the year. 

He's a first/second rounder that doesn't really steal. Pretty boring profile when you had guys like Tatis Jr, Turner, Lindor, Story, hell even Jose Ramirez there. Also Arenando is probably a head of Bregmann.

 

However, in the auctions I've done I've acquired him in 2 of my 6 leagues so far.

He's projected for $30 on Y! and has an avg of $37.1. I've been getting him around $31 and I feel that's a good value. I'm excited to say I'm "in" on one of the better hitters of last year, when I was previously out.

 

 

Just because the Astros cheated doesn't change the fact that they have a team full of good players.

I expect another good season from Bregman who has a pretty safe floor.

 

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